ISIS and Afghansitan

[Azmal]

There is no secret that Taliban war is to further Pakistan interest in Afghanistan and region, but its also an open secret that low ranking Talib fighters and field commanders are inside Afghanistan, the higher ups and commands are in Pakistan with their families--hostage of ISI. The emergence of ISIS in region has provide Afghanistan with opportunity to capitalize by creating distance between Taliban higher ups and field commanders---there are so many news of delusion among Taliban fighters and field commanders and higher up---recently in Helmand there were fight between a Taliban commander turn ISIS and Taliban. Off course with India $ and resources this will effectively take the war deep inside Pakistan and will end up in paying Pakistan back for her crimes of 40 years against Afghans! In my opinion the killing of Taliban commander turn ISIS in Helmand was big mistake by Kabul.

[Khostai]

How was that a big mistake? What else could they do?

[Azmal]

How was that a big mistake? What else could they do?

Use him, just like Mullah Fazullah. Ghani has 2 demands from Pakistan--Stop using terrorism as arm of their foreign policy and give Afghanistan access to warm water. Both of these demands are suicidal for Pakistan. Terrorism is the political backbone of Pakistan military and the weaken of military will be weaken of Pakistani state---for only thing holding Pakistan together is the military. Indeed even access to warm waters will undermine Pakistan—for another tramp card of Pakistan over Pashton is economy—thanks to British.

Note: I always thought Turkey’s general that mediate the border between Iran and Afghanistan was pro-Afghanistan—only to find out he was actually a British agent who wanted to keep Afghanistan landlocked. Indeed it was Mohammad Ali Jenah that give Zidan, Chakhaabar(Irani Balochistan) to Iran— successfully dividing and undermining Balochs---just as British has done to Afghan with Durand line.

[Khostai]

Use him, just like Mullah Fazullah. Ghani has 2 demands from Pakistan--Stop using terrorism as arm of their foreign policy and give Afghanistan access to warm water. Both of these demands are suicidal for Pakistan. Terrorism is the political backbone of Pakistan military and the weaken of military will be weaken of Pakistani state---for only thing holding Pakistan together is the military. Indeed even access to warm waters will undermine Pakistan—for another tramp card of Pakistan over Pashton is economy—thanks to British.

Note: I always thought Turkey’s general that mediate the border between Iran and Afghanistan was pro-Afghanistan—only to find out he was actually a British agent who wanted to keep Afghanistan landlocked. Indeed it was Mohammad Ali Jenah that give Zidan, Chakhaabar(Irani Balochistan) to Iran— successfully dividing and undermining Balochs---just as British has done to Afghan with Durand line.

That is dangerous, things like this always backfire, and besides doing low and immoral thing like what Pakis do is not good. It will damage us even more.

[Azmal]

That is dangerous, things like this always backfire, and besides doing low and immoral thing like what Pakis do is not good. It will damage us even more.

I know it is immoral and those ISIS thugs are pure evil---but there is no other way---at the end Afghan state must survive--enough of our blood be shed for sake of Punjos and Irono dogs!

[Yousufzai]

The moment ISIS becomes popular in Afghanistan, everything will be over. It will spread like wildfire. The Afghan government and security forces now are a joke; they might just disappear like the Iraqi authorities did (who were much more powerful and organized). The Taliban will be the new moderates. There will be civil war again, and the United States will just have another excuse to meddle in the region and ruin things more. Maybe Iran will interfere too. The Tajik nationalists will try to have more autonomy, or even to secede. And of course ISIS will spread to FATA and Pakhtunkhwa too. That will give the Pakistani army the pretext they need to repress Pashtuns in Pakistan. ISIS will be the end of Pashtuns.

[marwat]

The moment ISIS becomes popular in Afghanistan, everything will be over. It will spread like wildfire. The Afghan government and security forces now are a joke; they might just disappear like the Iraqi authorities did (who were much more powerful and organized). The Taliban will be the new moderates. There will be civil war again, and the United States will just have another excuse to meddle in the region and ruin things more. Maybe Iran will interfere too. The Tajik nationalists will try to have more autonomy, or even to secede. And of course ISIS will spread to FATA and Pakhtunkhwa too. That will give the Pakistani army the pretext they need to repress Pashtuns in Pakistan. ISIS will be the end of Pashtuns.

very pessimist, this is not going to happen,cool man

[Yousufzai]

very pessimist, this is not going to happen,cool man

I hope your right. But mark my words: if ISIS does gain a foothold in Afghanistan, Pashtuns are finished. I don't care if someone is in Balkh or Swat or Pishin, we'll all be affected. We're not like the Kurds that we're in a state to put up any resistance. ISIS will roll right over us, and the Americans and Pakistanis will have the excuse they need to repress us further.

[marwat]

I hope your right. But mark my words: if ISIS does gain a foothold in Afghanistan, Pashtuns are finished. I don't care if someone is in Balkh or Swat or Pishin, we'll all be affected. We're not like the Kurds that we're in a state to put up any resistance. ISIS will roll right over us, and the Americans and Pakistanis will have the excuse they need to repress us further.

i share you sentiment, but i had to disagree that it will be able to roll out to pakistan and gain ground, you are not taking into account the giant pakistan army and air power, pashtun land were talibanized on purpose under the nose of army, but there is no purpose to breed IS, IS is not up for experimentation, punjab is more fertile for IS than KP, lashkar jangvi and ASWJ share the same ideology with IS, technically IS will came the same day in punjab and KP if it ever happen

[Yousufzai]

i share you sentiment, but i had to disagree that it will be able to roll out to pakistan and gain ground, you are not taking into account the giant pakistan army and air power, pashtun land were talibanized on purpose under the nose of army, but there is no purpose to breed IS, IS is not up for experimentation, punjab is more fertile for IS than KP, lashkar jangvi and ASWJ share the same ideology with IS, technically IS will came the same day in punjab and KP if it ever happen

You're right that a lot of Punjabis are sympathetic to groups like LeJ and even the Punjabi Taliban, but I'd have to disagree with your other points. The TTP forming in FATA was not in Pakistan's interests, but it still happened. The Pakistani army can't even control the tribal areas anymore, unless they launch full scale operations like Zarb-e-Azb in every district, and that obviously won't happen. There are reports that ISIS is fighting the Taliban in Ghazni and is kidnapping people in Kandahar. I even read about some operatives working in the northern provinces. I just really hope that this doesn't continue, because if it does, all of Pashtunistan will suffer.

[Azmal]

The moment ISIS becomes popular in Afghanistan, everything will be over. It will spread like wildfire. The Afghan government and security forces now are a joke; they might just disappear like the Iraqi authorities did (who were much more powerful and organized). The Taliban will be the new moderates. There will be civil war again, and the United States will just have another excuse to meddle in the region and ruin things more. Maybe Iran will interfere too. The Tajik nationalists will try to have more autonomy, or even to secede. And of course ISIS will spread to FATA and Pakhtunkhwa too. That will give the Pakistani army the pretext they need to repress Pashtuns in Pakistan. ISIS will be the end of Pashtuns.

Groups like Taliban and ISIS are all created for certain purpose and agenda and need outside resources in order to sustain themselves. Expert estimate that Pakistan spends around 140 to 200 million dollars to sustain Afghan Taliban---not sure how much Afghanistan spend to counter—on of Mullah Fazullah Taliban. Off course Afghanistan would need India help in order to prop ISIS against Taliban/Pakistan and take the war deep inside Pakistan. Recently Rahmatullah Nabil directory of NSD during a WolosiJirga hearing stated that in term of intelligence we are on top of ISIS in Afghanistan. I think it will be very manageable to put ISIS against Pakistan—off course that would require approval of good US of A but judging from strategic alliance with India—don’t think they would care much.
As for as Tajik nationalist---i don’t think there is such a term—other than a few Ismahli Badakhshi like Pedram(whose wife is Irani) who are barking anti-Pashton bs online. after all this blood and cry—a good 10 years of no state at all…two million death, 1.5 million handicap, 6 million refugees …and 10-15 million Landmine and a wet dream of strategic depth … Afghanistan not only survived intact…but there was and is absolutely no secessionist movement at all.
I honestly think the reason Punjo generals are so in early for Taliban peace talk is due to this fact---pakistan will go in flame if Kabul plays the card right.

[Azmal]

I hope your right. But mark my words: if ISIS does gain a foothold in Afghanistan, Pashtuns are finished. I don't care if someone is in Balkh or Swat or Pishin, we'll all be affected. We're not like the Kurds that we're in a state to put up any resistance. ISIS will roll right over us, and the Americans and Pakistanis will have the excuse they need to repress us further.

I know pakis will fight back but in long term it will lead to pashtons freedom from punjos...Pakistan state is the military--once the bubble of paki military is burst there will go Pakistan.

[Kushan Prince]

All of these are unconfirmed rumours. ISIS hasn't even reached an inch to Afghanistan yet. They would have to get through Iran first and the Iranians will fire back at them at their border staples. The only reason ISIS thinks it can walk into Afghanistan is due to their unhealthy obsession with "Khorosan." I'm pretty sure the Talibs would stop them at the vicinity of Herat if they ever tried to invade. As for Tajik nationalists, they do indeed exist but mostly on the internet since its easier for them to spread their racist vomit since no one is watching over them.

[Yousufzai]

All of these are unconfirmed rumours. ISIS hasn't even reached an inch to Afghanistan yet. They would have to get through Iran first and the Iranians will fire back at them at their border staples. The only reason ISIS thinks it can walk into Afghanistan is due to their unhealthy obsession with "Khorosan." I'm pretty sure the Talibs would stop them at the vicinity of Herat if they ever tried to invade. As for Tajik nationalists, they do indeed exist but mostly on the internet since its easier for them to spread their racist vomit since no one is watching over them.

But I don't think ISIS operates like an army. They don't advance together like some horde. What if some lunatics in Pashtunistan just band together and pledge allegiance to ISIS and start going crazy? And after that happens, a ton of foreign fighters start pouring in? That's how Al Qaeda spread in Yemen and Somalia. I really hope you're right though, man.

[marwat]

But I don't think ISIS operates like an army. They don't advance together like some horde. What if some lunatics in Pashtunistan just band together and pledge allegiance to ISIS and start going crazy? And after that happens, a ton of foreign fighters start pouring in? That's how Al Qaeda spread in Yemen and Somalia. I really hope you're right though, man.

TTP jummat ahrar, and jundullah already declared allegiance to IS during the operation zarb e azab, lashkar e jangavi will be the third one. these three groups are the most powerful. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar is recent split from TTP and have some senior taliban leader, they have very strong foothold inside Karachi too. they will give the PK army very good ride for sure just wait for the end of operation.