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We recently discussed this here.
People need to play the devil's advocate and ensure that that they are not denying these serious accusations the scrutiny they deserve. Excellent article to that affect:
How Anti-Immigration Activists Misuse Rape Statistics | Debunking Denialism
Article has a number of embedded figures from the actual raw data reports in these nation states and I only pasted part of it
Here is the conclusion
The author goes on to answer critics in the commentary section to excellent effect.
People need to play the devil's advocate and ensure that that they are not denying these serious accusations the scrutiny they deserve. Excellent article to that affect:
How Anti-Immigration Activists Misuse Rape Statistics | Debunking Denialism
Primer: how does crime statistics work?
Before we look at the data, here is a short primer on what crime statistics is and different ways to measure crime. This is crucial, since a lot of arguments that commonly occur in mainstream, alternative and social media are based on confusing these different measurements.
When looking at crime statistics, there are two main sources of information:
(1) Data from reported crimes: these kinds of datasets provide information about how many crimes of a certain type was reported to the police during a certain time period (such as a calendar year).
(2) Data from crime victim surveys: these datasets come from surveys sent out to many thousands of people who ask them if they have been the victim of particular crimes during e. g. the past 12 months.
These may look similar, but they are in fact completely different and answer very different questions.
Reported crime rates are influenced by the real crime rates, propensity for reporting, trust in the criminal justice system, victim stigma, crime definitions and registration methods. This is a measurement of how many reports of a certain crime that comes in to the police, and thus a measure of the police investigation load.
Crime victim surveys, on the other hand, attempt to measure how many individuals are the victim of a certain crime during each time period i.e. the actual crime rates. Since these are anonymous, is not done by the police and uses the same crime definitions over the years, it is not influenced by the confounders that reported crime rates are.
To make it crystal clear: reported crime rates is not the same as actual crime rates and changes in one does not need to be reflected in the other. In fact, they do not even have to correlate. This is because not all crime reports are true and not all crimes get reported to the police.
If you want information about actual rates, you have to look at crime victim surveys.
The Swedish Crime Survey show that sex crime incidence is unchanged since 2005
The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ) does a crime victim survey every year called The Swedish Crime Survey (“Nationella Trygghetsundersökningen”, abbreviated NTU). They send out surveys to a random and nationally representative sample of 20 000 people in Sweden and about 12 000 people respond (60% response rate). They survey asks people if they have been the victim of certain crimes and other questions related to crime and the criminal justice system. They started at 2005 and summary statistics was recently released for 2014.
Red is any kind of sex crime, blue is robberies, purple is any kind of physical assault, yellow is fraud, dark-cyan is any form of harassment and green is any kind of illegal threats.
The major result from this graph is that not a lot happens over time. Since 2005, most categories are roughly the same or slightly decreasing, although there is some random fluctuation from year to year.
The Swedish Crime Survey attempts to ask additional details about the seriousness of the sex crime in question by asking if the sex crime was accompanied by violence or threats of violence, if the victim was incapacitated by sleeping, alcohol or drugs and if the victim would label it as rape. However, because it cannot be generally expected that victims of sexual crimes fully understand legal definitions of rape, those estimates are more uncertain. The year-to-year variability in rapes is comparable to that of sex crimes generally.
This also means that the doomsday claims made in alternative media and Internet forums about an avalanche of rapes and sex crimes in the wake of immigration is empirically false. So how could so many political ideologues be so profoundly mistaken on this issue? It turns out that it is because they look solely on incidence of reported rapes and not actual incidence of rape.
If actual incidence of rape is unchanged, why are rape reports increasing?
Anti-immigration activists often point out that the observed number of rape reports per year is increasing. This is true, but does not demonstrate that the actual incidence of rape is increasing. As we saw above, it is more or less constant over time (with some year-to-year fluctuations).
So what is going on? Well, the increase is caused by a couple of different factors:
—> Changing definitions of rape: over the past 20 years, Sweden has broadened the definition of rape several times: actions that are comparable to rape (e. g. forced vaginal fisting) was classified as rape in 1998, sex with someone in a helpless state (e. g. sleeping or passed out due to alcohol or drugs) was classified as rape in 2005 and sex with someone in a particularly vulnerable situation (e. g. victim paralyzed with fear) was classified as rape in 2013. Since a higher proportion of sex crimes is classified as rape, the incidence of rape reports increases over time.
—> Increased tendency to report sex crimes: a doubling of the proportion of sex crimes reported to the police occurred between 2005 (10%) to 2011 (20%) according to BRÅ, but this figure fluctuates a bit from year to year. This statistic may be influenced by increase in societal equality, more attention given to sex crimes, and increased trust in the criminal justice system by victims.
—> Extensive registration efforts: Swedish police has made a stronger conscious effort at registering all potential rapes over time: “a lot of effort is made to register all cases that can be suspected to be rape. As this is done at a very early stage of the process, cases are included that later turn out to be some other sex crime, or even no crime at all.” (according to BRÅ).
etc.
Together, these factors increases the incidence of reported rapes. No one is claiming that any individual factor causes all of it and they are not post hoc rationalizations since crime victim survey data shows that the incidence of sex crimes is more or less constant since 2005.
Why naive comparison of incidence of rape reports between Sweden and Denmark is invalid
When anti-immigration activists are faced with data from crime victim surveys that show that actual rates of sex crimes is more or less constant in Sweden from 2005, they rarely change their minds. Instead they either appeal to conspiracy theories about the government hiding statistics (even though it is freely available online), and if they are more sophisticated, they will try to make faulty comparisons with rape statistics from other countries, such as Denmark. However, this is not a valid comparison.
Why not?
BRÅ emphasize the distinction between actual crimes and reported crimes:
Before we look at the data, here is a short primer on what crime statistics is and different ways to measure crime. This is crucial, since a lot of arguments that commonly occur in mainstream, alternative and social media are based on confusing these different measurements.
When looking at crime statistics, there are two main sources of information:
(1) Data from reported crimes: these kinds of datasets provide information about how many crimes of a certain type was reported to the police during a certain time period (such as a calendar year).
(2) Data from crime victim surveys: these datasets come from surveys sent out to many thousands of people who ask them if they have been the victim of particular crimes during e. g. the past 12 months.
These may look similar, but they are in fact completely different and answer very different questions.
Reported crime rates are influenced by the real crime rates, propensity for reporting, trust in the criminal justice system, victim stigma, crime definitions and registration methods. This is a measurement of how many reports of a certain crime that comes in to the police, and thus a measure of the police investigation load.
Crime victim surveys, on the other hand, attempt to measure how many individuals are the victim of a certain crime during each time period i.e. the actual crime rates. Since these are anonymous, is not done by the police and uses the same crime definitions over the years, it is not influenced by the confounders that reported crime rates are.
To make it crystal clear: reported crime rates is not the same as actual crime rates and changes in one does not need to be reflected in the other. In fact, they do not even have to correlate. This is because not all crime reports are true and not all crimes get reported to the police.
If you want information about actual rates, you have to look at crime victim surveys.
The Swedish Crime Survey show that sex crime incidence is unchanged since 2005
The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ) does a crime victim survey every year called The Swedish Crime Survey (“Nationella Trygghetsundersökningen”, abbreviated NTU). They send out surveys to a random and nationally representative sample of 20 000 people in Sweden and about 12 000 people respond (60% response rate). They survey asks people if they have been the victim of certain crimes and other questions related to crime and the criminal justice system. They started at 2005 and summary statistics was recently released for 2014.
Red is any kind of sex crime, blue is robberies, purple is any kind of physical assault, yellow is fraud, dark-cyan is any form of harassment and green is any kind of illegal threats.
The major result from this graph is that not a lot happens over time. Since 2005, most categories are roughly the same or slightly decreasing, although there is some random fluctuation from year to year.
The Swedish Crime Survey attempts to ask additional details about the seriousness of the sex crime in question by asking if the sex crime was accompanied by violence or threats of violence, if the victim was incapacitated by sleeping, alcohol or drugs and if the victim would label it as rape. However, because it cannot be generally expected that victims of sexual crimes fully understand legal definitions of rape, those estimates are more uncertain. The year-to-year variability in rapes is comparable to that of sex crimes generally.
This also means that the doomsday claims made in alternative media and Internet forums about an avalanche of rapes and sex crimes in the wake of immigration is empirically false. So how could so many political ideologues be so profoundly mistaken on this issue? It turns out that it is because they look solely on incidence of reported rapes and not actual incidence of rape.
If actual incidence of rape is unchanged, why are rape reports increasing?
Anti-immigration activists often point out that the observed number of rape reports per year is increasing. This is true, but does not demonstrate that the actual incidence of rape is increasing. As we saw above, it is more or less constant over time (with some year-to-year fluctuations).
So what is going on? Well, the increase is caused by a couple of different factors:
—> Changing definitions of rape: over the past 20 years, Sweden has broadened the definition of rape several times: actions that are comparable to rape (e. g. forced vaginal fisting) was classified as rape in 1998, sex with someone in a helpless state (e. g. sleeping or passed out due to alcohol or drugs) was classified as rape in 2005 and sex with someone in a particularly vulnerable situation (e. g. victim paralyzed with fear) was classified as rape in 2013. Since a higher proportion of sex crimes is classified as rape, the incidence of rape reports increases over time.
—> Increased tendency to report sex crimes: a doubling of the proportion of sex crimes reported to the police occurred between 2005 (10%) to 2011 (20%) according to BRÅ, but this figure fluctuates a bit from year to year. This statistic may be influenced by increase in societal equality, more attention given to sex crimes, and increased trust in the criminal justice system by victims.
—> Extensive registration efforts: Swedish police has made a stronger conscious effort at registering all potential rapes over time: “a lot of effort is made to register all cases that can be suspected to be rape. As this is done at a very early stage of the process, cases are included that later turn out to be some other sex crime, or even no crime at all.” (according to BRÅ).
etc.
Together, these factors increases the incidence of reported rapes. No one is claiming that any individual factor causes all of it and they are not post hoc rationalizations since crime victim survey data shows that the incidence of sex crimes is more or less constant since 2005.
Why naive comparison of incidence of rape reports between Sweden and Denmark is invalid
When anti-immigration activists are faced with data from crime victim surveys that show that actual rates of sex crimes is more or less constant in Sweden from 2005, they rarely change their minds. Instead they either appeal to conspiracy theories about the government hiding statistics (even though it is freely available online), and if they are more sophisticated, they will try to make faulty comparisons with rape statistics from other countries, such as Denmark. However, this is not a valid comparison.
Why not?
BRÅ emphasize the distinction between actual crimes and reported crimes:
Here is the conclusion
Conclusion
The moral of the story is that you should not get your information about crime statistics from shady blogs who make trivial statistical errors (like confusing reported and actual crimes) or Youtube videos. Instead, go to the original scientific papers or crime victim surveys, read them and understand the methodology, results, limitations and conclusions. There are no shortcuts to substantial knowledge.
The increasing rates of reported rape in Sweden is primarily caused by a repeated expansion of the rape definition, the fact that police is consciously reported all rapes as individual reports and an observed increase in the tendency to report rape. The differences between rates of reported rape between e. g. Sweden and Denmark is caused by differences in rape definition, differences in registration methods and efforts to rape all sex crimes that might be rape as rape.
In the end, it is doubly ironic that anti-immigration activists say that they refuse to read mainstream media because of its bias, yet (1) are strongly influenced by the increase in sensationalist coverage of violent crime by mainstream media and (2) are so willing to believe claims made by “alternative” media that are unsupported and often contradicted by actual crime victim survey results.
The moral of the story is that you should not get your information about crime statistics from shady blogs who make trivial statistical errors (like confusing reported and actual crimes) or Youtube videos. Instead, go to the original scientific papers or crime victim surveys, read them and understand the methodology, results, limitations and conclusions. There are no shortcuts to substantial knowledge.
The increasing rates of reported rape in Sweden is primarily caused by a repeated expansion of the rape definition, the fact that police is consciously reported all rapes as individual reports and an observed increase in the tendency to report rape. The differences between rates of reported rape between e. g. Sweden and Denmark is caused by differences in rape definition, differences in registration methods and efforts to rape all sex crimes that might be rape as rape.
In the end, it is doubly ironic that anti-immigration activists say that they refuse to read mainstream media because of its bias, yet (1) are strongly influenced by the increase in sensationalist coverage of violent crime by mainstream media and (2) are so willing to believe claims made by “alternative” media that are unsupported and often contradicted by actual crime victim survey results.
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