Presidential Elections

[ComradePashtun]

This looks like a pro iran-russia-india team.

Lets assume the elections are fair and everybody gets the opportunity to vote. Still it is highly unlikely for abdullah to win.

Why highly unlikely? Please elaborate.

I thought you didn't believe in elections, why wish every one the opportunity to vote then? What a contradiction you are!

[ComradePashtun]

How come BA, Admin Khan, Tor Khan, Toramana and the rest of you are not commenting? Much of the future is staked in this election yet there is not much attention.

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

Why highly unlikely? Please elaborate.

Because Western countries won't support a president like him due to his close ties with Iran.

Likewise, other political factions will try to sabotage his presidency because of his partisanship with a specific faction.

I thought you didn't believe in elections, why wish every the opportunity to vote then? What a contradiction you are!

Disbelieving in democracy and election means disbelieving that democracy and elections are the means to achieve goodness.

What is good is prescribed by Allah. Likewise Allah prescribed the means to attain goodness.

Claiming to know alternative way to good is disbelief in Allah.

That however does not mean I am blind to situation in Afghanistan and the probability of winning and loosing.

Mind you I study political science at a secular liberal-democratic institution in Western Europe.

[Badlun]

Badlun,

Abdullah is definitely the strongest contender. Many media Afghan news sites are reporting that he even got the backing of Fahim and Ismael Khan.

Karzai's and Mr. Bostan's team's candidacy of Zalmay Rasoul is in tatters.

Alliances change like sand in Afghanistan and the recent shift as alluded above of Fahim and Ismael Khan endorsing Abdullah's candidacy further validate Zalmay Rasoul's candidacy as a specious move by Karzai. Bostan's entire theory of dividing the opposition and how deep Zalmay Rasoul has roots among Pashtuns is nothing but pulled from thin air. It is almost certain that Hezb-i-Islami rather support Abdullah x 2. So much for his roots.

It is indeed a sad scenario emerging. I concur with brother randolph that we may indeed be for a rude awakening. Ashraf Ghani would have been a much better choice, but Karzai chose to back a lame ass guy who he hopes to serve as his puppet.

I have met Ashraf Ghani many times and had detailed conversation with him. He can be definitely the best candidate. He is a thorough gentleman and a great Pashtun both by language and character. Even now he can start talking to people and getting his public support stronger. The problem is that campaigning in Pashtun areas is highly risky because of Taliban.

I do not know Abdullah Abdullah personally. His father was Pashtun from Kandahar but does he speak Pashto in public places frequently and does he behaves like a Pashtun? Which side of his personality is stronger,Pashtun or Tajik/parsiwan?

[ComradePashtun]

Khurasani,

Hold on. He is almost certainly more closer to West than Iran. Jamiat and Ahmad Shah Masoud and his men has had testy relation with Iran.

It is a fact that U.S. supported him in previous elections. I also have my doubts whether if the West and U.S. will this time around endorse him for number of reasons namely his willingness and efficacy with regards to peace and settlement with Taliban and his merits to lead Afghanistan in what will be critical and difficult years ahead. But there is a limit in to how much that means.

Can you explain which other political factions will sabotage? The NA is the most powerful group with a lot of power within the government and across all institutions. Their most powerful ex foe, of course Taliban more powerful, have joined them. What other factions could check them and by what mean if you may answer?

I am still not getting it. So is elections haram or halal and you must be for it since you wish for other to take part in it? So does practical reality allow you to eschew what Islam commands you then?

[randolph85]

Because Western countries won't support a president like him due to his close ties with Iran.

Likewise, other political factions will try to sabotage his presidency because of his partisanship with a specific faction.

His ties to iran aren't any stronger than the karzai camps. his and other northern alliance leaders relationship with iran was more due to desperation for strong allies during the 90s rather than ideology. now that they have american money and weapons, they don't need to depend on iran as much any more.

the coalition will only hold as long as all parties get what they are promised or are not alienated enough to actively sabotage the process. it worked for karzai for most of his run.

[ComradePashtun]

I have met Ashraf Ghani many times and had detailed conversation with him. He can be definitely the best candidate. He is a thorough gentleman and a great Pashtun both by language and character. Even now he can start talking to people and getting his public support stronger. The problem is that campaigning in Pashtun areas is highly risky because of Taliban.

I do not know Abdullah Abdullah personally. His father was Pashtun from Kandahar but does he speak Pashto in public places frequently and does he behaves like a Pashtun? Which side of his personality is stronger,Pashtun or Tajik/parsiwan?

Your Excellency the man I am increasingly coming to know as perfidious, liar, unprincipled and above all not loyal our collective interests but his own personal ones probably has made it difficult for him to pull things together now.

I don't know much about Abdullah but I do not like the guy. What I said in previous post was comparative and I said that even Abdullah could be more of a Pashtun than Zalmay Rasoul who cannot even speak the language.

On one occasion I heard Abdullah x 2 saying that Afghanistan is a country of minorities, so refusing to recognize that Pashtuns are majority what is an ethno-centric narrative from his constituents does reveal something about his political attitude.

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

Khurasani,

Hold on. He is almost certainly more closer to West than Iran.

Please read this blog and reconsider your views regarding him and Iran: http://afghanfactsheet.blogspot.nl/

Jamiat and Ahmad Shah Masoud and his men has had testy relation with Iran.

It is a fact that U.S. supported him in previous elections.

He and his likes all have free will. Everyone seeks support from Iran, America, Pakistan etc out of free will. If any of these countries see any merit in endorsing you, they will offer you their support.

The problem of Abdullah and his likes is that they are less loyal to America than Karzai. Therefore, it is much more difficult for the Americans to trust him or invest any money in him.

Fact is that Northern Alliance commanders in the army sifted money and weapons to their secret depots. Americans paid for all those guns and ammo. They were cheated by them. So I doubt that America will trust them this time around.

Can you explain which other political factions will sabotage?

Dostum will definately sabotage. He is a madman. Communists, the Khalqis and Parchamis in the military and police force will definately sabotage.

Hizbe Islami loyalists, Hukumatyars agents within the government and parliament will definately sabotage.

Why? Because they know damn well that if Jamiatis achieve their ultimate goal which is presidency, they will do what Mursi tried to do in Egypt. A gradual and systematic expulsion of political rivals from power.

The NA is the most powerful group with a lot of power within the government and across all institutions. Their most powerful ex foe, of course Taliban more powerful, have joined them.

Taliban joined them? When?

What other factions could check them and by what mean if you may answer?

A combination of various factors will undermine them. Taliban will fight them, other factions will fight them who are within the government as I mentioned above.

I am still not getting it. So is elections haram or halal and you must be for it since you wish for other to take part in it? So does practical reality allow you to eschew what Islam commands you then?

Please read study the thread I posted about democracy and elections.

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

His ties to iran aren't any stronger than the karzai camps. his and other northern alliance leaders relationship with iran was more due to desperation for strong allies during the 90s rather than ideology. now that they have american money and weapons, they don't need to depend on iran as much any more.

the coalition will only hold as long as all parties get what they are promised or are not alienated enough to actively sabotage the process. it worked for karzai for most of his run.

http://afghanfactsheet.blogspot.nl/

[randolph85]

http://afghanfactsheet.blogspot.nl/

The article lost me when it described abdullah as anti american

he receives money from iran, same with karzai and his bags of cash that he has admitted to. like i said, both camps are close to iran and abdullahs relationship with iran in the past doesn't sound any different than the talibans relationship with pakistan.

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

please read the farsi articles. the english article is new. There are various other factors why he is closer iran than america

[ComradePashtun]

Khurasani,

I meant Hezbis have joined him, not Taliban. If they win the election, are you suggesting that others will go in to war against them or what? Dostum is isolated in the north and he can do what ever he wants to beyond bringing in the votes of Uzbeks only three provinces. That mean jack..!

Abdullah is is more loyal to the king (U.S.) than he is to himself. Mark that. While there might be a threshold for puppets like Karzai, to him there is not.

And on America not wasting its money on him, they would not need to as Atta is worth a billion dollar now. He gave Abdullah over USD 15 million in previous election, and he is willing to spend a lot more this time around as it might be they wish their lucky day still to come.

[randolph85]

the americans will never have a perfect candidate take up the presidency for them, even their karzai experiment borders on failure. americans aren't stupid enough to believe that ashraf ghani or someone else like that can actually become president. the americans would much rather support an abdullah than some wildcard like a sayaf. if anything, abdullah works for both the americans and iran. its not like there would be any major changes from the karzai era, it will be more of the same.

[randolph85]

The real implication of abdullah winning is that it will make integration of the taliban into the government difficult. the taliban were probably waiting until karzai left and was replaced by someone fresh to start negotiations and save face by maintaining that they would of never talked to the karzai gov't, but talking to abdullah would be just as bad and wouldn't make the talibs look any better.

[ډګروال]