Presidential Elections

[ComradePashtun]

Ladies and Gents,

Please discuss presidential elections 2014 in this thread and you may also post any related news items and analysis.

As it is we are two days into the candidate registration period which will last for another 18 days, until 06 October, till then candidates with their tickets - in other words their two vice presidents would have to formally register with the IEC and make announcement before the public. But as it is and typical of Afghan politics there seems to be still political horse-trading and alliance building going on till this very last minute and in this respect no candidate with strong ticket and bloc so far has emerged.

We do know of the potential candidates Abdullah Abdullah is definitely preening himself these days, we also hear of Zalmay Rasoul bespoken of as the Karzai team's candidate, and there are also other potential candidates such as Ashraf Ghani, and even Ahadi/Atmar/Gilani etc.

Share your thoughts on what might be going on and what do you expect to happen even in the next week or two to transpire.

[HalloIsBack]

http://www.fefa.org.af/

[Bost Bastan News]

Good question! I think the chances for our technocrates (Mr. Rasouli, Mr. Ghani Ahmadzai, Khalilzad, Mr. Faruq Wardak) look to be weak to win the election since they don´t have much base among Pashtuns. Unfortunately, Mr. Ghani Ahmadzai has started to late to promote himself and so he failed to build a base among the people. Even among majority of Kuchis he has not that much support. He also lost the confidence from Hazara people who many times reported they won´t vote for him. Mr. Faruq Wardak seems to be disliked by many people, particularely by the northern people. Khalilzad is a foreign stooge serving foreign interests. He is the most enemy of Pashtuns and all Afghans.

I hoped for Mr. Gailani but he stepped down when his alliance became broken due internal problems between some really stupid people. The Eastern Alliance seems to be credible, able to win many votes. EA would be a tough opposition to the newly formed alliances of Mr. Abdullah Abdullah, Mr. Saleh, Mr. Noor Mohammad Atta...

Our majesty and highly honoured Mr. Karzai and some of his candidates (except Mr. Rasouli) are still a powerful group with alot of influence among the people from all tribes. Currently we are busy to weaken the opposition by deviding them in our favour. The outcome will be good for us. Mr. Qayum Karzai, the real house-holder of Loy Kandahar is the most important factor in this election. We urged some tribal leaders to call a Jirga about the political and security situation and ask for pushing the election to 2018. If that works we will without joining the wasteless race and in 2018 we will be more powerful than now.

[Bost Bastan News]

http://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/on-your-marks-alliances-and-actors-before-the-2014-presidential-election

[ډګروال]

a couple of suggestions


Minister of Domestic Affairs Dr Daud Miraki


Minister of Finance Dr Ashraf Ghani


Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Ramazan Bashardost

[Badlun]

Please do not use the wording Your Majesty for His Excellency Mr Karzai . H e an elected president not a monarch or king.

I wish the policies of Karzai continue and a Pashtun candidate who has his blessing may win the elections.

The problem is that democracy is nascent in Afghanistan and political parties culture is not that much rooted into society.

[randolph85]

Pashtuns may be in for a rude awakening if the elections are fair this time around. the northern alliance have their established candidates who are well known names and will garner guaranteed votes. after karzai, there are no well known and high ranking pashtun people to gather the guaranteed votes that karzai got through money and connections. karzai had the privilege of being installed by the americans and being a household name long enough until he could be elected, his successor doesn't have that privilege. i am still thinking it will be sayyaf but we will see.

[Bost Bastan News]

Pashtuns may be in for a rude awakening if the elections are fair this time around. the northern alliance have their established candidates who are well known names and will garner guaranteed votes. after karzai, there are no well known and high ranking pashtun people to gather the guaranteed votes that karzai got through money and connections. karzai had the privilege of being installed by the americans and being a household name long enough until he could be elected, his successor doesn't have that privilege. i am still thinking it will be sayyaf but we will see.

To be honest and serious, it is not acceptable or even imagineable that Sayyaf could win. Our Excellency´s choice will be Mr. Rassouli but Mr. Rassouli lacks of support among the people but he is our only chance to win the race. There is a family feud between the Shamilzai tribe, particularely between our majesty Mr. Karzai and his honoured brothers and because of this, one brother don´t trust the other brother. Sayyaf has a bit support among some tribal elders of his tribe and among some commanders of the north but that´s all. 95% of all voters won´t back Sayyaf. Even our Excellency won´t back him. Calling him on the table was just a test to see how the opposition parties stands towards him. Mr. Sayyaf himself is highly regarded as ''bad-ass'' among our own Pashtun tribes, specially Kabouli Pashtuns. There is one guy who could win the entire race but he has not the backing of the rich people and politicians. Mr. Bashardost is a true Afghan also being an ethnic Hazara. He would be a good candidate but as president he would be weak and it would be possible to control him (in our interests). Unfortunately, Our Excellency hasn´t listen to me, yet. But don´t worry. The opposition haven´t yet any candidate. In the last election we had 90% of Hazara votes and nearly 100% vote of Uzbeks (around 20% of all votes). The best we can do is deviding those votes and weaken them because this time we won´t be able to collect all those votes again. But what worries me, because you wrote about Mr. Sayyaf, is, that it is also not possible to hand the power traditionally held by the Durranis and southern Pashtuns to eastern Pashtuns. Unfortunately, in the palace we aren´t ready for a pan-Pashtun feeling. Eastern Pashtuns get higher education and high positions but the power structure won´t change.

[Bost Bastan News]

Dear Mr. Badlun,

it is my business how I can Our Excellency Mr. Hamid Karzai, not yours. Please respect that, brother.

[Badlun]

Dear Mr. Badlun,

it is my business how I can Our Excellency Mr. Hamid Karzai, not yours. Please respect that, brother.

This is against the international protocol norms to call an elected president as Majesty. You are degrading him by calling him like a monarch.

Now you are using Excellency so that's great. And Karzai is also my leader so it is also my business to remind you how can you correctly address my leader. I have met him many times and am impressed by his knowledge and wisdom.

[ComradePashtun]

Bost,

That is a lot of baloney what you say if you ask me. Your so called candidate Zalmay Rasoul is the weakest link here and it is almost certain that he wont even garner the amount of votes Bashardost had in the last election. Abdullah is a well established candidate we lost to Karzai almost head to head. Where the hell do you think the 40+% of votes he got came from, if Karzai managed to garner all the votes of Uzbeks and Hazaras? Zalmay Rasoul also is not Karzai who garnered almost 90% of Pashtun votes. Beside, Pashtuns in general do not hold good feelings for Karzai and his cronies and on that basis will almost certainly turn toward an alternative. So Ashraf Ghani another potential candidate becomes an option. If I have access to ballots on election day my vote goes to him. He also has weak populous base, but his case is certainly not as dismal as that of Zalmay Rasoul a lame ass farsiwan Muhamadzai. Even Abdullah is more of a Pashtun than this lame guy Rasoul known for his incompetence to even run the foreign ministry. Karzai is a fool for backing him.

The only hope is Ashraf Ghani, while there are rumours that the likes of Ahadi, Atmar, Peer Gilani etc. will be backing him, the formers though have the tinniest support base among Pashtuns - the big unknown is whether if he will manage to have the indispensable backing of Hezb-i-Islami foremost, also others like Hazrat Sahib etc. and prominent non-Pashtun leaders particularly Uzbek and Hazar with vote banks. Tajiks are almost certainly going to vote Abdullah.

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

This thread is supposed to be about elections, yet nobody is posting anything about what these candidates are promising to do in return for votes.

[Bost Bastan News]

Bost,

That is a lot of baloney what you say if you ask me. Your so called candidate Zalmay Rasoul is the weakest link here and it is almost certain that he wont even garner the amount of votes Bashardost had in the last election. Abdullah is a well established candidate we lost to Karzai almost head to head. Where the hell do you think the 40+% of votes he got came from, if Karzai managed to garner all the votes of Uzbeks and Hazaras? Zalmay Rasoul also is not Karzai who garnered almost 90% of Pashtun votes. Beside, Pashtuns in general do not hold good feelings for Karzai and his cronies and on that basis will almost certainly turn toward an alternative. So Ashraf Ghani another potential candidate becomes an option. If I have access to ballots on election day my vote goes to him. He also has weak populous base, but his case is certainly not as dismal as that of Zalmay Rasoul a lame ass farsiwan Muhamadzai. Even Abdullah is more of a Pashtun than this lame guy Rasoul known for his incompetence to even run the foreign ministry. Karzai is a fool for backing him.

The only hope is Ashraf Ghani, while there are rumours that the likes of Ahadi, Atmar, Peer Gilani etc. will be backing him, the formers though have the tinniest support base among Pashtuns - the big unknown is whether if he will manage to have the indispensable backing of Hezb-i-Islami foremost, also others like Hazrat Sahib etc. and prominent non-Pashtun leaders particularly Uzbek and Hazar with vote banks. Tajiks are almost certainly going to vote Abdullah.

I haven´t denied that Mr. Rassouli is weak, so is Mr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. I can only assume why you think that Mr. Ahmadzai is stronger than Mr. Rassouli but it´s not that way. Rassouli will be able to get at least votes from south where majority of Pashtuns are pro-Karzai family, while Mr. Ahmadzai has not that deep root in south and east among the different tribes. Mr. Rassouli has also Mr. Shirzai as a backer. Mr. Rassouli could cooperate with Mr. Ahmadzai. Both are doctors and both can serve the nation. But in practice Mr. Rassouli hails from the traditional power-holders and Mr. Ahmadzai belongs to the Nomadic society. People in the south wouldn´t be happy for tht power-shift. Our Pashtuns will back any candidate like in 2009. Mr. Rassouli is a bonus for us. He is a relative of former royal family. He has a deep root among certain circles. You know, actually, after the last election our goal was to change the constitution for a pro-monarchy take-over but we failed. We are going to try it again when we take the race with us. Please brother, don´t call Mr. Rassoul a ''lame ass farsiwan Muhamadzai''. I have never seen any Muhamadzai or particularely Mr. Rassouli calling himself a Farsiwan. Mr. Rassouli serves the same interests like all Pashtuns. Serving their nation. He has no backing among other ethnics.

In the last election 90% of all votes Abdullah Abdullah could collect came from the Farsiwan population. The remaining were provided by Noor Mohammad Atta and Qanuni. Noor Mohammad Atta collected all votes from Logar from where he originally hails, Laghman, Takhar and Kunduz and Mr. Qanuni from the minorities of Nangarhar and Khost, plus tribes related to the tribe of his wife, who is the daughter of a famous tribal elder from Jalalabad district. Abdullah Abdullah is a hyena. What we know is that he is fooling the masses.

Hazaras and Uzbeks are fierce enemies of Mr. Ahmadzai. I don´t think they will join if they think they are already sitting on a winning boat, don´t you think?

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

The problem of Ashraf Ghani and Ahadi is that they dont have a support from the people. The Northern Alliance have their support because they hail from a political and ethnic tradition.

The only way a Pashtun candidate can win is via fraud like Karzai did. Because most Pashtuns dont vote. They dont believe in voting or they have no sccess to shirk-boxes.

[Bost Bastan News]

The problem of Ashraf Ghani and Ahadi is that they dont have a support from the people. The Northern Alliance have their support because they hail from a political and ethnic tradition.

The only way a Pashtun candidate can win is via fraud like Karzai did. Because most Pashtuns dont vote. They dont believe in voting or they have no sccess to shirk-boxes.

This is not true! Pashtuns have political leaders and a political tradition. Who ruled Afghanistan in the last 270 years? Americans, Great-Britains, Farsiwans, Russians, Pakistanis? Strange assumptation you have.

In the last election only 15% haven't voted in the Pashtun regions. This time maybe 10% won't be able to vote. What you call as shirk is a national decision. We even ask you fundamentalists to come up with your candidates or to join us. But I think majority of people won't vote for combatants so you call this shirk when it is not but killing innocent people, collecting their harps and money, running dtug-trades etc is really shirk. Someone should hold a mirror to you so you can meet the real and only shirk. Mr. Ahady lacks of support from non-Pashtuns due his ideology and Mr. Ahmadzai may share somehow the same ideology, but he is still a technocrat with Farsiwan-relatives. However, Mr. Sulaimsnkhil destroyed his image entirely.

This shirk is the only way to prevent a new civil war. If it comes out the election is full of frauds, the result would be the same. Play dirty as possible your role, but don't cheat. The election itself is a war.