Justification and conditions regarding suicide missions

[BarakzaiAbdali]

in other words he's guessing; this would be a falter.


.

[/QUOTE]

Nope. Its basically laying out the evidence, seeing where the correlations are the strongest:

e.g. Candy sales spike on October 31st and Candy is given out in massive quantities on October 31st x 10 years in a row... data that consumers purchase goods in mass on December 24th x 10 years... data shows that romantic dinners are undergone x 10 years in a row on February 14th.

A future statistician socialigist looking at these records would be perfectly validated in addressing these correlations.

As has our boy pape. You on the other hand have merely claimed Logico Fomento Pamento Wizardicus... doesnt make it so my friend.

[ScimitarXEdge]

so he's guessing ......and you're making a euphemism for it

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Mujtahids & Method*


therefore his fatwas aren't valid according to the over all Sunni Ulama, as he is not a Mujtahid.

Sunnipath Scimitar? Has it really come to this?

An online sunnipath catalogue of coursework is not sufficient.

Also this is the genius that wrote that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraz_Rabbani

[BarakzaiAbdali]

so he's guessing ......and you're making a euphemism for it

If if you want to call it a "Guess" the problem therein is that his guess is based on analysis of raw data and then a look at correlation coefficients and .05 p values.

That sort of "guess" certainly supersedes your "guess" which is based purely on a concocted conspiracy theory.

You also have to deal with his numbers showing that the majority of the suicide bombs in Pashtun areas hit Pakistanis in areas there uniformed officers occupied as that tidbit just blows a massive hole in your faulty Titanic.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Ok SXE, its been fun, dont take this stuff to heart. I generally respect your intellect. I gotta go eat because my dinner is getting cold. Nonetheless, I strongly feel I cannot accept your conclusions because the weight of evidence and history lyes on the opposite side of them. Generally, Ill say that I think lofty ideals for what is expected of Muslims, as you have, is not a bad thing.

[ScimitarXEdge]

Sunnipath Scimitar? Has it really come to this?

An online sunnipath catalogue of coursework is not sufficient.

Also this is the genius that wrote that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraz_Rabbani

you do realize he is Sunni scholar right? and that is an explanation of the status of Qaradawi. his opinions are not valid as he is not a mujtahid

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Who said the contrary ? Maybe if people like you took a ticket to Afghanistan and joined the resistants, they would be stronger and wouldn't be using suicide bombing in the first place. So what are you waiting ? Afghanistan is not my country and I don't have the money to go to help the mujahideens.

What's the point of talking about the mujahideens's way of fighting. Aren't they civilians too, who are fighting for their religion ? Why don't you care about those civilians. Give them helmets and bullet proof vests. Start caring about those civilians who were ordinary people and joined the mujahideens. They are just civilians too but the fact they are suffering from the lack of troops, money and logistical support doesn't seem to affect you as much as the fate of the other civilians.

Compare. How many time have you helped them and how many time have you judged/criticized them.

Of course suicide bombings should be abandoned the very day americans left Afghanistan. Did the Talibans used suicide bombings prior to US invasion ? No.

I don't support suicide bombings nor do I forbit it. I am not a scholar of Islam to make such a decision. But what I know is that the people who criticize the Talibans don't take weapons.

I agree, that was not my commentary at all. In fact, a majority of what I am stating is just that. This is the basis of my discussion for pages now with SXE (i.e. the ground level situation drives the technical aspects of the war). My point here is that this assymetric war has predictable responses embedded in it by its very nature.

Allow me to furnish an example: If I take a group of Afghans, no matter how deendaar and no matter how educated, and no matter how elegent they are, and I give them guns and I take them to Timbaktu or to Birmingham Alabama... for me to expect that every citizen will greet me with flowers is absurd. My very presence as a foreign entity is an ethical problem because I know that various groups of people will not want me there and will fight to not allow me to be there. Even if I had overwhelming force and exercised it... there would be locals that would resent my presence. Therefore, its my ethical obligation to not force my way in. This phenomena is not a Christian Muslim thing... its a human thing. In fact, Mahmud Ghaznavi walking into Delhi and breaking the Shiva idol is an example of this. It was bound to cauise resentment. No matter how many times a Muslim tells a Hindu: Well look, we broke down the caste system partially and we introduce XYZ into your realm... arent you grateful??? It doesnt matter. The only argument in response is that the world is a conquer or be conquered place and that everyone has to understand it has always been this way.

I just took exception to your commentary that the figurative woman and baby SXE presented brought it on themselves. In this same way, I dont think Mullah Omar and his folks brought this war on themselves. I strongly believe that Muslims are generally responsible for many of their societal ills and failings and their crumbling social structure is something that is a self delivered pain. The wars they are fighting though, in their countries, are not one of these. Both Hamid Karzai and Mullah Omar are playing roles in a play that never had to be written if these outside powers really had any concern at all for Afghanistan as they claimed. Omar would probably be a local cleric in Deh Rawood and Karzai would be chumming it up at elitist Kandahari parties, neither involves in this tete e tete. Instead, groups continents away without any need to be involved (British, Russians, Americans) began the game.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

you do realize he is Sunni scholar right? and that is an explanation of the status of Qaradawi. his opinions are not valid as he is not a mujtahid

Qardawai is a sunni scholar too. Putting them in a room would basically result in both of them telling the other they cannot pass fatwas. If such is the case, then its up to each person to assess why suicide bombing occurs (which I believe Pape has addressed and is common sense) and to address the root cause of the phenomena in reality, not in the way that Soldat has where he merely addresses it as some sort of fun time for the fighters to go and enact injustices for the sake of it. And as I have said, I strongly believe that a foreign occupier force consisting of a people with a different ethnicity, religious ideology that is an anathema to Islam, and set of goals that run counter to the populations, coupled to gross asymmetry, has created this mess.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

the fact that mullah omar needs to tell his soldiers in his recent message not to harm civilians and that there would be penalties for doing so should tell the story here.

after 10 years of war, and 17 years of the taliban movement which was initially known for justice despite its repressive ways, the leader still needs to send out highly profile messages which include pentalties for misconduct. if there were no troubles in this regard, there would be no need for such a message.

i don't trust a man who refuses who show his subjects his face, after all, he is the commander of the faithful, right? but i don't think he orders the killings of innocents. that puts him in the same league as ahmad shah massoud, both incompetent and not suited for the self proclaimed titles or the ones bestowed upon them.

Per Zaeefs book, he didnt want the position, he believed it was thrust upon him. Its a different question of whether he is right or wrong. He likely wont show his face for security reasons.

I think that Pashtun society is a delicate balance of the malik system, mullahocracy, and living a generally rustic life.

It was always this way in the villages... the Mullah was there to do his own thing (e.g. approve marriage contracts, lead the prayers, teach Quran [although even this was often times something that a mother taught her children if she was literate]). And he was a tribal affiliate.. meaning that a Mehsud mullah or a Alokozai mullah was a tribesmen and generally did not view his interests as separate from that of his kin/larger grouping. The Malik's word superceded that of the Mullah. However, the Mullah had his own place in daily function.

What happened during multiple invasions, not even solely the Russian invasion, is that this structure broke down.

Interestingly enough, a very similar setup is here in the US:
Take Texas, you have GW Bush (your malik family) and you have his pastor who generally supports him and rallies the vote for him. He validates Bush and only occasionally comes into conflict with him (e..g when Bush's daughter said she supports gays).

Now if American were invaded by a foreign power, the first to flee might be Bush... who does that leave behind in the vacuum? Generally those that cannot get out (middle lower and lower class). The American mullaocracy would be apart of this. Jerry Falwell's fat a-ss might make his way out to France to become a member of the France 7... but generally the local cleric (minister) would be left behind and in the south at least, be a rallying point for the people. His power would augment in this vacuum.

By this same token, the tribal elite ran away from their duty to lead in the time of war, leaving behind lower tribal families (Haji Latif for example) and the clerics (zaeef and omar) to fight.

This delicate balance was then broken. Ahmad Shah Durrani was both a tribal elite and had a very diplomatic relationship with the pirs of his era. So Pir Sabir was able to play a role, but never really feel as if he could supercede Abdali. Abdali also led from the front. It was the same with Mir wais neka. Whatever their failings, they still were leaders.

Also, Omar is leading a guerilla insurgency wherein communication is very limited. If they could trace OBL via courier that did hand messages... they would locate Omar in a heart beat. He is their number 2 target. It would be a stupid move for him to increase his communications and expose himself.

[ScimitarXEdge]

Qardawai is a sunni scholar too. Putting them in a room would basically result in both of them telling the other they cannot pass fatwas. .

but Shaykh Faraz does not pass Fatwas, he passes what the Mujtahideen say, no Mujtahid ever has said suicide bombing is acceptable from amongst the Ahl Al-Sunnah, amongst the Shi'i I don't know.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

but Shaykh Faraz does not pass Fatwas, he passes what the Mujtahideen say, no Mujtahid ever has said suicide bombing is acceptable from amongst the Ahl Al-Sunnah, amongst the Shi'i I don't know.

That sounds reasonable. Qardawai's treatises are actual fatwas on the subject but rather a discussion of why Bin Baaz could not pass a fatwa against for the reasons he did.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

SXE,

Here is Pape's presentation to the New America Foundation.

Robert Pape - Cutting the Fuse: The Explosion of Suicide Terrorism and How to Stop It (3 of 4) - YouTube[/URL]

He presents his data.

Per the full extended presentation, he discusses Iraq and its glaring effects.

Found here:

Cutting the Fuse - Robert Pape and Gov. Thomas Kean - YouTube[/URL]

As noted previously, you and Randolph have to effectively deal with the data and answer the issues at hand.

The Pashtun section begins at 2 minutes 40 seconds. The discussion into the Pakistani FATA belt continues at 3.11.

Sorry man, he just kills you here.

And here, last but not least is his data base that the marine references in the Q & A section.

http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php

Its all open source and the first universal database of its kind. So go at it my Mathematician buddy... you can filter the data by year, location, group, campaign, target type, weapon, etc.

***And to once agian preempt your criticism, yes its your job to sift through the raw data now, not Pape's. He has no duty at all to lead you by the hand through each of his calculations. If that was his duty or any other scientific authors duty, each journal article would be the size of novels.***

Until you provide your description of a counter analysis, per his data base, he has soundly devastated you my friend. Its an easy to utilize data base. You have cadres of Pashtun Marxists here with computer science degrees who can help you crunch the numbers and determine p values.

Now, its your duty to shift the moral imperitive back to the Afghan people, namely the Pashtuns in the insurgency until you deal with the data above.

It also soundly crushes Soldat's commentary regarding the suicide bombers in Afghanistan being foreign nationals. Pape discusses this in the section entitled 90% of the Afghan bombers were AFghan nationals. It also crushes his theory that this is all chaotic randomness and his discussion of Pakistan and the suicide bombing in FATA begins at minute 3 second 11.

Enjoy.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Bottom line of this debate thread:
SXE's theory of chaotic randomness and no correlation between ISAF presence and commensurate suicide bombing is unsubstantiated and has no support in the literature or the data. Rather the opposite is seen in the data, both from Dr. Pape's assessment from his work at the University of Chicago as seen above and in the Afghan Study Group's work under Hoh.

Now the question comes down to: Are the Taliban Legitimately defying foreign occupation with this assymetric warfare tactic as it is proven this tactic is a 1:1 correlative response to ISAF troop presence?

The answer to that question lies in the eyes of the beholder and who has a moral imperitive. Do the Americans have it after the attacks 10 years ago? Do the Taliban in terms of their view of being occupied? The answer can be subjective based on who is viewing the question.

Now, SXE will have to provide the data to buttress his claim of chaotic randomness by the Taliban in a strategic attempt to validate the ISAF presence.

We await his work eagerly since the data is now in his grasp.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Examples of ease of use of this phenomenal resource that has ALL known suicide attacks catalogued across the world, including for Afghanistan.

[Alchemist]

Now, SXE will have to provide the data to buttress his claim of chaotic randomness by the Taliban in a strategic attempt to validate the ISAF presence.

We await his work eagerly since the data is now in his grasp.

Don't hold your breath.