Trump considers total troop withdrawal in afghanistan as strategists struggle to comb

[maneatinglizard]

Since the Trumps presidency with its hands off approach, the NA warlords have been sidelined and are currently crying in Mazar.

Abdullah Abdullah is still the CEO of the country, and a bunch of Northern Alliance leaders still have a lot of power.

Gulbadin is back in the country, and has a lot of support, even if Hizb hasn't done anything in a long time.

There are also the new warlord-types who have consolidated power in their locales, like Gen. Abdul Raziq.

The country is still largely ruled by local strongmen and warlords. Just because the Coalition for the Salvation of Afghanistan hasn't amounted to anything yet, doesn't mean the warlords have lost their hold on the country.

Dostom cant even enter the country. This is a different situation from the 90's.

And yet he still has tons of support, as well as alliances with powerful men. If he really wanted to get back into the country I doubt he'd stay away for long. He's likely trying to gauge how much support he can muster outside of his strongholds.

In the 90's, Dostom betrayed Najib and gave Kabul to Masoud which is what triggered the fragmentation of the Afghan Army along ethnic lines and the collapse of the Afghan State.

That's not what happened. The government began collapsing as soon as the Soviets ended support. In fact, the beginning of the collapse was already happening before that, as some big losses to the Mujahideen (like Khost at the hands of Hizb and their allies) crushed the morale of the Afghan Army. Massoud's involvement in the war is greatly exaggerated by Western media as he had a great relationship with them. Dostum and Massoud's capture of Kabul was merely a formality. There was no way Najib was going to stay in power at that point.

And just like then, the current Afghan government and army are completely dependent on foreign aid. Then it was Russia, now it's the US, but in either case the government will fall whenever the payments stop coming in.

Khostai is correct. Political Islam and Sharia are not a solution. Rather would lead to greater disaster. A good solution would be for all to sit together and decide what is in the interest of the people.

If Sharia wasn't a solution it wouldn't have worked for 1300 years. You talk about "the interests of the people," but would just as soon reject the people if they decide they want Sharia.

[khushal]

That's not what happened. The government began collapsing as soon as the Soviets ended support. In fact, the beginning of the collapse was already happening before that, as some big losses to the Mujahideen (like Khost at the hands of Hizb and their allies) crushed the morale of the Afghan Army. Massoud's involvement in the war is greatly exaggerated by Western media as he had a great relationship with them. Dostum and Massoud's capture of Kabul was merely a formality. There was no way Najib was going to stay in power at that point.

And just like then, the current Afghan government and army are completely dependent on foreign aid. Then it was Russia, now it's the US, but in either case the government will fall whenever the payments stop coming in.


.

While Kabul has always depended on outside Aid, ending the Aid did not always result in ending the State. The problem was that Najib was too obsessed with his hatred for the Pakis and would have rather destroyed Afghanistan rather than accept paki influence. As soon as he realized that his demise was close, he should have acted quickly to try to prevent the coming civil war that was going to completely destroy the country. But he gave too much power to Dostum and any idiot can see that a Dostum or Masoud gov was going to bring disaster because Pashtuns would have never accepted it and historically, without pashtun support, it doesn't end well.

[toughpashtun]

[MENTION=19985]maneatinglizard[/MENTION] and [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION]

One opinion is that Massoud was actually a Soviet ally during their occupation , while pretending to be a Mujahideen leader.

[khushal]

[MENTION=19985]maneatinglizard[/MENTION] and [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION]

One opinion is that Massoud was actually a Soviet ally during their occupation , while pretending to be a Mujahideen leader.

He did not fight the Soviets, he was more obsessed with fighting Hezb forces which is why Dostum was more inclined towards giving Kabul to him rather than Hezb which was paki friendly. The problem is that in Afghanistan, you either accept southern(Moghul then British and now Paki) influence or Northern (Russian) influence. Economics play a huge part in this, Afghanistan's economy has depended more on its southern neighbor than its northern neighbor.

[toughpashtun]

He did not fight the Soviets, he was more obsessed with fighting Hezb forces which is why Dostum was more inclined towards giving Kabul to him rather than Hezb which was paki friendly. The problem is that in Afghanistan, you either accept southern(Moghul then British and now Paki) influence or Northern (Russian) influence. Economics play a huge part in this, Afghanistan's economy has depended more on its southern neighbor than its northern neighbor.

You mean he did not fight soviets at all? He was just pretending all along?Or you mean that he did fight them but his focus was against hezb/hekmatyar?

[khushal]

According to CIA declassified info, they suspected he had struck deals with the Soviets which is why they stopped funding him in the early 80's.

[Friends of Baloch]

According to CIA declassified info, they suspected he had struck deals with the Soviets which is why they stopped funding him in the early 80's.

Doing deals is different from being 'allies', which is what the other fellow before wrongly inferred vis-a-vis Massoud and the Soviets. They were not allies, lol. Even any idiot that was alive at that time could see that.

The CIA did deals with the IRA, all while America is the closest ally of Britain. Iran did deals with Israel during the Iran-Iraq war while not recognizing Israel's statehood, ISIS and the Syrian regime have sold oil to each other, etc etc etc

Its war, people do deals, even adversaries. That's just reality.

If Massoud did deals with the Soviets, Pakis, Americans or anyone else, it was because he was shrewd enough to do so. Thats why he was a suvivor of that war and the DRA wasnt.

[Firdousi]

Doing deals is different from being 'allies', which is what the other fellow before wrongly inferred vis-a-vis Massoud and the Soviets. They were not allies, lol. Even any idiot that was alive at that time could see that.

The CIA did deals with the IRA, all while America is the closest ally of Britain. Iran did deals with Israel during the Iran-Iraq war while not recognizing Israel's statehood, ISIS and the Syrian regime have sold oil to each other, etc etc etc

Its war, people do deals, even adversaries. That's just reality.

If Massoud did deals with the Soviets, Pakis, Americans or anyone else, it was because he was shrewd enough to do so. Thats why he was a suvivor of that war and the DRA wasnt.

Most of Pashtuns have an irrational hatred toward Massoud. It doesn't surprise me at all after all he humiliated them so many times that they had to sell the country to Pakistan in order to corner the guy. Pashtuns always brag about how brave and good warriors they are. Massoud proved how wrong that is. While Massoud had the best armed and organized troops, Pashtuns have always been a mess, unable to think strategically. Massoud would have won the war if it wasn't for its manpower shortage and solid access to weapons and the rest of the world (back then we relied 100% on Pakistan, so whoever had good relationship with Pakis had the upper hand no matter how useless or barbaric they were)

Its a fact that Pashtun movements and parties such as Taliban or Hezb Islami are willing to accept Punjabi rule over Tajik rule. Its hilarious.

[Firdousi]

Afghan government is on the brink of collapse. But the Taliban are not in any better condition. Their movement is in disarray too. Since the death of Omar was announced by the government, the group has split in several branches. The raise of ISIS which is mainly former TTP and hardcore Afghan Taliban militants its also a huge threat to their movement (Taliban are and will always be a Pashtun rural militia, while ISIS is a panislamic movement that can attract people from non Pashtun ethnic groups)

What will happen once the government collapses? Who knows. My personal opinion is a scenario like Iraq, with the Taliban taking over Pashtun provinces just like ISIS took over the Sunni provinces. Thats a given. But I just wonder whats going to happen after that. Will the international community step in like in Iraq and with the support of ANA and non Pashtun militias push them back like in Iraq? Or will the Taliban take over most of the country (highly unlikely)? Some people here claim that the Taliban will even capture Kabul. I find that so hard to believe basically because I know very well that there are more than 10000 militias heavily armed from Shamali just around the city. Its just impossible.

In general its safe to say it doesn't really matter who is going to win this war. In the long term both, the Afghan Government and the Taliban are a complete failure. So no matter who wins, after a decade or two, they will eventually evolve or forced to change. Mark my words.

[maneatinglizard]

[MENTION=19985]maneatinglizard[/MENTION] and [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION]

One opinion is that Massoud was actually a Soviet ally during their occupation , while pretending to be a Mujahideen leader.

He had agreements and alliances with the Soviets. There's no denying that fact at this point.

See, for example:

400 Bad Request

According to the generals, the most notable success for Soviet intelligence units was the recruitment of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the venerated commander and media-icon of the Panjshir. Beginning in 1980, Massoud signed a series of agreements that spanned the entire decade of war. Line-item details of the agreements reveal that Massoud and his IOAP detachments contracted to allow Soviet re-supply vehicles unhindered passage along the Salang thoroughfare and provide protection for them as they transited the highway, thereby insulating them from attack by other mujahidin groups. According to General A.A. Liakhovskii, Massoud often resorted to violence to deter other mujahiddin groups from attacking Soviet targets.

There were a number of Zazai Pashtuns in Jamiat Islami, and they all corroborate this too.

Massoud did a great job fostering a heroic image through his connections with French media, but he was a traitor through and through.

[maneatinglizard]

He did not fight the Soviets, he was more obsessed with fighting Hezb forces which is why Dostum was more inclined towards giving Kabul to him rather than Hezb which was paki friendly. The problem is that in Afghanistan, you either accept southern(Moghul then British and now Paki) influence or Northern (Russian) influence. Economics play a huge part in this, Afghanistan's economy has depended more on its southern neighbor than its northern neighbor.

I don't agree that accepting influence is a permanent necessity. It happens because Afghanistan is a total mess, and can't stand on its own. But that's because of the continued invasions Afghanistan has had to fend off for the last few centuries. The Durrani empire did not require influence from the north or south, and the same could happen if Afghanistan had an opportunity to actually get things together.

You mean he did not fight soviets at all? He was just pretending all along?Or you mean that he did fight them but his focus was against hezb/hekmatyar?

He made agreements with the Russians that lasted till the end of the war. These were made early in the war, but before that he did fight against them.

Doing deals is different from being 'allies', which is what the other fellow before wrongly inferred vis-a-vis Massoud and the Soviets. They were not allies, lol. Even any idiot that was alive at that time could see that.

The CIA did deals with the IRA, all while America is the closest ally of Britain. Iran did deals with Israel during the Iran-Iraq war while not recognizing Israel's statehood, ISIS and the Syrian regime have sold oil to each other, etc etc etc

Its war, people do deals, even adversaries. That's just reality.

If Massoud did deals with the Soviets, Pakis, Americans or anyone else, it was because he was shrewd enough to do so. Thats why he was a suvivor of that war and the DRA wasnt.

If you look up the nature of his deals with the Soviets, I don't see how you could call them anything other than allies. He fought against Mujahideen to ensure the safety of Soviet convoys.

The Soviets were even considering splitting off north Afghanistan into Tajikstan and making him the head of this "Greater Tajikistan."

Most of Pashtuns have an irrational hatred toward Massoud. It doesn't surprise me at all after all he humiliated them so many times that they had to sell the country to Pakistan in order to corner the guy. Pashtuns always brag about how brave and good warriors they are. Massoud proved how wrong that is. While Massoud had the best armed and organized troops, Pashtuns have always been a mess, unable to think strategically. Massoud would have won the war if it wasn't for its manpower shortage and solid access to weapons and the rest of the world (back then we relied 100% on Pakistan, so whoever had good relationship with Pakis had the upper hand no matter how useless or barbaric they were)

Its a fact that Pashtun movements and parties such as Taliban or Hezb Islami are willing to accept Punjabi rule over Tajik rule. Its hilarious.

Come on bro, don't turn this into a Pashtun vs Tajik thing. I know Tajiks who hate him because of his politicking with the Soviets, and the Pashtuns I know always praised the quality of his fighters, as well as Panjshiris in general. You do a disservice to us by claiming we just dislike him because of his ethnicity.

Your argument doesn't even make sense, as you claim on one hand that Massoud had the best armed troops, but then say he didn't win the war because of a lack of access to weapons. How could his failures be blamed on weaponry when you accept that he had better arms than everyone else?

[khushal]

Most of Pashtuns have an irrational hatred toward Massoud. It doesn't surprise me at all after all he humiliated them so many times that they had to sell the country to Pakistan in order to corner the guy. Pashtuns always brag about how brave and good warriors they are. Massoud proved how wrong that is. While Massoud had the best armed and organized troops, Pashtuns have always been a mess, unable to think strategically. Massoud would have won the war if it wasn't for its manpower shortage and solid access to weapons and the rest of the world (back then we relied 100% on Pakistan, so whoever had good relationship with Pakis had the upper hand no matter how useless or barbaric they were)

Its a fact that Pashtun movements and parties such as Taliban or Hezb Islami are willing to accept Punjabi rule over Tajik rule. Its hilarious.

Mossoud was as much a failure as Hekmatyar, Dostum, Najib and all those warlord idiots who were out only for themselves. All of those mentioned would rather destroy Afghanistan rather than have the other guy have it and they all humiliated the people of Afghanistan by destroying their homes. He could not keep Kabul safe nor bring any order to it. Under his watch the cities was completely destroyed, women raped and homes looted.

There is no irrationality to hate those men. They did damage to millions of people and strengthened outside leverage over the country.

[khushal]

Doing deals is different from being 'allies', which is what the other fellow before wrongly inferred vis-a-vis Massoud and the Soviets. They were not allies, lol. Even any idiot that was alive at that time could see that.

The CIA did deals with the IRA, all while America is the closest ally of Britain. Iran did deals with Israel during the Iran-Iraq war while not recognizing Israel's statehood, ISIS and the Syrian regime have sold oil to each other, etc etc etc

Its war, people do deals, even adversaries. That's just reality.

If Massoud did deals with the Soviets, Pakis, Americans or anyone else, it was because he was shrewd enough to do so. Thats why he was a suvivor of that war and the DRA wasnt.

It was in his interest to do so but he was a Jamiati which had an ideology. He went against his ideology for his interest. We can say he was a hypocrite.

And he was not shrewd. A shrewd person would have fooled the CIA and the KGB by playing both sides but the CIA caught him at the early stages of his game. All his prodigies are the most corrupt people in today's Afghanistan.

[khushal]

The Durrani empire did not require influence from the north or south, and the same could happen if Afghanistan had an opportunity to actually get things together.

The Durrani empire rose because the Moghuls and Persians were in disarray. Today the Pakis and Iran are Strong. Afghanistan has much potential. It has mineral resources and can block water to Pakistan and Iran but you need a strong national gov to make that happen. Treasonous Thieves run the gov who sell everything pennies on the dollar just to fill their pockets.

[khushal]

Massoud did a great job fostering a heroic image through his connections with French media, but he was a traitor through and through.

It was French media and Unicol who made him a hero. Unicol wanted contracts, specifically in the North and they thought Massoud would be the one who could deliver them. Later when the Taliban took over, Unicol approached Karzai and his father's influence within the Taliban to make deals happen. It was this connection that propelled Karzai to become President during Americas occupation.