Pakistan's Swat Operation and Failure

[BarakzaiAbdali]

[MENTION=2]Admin Khan[/MENTION]

As Admin Khan noted, insurgencies and guerilla warfare doesn't work in the conventional theater the way Pakistan understands war (and loses war).

http://www.nation.com.pk/national/15...target-killers

He discussed in the Zarb-e-Azb thread how the strategy utilized world round by guerillas is to slip away, lay low, wait, and return in some way, shape, or form.

Despite the numerous documented human rights violations, Pakistan has failed in its efforts to clear Swat, despite calling that its shining example.

Lets look at some key evidences from that article:

but people of Swat are still under the constant fear of target killers who from time to time attack pro-government and peace-loving people in the valley. In a fresh incident on Sunday night (July 14), unknown killers targeted Biadar Khan, 29, a resident of Roringar village in tehsil Matta in Swat. According to his relatives, he had neither a family feud nor any kind of rivalry with anyone, but he openly opposed militants.

The article makes it a point to note:

The rising incidents of target killing in the presence of security forces have worried the peaceful inhabitants of Swat. These incidents have also raised questions about the performance of law and order agencies.

In an excellent fashion, the article points out that this result is like Archimedes water displacement concept... they did not succeed in eliminating the problem, but merely displacing it to another locale:

Maulana Fazlullah and his men fled Afghanistan and remained out of sight for almost three years but in 2012, the Swati Taliban re-emerged and they started attacking Pakistani security forces near Pak-Afghan border in Dir, Bajaur and Chitral.

And then of course, like as in Iraq's Anbar, the pace is escalating:

Afterwards, target killing rapidly increased in Swat and Pashtun nationalist leaders like members of Awami National Party (ANP), Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party (PMAP), members of village defence councils (VDCs) and other pro-government elders were targeted by the unseen killers. From 2009 to 2012, around 12 eminent persons were killed while during 2013, nine leaders of peace committees were targeted in Swat district.
Mukhtiar Khan Yousafzai, provincial head of PMAP and the head of Swat Aman Jirga, said the army has time and again claimed clearing Swat valley of all kind of terrorists but the people are being targeted and killed in broad daylight.

And once again, as an artifact from the foolishly executed Zarb-e-Azb human rights disasters:

"The recent surge in target killings is a reaction to the military operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan. I think some of the Swati Taliban might have reached Swat from Waziristan and they are now targeting the pro-govt elders," said Idrees Khan.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

These Operation doesn't mean 100% elimination of Talibs though they are forced into a position of not able to conduct terrorist activities apart from certain target killing and hide and run attacks on security check posts.

Hell even the recent Hangu blast was done by Local anti shia elements than Mainstream TTP.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

These Operation doesn't mean 100% elimination of Talibs though they are forced into a position of not able to conduct terrorist activities apart from certain target killing and hide and run attacks on security check posts.

Hell even the recent Hangu blast was done by Local anti shia elements than Mainstream TTP.

That is all one needs to do in guerilla warfare. Biding time, costing your adversary inordinate financial and emotional capital etc. is a part and parcel of all of this. The hit and run attacks are also on high profile people making their gains the losses of the Pakistani establishment.

That is why the Nation is correct in its assessment regarding this being a failure.

The irony here is if the aid spigot dries up, Pakistan has stretched its forces thin at the behest of others and that will show as fissures and cracks in its (in?)stability

[BarakzaiAbdali]

These Operation doesn't mean 100% elimination of Talibs though they are forced into a position of not able to conduct terrorist activities apart from certain target killing and hide and run attacks on security check posts.

Hell even the recent Hangu blast was done by Local anti shia elements than Mainstream TTP.

Besides, a Pashtun person who left the Army college in disgust told me how whiskey flows freely on their "hell weeks" and I think the habits of Musharraf and the other officers in service show that they hardly have the demeanor of professional soldiers - so this was bound to happen as their ability to clear and hold remains questionable. Perhaps if they join alcoholics anonymous they can clean up their acts and not go into withdrawal/delirium tremens and shoot phantom militants.

[Smarty]

^Faujis also send their wives to the beds of seniors, for promotion.

[jankhan]

Army is still on stand by position in swat even after six years of operation. Still there is target killing in day times in open markets and streets. Still there are curfews and still the same checkposts and daily checkings of locals as it was six years before.
Still army is disturbing the life of local people. In yesterday's newspaper there was a news that in minglore, early in the morning in ramadaan army men started entering people's houses and forced them to make some contruction for them in this hot summer and in ramadaan. People complained to the govt and high authorities that they were not for this work. Army should hire labour force for this.
This is not the only incident. There are such thousands of incidents where they humiliate people. Disrespecting their culture and religion anf act like be sharam animals.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

That is all one needs to do in guerilla warfare. Biding time, costing your adversary inordinate financial and emotional capital etc. is a part and parcel of all of this. The hit and run attacks are also on high profile people making their gains the losses of the Pakistani establishment.

That is why the Nation is correct in its assessment regarding this being a failure.

The irony here is if the aid spigot dries up, Pakistan has stretched its forces thin at the behest of others and that will show as fissures and cracks in its (in?)stability

NaNa,What is the purpose of the Zarbazb/swat operation??What?

Establish writ of country in the region,force them into run and cessation of there terrorism nature activities and believe me army is more than successful.

Let the operation end and believe me you will notice non existing TTP origin terrorism in Pakistan.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Besides, a Pashtun person who left the Army college in disgust told me how whiskey flows freely on their "hell weeks" and I think the habits of Musharraf and the other officers in service show that they hardly have the demeanor of professional soldiers - so this was bound to happen as their ability to clear and hold remains questionable. Perhaps if they join alcoholics anonymous they can clean up their acts and not go into withdrawal/delirium tremens and shoot phantom militants.

Professional soldier?It is indeed true that the military of Pakistan has always been very secular in nature and it is pretty dull to question the career of soldier based off Alcohol and 18+ parties.

I can tell you that Alcohol consumption is quite common in Pakistan(even students) but so is around the world.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

NaNa,What is the purpose of the Zarbazb/swat operation??What?

Establish writ of country in the region,force them into run and cessation of there terrorism nature activities and believe me army is more than successful.

Let the operation end and believe me you will notice non existing TTP origin terrorism in Pakistan.

I cant believe you because the evidences, subsequent events, and now current events are in stark contrast with your propagandistic narrative.

Its easy to tell where you are coming from. You have yourself said

1) You have some personal qualm with them (meaning something happened to a friend, family member)
2) You have constant internet access in a third world country unlike the majority of middle and massive lower class people
3) You noted your father was a higher up at some point

All these things together show me that your concerns are not about truth, justice, or even understanding whether Islamic Jurisprudence supports you or them - rather its primarily to support your status and the status quo.

With that in mind, I have to go to the evidence at hand and the audacity of their attacks, the Swat report above, Their ability to seamlessly relocate shows you are clearly in the wrong.

Admin was astute when he tried to explain to you that the same things were said by Maliki et al and those people who dealt an even more decimating hit to Anbar insurgents.

Through all the hits Pakistan has given, these guys survive another day and have safe havens across the border and all around the rest of the country.

Regarding taking "undeveloped areas" and "establishing the rule of law" that is laughable since a state that voted in Zardari cannot by that very fact support the rule of law.

Its like doing an open heart surgery and not even evaluating the cardiac performance on the operating table and then just yelling "It worked! It Worked!" Time is going to tell as will a series of factors:

1) How far Pakistan is willing to spread its unprofessional forces
2) How far this takes Pakistan away from its other numerous insurrections and border skirmishes
3) How dependent Pakistan is on outside aid to sustain this formation
4) Successful insurgencies have safe havens, and this one has many many many safe havens

My suspicion is the answer to all these questions, coupled to Pakistan's inability to control the will of Kabul is going to lead to rocky times for Pakistan.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Professional soldier?It is indeed true that the military of Pakistan has always been very secular in nature and it is pretty dull to question the career of soldier based off Alcohol and 18+ parties.

I can tell you that Alcohol consumption is quite common in Pakistan(even students) but so is around the world.

Then they can hardly claim to be "holy warriors." One Dateline film showed this Panjabi Colonel shaking in his boots in Waziristan trying to motivate his soldiers shouting "You are the HOLY warriors, not them" Sounds like he knew the hearsay and that his men understood history and reality better than him.

I agree with you about the nature of Pakistan's military - basically validating all the criticism of it from its own citizens and the Wazirs that took refuge in Khost who loathe it for those very reasons.

Another example of their blatant unprofessionalism is the fact that the military pretty much runs and controls the country and calls the shots. In developed nations civilian administrations oversee the military and call the shots. In essence, they are a mercenary force more than a professional force.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

I cant believe you because the evidences, subsequent events, and now current events are in stark contrast with your propagandistic narrative.

Its easy to tell where you are coming from. You have yourself said

1) You have some personal qualm with them (meaning something happened to a friend, family member)
2) You have constant internet access in a third world country unlike the majority of middle and massive lower class people
3) You noted your father was a higher up at some point

All these things together show me that your concerns are not about truth, justice, or even understanding whether Islamic Jurisprudence supports you or them - rather its primarily to support your status and the status quo.

With that in mind, I have to go to the evidence at hand and the audacity of their attacks, the Swat report above, Their ability to seamlessly relocate shows you are clearly in the wrong.

Admin was astute when he tried to explain to you that the same things were said by Maliki et al and those people who dealt an even more decimating hit to Anbar insurgents.

Through all the hits Pakistan has given, these guys survive another day and have safe havens across the border and all around the rest of the country.

Regarding taking "undeveloped areas" and "establishing the rule of law" that is laughable since a state that voted in Zardari cannot by that very fact support the rule of law.

Its like doing an open heart surgery and not even evaluating the cardiac performance on the operating table and then just yelling "It worked! It Worked!" Time is going to tell as will a series of factors:

1) How far Pakistan is willing to spread its unprofessional forces
2) How far this takes Pakistan away from its other numerous insurrections and border skirmishes
3) How dependent Pakistan is on outside aid to sustain this formation
4) Successful insurgencies have safe havens, and this one has many many many safe havens

My suspicion is the answer to all these questions, coupled to Pakistan's inability to control the will of Kabul is going to lead to rocky times for Pakistan.

This Bold Part made me interested only but again upto you believe or not.

**Pakistan has given up all the concepts of Strategic Depth,Death of pashtunistan Movement(Already dead),controlling Afghanistan through proxy

Pakistan Doctrine toward Afghanistan

*Defeat Insurgency around Pak-Afghan Border
*Fence/Mine the border with Afghanistan
*Limit the cross border movement B/w Pakistan Afghanistan

With all this if the Govt is Friendly to Pakistan(e.g Dr Ashraf Ghani) than this is a Good addition.

NOTE:My Personal rivalry with talibs is not based of something happening to my friend/Family/relative.If Allah will,One day i will tell you the reason

[Smarty]

Army is still on stand by position in swat even after six years of operation. Still there is target killing in day times in open markets and streets. Still there are curfews and still the same checkposts and daily checkings of locals as it was six years before.
Still army is disturbing the life of local people. In yesterday's newspaper there was a news that in minglore, early in the morning in ramadaan army men started entering people's houses and forced them to make some contruction for them in this hot summer and in ramadaan. People complained to the govt and high authorities that they were not for this work. Army should hire labour force for this.
This is not the only incident. There are such thousands of incidents where they humiliate people. Disrespecting their culture and religion anf act like be sharam animals.

Dont expect sharam from them, they trade their wives or send their wives to their senior's for quick promotion. They have sharab parties, they dont pray nimaz at all and urinate in standing position like animals. The senior fauji cadets keep eye on junior cadets, when they spot a good looking one, they demand sex in the name of fooling.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

This Bold Part made me interested only but again upto you believe or not.

**Pakistan has given up all the concepts of Strategic Depth,Death of pashtunistan Movement(Already dead),controlling Afghanistan through proxy

Pakistan Doctrine toward Afghanistan

*Defeat Insurgency around Pak-Afghan Border
*Fence/Mine the border with Afghanistan
*Limit the cross border movement B/w Pakistan Afghanistan

With all this if the Govt is Friendly to Pakistan(e.g Dr Ashraf Ghani) than this is a Good addition.

NOTE:My Personal rivalry with talibs is not based of something happening to my friend/Family/relative.If Allah will,One day i will tell you the reason

I doubt it, as I said, recent incidents where India offers something or another raises ire and complaints all the way across the world to Washington.

It is true that Pakistan created the mess in that it thought its nonuniformed soldiers (or those it viewed as such) would just go on unquestioningly doing their bidding as if Pakistan was more important to these types than God. It was sorely surprised with the reaction and we saw it realizing this even when Nek Muhammad Wazir was alive.

So now perhaps Pakistan sees two competing threats: a religious establishment returning to Kabul and doing what Mullah Omar did to them when they demanded Durand line recognition and he scoffed, resulting in those with now blood feuds with Pakistan having permanent safe haven.

VS

Prior strategic depth concept.

What they do not realize is that if nothing else, Kabul is getting some bargaining chips and, like Daud Khan, there will be a time and a place where Kabul starts needling Pakistan again. Remember, Afghans have long long memories and laying low is an art they have perfected.

The number of angles with which to take on Pakistan (Baloch, now Tribals, etc) shall remain numerous.

Pakistan created this headache for itself instead of taking a principled stand.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

I doubt it, as I said, recent incidents where India offers something or another raises ire and complaints all the way across the world to Washington.

It is true that Pakistan created the mess in that it thought its nonuniformed soldiers (or those it viewed as such) would just go on unquestioningly doing their bidding as if Pakistan was more important to these types than God. It was sorely surprised with the reaction and we saw it realizing this even when Nek Muhammad Wazir was alive.

So now perhaps Pakistan sees two competing threats: a religious establishment returning to Kabul and doing what Mullah Omar did to them when they demanded Durand line recognition and he scoffed, resulting in those with now blood feuds with Pakistan having permanent safe haven.

VS

Prior strategic depth concept.

What they do not realize is that if nothing else, Kabul is getting some bargaining chips and, like Daud Khan, there will be a time and a place where Kabul starts needling Pakistan again. Remember, Afghans have long long memories and laying low is an art they have perfected.

The number of angles with which to take on Pakistan (Baloch, now Tribals, etc) shall remain numerous.

Pakistan created this headache for itself instead of taking a principled stand.

Mullah Omar can't take over Afghanistan and even if he does(I still doubt).

Let suppose even if he does,Pakistan won't care whether the durrandline is recognized or not if they have fences it by than.even without the fence,Mullah omar won't be able to take over pashtuns part of Pakistan because the local will offer resistance.You do consider me a patriotic Pakistan but i can tell you that the Pashtuns of Pakistan are many times more patriotic than i can ever be.The difference is that like punjabis,They are blind patriotic and i am not.

anyway in the end be it Pakistan,India or USA.all of them are using Afghanistan for purpose.Probably china is the only firm interested in development and sincere.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Mullah Omar can't take over Afghanistan and even if he does(I still doubt).

Let suppose even if he does,Pakistan won't care whether the durrandline is recognized or not if they have fences it by than.even without the fence,Mullah omar won't be able to take over pashtuns part of Pakistan because the local will offer resistance.You do consider me a patriotic Pakistan but i can tell you that the Pashtuns of Pakistan are many times more patriotic than i can ever be.The difference is that like punjabis,They are blind patriotic and i am not.

anyway in the end be it Pakistan,India or USA.all of them are using Afghanistan for purpose.Probably china is the only firm interested in development and sincere.

I didn't mean he would take it. I meant safe havens and what not. I am saying either situation spells a problem for Pakistan.

Its actions are obviously for the camera and not for true interests.