Taliban oppression of Afghans backfires

[Bengal_Tiger]

Afghan forces capture Taliban bastion in S. Afghanistan

English.news.cn 2015-02-07 21:50:51

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- Afghan security forces after three weeks of heavy operations have liberated Band-e- Timor area, a Taliban bastion and poppy hub in the southern Kandahar province, a senior security official in the province, Sultan Mohammad, said Saturday.

"Our security forces after three weeks of operations have entered Band-e-Timor and established government control there after 14 years, forcing Taliban militants to flee," Mohammad told Xinhua.

Located in Maiwand district, the densely populated Band-e-Timor had been a Taliban bastion and center of poppy production, heroin lab and transit route for smuggling of the menace abroad.

"A total of 13 Taliban insurgents including Mullah Shah Wali, the shadowy governor of Band-e-Timor, have been killed and 10 others injured during the operations," the official said, adding operations would continue till establishing law and order in the area.

Commenting on security forces casualties, Sultan Mohammad said one Afghan soldier has been killed.

Three heroin labs and 10 weapon caches have also been discovered and destroyed during the operations, the official further said.

Taliban militants have yet to make comment.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-02/07/c_133977643.htm

[Bengal_Tiger]

1. This area was apparently in Taliban control for 14 years i.e. since 9/11 when the Taliban were deposed.


2. It is in the heart of the Pashtun belt, where the Taliban enjoy support.


3. The Afghan National Army are only going to get stronger with increased support from:

- India
- China
- Russia


4. The Taliban may get weaker due to the weakening of their patron, Pakistan and perhaps stronger pressure on Pakistan e.g. from China to stop helping the Taliban.

Pakistan itself - in the form of Sartaj Aziz - has said the Taliban will never be able to regain control of the whole of Afghanistan.

Mr Aziz said in an interview that the Taliban cannot capture Afghanistan by force and that they would also be dangerous if they tried to militarily control the country.

“I think there is no possibility of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan again...

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/154356/china-offers-to-host-afghanistan-taliban-talks-paki-fm

Pakistani foreign advisor Sartaj Aziz has said the Taliban will never be able to rule Afghanistan again.


[MENTION=17582]Al-Afghani[/MENTION] [MENTION=1068]gadoonwal[/MENTION] [MENTION=1201]Toramana[/MENTION] [MENTION=223]JAMALUDEEN[/MENTION] [MENTION=4551]hamid954[/MENTION] [MENTION=1498]ComradePashtun[/MENTION] [MENTION=1444]Azmal[/MENTION] [MENTION=303]kunar1990[/MENTION] [MENTION=17579]Loy Afghanistan[/MENTION]

[Bengal_Tiger]

Afghan Security Forces have captured an area in a region the Taliban enjoyed strong support.

[Al-Afghani]

Sartaj Aziz is right. He knows using violence would bring more refugees, crime, drugs, weapons into his country. That's why Pakistan is pushing for a power sharing solution, to co-opt the Talibs into the Afghan government. This wouldn't be possible if Karzai was still president, though.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Sartaj Aziz is right. He knows using violence would bring more refugees, crime, drugs, weapons into his country. That's why Pakistan is pushing for a power sharing solution, to co-opt the Talibs into the Afghan government. This wouldn't be possible if Karzai was still president, though.

1. I think it's safe to say that even Aziz is saying they can't "regain Afghanistan" that it means according to him the Taliban cannot take Kabul. In most conflicts whoever controls the capital is usually then the internationally recognized government.

2. If the Taliban cannot take the Uzbek/Tajik north, nor Kabul and even some of the Pashtun areas that means the Afghan National government is indeed a functioning national government.

This means it can work to develop the areas that it controls which would probably be most urban centres (Kabul has shot up from 2 million a few years back to 6 million now, so around 16% of the entire Afghan population).

The resultant increase in education, living standards, exposure to the wider world would lead to a decrease in support for the Taliban.

3. There are many countries where the national government does not have control over large parts of its "territory".

- Burma, large parts of it are ruled by rebel groups.
- Georgia, parts of it are ruled by ethnic groups (south Ossetia, Abkhazia).
- Colombia, large parts of it are ruled by FARC rebels.
- Moldava, a large part of it is ruled by Russian-backed Slavs.
- Azerbaijan, large part of it is controlled by Armenians.
- Some of the African states.


Despite this they are recognized in varying levels as relatively normal states and there is foreign investment coming in to them.

Iraq, where ISIS are based, is predicted to have the highest rate of economic growth in the world (for any economy over $100 billion) by 2019.

More than the Afghan National Army the biggest enemies of the Taliban are:

- Education
- Economic growth and development
- Exposure to the wider world and its progress and diversity.


4. I can foresee the Kabul government trying to accommodate the Taliban and even then the more reasonable elements amongst them but it will never capitulate to them.

They at worst will be what the TTP is to Pakistan or at least an ETA, PKK style irritant for the Afghan state.

As long as they do not deter foreign investment in to Afghanistan and the utilization of its potentially $3 trillion worth of mineral resources that is the main thing, even if they are still a nuisance and irritant.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Afghan Cyber Army claims suspending Pro-Taliban website “www.toorabora.net”

By KHAAMA PRESS - Wed Feb 11 2015, 8:37 am



ACAA hacker group that call themselves Afghan Cyber Army (ACA) claims to have suspended “www.toorabora.net”, a Pro-Taliban website which was publishing news, articles and other materials of Taliban.
The website is now not accessible.
ACA on its social media page has threatened to do the same to other terrorist internet pages.
“Other terrorists! Wait, you are next.”, this is the message they have put on their social media page.
AC Army claims to be fighting terrorists in the cyber for Afghanistan.
They have a slogan on their social media page “Live For Afghanistan or Leave Afghanistan!”
They are claiming to have been united against the enemies of Afghanistan.
A slogan on their social media page reads “We Never forgive never forget never spare. we are Afghan Cyber Army (ACA) standing united against enemies….”
ACA claims that they are not related to any private or governmental organizations.
They have written on their social media page that ACA members are not dependent to any economical or security promises.
Afghan Cyber Army (ACA) claim to have been voluntarily united to defend Afghanistan in the Cyber.
They have written on their social media page that the identity of their members is secured.
In 2013 Stars and Stripes, a US media outlet published a story in which the group had claimed to have defaced around 300 Pakistani Government and Business websites.
Stars and Stripes states that Pakistan’s foreign ministry did not respond to the request for comment on this report.

Stars and Stripes also said that they interviewed Afghan Cyber Army who told Starts and Stripes that they are working out of Afghanistan.

http://www.khaama.com/aca-suspended-taliban-website-www-toorabora-net-29048

[Bengal_Tiger]

Nearly 700 Attacks Occurred in January: TOLOnews Security Report

Wednesday, 11 February 2015 19:11
Last Updated on Wednesday, 11 February 2015 19:15
Written by Syed Sharif Amiri


TOLOnews' monthly security report indicates that 696 insecurity events were recorded across the country in January; the month after the Afghan troops took over complete security responsibility of the country.

Based on the report, 1,324 armed oppositions, 171 Afghan forces and 108 civilians were killed during the first month of 2015 after NATO forces formally ended their 13-year combat mission.

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) conducted 315 anti-insurgent operations during the month, the report noted, adding that ANSF detained a number of insurgents along with seizing arms and explosives during 203 raids.

"We prepared this report based on the statements of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), Ministry of Defense (MoD), Ministry of Interior (MoI), TOLOnews reports and the desk monitoring other media outlets," said TOLOnews researcher Abbas Hussaini.

During the period, the insurgents launched different types of attacks 36 times with nine suicide bombings. However, most of the casualties occurred to ANSF resulted from roadside mines.

The report detailed that 800 people were injured in a month with most of them civilians.

"Such studies are helpful to the security institutions," a University Professor Mohammad Amin Haidari said. "This shows the people want their safety to be assured and the security agencies should take such reports serious."

According to the report, southern Kandahar province, once the Taliban's center during their regime, suffered most of these insecurity incidents while Panjshir, Daikundi and Bamyan provinces were recorded with zero insecurity incidents.

In addition, the report indicated that 85 militants joined the peace process in eight events during the last month.

http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/18170-nearly-700-attacks-occurred-in-january-tolonews-security-report

Let's analyse this.

1.

If the current level of attacks is maintained then 700 x 12 (i.e 700 attacks this month x 12 months of the year) would amount to 8,400 attacks in a year.

The 700 attacks in the past month amount to less than 24 attacks a day.

That's an attack every hour.


2. The current level of casualties if maintained would mean 1,324 Taliban x 12 = almost 15,900 Taliban dead in one year versus 2,000 + ANA (Afghan National Army) soldiers.


3. That is if things carried on at the current rate (and if these figures really are true, other articles say 100 Afghan soldiers die a week) but more important is the trajectory, will the ANA get stronger or weaker and will the Taliban get stronger or weaker.


Afghan aerial power to increase.

The Afghan military are set to increase their military power including their aerial power e.g. in the form of anti-insurgency Super Tucano planes.



Super Tucano with arsenal.


The Afghan military is also set to expand its fleet of MD 530F helicopters by x5 from the current 5 to 25 with the addition of another 20 given by the US.



MD 530F.



The future?

No one can say what will happen in the future. Will Afghanistan continue as it is now, with a relatively weak central government in Kabul and large parts of the country under Taliban control?

Even if that is the case that means the Taliban cannot retard the growth of areas such as Herat for example or the Tajik/Uzbek north.

They may still control large rural areas but in real terms that doesn't mean that much as the factories, industries and major urban centres would be under the control of the national government.

On a very human level if under 200,000 Afghan men die in the next decade from fighting (which is possible given current rates of attrition) and times that by 6 (i.e. parents, 3 siblings) that would mean 1.4 Afghans dead or with an immediate relative dead.

This is not at all something to look forward to.

However insha'Allah the Taliban will be contained, if not defeated and it won't get to that.

Kurdish fighters in Kobani have essentially defeated ISIS, Algeria defeated Salafists in the 1990s and Afghanistan can do the same.

[Bengal_Tiger]

AFGHAN MILITARY BUILDING UP THEIR STRENGTH.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Suicide vests seized in Paktika

By KHAAMA PRESS - Thu Feb 12 2015, 4:19 pm



Explosive vest

Afghan National Security forces (ANSF) have seized two suicide vests and other terrorist materials from a vehicle during operations in Paktika Province.
Security officials told reporters today that four magnetic bombs were also recovered from the Corolla vehicle seized in the jurisdiction of Mata Khan District.
Security officials said that terrorists planned to take these materials to capital Kabul for attacks.

This report is published a day after Afghan National Security Forces announced seizing over 500 kilograms of explosive materials in Paktika Province.

A statement issued by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) stated that the explosives materials were seized from depots of Haqqani terrorist network in Jabbarkhil area of Urgon District.
NDS statement further stated that they also found 50 pairs of military suits, 49 anti-vehicle landmines and other terrorist materials in these depots.
Haqqani network is blamed for several deadly terrorist attacks in different parts of Afghanistan.
A suicide attacker who was assigned by the group carried out a deadly attack in Yahyakhil District of Paktika Province last year killing at least 61 people.
Over 50 other people were also wounded in the explosion.

http://www.khaama.com/suicide-vests-seized-in-paktika-29057

- The Afghan Security Forces have clearly infiltrated and penetrated the anti-Afghan terrorist groups operating in the country.

- Each time they arrest a terrorist they also gain more and more intelligence on what is going on.

- The Afghan Security Forces were able to organize relatively peaceful national elections and the Afghan economy is growing. The Taliban have little control of major urban centres.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Taliban commander among 11 militants killed in Afghanistan

IANS | Kabul February 13, 2015 Last Updated at 18:58 IST


Afghan security forces Friday killed 11 Taliban militants, including a senior commander, in the restive southern Helmand province, the country's interior ministry said in a statement released here.

"Units of national police backed by the army launched operations in parts of Nad Ali district this morning. The operations have left 11 Taliban rebels including key commander Mohammad Agha dead," Xinhua news agency quoted the statement as saying.

Six more militants have been injured during the operations, the statement added.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/taliban-commander-among-11-militants-killed-in-afghanistan-115021301584_1.html

Afghanistan's security forces are clearing large parts of the country from anti-government Taliban forces and are expected to receive more anti-insurgency aircraft which will weaken the Taliban even more.

[Bengal_Tiger]

50 Taliban Militants Killed In Joint Operations Afghanistan

2/11/2015 7:38 AM ET

50 armed Taliban militants were killed, two wounded and five others were arrested by Afghan security forces in a series of anti-terrorism joint operations in past 24 hours, Afghanistan's Ministry of Interior Affairs said on Wednesday.

Afghan National Police, Army and NDS took part in the operations, conducted in Takhar, Kunduz, Zabul, Uruzgan, Logar, Paktiya, Badghis and Helmand provinces. During these operations, police discovered and confiscated light and heavy rounds ammunition and 11 different types of IEDs. Also, police discovered and defused two different types of IEDs placed by enemies of Afghanistan for destructive activities in Balkh and Herat provinces.

http://www.rttnews.com/2455001/50-taliban-militants-killed-in-joint-operations-afghanistan.aspx?type=pn

[Bengal_Tiger]

US reportedly increases secret raids against Afghanistan insurgents
Media Sources // Friday, 13 February 2015 01:28 //






Feb. 12, 2015: Afghanistan National Army officers march during a graduation ceremony at a training center in Herat, west of Kabul. Around 1, 200 national army officers graduated after receiving a 3 month training program in Herat.

U.S. Special Forces soldiers and their Afghan allies have undertaken an increasing number of night raids targeting Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, despite Washington formally declaring an end to combat operations late last year, according to a published report.




The New York Times reports that the increased raids are partially the result of intelligence seized in October of last year, when U.S. and Afghan commandos came upon a laptop computer with files detailing terror operations in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. Military officials tell the paper that the information in the files could be as significant as what was found on a computer in Usama bin Laden's Pakistan compound after the terror leader was killed by Navy SEALs in 2011.

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/us-news/item/829124-us-reportedly-increases-secret-raids-against-afghanistan-insurgents

[Bengal_Tiger]

That night the Afghans and Americans got their man, Abu Bara al-Kuwaiti. They also came away with what officials from both countries say was an even bigger prize: a laptop computer and files detailing Qaeda operations on both sides of the border.

American military officials said the intelligence seized in the raid was possibly as significant as the information found in the computer and documents of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, after members of the Navy SEALs killed him in 2011.

In the months since, the trove of intelligence has helped fuel a significant increase in night raids by American Special Operations forces and Afghan intelligence commandos, Afghan and American officials said.





....

The raids appear to have targeted a broad cross section of Islamist militants. They have hit both Qaeda and Taliban operatives, going beyond the narrow counterterrorism mission that Obama administration officials had said would continue after the formal end of American-led combat operations last December.





On Saturday, coalition officials announced that a “precision strike resulted in the death of two individuals threatening the force” in the Achin district of eastern Afghanistan.

Two days later, the coalition carried out what it described as another precision strike that killed “eight individuals threatening the force” in Helmand Province, in southern Afghanistan. Although the coalition would not say who exactly was killed, Afghan and American officials and tribal elders in Helmand said that the dead included Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim, a former Taliban commander and Guantánamo Bay detainee who recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, the terrorist group also known as ISIS or ISIL.





Afghan and American officials said the raids over the past few months had been carried out by the elite commandos of the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s main spy agency, and members of a mix of American military Special Operations units, such as Navy SEALs and Army Rangers, and paramilitary officers from the C.I.A.

The National Directorate of Security said it had killed Mr. Kuwaiti, the man in the mountain village in October, and claimed credit for seizing the laptop.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/asia/data-from-seized-computer-fuels-a-surge-in-us-raids-on-al-qaeda.html

*This is being seen as a major achievement for the Afghan Security Forces in their war against extremists and insurgents.

I can see that Afghanistan could be the next Algeria, i.e. the next major Muslim country to defeat a large "Islamist" (so-called) insurgency.

Good going NDS!

[Bengal_Tiger]

Last year:

The Taliban leadership knows it cannot win the war in Afghanistan and is prepared to accept peace with the Afghan government, but only if the militant group plays a prominent role in the country's future, according to an interview with an alleged senior Taliban commander conducted by a former high-ranking diplomat...

In the preview published on the New Statesmen's website, the Taliban commander says it would take "some kind of divine intervention for the Taliban to win this war" and calls al Qaeda a "plague" on Afghanistan...

"The Taliban capturing Kabul is a very distant prospect. Any Taliban leader expecting to be able to capture Kabul is making a grave mistake. Nevertheless, the leadership also knows that it cannot afford to acknowledge this weakness. To do so would undermine the morale of Taliban personnel. The leadership knows the truth -- that they cannot prevail over the power they confront."

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/taliban-commander-taliban-win-afghan-war-report/story?id=16753203

This was last year and the ANA (Afghan National Army) is only going to get stronger, plus China is involved in Afghanistan more now.



[MENTION=17582]Al-Afghani[/MENTION]

[Al-Afghani]

In 2001, a few hundred US special forces and thousands of ragtag Northern Alliance fighters defeated the Taliban before the end of the year. They haven't recovered since, as evident by the total lack of Taliban control over the population centers. And I don't see them regaining lost territory in the near future, which requires a conventional fighting force and can be decimated by US or Afghan air power.