IPS reports Massive Afghan Economic Constriction Post Withdrawal

[Admin Khan]

Admin -

My solution is the revitalization of families, villages, and qawms. Its the foundation for any strong society - anything else will simply be plaster of paris over massive cracks.

Luffy -

Yes. And its horribly ineffective.

Wowra, I've had the same conversation with BA as well, and I am still patiently waiting for his proposal, but I will throw you the offer as well, how do you expect to achieve that? Talk is easy. I want to see an efficient proposal, which perhaps I can then somehow forward to appropriate folks.

[Wowra]

Adminjan,

Its difficult because no valley is the same. What works in Tangi will not work in Panjwai.

But for areas afflicted in a particular kind of fissure, my solution was this:

During the 80s, the tribe gave way to parties - it was not uncommon for households to become divided upon party lines - say Harakat and Hesb-i Islami (Gulbuddin). While most Americans would say, "What's the big deal, Mom's a democrat and Dad's a republican," clearly we know better. These aren't "parties" but cults of personality fueled by violent power maneuvers. So it was under these pre-texts that many families, villages and qawms were ripped apart. As an experiment, take a violent area of contested authority. Overlay some transparent paper and outline the villages, sub-villages and areas that are the most violent. Then overlay a fresh transparency and high-light the locations of the different parties. You'll be surprised to find that the "Taliban" activity often occurs where two or more parties meet. In my experience its because some of these reasons:
1) Taliban moves more freely in these areas because "every man stands alone. No one will speak out because they know that no one will stand with them." That's a quote from a Taliban ground commander in one such area.
2) The violence is perpetrated by HiG, Harakat, Itihad or whoever, but often reported to Americans as Taliban so NATO forces will raid their enemies and essentially handle the "dirty work."

So, that being established, the only way to seal those wounds is from the ground up with the power of the hierarchy. While Haji Mussa and Engineer Abdullah can cross paths in a bazaar in Kabul or sit peacefully in a chai khana in each others space, najora Abdul Malek and Commandahn Rohullah cannot. There has been too much badal in the making for this to happen. So essentially, what needs to happen is Haji Musa, Engineer Abdullah and Rasul Sayyaf need to go to Abdul Malek and Rohullah's district, have a shura in the local mosque and blast over the mezzanine speakers and declare its over. From that moment forward there is no badal between brothers. That from that moment on all is forgiven in God's grace and from that moment forward they step forward as a family, a village and qawm. To defile this peace is to defile the people, and any man who does so will find himself under the paighur as will the sons of his sons. Once the parties are homogenized, then perhaps they will have the ability to invite young Talibs to sit at the table of local politics to learn the craft without a kalashnikov in their lap. When the ground floor of the Taliban realizes their words carry more weight in the local council, the Taliban will be forced to assimilate, essentially being brought into mainstream policy. For this to work, there could not be a single western, western influenced, or exiled finger print on it. After Abdul Malek and Rohullah's district the shura gains size and momentum. Say it starts in eastern logar, then down to Paktia or over to Wardak. It incorporates the local commanders whether they're now Talib or not.

It could work. The leaders are up for it - there's goodness in them, but its often silenced by pride. It would require a man who doesn't care about his own honor to broker between them. To be the woman walking to the other side clutching the proverbial Holy Koran. Until then - in some places it won't matter if a qawm is Kuchi, Safi, or Hotik - they'll recognize themselves as Harakat, Itihad or Hesb-i Islami - violence will persist between them and the insurgency among them.

So there it is. A way, not necessarily "The" way, to strengthen the tribe. Granted, that's the grass roots but like I said, the foundation must be fixed before you can build the grand society. After this, then the roads and karez and schools and hospitals. The west seems to think its best to separate, categorize, play one party or one tribe against another while building roads that explode and schools that burn so a decade later chaos is still as ever present as the day they wasted their first dollar and sold their first contract.

Other things must be done as well. Emphasizing local sports such as soccer and kickboxing. Get the elders at the games and matches. The children will unite first - but it always starts with the children. The Muslim Youth Organization was children. Change the culture of "cool." Right now jihad is cool. And we'll be no better at defeating that mindset than gangbangin in the US. We have to redefine cool - not defeat it. Sooner or later, these village matches go to province and national. Then its off to Iran and India so jihad becomes sport - its Sunni against Iranian Shia or Indian Hindu. Its no different than Green and Orange soccer teams in Ireland or when Serbs play Croatians. The sport becomes a non-lethal subtext for that jihad but at the end of the day, no one dies and the teams are stronger.

Build drug rehabs staffed with Talibs as counselors. Get dope-sick kids to the light of God - the Taliban could use an image overhaul. Start shelters for abused kids - the bachaloo and the opium bride and the ***** alike. Get them to the shelters where Mullah and psychologist alike can hopefully begin the long arduous trek to mending the wounded psyche.

Again, once the family, village, qawm is a community again, these community outreach programs will only galvanize those sentiments while cleaning their societies in non-violent ways. And not one of those ideas is remotely western other than its coming from a culturally diffused westerner who is too Afghan to ever be an American again, and too American to ever be an Afghan.

That's some of the methods I would like to see and its not all encompassing but its a start, and a ****in better one than ACE hardware or making Afghanistan a destitute *****.

[Wowra]

You can't say *****? I thought you can say it in rated G movies... okay, "prostitute." haha

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Wowra, I've had the same conversation with BA as well, and I am still patiently waiting for his proposal, but I will throw you the offer as well, how do you expect to achieve that? Talk is easy. I want to see an efficient proposal, which perhaps I can then somehow forward to appropriate folks.

I had put it up in one of the development threads, a pretty lengthy set of suggestions - also gave the link to Comrade in 1 response. I think the set parameters of the problem you propose appear to be:

1) Keep chugging along in the current paradigm wherein a few goodies like some mobile phone companies cropping up are worth the strategic balancing paradigm. A few Honda Dealers may pop up in Kandahar (often owned by technocrats and emigres though) and Aino Mena gets built.

2) Endorsing 1 means accepting an implanted government and compromising complete autonomy: e.g. Sargeant Bales committs a crime and Afghan authorities concede immunity. or e.g. 2 Afghan cultural norms decide that certain penal code measures are appropriate and then funding and occupying powers decide that they clash with Western ideals so they make a media ruckus and the Afghan president has to pretty much do as they say. Or e.g. 3: Ask Zak Kandahari and his cadre to leave Wardag and basically get told No (this actually happened) even though you are the President

And I think thats what these choices boil down to for Afghans, Admin:

Do you want a few shiny new buildings labeled "girls schools" and mobile phones as a kleptocracy is constructed vs Autonomy and the notion that great nations take time (perhaps hundreds of years as in the case of the US) to find their way and should be allowed to do so. So you wont have 30 mobile companies and some corrupt airlines. But at least you have autonomy and dignity that lay the foundation for not becoming a future Pakistan.

Then beyond that - there is the ludicrous notion that any of these imperial designed nations of the istan states can actually rise to become a dominant power. It was the same argument made by Uzbekistan's and Tajikistan's Russian friendly leadership. They were consumed by the same Red menace mentality that created Khalq and Parcham. We can all agree that these states are not leaders in any sense and that they have abuse authoritarian governments. And then there are the capitalist occupied regions that are in perpetual angst like South Korea etc. These nations also compromised a large amount of their autonomy and are constantly at the mercy of their supplier nations.

With that in mind, my other suggestion buried somewhere here was that these states recognize their joint autonomy and pooling of resources will make them a regional power player and potential superpower. Here is Brzezinski noting this potential of the region:

""The world's energy consumption is bound to vastly increase over the next two or three decades. Estimates by the U.S. Department of Energy anticipate that world demand will rise by more than 50 percent between 1993 and 2015, with the most significant increase in consumption occurring in the Far East. The momentum of Asia's economic development is already generating massive pressures for the exploration and exploitation of new sources of energy and the Central Asian region and the Caspian Sea basin are known to contain reserves of natural gas and oil that dwarf those of Kuwait, the Gulf of Mexico, or the North Sea."


These Karzai crowd people and Afghan technocrats are small minded and think themselves as some sort of founding fathers who will educate their little brown brothers. Little do they realize, Brzenziski Baba is secretly educating him:

"In brief, for the United States, Eurasian geostrategy involves the purposeful management of geostrategically dynamic states and the careful handling of geopolitically catalytic states, in keeping with the twin interests of America in the short-term: preservation of its unique global power and in the long-run transformation of it into increasingly institutionalized global cooperation. To put it in a terminology that hearkens back to the more brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together."


In this quote the various istan states are vassals, the tributaries are their leaders, and the barbarians are the masses of these states. Together, despite their differences - their joint efforts would work far better to preserve their resources, autonomy, and respective cultural heritages because of joint interests.

[khushal]

I wish the problem was that simple, but its not. Some do want stability - they want to stay in power - but they want stability. There's the aspect that in the west nepotism is frowned upon, but in Afghanistan lack of nepotism is unethical. And defrauding the government in any country isn't considered repulsive, but considered clever (if you get away with it). In the U.S. its creative tax returns and welfare dynasties - in Afghanistan its bogus contracts and ghost employees. In Afghanistan the human condition is more exposed in all its complexity in the absence of distracting garnish.

If they wanted stability, they would step down. George Washington could have declared himself King but he didnt because he truly wanted stability. He sacraficed his own interests for the interests of his people. Its not about people defrauding the governmnet, its more about the government allowing it to be defrauded. True, America has its corruption but its not to a point where it is creating instability and one cant compare america to afghansitan in this regard because america has unlimited amount of resources, you dont have a 1/3 of population malnurished. This is a country where the majority are overweight and there is a billion dollar industry trying to bring the weight of people down.