Originally posted by Karachi
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My point in posting the Guardian piece was not to defend their honor but rather to ensure that we get to the root of the question you are asking.
One can never defeat something unless one understands it and understands a phenomena for what it is, not what we want it to be.
So what you want ISIS to be is to be is simply a crazy group of thugs that have taken a population hostage that can somehow be killed off if everyone wakes up to their extremism/Takfirism.
The problem with that simplistic approach is that it ignores how they are rising to power in the first place.
Here is the head of the Dulaim Tribe, one of the largest tribes in the sunni triangle with immense manpower:
Shiekh Ali Hatem was one of the awakening council people originally and was crucial to that group's successes in tamping down on the Zarqawi predecessors.
He says the following:
In an interview with The Telegraph, Ali Hatem Suleimani distanced himself from Isis’s sectarian massacres but rejected demands that he break with the group and help form a united Sunni-Shia government.
“We can fight Isis and al-Qaeda whenever we want to,” he said. “But now are fighting for our lands and our tribes. We are not responsible for Isis. Look what has Maliki has done – look at the two million refugees. He has destroyed and killed – and where was the world then?”
“We can fight Isis and al-Qaeda whenever we want to,” he said. “But now are fighting for our lands and our tribes. We are not responsible for Isis. Look what has Maliki has done – look at the two million refugees. He has destroyed and killed – and where was the world then?”
In a separate occasion, Nuri Al Maliki decided he wanted to solidify Iran and in general Shiite hold on the Iraqi government. One of the people getting in the way of that was the former vice president. He decided to generate bogus terrorist charges and attempt to capture the sunni VP. Here is what that gentleman, Mr. Hashimi says:
“We shouldn’t look at this development of ISIS as apart from the uprising of the Arab Sunni provinces over two years,” Hashimi told The Daily Beast in an interview from Turkey, where he has been living since the government of Nouri al-Maliki purged him in 2012 by indicting him on murder charges, then convicting him in abstentia.
“The provinces have done a peaceful Sunni revolt against the oppression, the injustice, the inhuman conditions the Arab Sunnis have been suffering for years,” he said.
“The provinces have done a peaceful Sunni revolt against the oppression, the injustice, the inhuman conditions the Arab Sunnis have been suffering for years,” he said.
Finally, how was Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi created?
The most evidence based story we have to date ^
So Karachi, putting emotionalism aside what we see, whether we like it or not is that ISIS is an artifact... it is merely a beneficiary of the outcomes of a series of foolish decisions made by multiple players:
1) Sunni Tribal Sheikhs in assuming that the Sawah Councils and the kickbacks would be endless... they thought they would basically get their sunni people to sit back, relax and the US kickbacks would fund them for eternity. They were astounded when Obama pulled out and the payouts stopped. That really pissed them off.
2) Maliki and Iran in thinking that they could subvert a rather large portion of Iraq's population and not at least provide a reasonable amount of revenue and representation
3) The US in unleashing these forces of chaos out which the most zealous and survivalist fighters will rise to the top
4) Ditto for 3 where the US and McChrystal systematically picked off, using Death Squads, moderate insurgent leaders instead of compromising, leaving a vacuum in place for this to happen.
So now what are the options?
Well they are:
A) Maliki gets international support and a combined force goes scorched earth on the sunni people. That means that they will commit atrocities beyond what they are already committing (they are currently taking sunni women in battle areas and arresting them to threaten the Tribes). It would pretty much mean Fallujah style devastation (which didn't work despite all the bragging about Fallujah 1 and Fallujah 2) being inflicted on a whole religious group, secular/moderate/and extremists alike.
And even still this wont work because the insurgency has a fall back area in Syria now that they can recoup in so it will only be temporary
B) The US and Iran work together and decide that Bashr Assad is better for their interests than they abandon their Syrian proxy war. They then equip and help Assad to crush the rebels from the Syrian side while they do A) from the Iraq side... once again we saw what Hafiz Assad and now Bashr have done to so many sunnis so that also is an ethical problem too.
or, if we do what I am advocating and sit down, calm headed, and follow the evidence trail and history trail to really get the diagnosis right. What we see is that interventionalism is the disease and ISIS is a symptom of that disease. Some of the catalysts are forces like Sunni resentment and Saudi money and so on and so forth. This then gives us the better option C
C) Just leave it alone. The powers should acknowledge their role in creating this mess and just sit back and let Maliki and these guys battle it out. Maliki will get his Iranian support and the Saudis will back ISIS in return. Neither side can win quickly and there will be a stalemate. This will result in either federation or Baghdad having to give in to some sunni equality. Then, with no further incentives to let ISIS run their lives and galvanize them, as the Sheikh of the Dulaim tribe describes above, it will be the tribesmen versus the ISIS (many foreign fighters) and ISIS won't have a fertile ground to keep its roots implanted in.
But all of those reasons above, and you should read Sheikh Dulaim's comments, are the answer to your bolded question.
So once again, please do not be emotional in your analysis and simply look at the facts. You can lament the support all you want, but even then it still exists for those same reasons I described. This has nothing to do with Western values and hypocrisy or vaginal mutilation; these are all excuses and war fever propaganda. I repeat, I do not support or like what ISIS is doing, but I choose to understand the conflict instead of making it worse by giving in to the propaganda so that even more lives are lost and even more radicalization occurs.

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