Obituary for Abdul Raziq

[Firdousi]

Well, what may happen when and if the US leaves is Putin may then commit resources and possibly troops.

I am not disagreeing w Iblis and Firdaus in principle. Some may decide that the government is a preferable option. My point is that true (not insinuated and not conspiracy theory orientated) occupation has consequences. We are seeing this today in North and South Korea. South Korea for a long time assumed that they had a stalwart Ally that cared for their lives. However, when things were getting hot and DT was asking About the use of nuclear arms - They were clearly astounded that no part of this calculation took South Korea’s well-being into account. He even went so far as to sacrifice joint exercises if he saw that to his benefit.

We just all have to realize that in this cruel world - No one else other than ourselves has our interests and Our well-being close to their heart.

I have several times stated that Mr Putin wasted a lot of money, resources, soldiers and political capital in a secondary war that is no threat to Russia: Syria. The real threat to Russia lies in Afghanistan. If the Taliban win this war, that will boost Islamist all over the region: Central Asian Republics, Pakistan and China will for sure suffer.

Thats why I do not believe the Afghan government is going to collapse nor the Taliban win this war. Its in the best interest of all those involved in this war to keep the current status quo.

If Russia steps in, Putin will most likely follow or try to repeat the same scenario than in Syria: cede some less important provinces to the Taliban like Idlib was ceded to rebels and their regional sponsor, Turkey. Rebels and their relatives from all over the country will be "relocated" in there. Pakistan will play the same role Turkey is playing in Syria. The Afghan government will keep all the key urban areas such as Kabul, Mazar, Jalalabad, Herat, Ghazni, and so on.

I believe this is the most likely scenario for Afghanistan in coming years.

EDIT Regarding SK, I must say Trump did a good job. All these "allies" are taking advantage of the USA. Lets be serious here: SK has three times bigger population than NK while its economy is 37 times stronger than NK´s. Still, SK army is half of NK´s. Its a shame. Trump should go harsher on all these shameless "allies" such as Europe, Japan, SK, and so on. No wonder he likes so much KSA and UAE. They are the very few "allies" who truly spend money on the American military industry.

[Insight]

I have several times stated that Mr Putin wasted a lot of money, resources, soldiers and political capital in a secondary war that is no threat to Russia: Syria. The real threat to Russia lies in Afghanistan. If the Taliban win this war, that will boost Islamist all over the region: Central Asian Republics, Pakistan and China will for sure suffer.

Thats why I do not believe the Afghan government is going to collapse nor the Taliban win this war. Its in the best interest of all those involved in this war to keep the current status quo.

If Russia steps in, Putin will most likely follow or try to repeat the same scenario than in Syria: cede some less important provinces to the Taliban like Idlib was ceded to rebels and their regional sponsor, Turkey. Rebels and their relatives from all over the country will be "relocated" in there. Pakistan will play the same role Turkey is playing in Syria. The Afghan government will keep all the key urban areas such as Kabul, Mazar, Jalalabad, Herat, Ghazni, and so on.

I believe this is the most likely scenario for Afghanistan in coming years.

EDIT Regarding SK, I must say Trump did a good job. All these "allies" are taking advantage of the USA. Lets be serious here: SK has three times bigger population than NK while its economy is 37 times stronger than NK´s. Still, SK army is half of NK´s. Its a shame. Trump should go harsher on all these shameless "allies" such as Europe, Japan, SK, and so on. No wonder he likes so much KSA and UAE. They are the very few "allies" who truly spend money on the American military industry.

You make some good points. Russia is trying to be relevant.

Russia has been directly undermining the Kabul regime even with todays talks.

Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks


Please read this article when you can about Russia arming the Taliban. I believe it is not significant militarily (small arms) but it is the almost open acknowledgement of the Taliban as a force that is significant.

A Taliban-Russia Team-Up Against ISIS?

[Firdousi]

You make some good points. Russia is trying to be relevant.

Russia has been directly undermining the Kabul regime even with todays talks.

Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks


Please read this article when you can about Russia arming the Taliban. I believe it is not significant militarily (small arms) but it is the almost open acknowledgement of the Taliban as a force that is significant.

A Taliban-Russia Team-Up Against ISIS?

Russia, Iran and Pakistan want to keep the current status quo: bleed the Muricans and the Afghan government but nobody wants a scenario similar to the 90ths with millions of refugees moving into their countries, Islamist movements using Afghanistan to attack neighboring countries, constant state of war and so on.

The current support for the Taliban its being exaggerated. It does not even matter. We need to wait for the Americans to leave. Once the main player is removed from the equation, a new regional order will unfold. Only then we will know what will happen. Only then we will find out how regional countries will behave, what their agenda for Afghanistan is, and so on. But its almost 100% certain that there wont be any collapse. A scenario similar to Syria´s will happen imo.

[Insight]

Russia, Iran and Pakistan want to keep the current status quo: bleed the Muricans and the Afghan government but nobody wants a scenario similar to the 90ths with millions of refugees moving into their countries, Islamist movements using Afghanistan to attack neighboring countries, constant state of war and so on.

The current support for the Taliban its being exaggerated. It does not even matter. We need to wait for the Americans to leave. Once the main player is removed from the equation, a new regional order will unfold. Only then we will know what will happen. Only then we will find out how regional countries will behave, what their agenda for Afghanistan is, and so on. But its almost 100% certain that there wont be any collapse. A scenario similar to Syria´s will happen imo.

I don't believe a Syria scenario will happen in Afghanistan or a 90s scenario.

[khushal]

I don't believe a Syria scenario will happen in Afghanistan or a 90s scenario.

The Afghan gov and the Syrian gov are much different including their respective insurgencies predicting the same result is unlikely. Patreus tried the same strategy in Afghanistan as Iraq during the Obama administration surge and accomplished nothing. Afghans are much different. Tribal people usually cant accept submissive roles. Afghans will take the money but once the money is in his hands, he will do what he wants.

A 90s scenario might take place but on a smaller scale. The warlords of the NA are weak, people wont fight for them when it comes down to it, everyone knows they just filling their own pockets.

[khushal]

It is unlikely Putin will commit troops nor resources to an Afghan project since he would calculate why would he succeed where a much wealthier US failed. A wiser move for Russia would be to commit troops and resources for the protection of Central Asian dictators since that is where his interests are.

The recent talks of the Taliban +all the -stans in Russia are most likely to revolve around this issue.

[Firdousi]

The Afghan gov and the Syrian gov are much different including their respective insurgencies predicting the same result is unlikely. Patreus tried the same strategy in Afghanistan as Iraq during the Obama administration surge and accomplished nothing. Afghans are much different. Tribal people usually cant accept submissive roles. Afghans will take the money but once the money is in his hands, he will do what he wants.

A 90s scenario might take place but on a smaller scale. The warlords of the NA are weak, people wont fight for them when it comes down to it, everyone knows they just filling their own pockets.

Like Bashar and his allies the Ayatollahs and Putin are not corrupts. I can not think of governments more corrupt than those. Do you think people support Bashar out of love? Its out of desperation. Christians, Alevis, Druzes, urban Sunnis,.. are scared of the alternative. Syria´s war was extremely sectarian and ethnic.

[Firdousi]

It is unlikely Putin will commit troops nor resources to an Afghan project since he would calculate why would he succeed where a much wealthier US failed. A wiser move for Russia would be to commit troops and resources for the protection of Central Asian dictators since that is where his interests are.

The recent talks of the Taliban +all the -stans in Russia are most likely to revolve around this issue.

Wealth has nothing to do with this. Its all about values. Murica, with his army of minorities, feminists, transgenders, hipsters, hillbillies and gays would never be as merciless as the Russian army is. Putin would not hesitate to carpet bomb the entire Chahar Bolak district and ethnic cleanse its population and relocate them to a Taliban territory. After all he did it in Zabadani, Ghoutta, Aleppo, Yarmouk, Daraa, etc. USA would never do this. Westerners have values and strong oppositions who would never allow a compromise when it comes to rules of engagement.

Russians are not stupid. They know the Taliban are not reliable. Yesterday the Taliban representatives used to label "Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan" 61 times! All their mumbo jumbo about peace talks and compromise is BS. Russians know Taliban have no interest in power sharing. If the Taliban are so deceitful with their own countrymen,.. why would they honor an agreement with the Russian Kaffir Federation?

Sooner or later, we will find out.

[khushal]

Wealth has nothing to do with this. Its all about values. Murica, with his army of minorities, feminists, transgenders, hipsters, hillbillies and gays would never be as merciless as the Russian army is. Putin would not hesitate to carpet bomb the entire Chahar Bolak district and ethnic cleanse its population and relocate them to a Taliban territory. After all he did it in Zabadani, Ghoutta, Aleppo, Yarmouk, Daraa, etc. USA would never do this. Westerners have values and strong oppositions who would never allow a compromise when it comes to rules of engagement.

Russians are not stupid. They know the Taliban are not reliable. Yesterday the Taliban representatives used to label "Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan" 61 times! All their mumbo jumbo about peace talks and compromise is BS. Russians know Taliban have no interest in power sharing. If the Taliban are so deceitful with their own countrymen,.. why would they honor an agreement with the Russian Kaffir Federation?

Sooner or later, we will find out.

Remember the 80s. Been there done that. 2 million Afghans dead, half the population ran to Pakistan and Iran. What did they accomplish beside creating a frankenstein that bankrupted their Soviet Union and destabilizing their buffer of central Asian dictators. Afghanistan is not Syria.

Also, its completely rational to bypass agreements when you have leverage. Pakistan used to beg Afghans for normal relations, but not any more cause they have leverage. Every rational nations know the Taliban are going to do what they want as long as they have leverage just like any other independent minded nation. When Trump exited the nuclear agreement with Russia, he declared the Russians violated it. When he left the Iran deal, he declared the Iranians violated it. In the end, might is right.

[Insight]

Wealth has nothing to do with this. Its all about values. Murica, with his army of minorities, feminists, transgenders, hipsters, hillbillies and gays would never be as merciless as the Russian army is. Putin would not hesitate to carpet bomb the entire Chahar Bolak district and ethnic cleanse its population and relocate them to a Taliban territory. After all he did it in Zabadani, Ghoutta, Aleppo, Yarmouk, Daraa, etc. USA would never do this. Westerners have values and strong oppositions who would never allow a compromise when it comes to rules of engagement.

Russians are not stupid. They know the Taliban are not reliable. Yesterday the Taliban representatives used to label "Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan" 61 times! All their mumbo jumbo about peace talks and compromise is BS. Russians know Taliban have no interest in power sharing. If the Taliban are so deceitful with their own countrymen,.. why would they honor an agreement with the Russian Kaffir Federation?

Sooner or later, we will find out.

You speak about hypotheticals about Russia fighting the Taliban and bombarding Afghanistan while Russia is the one begging the Taliban to participate in talks.

Russia bombarded Afghanistan before and still were defeated. In fact the their failure in Afghanistan brought the collapse of the USSR

Russians are using Taliban talks to show they have influence. Russia's economy is a disaster. They do not compare to the US or China for that matter. They are wannabes

The world counted the Taliban/Afghan insurgency out, and now sit at the table them.

The Taliban five (Khairkhwa, Fazl, Omari, etc) were imprisoned by the US, were freed, and now are negotiating with the US. Nothing ever lasts forever. This is due to Interests and not slogans of war on terror

Taliban appoint five former Guantanamo inmates to Qatar office to take part in Afghanistan peace talks | The Independent

[Insight]

Like Bashar and his allies the Ayatollahs and Putin are not corrupts. I can not think of governments more corrupt than those. Do you think people support Bashar out of love? Its out of desperation. Christians, Alevis, Druzes, urban Sunnis,.. are scared of the alternative. Syria´s war was extremely sectarian and ethnic.

People don't support Bashar. Foreign occupations of Iran, Lebanon, and Russia support and protect Bashar.

Non-Syrian foreigners protect him

[Insight]

Wealth has nothing to do with this. Its all about values. Murica, with his army of minorities, feminists, transgenders, hipsters, hillbillies and gays would never be as merciless as the Russian army is. Putin would not hesitate to carpet bomb the entire Chahar Bolak district and ethnic cleanse its population and relocate them to a Taliban territory. After all he did it in Zabadani, Ghoutta, Aleppo, Yarmouk, Daraa, etc. USA would never do this. Westerners have values and strong oppositions who would never allow a compromise when it comes to rules of engagement.

Russians are not stupid. They know the Taliban are not reliable. Yesterday the Taliban representatives used to label "Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan" 61 times! All their mumbo jumbo about peace talks and compromise is BS. Russians know Taliban have no interest in power sharing. If the Taliban are so deceitful with their own countrymen,.. why would they honor an agreement with the Russian Kaffir Federation?

Sooner or later, we will find out.

What does Russia have in Afghanistan? An army? Troops.

Please explain why Russia matters to Afghanistan at this moment.

[Firdousi]

You speak about hypotheticals about Russia fighting the Taliban and bombarding Afghanistan while Russia is the one begging the Taliban to participate in talks.

Russia bombarded Afghanistan before and still were defeated. In fact the their failure in Afghanistan brought the collapse of the USSR

Russians are using Taliban talks to show they have influence. Russia's economy is a disaster. They do not compare to the US or China for that matter. They are wannabes

The world counted the Taliban/Afghan insurgency out, and now sit at the table them.

The Taliban five (Khairkhwa, Fazl, Omari, etc) were imprisoned by the US, were freed, and now are negotiating with the US. Nothing ever lasts forever. This is due to Interests and not slogans of war on terror

Taliban appoint five former Guantanamo inmates to Qatar office to take part in Afghanistan peace talks | The Independent

You deluded Taliban fanboys truly amaze me. You live in La La Land. Russia is not begging Taliban for peace talks. What Putin is doing goes beyond the regional conflict. He is trying to thwart the American-led peace talks. Putin knows very well that without a deal, USA will eventually give up and leave. Its in his country´s best interest to sell the narrative about a superpower being defeated a bunch of tribal fighters.

Also this is part of the wider Russian plan to portray itself as an emerging global superpower. This kind of talks increases Russia´s clout and also increases its leverage over other regional countries. Russia is doing what China should be doing but its not: engaging with all regional and continental powers.

Taliban representatives in Moscow signal Russia's rising diplomatic clout - CNN

[Firdousi]

People don't support Bashar. Foreign occupations of Iran, Lebanon, and Russia support and protect Bashar.

Non-Syrian foreigners protect him

Syria is a failed state and it will eventually collapse. Although its a fact that Russia´s airpower and 70k Shia terrorist Jihadis is what is keep Assad´s regime afloat, it would be stupid to ignore the fact that vast majority of rebels are rural Sunni Arabs. Most of urban Sunni Arabs seem to be fine with Bashar. Damascus, Aleppo or Deir Ezzor are a good example of this.

Syria´s war reminds me a lot of Afghanistan during the 90ths and the current war. Most of Taliban are rural Sunni Pashtuns (Syrian rebels are rural Sunni Arabs). Urban Pashtuns and non Pashtuns seem to be fine to a degree with the government just like Urban Arab Sunnis and Shias, Druzes, Alevis,Christians, prefer Bashar over rebels. In Afghanistan we got two stronger regional powers (Iran and Pakistan) involved while other non regional powers such as India are involved. In Syria, Turkey and Israel to a lesser degree play a similar role while other countries such as KSA and UAE are trying to play too. In Afghanistan there are several superpowers involved USA and now increasingly Russia and China. Same thing goes for Syria. And deep down we all know that within a century neither Afghanistan nor Syria will be around. Both will eventually collapse. Nation states are doomed in the Islamic world.

[khushal]

You deluded Taliban fanboys truly amaze me. You live in La La Land. Russia is not begging Taliban for peace talks. What Putin is doing goes beyond the regional conflict. He is trying to thwart the American-led peace talks. Putin knows very well that without a deal, USA will eventually give up and leave. Its in his country´s best interest to sell the narrative about a superpower being defeated a bunch of tribal fighters.

Also this is part of the wider Russian plan to portray itself as an emerging global superpower. This kind of talks increases Russia´s clout and also increases its leverage over other regional countries. Russia is doing what China should be doing but its not: engaging with all regional and continental powers.

Taliban representatives in Moscow signal Russia's rising diplomatic clout - CNN

Insight is right.
The CNN article reaffirms that the Russians are begging the Taliban to join their dialogue platform. The Taliban demand was for the Afghan gov to publicly say they are to attend the meeting "not as the Afghan Gov." First the Afghan gov refused to attend because of this demand but somehow the Russians have convinced them to attend anyways so what this means is that the Russians are bending to Taliban demands rather than the Afghan gov demands further signaling that the Russians view the Taliban more legit than the Afghan gov.

You have to read between the lines my friend.