Afghanistan Second partial results were announced

[ComradePashtun]

Badlun, what do you know about Afghanistan, its politics and politicians?

[ComradePashtun]

Please don't flood the thread with childish questions. BA's responses are important.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

BA

I tend think exactly as you do.

Let me ask you another question. It seems that some Pakistanis would much prefer if Abdullah wins, what sense of purpose and opportunities him winning does provide to them?

I don't know - its a good question. I have not read anything recently that shows they have a horse in the race, have you?

My assumption would be that their thought processes go along this way:

Abdullah gets elected ---> Pashtun sentiments in Pakistan/FATA are challenged and the view that parsibanaan are now at the helm ---> Hope that there are enough people who say exactly what Khostai said above (and based on what I am hearing there are a lot of these) ---> Resume the prior policies of gaining dominance by taking a legitimate grievance of the dominant ethnic group but back whoever you assume is going to be to your benefit.---> NATO decides it wants little part in a civil war and vacates the area --> You are the dominant player in the game ---> You remove India from the equation

though on the other hand it might be that they now have their own internal insurgency issue and now view an Islamic oriented government as a threat as well.

To be frank, I have no idea why they would want Abdullah Abdullah in power since with Abdullah comes the baggage of Amrullah and his boys - and all of those people are reflexively going to take heavy aid and training from India...

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Thank you for the informative responses.

I dont know if they are informative - I am clueless on this group of contenders. In the prior Karzai decade I had more knowledge on what to expect because of the links our various families all have to one another, knowing Yama K. etc. Our networks were all the Pashtunabad crew that had shifted to Quetta back in the 80s.

My only view of Ghani comes from knowing Atmar's people and I am not sure how you feel but I have certain issues with Atmar and view him as a distasteful individual who was not punished properly for his war crimes. Dostum is a given, so we need not even touch upon him.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Can any one like Bostan please highlight the ethnic approach of Abdullah Abdullah? Does he call himself a pure Tajik or a Pashtun or a mixed one? Does he speaks Pashto in Kabul? In the debates on TV or other outlets of media, does he also speak Pashto? Has he ever talked of the promotion of Pashto in official circles?

I saw him speak the Eastern dialect on a voice of America interview. The rest of your questions appear to be answerable based on his affiliations previously unless something major has changed. Look also to the fact that the Wahdat guys threw their support to him... and remember who wahdat hates the most.

[Badlun]

Please don't flood the thread with childish questions. BA's responses are important.

Will my questions stop BA to post his remarks? Am I taking too much space that there will be no place for BA to comment?

I am not these days in Afghanistan and I need some one like Bost Bastan who lives there to comment on the language and ethnic approach of the future president of Afghanistan. This is important that if he, THESE DAYS, is not a Tajik racist then we should not fear that much as Afghanistan needs stability. If he is a balanced personality and can give due place to each language and people then he can be a successful leader of Afghanistan.

I am a realist and believe in more ground realities than theoretical speculations and far fetched ideas.

[ComradePashtun]

BA

There will be no such a thing as baggage such as Amrullah etc. since they will bd too involved in the abyss and instability if god forbid it unfolds inside Afghanistan.
Pakistanis would love to see the kind of dynamics you mentioned. That would a legitimate strategic concern for the stakeholders in Afghanistan and the U.S./NATO etc. I reckon.

[ComradePashtun]

People likr Amrullah are nothing by themselves. By the way he is a big mouth, believe me on that. I don't think too high of him as some do here.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Will my questions stop BA to post his remarks? Am I taking too much space that there will be no place for BA to comment?

I am not these days in Afghanistan and I need some one like Bost Bastan who lives there to comment on the language and ethnic approach of the future president of Afghanistan. This is important that if he, THESE DAYS, is not a Tajik racist then we should not fear that much as Afghanistan needs stability. If he is a balanced personality and can give due place to each language and people then he can be a successful leader of Afghanistan.

I am a realist and believe in more ground realities than theoretical speculations and far fetched ideas.

Badlun I dont know if its not fair to speculate....

Think about it from the aspect of the Americans -

1. If Afghanistan degrades like Iraq has then they have a huge problem - hence the need to ensure that their project doesnt get derailed. Civil conflict is just the thing to derail it.

2. I dont think that they ever seriously planned a zero option but apparently insiders in the beltway are ansy about a runoff because it may delay their BSA getting signed.

Just a few weeks ago you were here saying Ghani was a sure thing and a done deal - and this matters a lot because you were praising the electorial turn out saying it granted legitimacy to the election result... if the election result is contested and corruption charges are heaped on it that becomes a huge problem.

Another issue is that for the longest time the Pashtun claim, especially of Millet has been that we have the largest population base - while it might be argued that enough Pashtuns gave some vote to Abdullah, for instance in Urzogan - this calls Pashtun ascendancy based on population statistics into question. One cannot simultaneously accept that the election represents the southern ethnic block of Pashtuns but then make the excuse that the the win for Abdullah was a result of not enough of the south showing up. The only way to reconcile this is that if Abdullah got enough Pashtun votes, which is unlikely.

And look here:

http://www.iec.org.af/results/en/elections#

I have a hard time understanding how Abdullah bested Sherzai in Urzogan and Helmand.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

People likr Amrullah are nothing by themselves. By the way he is a big mouth, believe me on that. I don't think too high of him as some do here.

So how do you think this will play out?

[BarakzaiAbdali]

People likr Amrullah are nothing by themselves. By the way he is a big mouth, believe me on that. I don't think too high of him as some do here.

I agree, I read his Al-Jazeera editorial and found it sickening. I cannot understand how they give him the literary oxygen supply to publish his meanderings on what he thinks is wrong with Pashtuns. The reason people on here are impressed with him is that they for some self hating reason have also generated these conspiracy theories of Saudi ghosts whispering in the ear of every aggrieved Pashtun - as if no Pashtun on earth has the ability to view someone as occupying his home independent of any maddrassah input. As we can see from Ukraine and Russian Nationalism, it doesnt take a Saudi to get people hot and bothered about other people threatening one's way of life and land.

[Badlun]

BA
My candidate is Ghani but Afghanistan is larger and bigger than Ghani. If Abdullah gets elected and he is not a racist but a balanced Afghan who knows how to deliver and how to maintain justice, then for the sake of larger national interest I will accept him and will ask Ghani(personally known to me) to accept his defeat and wait for 5 years and prepare for the next elections.

No doubt there would have been rigging but so far the elections seem transparent and few cases are reported of rigging and corruption. Afghanistan is a nascent democracy and will take some time that we reach the standards of western democracy where everything is almost perfect.

[gadoonwal]

Will my questions stop BA to post his remarks? Am I taking too much space that there will be no place for BA to comment?

I am not these days in Afghanistan and I need some one like Bost Bastan who lives there to comment on the language and ethnic approach of the future president of Afghanistan. This is important that if he, THESE DAYS, is not a Tajik racist then we should not fear that much as Afghanistan needs stability. If he is a balanced personality and can give due place to each language and people then he can be a successful leader of Afghanistan.

I am a realist and believe in more ground realities than theoretical speculations and far fetched ideas.

Dr abdullah never shown any interest in pashtu or promoting pashtu language.
He can speak pashtu.I have seen him talking in pashtu but most of the time he talk dari.
Dari is his mother tongoue.During his time in the office he was planing to work on common dailect of farsi with iran.
He was part of N/A and is.
No doubt he is punjsheri .
He spend most of the time in northren afghanistan and could,nt reach to pashtun south.
I would say if he win the election then all people need to accept his win.
I do,nt know how he is leading in this great number.

About Ashraf Ghani so most pashtuns did,nt vote for him.
In the north the uzbiks voted for him.In eastren afghanistan he got some support.
In pashtun south and loy kandahar the pashtun vote was wasted.
IN any democracy majority rule and northreners won the election.
In the last election pashtuns got only 30% seats in the parlaiment.
pashtun area of Ghazni was represented by hazaras.
I hope this time pashtuns win more cus the election was peacefull.

If the election was free and fair then pashtuns must stop the blame game and accept abdullah as their new leader.
No one forced pashtuns to waste their vote for Rassoul,qaum,sayaf and abdullah.
They had a chance and they wasted.
Now everyone wait for next five years.
I do,nt understand why the tajiks and many pashtuns vote for a man with links to criminal N/A.
They wasted a great chance .Ghani was good for all the people of afghanistan.
He would a creat more jobs and bring peace.
Lets hope Abdullah do something.
good luck.

[khushal]

It is nearly impossible for Ghani to beat Abdullah since all but one of the candidates are Pashtun and the Pashtun vote would be split between the different Pashtun candidates. Its similar to the Bush/Gore/Green Party election that was held in the US back in 2000. Gore lost some of his vote base to the Green Party and Bush took the presidency because of that lost vote base.

In a runoff, Ghani can do it, but not in the first round unless he can stuff ballot boxes like Karzai did in the last election. So relax Khostai, you don't have to join the Taliban.

[Toramana]

Would the demographic factor play any role? Usually, when a person of minority group is ruling, he/she is usually mindful of the majority group grievances.