Taliban's Mehsud faction severs ties with TTP

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

But TTP has faced similar disasters before.
1- In 2008, bhittani group under haji turkestan parted away from TTP and clashes between two continued till operation in south waziristan, 2089.
2-In early 2009, baitullah, maulvi nazir and hafiz gul bahadur formed 'council of united mujahideen'.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/02/waziristan_taliban_a.php

This alliance fell apart within months.
3- In early 2009, a mehsud faction under Qari zain parted away from TTP and joined hands with haji turkestan.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qari_Zainuddin_Mehsud

There are other numerous cases of small infightings and desertions in TTP since their formation. One shouldnt be hasty in declaring victory. This war is far from over, pakistan is unable to do some thing about TTP's stretagic depth i.e kunar and nuristan. Pakistan declared in 2009 that they have cleared south waziristan but TTP is still ambushing security forces there. The nature of durand line is such, that TTP cant be cornered like tamil tigers. This war is of decades, statistics are meaningless as there are always ebbs and flows in this kind of warfare

But mehsud are the backbone of TTP,As per Express news today.60% of the fighter in TTP are Mehsud.

By the Collapse of TTP i don't mean that the insurgency will end completely but reduced to non existing.

I hope you do remember Last year May with blast almost everyday while this may we hardly had any major blast on civilians except the ambush attacks against the security force's.

My Point is TTP will never gets its strength of 2009-11.Bomb Blast might again get increased in the months to come but there strength is reduced to historic low.

In the past they only had a common enemy as the Pakistani civilian(Mostly pashtun) and army and today they now even have enemies among them.

[tripledouble]

Paki special ops? Lol. Coward paki soldiers do not have the guts to conduct ground commando actions in hostile territories. Thats why they rely on long range heavy artillary shelling, tanks, jets and gunship heli shelling in FATA, no matter what amount of collateral damages are they inflicting on villages.

Every military has a special ops branch and so does Pakistan, so i don't doubt their capabilities because i've got family members in the army and was even a cadet myself.

Paki army is surely responding to TTP's presence in kunar and nuristan, by artillary shelling on Afghan villages , killing irrelevant innocents.

Well unfortunately that is part of war, i mean what else can the army do if TTP are blowing up mosques,schools and marketplaces

After huge slaughter of SSG in swat operations of 2007 and 2009, they are no longer considered effective. Pakis have adopted rather easy way, tackle the enemy in conventional way, bomb them and their civilians from distance and air.

Desperate times call for desperate measures and the swat operation was a success overall.

Interestingly indian army show more guts than paki army. Every time they face some lashkar e taiba militants in kashmir, they kill them through gun battles instead of seeking help from air force or gunship helicopters.

Nobody in their right mind would refer to Kashmiri freedom fighters as 'militants', most of their fighters are locals though they did recieve help from Pakistan through the 90s, and the Indian army is actually made up a bunch losers that killed over 90,000 innocent people.

I remember in 2008, afridi taliban captured kohat tunnel from army. Instead of dealing with them through commando action, they used misiles and shellings from cobra gunship, destroying the inside of costly kohat tunnel.

Well what's the point of not using state-of-the-art of weapons if you have them; Pakistan army is superior to TTP, so it's obvious that they're going to use whatever gives them an edge, it's all fair.

[Smarty]

But mehsud are the backbone of TTP,As per Express news today.60% of the fighter in TTP are Mehsud.

By the Collapse of TTP i don't mean that the insurgency will end completely but reduced to non existing.

I hope you do remember Last year May with blast almost everyday while this may we hardly had any major blast on civilians except the ambush attacks against the security force's.

My Point is TTP will never gets its strength of 2009-11.Bomb Blast might again get increased in the months to come but there strength is reduced to historic low.

In the past they only had a common enemy as the Pakistani civilian(Mostly pashtun) and army and today they now even have enemies among them.

Not all mehsuds have separated from TTP, only sajna mehsud group who now has named himself khalid mehsud. It was predictable from TTP infighting, that sajna has switched to army's side. We dont know what exactly is strength of sajna group.
If you listen to fazlullah, he said that TTP would only attack military, so thats why recently mostly FC and army is getting attaced by them . During negotiation phase, ISI tried to disrupt talks process, by doing blasts on civilians in peshawer through its own militants. We discovered that other than TTP, there are some other groups, who only attack civilians. E.g that mast gul, who did blasts on peshawer cinema, was once member of hizb ul mujahideen, which is still linked with ISI along with LeT. TTP are no angels, they mercilessly kill their critics and opponents even if they are civilians but ISI is far more dark and sinister than them.

[tripledouble]

Not all mehsuds have separated from TTP, only sajna mehsud group who now has named himself khalid mehsud. It was predictable from TTP infighting, that sajna has switched to army's side. We dont know what exactly is strength of sajna group.
If you listen to fazlullah, he said that TTP would only attack military, so thats why recently mostly FC and army is getting attaced by them . During negotiation phase, ISI tried to disrupt talks process, by doing blasts on civilians in peshawer through its own militants. We discovered that other than TTP, there are some other groups, who only attack civilians. E.g that mast gul, who did blasts on peshawer cinema, was once member of hizb ul mujahideen, which is still linked with ISI along with LeT. TTP are no angels, they mercilessly kill their critics and opponents even if they are civilians but ISI is far more dark and sinister than them.

lolol is no more sinister than any other intel agency in the world; but the TTP and it's related groups are responsible for over 95% of attacks in Pakistan, and Mullah Radio is a liar, his people carried out the attack on the court in islamabad killing innocents..

[Bengal_Tiger]

Here are 3 possible outcomes, amongst others.


1. Pakistan defeats the militants.

Algeria faced a militant insurgency in the 1990s and 100,000 people died. The Algerian government ultimately won and the militants were defeated, though they are still active but to a very limited extent.

In this scenario, Pakistan becomes a normal country again.

KPK Pakhtuns continue on the path of Pakistanization, becoming ever more culturally distant (even hostile) to Afghans. If this were to happen then after a generation or two the two peoples, Afghan Pashtuns and Pakistani Pashtuns would be totally different people.



2. Pakistan doesn't defeat the militants.

However they become contained and are to Pakistan what the FARC are to Colombia, PKK are to Turkey etc, i.e. a pain in the neck but do not prevent the stable functioning of the country.

If things go this way, it means the war could carry on for decades.


3. The militants defeat the Pakistan army.

It is hard to see how the militants can actually "defeat" the Pakistan army especially as they are not content with having control of certain parts of Pakistan and leaving the army alone, which if they were, can be cited as an objective they have realized and succeeded in.

The Baloch rebels have a clear goal which is to gain independence, the closest they've come to that is the former prime minister, Gilani speaking of a possible referendum on independence.

The TTP's apparent goal is "shariah" (their version of the pseudo-Islamic shariah) for Pakistan. I cannot see how they can gain control of the apparatus of the state in Pakistan.

The only thing I can see - though very difficult and unlikely but not impossible - is launching a ground offensive to capture Islamabad which is next door to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, or if major Pashtun tribes sympathize with them and rebel against the Pakistani army and state too.

Who knows what will happen.

[tripledouble]

Here are 3 possible outcomes, amongst others.


1. Pakistan defeats the militants.

Algeria faced a militant insurgency in the 1990s and 100,000 people died. The Algerian government ultimately won and the militants were defeated, though they are still active but to a very limited extent.

In this scenario, Pakistan becomes a normal country again.

KPK Pakhtuns continue on the path of Pakistanization, becoming ever more culturally distant (even hostile) to Afghans. If this were to happen then after a generation or two the two peoples, Afghan Pashtuns and Pakistani Pashtuns would be totally different people.



2. Pakistan doesn't defeat the militants.

However they become contained and are to Pakistan what the FARC are to Colombia, PKK are to Turkey etc, i.e. a pain in the neck but do not prevent the stable functioning of the country.

If things go this way, it means the war could carry on for decades.


3. The militants defeat the Pakistan army.

It is hard to see how the militants can actually "defeat" the Pakistan army especially as they are not content with having control of certain parts of Pakistan and leaving the army alone, which if they were, can be cited as an objective they have realized and succeeded in.

The Baloch rebels have a clear goal which is to gain independence, the closest they've come to that is the former prime minister, Gilani speaking of a possible referendum on independence.

The TTP's apparent goal is "shariah" (their version of the pseudo-Islamic shariah) for Pakistan. I cannot see how they can gain control of the apparatus of the state in Pakistan.

The only thing I can see - though very difficult and unlikely but not impossible - is launching a ground offensive to capture Islamabad which is next door to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, or if major Pashtun tribes sympathize with them and rebel against the Pakistani army and state too.

Who knows what will happen.

My predicitions:
1.Pakistan defeats the TTP and peace prevails in Pashtun parts of Pakistan.
2.Pakistan then goes on to defeat LeJ and Shia Hazaras live in peace.
3.Pakistan then engages in conflict with Baloch rebels but then corners them into peace negotiations, forcing Europe and America to deport all Baloch leaders, agrees to grant them semi-autonmy and Baluchistan prevails in peace.
4.Altaf Hussain gets arrested and sentenced to prison in England, Karachi returns to peace.

Pakistan now becomes more peacful than it was even before independence, now Pakistan focuses on the economy and negotiates over Kashmir with India.

I think all of the above are possible.

[randolph85]

How is Pakistan going to conduct operations in Afg when they can't even kill TTP leaders in Pakistan? lol

[Rawanshenas]

Taliban, the last hope of a Pashtun political and military movement is dead and so is any hope for Pashtun Independence from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pashtuns are cursed to live forever between two countries and hated by everyone around them. Thats true. As a pashtun I feel bad.

[Admin Khan]

Paki special ops? Lol. Coward paki soldiers do not have the guts to conduct ground commando actions in hostile territories. Thats why they rely on long range heavy artillary shelling, tanks, jets and gunship heli shelling in FATA, no matter what amount of collateral damages are they inflicting on villages. Paki army is surely responding to TTP's presence in kunar and nuristan, by artillary shelling on Afghan villages , killing irrelevant innocents.
After huge slaughter of SSG in swat operations of 2007 and 2009, they are no longer considered effective. Pakis have adopted rather easy way, tackle the enemy in conventional way, bomb them and their civilians from distance and air.
Interestingly indian army show more guts than paki army. Every time they face some lashkar e taiba militants in kashmir, they kill them through gun battles instead of seeking help from air force or gunship helicopters.
I remember in 2008, afridi taliban captured kohat tunnel from army. Instead of dealing with them through commando action, they used misiles and shellings from cobra gunship, destroying the inside of costly kohat tunnel.
[MENTION=1201]Toramana[/MENTION], [MENTION=1058]Bengal_Tiger[/MENTION] , [MENTION=2]Admin Khan[/MENTION]

The banana republic can't even handle, nor control Karachi, the Pakistani backbone, and it wants to tell Afghanistan what to do? A nation as backwards as Pakistan should first focus on its own problems, such as internal terrorism and exporting terrorism.

As soon as Pakistan stops exporting terrorism to the world, many neighbors will follow suit.

[khushal]

Sajna is opposed to fighting the Pakistani state and wants to focus on the afghan theater where Fazl main focus is the Pakistani state.

[MENTION=1234]Smarty[/MENTION], what do you think. Did the ISI persuade Sajna to start this feud so the Peace talks can be derailed with the civilian gov?

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Let them fight each other and we watch the show.

They are responsible for 40k Pashtuns death and they have will have to pay.

We promise to revenge

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

A very interesting Read


Now TTP can be defeated without even engaging them or not conducted a major operation

Make peace deal with any group and let them fight each other.

After a decade of insurgency,everything seem to be getting back into the right direction

http://tribune.com.pk/story/714748/situationer-sajnas-departure-likely-to-exacerbate-divisions-within-ttp/

The departure of the Mehsuds, the tribe from which the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan draws most of its foot-soldiers, has thrown the TTP leadership into disarray, according to analysts.


The Waliur Rehman Group of Khan Said, alias Sajna, who belongs to the Mehsud tribe, has been embroiled in bloody clashes with the Sheharyar Mehsud-led Hakimullah Group since April this year. Dozens of fighters from both sides have been killed in fighting ever since.


“The TTP is likely to lose its prominence due to the separation of Mehsud fighters from the main group,” Rustam Shah Mohmand, a tribal affairs expert, told The Express Tribune. He was referring to the pullout of the Sajna faction from the TTP.

Mohmand and other analysts foresee more affiliated groups defecting from the organisation including the Punjabi Taliban, headed by Commander Asmatullah Mauavia, who is likely to join Sajna’s group as he also favours a negotiated settlement with the government.


Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a key figure of the Pakistani Taliban has already distanced himself from the TTP leadership mainly because he has a peace agreement with the government. For this reason, analysts say, Bahadur is also likely to throw his weight behind the Mehsuds.

“Bahadur is likely to play mediator between Sajna and the government for a permanent peace accord,” Mohmand said, adding that TTP chief Mullah Fazalullah is unlikely to find any meaningful support after the breakaway of the Mehsud tribe.

Sajna was a contender for the TTP’s leadership after its former chief Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike last November. He is seen as formidable rival of Fazalullah, who he has defied on numerous occasions. “Sajna flatly refused to abide by the decisions recently taken by Fazalullah,” said Mohmand.

“Divisions in the TTP have provided a great opportunity to the government and military to set the tone for peace talks,” said Mohmand. However, he added, it could be an equally dangerous situation due to the volatility of the group at present.

The Haqqani network and al Qaeda may intervene and initiate a rapprochement process between Sajna and the TTP. However, experts believe there are bleak chances of reconciliation.

“Sajna being a son of the soil is not willing to accept a Swati TTP chief [Fazalullah], who is also far away from the main battlefield in North Waziristan,” said an observer, adding that the Haqqani network may also side with the Mehsuds in case Sajna refuses to make peace with Fazalullah.

A spokesman for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) Jan Achakzai believes the old leadership of TTP would not be able to survive this blow since over 75% of TTP fighters belong to the Mehsud tribe.


He urged the government to engage the TTP factions in other parts of Fata as many of them favour a negotiated settlement. “Peace negotiations should also be initiated with the TTP commanders in the tribal agencies of Bajaur, Mohmand and Orakzai.”

Rustam Shah Mohmand believes the split between pro- and anti-dialogue camps would push TTP commanders in Mohmand, Orzakzai and Bajaur in favour of peace negotiations with the government.
Further, analysts fear, large-scale bloodshed among militants is also a possibility if Sajna’s group asks his rivals to leave North Waziristan. “However, all small groups of TTP-affiliated militants will prefer to either leave North Waziristan on their own or part ways with the TTP before they are ordered to vacate the main tribal hub of militancy,” Mohmand added.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 29th, 2014

[Smarty]

Sajna is opposed to fighting the Pakistani state and wants to focus on the afghan theater where Fazl main focus is the Pakistani state.

[MENTION=1234]Smarty[/MENTION], what do you think. Did the ISI persuade Sajna to start this feud so the Peace talks can be derailed with the civilian gov?

Sajna's mentor late waliur rehman was member of JUI-F of mullah diesel, who has deep contacts with ISI, military establishment. It is said that there were differences between waliur rehman and hakimullah over nature of their warfare. Wali wanted to shift the war against NATO in Afghanistan and wanted peace treaty with pakistani governament/army. So rumours spread that wali's location was leaked by hakimullah's men, when he was killed in drone strike. After that within months, hakimullah got killed in drone when peace talks were about to begin, we heard the rumours that sajna leaked his location for drone strike. It is obvious that wali had made contacts with ISI while after his death, his sajna had already switched over to ISI when he took revenge from hakimullah for wali's death. Now look at the timing, sajna launched attacks on loyalists of hakimullah, to disrupt peace of ceasefire. TTP shura had no choice but to end ceasefire due to infighting. Thats what ISI wanted, sajna was given a proper script. All of the men of sajna are in s.waziristan and are spared from aerial strikes. Another card of ISI is asmatullah mauwia, head of punjabi taliban. He was removed from TTP shura by hakimullah last year and he and his fighters were even attacked in miranshah by hakimullah's men. Now we are hearing the news that punjabi taliban have joined hands with sajna.. Exactly similar situation happened in 2008-09, bhittani taliban under haji turkestan separated from baitullah, giving the same reasons as sajna, and were joined by a mehsud faction under Qari zain.

[tripledouble]

Let them fight each other and we watch the show.

They are responsible for 40k Pashtuns death and they have will have to pay.

We promise to revenge

not all 40,000 of those dead are pashtun, many muhajirs,punjabis,sindhis,hazaras,hindkowans were killed too.

[Smarty]

A very interesting Read


Now TTP can be defeated without even engaging them or not conducted a major operation

Make peace deal with any group and let them fight each other.

After a decade of insurgency,everything seem to be getting back into the right direction

http://tribune.com.pk/story/714748/s...ns-within-ttp/

These analysts are fools are what. Mehsuds surely make 75% of TTP fighters but sajna doesnt command all of them. Big chunk of mehsud taliban are under shehryar mehsud of hakimullah group.