Overplaying

[DSM0305]

After long 4 decades of brutal war, Afghans thought peace is finally at sight. For the first time peace seemed to be within reach and constructive talks actually fathom to something, but arrogance a great sin in Islam may be live displayed in our eyes, as to why it is a sin.



Trump being himself, does something in the spur of the moment and doesn't think of the political consequences, and literally offers Taliban everything without any return. It stirs into Taliban's head and arrogantly rejects it, so much for peace...


I make this post short. Taliban will never in its life time get this chance again. There is literally no short comings for the USA to continuing the war. The amount of money they use in the Afghan war is minuscule for their economy. The life lost of Americans is almost non existent. Their economy is alive and well, with great growth, especially for the sheer size of the enormous economy. Basically USA is in a position to continue this for centuries, without any significant impact on its economy or its soldiers lives.



So USA offering them to leave the country without condition(basically), all the Taliban had to do is talk to the government... Yet, they arrogantly refusing. The thing is, they're overplaying their cards. As time goes on and the spur of the moment is gone, the offer will be worse for the Taliban. The US allies will question whether it is reasonable, the US military will question it, the US government officials and the list goes on. Trump only bargain for this, because he could use this as an achievement, when he runs for the second term. Sooner or later, he will shake his head and think ''what was I thinking''.



Taliban thinking that the US is running. The economy is bad, the military got defeated. They just want an escape. Lets make them leave the country, de-legitimize the government and just take the whole cake. They literally need somebody with common sense to tell them the reality. Sadly, everyone compare it to previous wars or just complete lack basic understanding of what is going on in the world. Only a fool, will rely only on the past, rather than calculating new variables.



People are stupid enough to think that those peace talks have sidelined the government, what they don't understand is these peace talks are done because the Afghan government let them. Everything that is done, is done due to the Afghan governments accepts. The Afghan government could easily have said, that the peace talks should only happen if it is Afghan lead, but they let the US do the peace talks, because they wished to see the end to the war.



I don't want to drag this post any long, believe me, there is a lot more, but I end it with this; The Taliban need to act fast, if they want the Americans to leave. The offer will not last for long, trust me(if it is not already taken back).

[khushal]

Thank you for keeping the stupidity short.

[Firdousi]

Thank you for keeping the stupidity short.

He actually made some legit points.

[khushal]

which ones? I see nothing but the blathering of a person who is nervous of not making any more money of this useless war.

[Insight]

After long 4 decades of brutal war, Afghans thought peace is finally at sight. For the first time peace seemed to be within reach and constructive talks actually fathom to something, but arrogance a great sin in Islam may be live displayed in our eyes, as to why it is a sin.



Trump being himself, does something in the spur of the moment and doesn't think of the political consequences, and literally offers Taliban everything without any return. It stirs into Taliban's head and arrogantly rejects it, so much for peace...


I make this post short. Taliban will never in its life time get this chance again. There is literally no short comings for the USA to continuing the war.

The amount of money they use in the Afghan war is minuscule for their economy. The life lost of Americans is almost non existent. Their economy is alive and well, with great growth, especially for the sheer size of the enormous economy. Basically USA is in a position to continue this for centuries, without any significant impact on its economy or its soldiers lives.

The US economy was tanking for over the last decade until Trump came. Even now it still sucks. Where do you get this idea that the US is an open check book? There is a massive debt coupled by an even greater trade deficit .

So USA offering them to leave the country without condition(basically), all the Taliban had to do is talk to the government...

Trump Admin just wants out. It should be clear now that Trump just cares about photo ops and optics regarding Afghanistan. As long as Taliban say they will not let terrorists gain a foothold or that they will fight ISIS, Trump is happy.

Trump wants to fulfill his campaign promise and thats why he does not care about his own generals

[Insight]

And btw, have you seen how Trump disrespects US allies, nations like UK,Germany, and France? Tells

The Kabul regime is overplaying their hand. Trump is a hot potato. He might even say something like "Taliban is fighting ISIS, Kabul regime isn't or lacks the ability." I would not be suprised

Thats the logic he is using to leave the ME.

[khushal]

He disrespects them because they don't pay their share for NATO. The US pays for their protection which is why they can afford their universal healthcare system.

[DSM0305]

Thank you for keeping the stupidity short.

wee qandulak, you have grown so much. You can even speak nowDon't worry khushal jan, next time I come by, I buy you a toy

[DSM0305]

People need to understand why the US or rather Trump is even willing to talk to Taliban. The US is no dire situation. The Afghan war was all forgotten, until the talk of peace came by. How many time have Afghanistan been mentioned in a significant way in the past years. Even in election campaign it was ignored. This speaks volume of it significance for the American people. It is no major economic burden, in fact, it cost the US far more to give away free aid money, that they're distributing to foreign nations, than the actual Afghan war. So in terms of economics, it has no significant. In terms of human value, there is barely any American casualties, so there will be no major public opinion regarding the war.

Regarding the ANA casualties, it simply doesn't effect the US. The cost of war neither increase or decrease, when an Afghan soldier dies. They have a specific amount of money they use for the Afghan army, as harsh as it sound, it is completely irrelevant for the US whether the Afghan soldiers dies or not. At least economically speaking.
So practically speaking, there is absolutely no reason for the US to leave. This is also where I have to praise the Afghan government. What people don't understand, that the peace process is orchestrated by the Afghan government. As I mention before, the Afghan war was out of the limelight. Yet, the Afghan government made it relevant. The thing is, because it was out of the limelight, the public would have never accepted Taliban becoming relevant in Afghanistan. Neither the US citizen nor its allies, even many Afghans were against it.

This is where the Afghan governments brilliant thinking and sacrifice comes to play. One example is, when Ashraf ghani mentioned the sacrifice of 45000 Afghan soldiers who died in the war. It was a political suicide for him, but very important detail in the grand scale. It was to showcase the world, the sacrifice the Afghan people are undergoing every day.

Do you guys even know how irrelevant the Afghan war were. It was becoming so irrelevant, that the government of the European nations considered Afghanistan as safe and denied Afghan refugees. At one point, some European nations said, if anyone from Afghanistan came to the country, they will be deported back straight to Afghanistan...
This is were the Ghanis sacrifice comes to play. He didn't have to mention the death of Afghan soldiers, he could have underplayed it. He could have said, that Taliban is only killing civilians and the military is pushing back against these terrorist. It would have assured his position.
- He would have appeared strong to the Afghan public and foreign government
- He would have assured long term support for his government
- He would have assured his long time position
Yet, you may ask why he didn't do that. It simple, it was a self sacrifice for the peace. If he did that, he may have dehumanized the Taliban and kept the Afghan war from the limelight, assuring that the public wouldn't want to negotiate with the Taliban and just keeping the status quo.

Now even though he getting criticized for the loss of lives, but at least he turned the public opinion around and reminded them, that people actually dying in the war, even though they may not be your relatives.



Now to the main question, why did Trump offer such unconditional retreat, if they literally have no reason to in practical term? Its simple, it is all symbolic. He want to appear as the man who brought peace to Afghanistan, something neither Bush or Obama could. It is a good thing to use for the presidential election. So basically, if the negative symbolism out-weight the positive symbolism, the deal is immediately off. The only reason the deal is even on, is because the Afghan government made it relevant and increased the symbolic value, because they highlighted the sacrificed made every day by Afghans. To put it simple, the Taliban aren't winning the war, they're simply being tolerated. Therefor the bare minimum for the US is that the Taliban talks to the Afghan government and make a peace deal. This is a one time deal, that the US leaving the country is on the table. If the Taliban doesn't throw away their arrogance, they will miss the one and only chance for the US to leave and for the Taliban to claim victory. US can literally continue this war for centuries without it effecting them in the slightest.

[Sikandar.]

For ****’s sake.. they are signing up a contract so whenever the USA feels like invading the country again, the taliban can come back under a different title if not the same and give excuse to the good old American heros to come and rescue Afghanistan again.

Can you give people back their arms and limbs?? Can you put flesh and soul back in to skeletons resting in the grave?? No?? **** you and **** your peace offers. That goes to both America and the talibs.

[Firdousi]

which ones? I see nothing but the blathering of a person who is nervous of not making any more money of this useless war.

Its pretty well known that Trump has some mental issues, that he is impulsive and cant control himself. Few weeks ago he said he was pulling out of Syria and now he is slowing it down. Afg might face a similar scenario and its a fact that the USA can go on for decades. USA got money to waste. Its the Taliban and the ANA who are wasting human resources.

Only people who seem to believe that the Taliban have already won its you and this retarded Paki talking bs on PF but once again we should remind you three facts: 1) Taliban control nothing but few mud houses (not even 15% of the country its under their control). 2) Taliban are not the strongest military power in Afghanistan. 3)All you got its historical determinism. Your theory revolves around historical determinism ignoring that the scenario and factors are completely different right now.

[khushal]

Its pretty well known that Trump has some mental issues, that he is impulsive and cant control himself. Few weeks ago he said he was pulling out of Syria and now he is slowing it down. Afg might face a similar scenario and its a fact that the USA can go on for decades. USA got money to waste. Its the Taliban and the ANA who are wasting human resources.

Its not mental issues. He usually changes his stance when MIC senators meet with him like Sen. Graham etc. He uses these withdrawal threats against them. When he doesnt get what he wants from them, He will declare "x" without discussing with anyone in a tweet at 3AM so the papers have to rewrite their headlines and "x" is something that hits MIC pocket book.

The MIC senators may give him what he wants and he backs off but its not because what the Taliban did or did not or the Afghan gov did or did not. The decision is from the outcome of his battle with MIC. The moron that started this thread is someone that makes money from it.

Only people who seem to believe that the Taliban have already won its you and this retarded Paki talking bs on PF but once again we should remind you three facts: 1) Taliban control nothing but few mud houses (not even 15% of the country its under their control). 2) Taliban are not the strongest military power in Afghanistan. 3)All you got its historical determinism. Your theory revolves around historical determinism ignoring that the scenario and factors are completely different right now.

Actually there are many State Department officials and CIA analysts that have said the Afghan war is a lost cause and they said this more than a decade ago.

It doesn't matter what the Taliban controls, they could control nothing. The problem is America's will of funding an inept kleptocratic gov forever and you know this because you and the thread starter seem to think America has a blank check and the Taliban know this, they said, "you got the watches, we have the time."

So the debate here really is; does America have a blank check?

[Iblis_Efreetzai]

Despite my differences with the OP in the past, what he wrote is very insightful.

But the Talban's hubris is not surprising; and is more evidence that Taliban don't think or work for the interests of the welfare of the Afghan people which in turn is evidence that they don't think or work independently of Pakistani Military Establishment and the ISI.

There is no other reason to create such a sticking point than for pandering to Pakistan that sees Afghanistan with a unified government where all Afghan interests are brought to the table, including negotiations and relations with India .....as a threat to their interests ....

Maybe the Ghost of Mulla Umar can cook up some story about how he refused to drink from the Fountain of Kawthar in Jannah because he was so concerned that the poor Afghans couldn't be in heaven to drink with him.

[Insight]

Despite my differences with the OP in the past, what he wrote is very insightful.

But the Talban's hubris is not surprising; and is more evidence that Taliban don't think or work for the interests of the welfare of the Afghan people which in turn is evidence that they don't think or work independently of Pakistani Military Establishment and the ISI.

There is no other reason to create such a sticking point than for pandering to Pakistan that sees Afghanistan with a unified government where all Afghan interests are brought to the table, including negotiations and relations with India .....as a threat to their interests ....

Maybe the Ghost of Mulla Umar can cook up some story about how he refused to drink from the Fountain of Kawthar in Jannah because he was so concerned that the poor Afghans couldn't be in heaven to drink with him.

The Kabul Regime is overplaying the "US can go on forever" idea. Their hubris in thinking they have any say in this matter will be the end of them.

The US does not have a blank checkbook. Trump is fully aware of this.

[Insight]

Despite my differences with the OP in the past, what he wrote is very insightful.

But the Talban's hubris is not surprising; and is more evidence that Taliban don't think or work for the interests of the welfare of the Afghan people which in turn is evidence that they don't think or work independently of Pakistani Military Establishment and the ISI.

There is no other reason to create such a sticking point than for pandering to Pakistan that sees Afghanistan with a unified government where all Afghan interests are brought to the table, including negotiations and relations with India .....as a threat to their interests

I thought you said you were not inclined to either side of this conflict.

Pakistan made the whole US war in Afghanistan possible with supply lines and use of airspace. That means the puppet Kabul regime is a byproduct of Pakistan support too.

If Taliban are Pakistani proxies then the Kabul regime would be a Pakistani super proxy because Pakistan made it possible for them to have the support of over 100000 US/NATO troops and aircraft at one time in this conflict. The Kabul regime is the rubber stamp of the US conflict. The Kabul regime are US proxies