Pakistan economy grows beyond targets

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Pakistan recorded five per cent growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the central bank said Friday, beating its target and almost doubling the figure for the same period last year.

The State Bank of Pakistan data for the early months of the financial year began in July, 2013 said GDP grew by 5.0 per cent, compared with only 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of the last fiscal year.


Nuclear-armed Pakistan, plagued by insurgency and chronic power shortages, has struggled to energise its economy in recent years.

Growth has bumped along well below the level experts say is needed to absorb new entrants to the workforce from Pakistan’s growing, youthful population.

“Since the macroeconomic indicators were favourable at the start of the year, the increase in real GDP growth in fiscal year 2014 was discernible,” the bank said.

Pakistan’s economists had set a growth target for the current financial year of 4.4 per cent, and the central bank in earlier reports had forecast growth of four per cent.

The upbeat first quarter performance came on the back of good performances by the industrial and services sectors, the report said.

However the bank warned that inflation swelled to 8.1 per cent in the first quarter compared with 5.6 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

The IMF approved a $6.7 billion bailout loan package for Pakistan in September last year to help the country achieve economic reforms, particularly in its
troubled energy sector.

The fund also observed that Pakistan’s economy was picking up

http://tribune.com.pk/story/677283/pakistan-economy-grows-beyond-targets/

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Govt set Target is 4.4% which was earlier said to be not possible under the condition of Pakistan.And many analysts had forecasted 3.8% for Pakistan.

But Ishaq Dar has certainly proved his worth.Even though i would not rate him yet comparable to Shaukat aziz Who had taken Pakistan from negative growth and 500million reserves to world 2nd fastest growing economy with 8.4% growth rate in 2004(Courtesy bloomberg).

I will appreciate PMLN govt for this and i am now damn sure if Allah wills.Than Achieving 6% growth rate onwards next year won't be difficult.Infact easy and we may achieve 6.5% next year.

And this is just the begininng.As per many analyst onwards 2015 Pakistan may see beyond 5billion dollars FDI on average per year compared to just 800million last year.And 8billion dollars in 2007

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Well i never had any interest in Economy growth rate.

Well i am in online discussion with indians now for more than 6years.

And they have made fun of our growth rate being either in negative or less than 2% while India growing either in double digit or atleast 7-8%.

Each and every county has to go through bad time.

Last year India growth rate was 3.1% While Pakistan 4.2% Under this situation of Pakistan.

This year we will likely to grow by 5.5% or atleast more than 5%.While they at 3.7%.

Now i make fun of them :D

[Shehbaz Khan]

Growth rate, inflation, gdp etc etc are terms to fool you and me. The fact of the matter is that there are still people working for less than 100 dollars a month. There are still kids out there on the streets who couldn't find a piece of bread for themselves. And there are still graduates and masters degree holders who can't find a job. If a 'win' in a debate with a fellow Indian online is all that you need next time don't wait for the growth rate to get high contact me I will give you better points!

Ahmad Faraz once said about Pak-India

sitam to yeh hay kay dono ko weham hay kay bahar,
udoo kay khoon mein nahanay kay baad aati hay ..

and than he asked you about the common man of both sides

ab inki teera naseebi charagh chahti hay
jo log nisf sadi tak rahay andhairon mein!

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Growth rate, inflation, gdp etc etc are terms to fool you and me. The fact of the matter is that there are still people working for less than 100 dollars a month. There are still kids out there on the streets who couldn't find a piece of bread for themselves. And there are still graduates and masters degree holders who can't find a job. If a 'win' in a debate with a fellow Indian online is all that you need next time don't wait for the growth rate to get high contact me I will give you better points!

Ahmad Faraz once said about Pak-India

sitam to yeh hay kay dono ko weham hay kay bahar,
udoo kay khoon mein nahanay kay baad aati hay ..

and than he asked you about the common man of both sides

ab inki teera naseebi charagh chahti hay
jo log nisf sadi tak rahay andhairon mein!

Although your right.But one should understand that for a developing country to overcome the above problems take decades not years.

Let suppose if Pakistan GDP grows by 5% this year compared to 2.9% last year.

Our GDP will increase to 279billion dollars with 5% or 261Billion dollars by 2.9%

Now the percapita break down for

279b$=1550$
261b=1475$

Now this is a big difference of 75$.

This also mean next year the National Budget will be higher.

Higher national Budget means More development,Infra,Educations spending=In long run more jobs,Better educated youth etc etc.

Economic growth rate is the only indicator that can do wonders for any country.

Just look at India.they are growing on average 7% since 1990.

In 1981 Pakistan per capita was 2.3times more than India.But today there per captia is higher than us.

in 2000 India had 37% people living under poverty line while pakistan 27%.

But today we still are struck at 22% and they 23.5% and may cross us in 2-3years.

So these indicators does matter.

The rest i am a PHD in india's matter.Actually i am having online discussion with them even when i was in class 8th. :D

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

On another note, India has extreme poverty as compared to Pakistan.
In Pakistan every riksha has a motorized engine while in India, they still have rikshas that are pulled by people who are walking on foot. LOL
India is also very filthy compared to Pakistan and smells very bad.
Delhi is like a toilet compared to Islamabad, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar or Karachi.

India does has extreme poverty yet.But they are overcoming the problems very fast.

The situation within a decade would be different since by 2020.India per capita will be no less than 3000Dollars(Nominal)

India has much much greater potential than China.

For Pakistan,India should be the role model not China since our problems are similar to india.

India may be our enemy but i admire them for their economic growth and future.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

I hate India because they didn't give me a visa.
My friend went there last october and I wanted to go with him but I couldn't since I had a Pakistani stamp in my passport and lived in Pakistan for a long time, they didn't want to let me visit.
So I just went to pakistan instead. I don't like this policy of India.

Although it does take time to get indian visa for a pakistani.But they do issue.

PAkistani and indian govt are working on the visa issue to make it more simple.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Its too complicated, you need to prove why you're visiting and they ask for your grandfather's name, occupation, etc. which I don't know.

True Because both countries has threat from each other citizens.

You know,How much afraid they are from ISI after the kashmir insurgency :P

60K civilian and 10k troops died because of messing with ISI :D

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Its especially difficult for young men to get a visa, I think older people and women can get it easily.

It may be.

But if you try through Pakistan.I am sure they will give you.

anyway where do you live in USA?Which state?

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

I haven't lived in the USA for a long time but I used to live in Illinois.
Now, I'm temporarily in UAE and Oman but I'm based in London.

Ahan,I am back from UAE earlier this month

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Did you like it? I hate it lol

Indeed,UAE is my birth place and fav country aswell.

[Khostai]

In every news channel when they talk about Pakistan, I only hear how bad the economy is due to power shortage and that Pakistan is a failed state, but there is always some shady pakistany media source who claims that Pakistan is booming, kind of weird don't you think? That the only positive news is produced by Pakistan themselfs -_-..........

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

In every news channel when they talk about Pakistan, I only hear how bad the economy is due to power shortage and that Pakistan is a failed state, but there is always some shady pakistany media source who claims that Pakistan is booming, kind of weird don't you think? That the only positive news is produced by Pakistan themselfs -_-..........

Pakistan is a poor country and it will face problems like loadshedding,less per capita,Less literacry rate and related similar problems for long time in future aswell

You need to understand that no country can become develop within a short span unless it has extremely less population like gulf countries and way too much real wealth like oil.

Iran has a Per capita Income of Around 5500-6000dollars(388billion dollars vs 70million population) And with this much per capita you won't see the poverty similar to pakistan in iran.And We might reach the per capita of 6000dollars by 2022-23(If 5% growth rate) and 2020(if 6-7% growth rate)

The period 2008-13 was the worst in Pakistan history with an average 2.9-3.1% growth rate.And now reach 5% within the first quarter.

Until and unless Pakistan reach 5000$ per capita.you will see alot of poverty in Pakistan.Unless and until Pakistan reach 600-700billion dollars GDP.You will see Pakistan begging for 6billion dollars to IMF and WB.

Hopefully Pakistan can reach 700billion dollars GDP by 2020.

With 700billion dollars GDP you will notice a infrastructure boom in Pakistan such as in india today.

They have 15 projects running parallel for metro in 15 cities and growing.

Pakistan had planned metro initially in 1992.But delayed.When Musharaf signed deal in 2005.In 2009 Even the locomotives reached Pakistan for karachi/Lahore metro project but due to corruption of past govt.Eveything got ruined.

Anyway the deal for metro is signed with japan.I hope we may see it in near future(2017-18)

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

If Pakistan want to achieve Sustained Growth rate of more than 7% and a knowledge based economy.

We will certainly have to follow India.

*Invest hell alot of money into education(5% of GDP compared to present this year 2.7%)
*Develop heavy industries
*Invest into renewable energy such as Solar,wind and Hydropower
*Increase export to Upto 100billion dollars by 2020 otherwise we have failed
*Invest in the Shale gas/Oil reserves of Pakistan which are one of the largest in the world so that we won't have to import them
*If possible even export Shale gas in LNG form by 2020 such as America is doing now and china in planning
*Increase tax collection

Good points from this Govt

*Loadshedding situation has improved
*greater supply of electricity and gas is provided to the industries
*Got GSP status from EU within few months
*Growth rate doubled in 6 months.
*Export witnessed 7% increase.
*Reserves to reach 16billion dollars by this year end from 8billion dollars now
*Education spending increased from 2.1% to 2.7% within the first month of the published budget
*HEC budget increased from 21billion pkr to 57Billion PKR.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Published in Business standard

aswell as Gulf news

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/pakistan-economy-beats-growth-target-up-by-5-0-114022801296_1.html

http://gulftoday.ae/portal/1556d4bd-b7fc-4360-b5f7-ffcdea00c367.aspx