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Pakistan seeks to exploit US command vacuum
* Ahmed Rashid says Islamabad is making efforts to influence impending US policy review on Afghanistan to put itself in the driving seat
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is looking to exploit a shake-up in the US command in Afghanistan to bolster its allies within the Taliban and increase its influence over a future Kabul government, analysts say.
The strategy, however, relies on bringing the brutal and independent-minded Haqqani network to heel, something many believe is impossible.
The incoming US commander, General David Petraeus, “does not have a good relationship” with Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said Ahmed Rashid, a political analyst, journalist and expert on the Taliban.
“The army does not trust him and they don’t like him,” Rashid said. “This hiatus is going to be used by both the Afghan government and the Pakistani government to see if they can get something going,” he added.
In essence, Pakistan is hoping the American command vacuum proves a window of opportunity for Islamabad to deal more directly with Kabul in forcing an accommodation with its militant allies, such as the Haqqani network.
This is currently opposed by the United States, but it would grant Pakistan a large measure of influence in Afghanistan.
After McChrystal’s replacement, Pakistan is hoping to establish a “reality on the ground” before Petraeus fully takes over, said Rashid.
“I think there will be a review of US policy very quickly as soon as Petraeus arrives and I think these efforts are being made to try and influence that review and put Pakistan in the driving seat,” he said.
And the Haqqani network and the Taliban is one of the main levers for Pakistan to exert influence.
“Pakistan is not just prepared but very eager to play a role in bringing peace in Afghanistan,” said Rahimullah Yousafzai, an expert on Taliban militancy.
Run by Jalaluddin Haqqani, an elderly veteran resistance leader against Soviet troops in the 1980s, the Haqqani network operates near Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan.
Leadership of the group has largely passed from the ailing Haqqani to his son, Sirajuddin, seen by US officials as more radical than his father. Yousafzai and Rashid both think it would be very difficult to convince the Haqqanis to lay down their arms.
“He (Sirajuddin) is very committed to international jihad. Part of his network includes al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, other central Asian groups, Chechen groups. He’s been very protective of all these groups and they form his strength right now,” Rashid said.
“Secondly, they have never, never issued any kind of statement even remotely discussing the issue of reconciliation and peace in Afghanistan,” he said.
This weekend, a private TV channel Al Jazeera reported that Sirajuddin recently met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Gen Kayani and the head of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Ahmad Pasha to discuss a peace deal.
But official sources in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as Taliban spokespeople speaking for Haqqani, strenuously denied any such meeting.
“The Haqqani group isn’t a separate entity,” said Yousafzai. “Jalaluddin is a member of the supreme Taliban shura. I think it’s impossible that Jalaluddin Haqqani or his son will strike a separate deal with Kabul,” he said.
The US doubts that any deal can be made until the Haqqanis and other Taliban militants feel they are on the defensive in Afghanistan.
A senior intelligence official in Islamabad said that while Pakistan would like a “friendly” Afghanistan — which many analysts believe a Taliban-dominated government might provide — Pakistan would settle for peace. “We can deal with a hostile Afghanistan as long as it is peaceful,” he said.d.
Rashid scoffed at the idea of Pakistan wanting only a peaceful Afghanistan as “propaganda”.
“Our interest is not just having a peaceful Afghanistan. It’s more than that, certainly. Otherwise we wouldn’t be trying so hard,” he added.
reuters
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-6-2010_pg7_12
* Ahmed Rashid says Islamabad is making efforts to influence impending US policy review on Afghanistan to put itself in the driving seat
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is looking to exploit a shake-up in the US command in Afghanistan to bolster its allies within the Taliban and increase its influence over a future Kabul government, analysts say.
The strategy, however, relies on bringing the brutal and independent-minded Haqqani network to heel, something many believe is impossible.
The incoming US commander, General David Petraeus, “does not have a good relationship” with Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said Ahmed Rashid, a political analyst, journalist and expert on the Taliban.
“The army does not trust him and they don’t like him,” Rashid said. “This hiatus is going to be used by both the Afghan government and the Pakistani government to see if they can get something going,” he added.
In essence, Pakistan is hoping the American command vacuum proves a window of opportunity for Islamabad to deal more directly with Kabul in forcing an accommodation with its militant allies, such as the Haqqani network.
This is currently opposed by the United States, but it would grant Pakistan a large measure of influence in Afghanistan.
After McChrystal’s replacement, Pakistan is hoping to establish a “reality on the ground” before Petraeus fully takes over, said Rashid.
“I think there will be a review of US policy very quickly as soon as Petraeus arrives and I think these efforts are being made to try and influence that review and put Pakistan in the driving seat,” he said.
And the Haqqani network and the Taliban is one of the main levers for Pakistan to exert influence.
“Pakistan is not just prepared but very eager to play a role in bringing peace in Afghanistan,” said Rahimullah Yousafzai, an expert on Taliban militancy.
Run by Jalaluddin Haqqani, an elderly veteran resistance leader against Soviet troops in the 1980s, the Haqqani network operates near Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan.
Leadership of the group has largely passed from the ailing Haqqani to his son, Sirajuddin, seen by US officials as more radical than his father. Yousafzai and Rashid both think it would be very difficult to convince the Haqqanis to lay down their arms.
“He (Sirajuddin) is very committed to international jihad. Part of his network includes al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, other central Asian groups, Chechen groups. He’s been very protective of all these groups and they form his strength right now,” Rashid said.
“Secondly, they have never, never issued any kind of statement even remotely discussing the issue of reconciliation and peace in Afghanistan,” he said.
This weekend, a private TV channel Al Jazeera reported that Sirajuddin recently met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Gen Kayani and the head of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Ahmad Pasha to discuss a peace deal.
But official sources in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as Taliban spokespeople speaking for Haqqani, strenuously denied any such meeting.
“The Haqqani group isn’t a separate entity,” said Yousafzai. “Jalaluddin is a member of the supreme Taliban shura. I think it’s impossible that Jalaluddin Haqqani or his son will strike a separate deal with Kabul,” he said.
The US doubts that any deal can be made until the Haqqanis and other Taliban militants feel they are on the defensive in Afghanistan.
A senior intelligence official in Islamabad said that while Pakistan would like a “friendly” Afghanistan — which many analysts believe a Taliban-dominated government might provide — Pakistan would settle for peace. “We can deal with a hostile Afghanistan as long as it is peaceful,” he said.d.
Rashid scoffed at the idea of Pakistan wanting only a peaceful Afghanistan as “propaganda”.
“Our interest is not just having a peaceful Afghanistan. It’s more than that, certainly. Otherwise we wouldn’t be trying so hard,” he added.
reuters
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-6-2010_pg7_12
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