Future Afghan Scenario

[AfghanSoulja]

Quite sensible. BUT my question was if everyone every ABCD country is OUT.

Suppose its just Afghanistan and its all ethnic population who have to decide what should be political formation in the country then how do you see where Pashtuns and other ethnic groups of North and other parts will stand?

2. How do you see all the groups from all factions, how they will react to the political set up

like i said every political group in Afghanistan right now is existing because it is being supported by foreign elements.. In the case of an immediate withdrawal you would see political groups most likely collapsing or retreating to control their individual power base.

The scenario your talking about will help Afghanistan only if we have able leadership. The Jirga is unfit for the job, Karzai doesnt have support for the job, the taliban without Pakistan backing them does not have the kind of infrastructure to oppose the north alliances to gain power.

So this lollapalooza is most likely the outcome of such a scenario, where no one group can attain power and you will most likely see a country that has units which will be under control of different groups.

[Jana]

like i said every political group in Afghanistan right now is existing because it is being supported by foreign elements.. In the case of an immediate withdrawal you would see political groups most likely collapsing or retreating to control their individual power base.

The scenario your talking about will help Afghanistan only if we have able leadership. The Jirga is unfit for the job, Karzai doesnt have support for the job, the taliban without Pakistan backing them does not have the kind of infrastructure to oppose the north alliances to gain power.

So this lollapalooza is most likely the outcome of such a scenario, where no one group can attain power and you will most likely see a country that has units which will be under control of different groups.

And in such a case how do you see the vision of power for different groups in different parts of Afghanistan ?


What is your take on Northern Alliance ? Can they be powerful enough to take the lead or acceptable enough to be chosen by majority keeping in view the negative feelings for other groups?

[AfghanSoulja]

There is no group in Afghanistan that can be considered a majority, and therefore it would be impossible for them to take power..The differences are there and they can be resolved, but if you look at my previous post i said unless there is able leadership present when such a withdrawal occurs, there is no way for these groups to come together. Whichever group takes power will most likely snub the other, and that is evident in the failure of the Karzai government

[MazloomyarMaseed]

India and Afghanistan would both regret the day if they managed to remove Pakistan from the world map. They would both be fighting each other and claiming bits of each others territories.

I dont think anybody would regret, only people such as you, you will do anything not to loose the life you live thats been built on the blood of others.

India doesnt need to go to war, Once it becomes more wealthy and richer, you will see lines of Punjabis and Indian Mojjahirs going back to India just as they come to the UK.

Afghanistan doesnt need to fight anything, Pakistan will divide itself for them.

Kind Regards

[MazloomyarMaseed]

Dear Jana

You should know how strong northern alliance is, wasnt Ahmad Shah Masood a very good friend of Bhutto and the ISI?

[BLS_1919v2.0]

Unfortunately if the regional countries beside Afghanistan do not stop interfering there is a likelihood of a civil war. Ideally, Afghanistan should be allowed a period of reconciliation and rebuilding. Definitely, Pakistan and Iran in particular have to back off and stop interfering in the affairs of Afghanistan. This is the elephant in the room, and we have acknowledge it, these two countries negative role and so called strategic games will cost Pashtuns on both sides a lot of problems. Wait scratch that is already causing us huge problems.
In terms of governance, I think the people of Afghanistan should come together, reconcile and pick a form of government that is most suitable. Preferably some much needed power sharing would work.

Luffy India and Afghanistan have border issues with each other, why would they regret it? This is an emotional response. The only way they could regret it is if Pakistan has an option like Israel's Samson.

[Gaia]

Here hoping not to derail the debate or mess with Jana’s thread, there are some things I’d like to hear further comments, please

First, Luffy, your response was really interesting, for you added some elements that I’ve hardly seen in many of the discussions. I’m not sure I fully understood your line of thought though, so, please, accept my previous excuse before anything if I did misunderstand you. Is it that you think that, in a scenario that provides freedom of media, communication, and so on, the sharia will be the best way to guarantee the cohesion of Afghan society? What is the possibility for these elements to congregate? What kind of Sharia you see allowing these elements, since someone else already pointed, there are many ways to interpret and apply this system? Which characteristics would this Sharia you forsee apply so that this kind of freedom is guaranteed.? Plus, don’t you think the existence of free communication [medias] would be, in itself, already a mean to cohesion and, even, a mean to reinforce the legitimacy of the Sharia or any kind of law? And, is it your previous understanding that the Sharia might be the element almost – emphasis in the almost! – all of the tribes/citizens would take with not much resistence? Would like to hear from you on that.

Now, Jana, you say you don’t believe in “this system of Democracy imposed on us by the West and US” (believe me, US has pretty much imposed its values and beliefs in the West so, you might as well want to say just “imposed by the US” and save the typing. Anyway...), and goes further by saying “none of our countries has that kind of atmosphere”. My curiosity goes out for: what kind of atmosphere does your country have? Would you care to elaborate? And I loved the “neither this system is fair”, we’re so on the same page here. Now, I don’t really think I understand it when you go for the example. That’s what Democracy goes for, it can’t be the government of the whole (and my mind really fails to point me any system that would ever guarantee the satisfaction of 100% of the people. It’s my understanding that Democracy happens to be the best political system amongst the possible systems, feel free to disagree), since humans will always have different ways of thinking, wishes, beliefs, understandings; under a Democracy, though, the majority gets to point what path will be run for a determined period; if it doesn’t satisfy, there’s always a chance to change the pace in the next turn. The rights and needs of the minority won’t – or at least shouldn’t – be ignored, which can be attended by the strenght and action of the legitimate institutions comprehended in the system, there are always Chambers! What you described was pretty much what happens in any fair/clear/open ellection: If 51% choose one side, that side wins, and it’s up to the other 49% to adjust and allow governability, on the contrary, the system will never work, the State gets stuck. Call it the “dictatorship of the majority” if you will (and that’s what the institutions shall work in avoiding, all inside the system and in respect to the choice of the majority). It’s still better than the dictatorship of the minority. But that’s just my opinion. Still, if not Democracy, what do you suggest as a replacement? As for your last question, in which you point a small percentage of the population is registered (and I add, or even care) to vote, the answer is one only: if you want to decide who will run your country and define your policies, then, register to vote and vote. If one doesn’t do so, then, please, sit down and watch, but abstain from demands if you’ve abstained from taking such a decisive action (this, of course, considering all of the citizens are given the right to vote, which is, in its turn, a prerrogative for Democratic systems).

AfghanSoulja.... and this is really me trying to learn from you, since I quite liked your interferences in here.... there shall be an able leadership. More than agreed. My curiosity is, do you think it’d be a person, a group, an institution? I think it was you (and, please, forgive me if I’m wrong) who pointed in a previous post that the Jirgas are not able to represent the whole and guarantee governability or something in that sense. So, I think the group is out. In the case you consider this to be an individual, do you really consider one individual to be able to gather the desires of all the tribes? What kind of individual would it be? Which characteristics to you think are necessary? I’m yet to find any personality who gets anywhere close to the unanimity of the Afghans likings, please, let me know if I missed any. And do you see any solution to what you already predicts will be the snubness, hence resistence and obstacles imposed, of the other group once one reaches power?

Finally, BLS.... Don’t you consider these years after the withdrawal of Taleban to this day to be part of this “period of reconciliation and rebuilding”? (Yes, I am aware of the discourse and the propaganda, but that happens to be the excuse, and I really want to hear your thoughts on that). If you don’t consider this period as such, how do you think this period could happen, what kind of rulling would beduring this time, what kind of adjustments do you think are necessary to be done? Particularly, despite my antipathies for Western actions and interferences in Afghanistan’s politics, and not ignoring the thousands of less-than-altruistic interests involved in the process, the rebuilding of the country can hardly be done without foreign interference of any kind. Afghanistan is a hardly wounded country and it will have to rely on its partners/friends/allies (and hopefully there are many) to the reconstruction of the country and the rebuilding of its institutions.

[Michin Khel]

First, Luffy, your response was really interesting, for you added some elements that I’ve hardly seen in many of the discussions. I’m not sure I fully understood your line of thought though, so, please, accept my previous excuse before anything if I did misunderstand you. Is it that you think that, in a scenario that provides freedom of media, communication, and so on, the sharia will be the best way to guarantee the cohesion of Afghan society? What is the possibility for these elements to congregate? What kind of Sharia you see allowing these elements, since someone else already pointed, there are many ways to interpret and apply this system? Which characteristics would this Sharia you forsee apply so that this kind of freedom is guaranteed.? Plus, don’t you think the existence of free communication [medias] would be, in itself, already a mean to cohesion and, even, a mean to reinforce the legitimacy of the Sharia or any kind of law? And, is it your previous understanding that the Sharia might be the element almost – emphasis in the almost! – all of the tribes/citizens would take with not much resistence? Would like to hear from you on that.

The magor problems of Afghanistan which have kept it backward are ethnic clashes and warlords. Though talibans were not ideal in every case but we have observed that they were sucessful in eliminating these two factors and maintained peace. Talibans have to act strict as afghans by nature are rigid and stubborn people. Their main presentation was sharia and it worked wonderfully on already religous and conservative Afghans. But it was their stupidity to ban media and modern technological developments and cut itself from rest of world, which forced the educated people to leave the country and caused Brain drain. So islamism with no factors of extremism can make strong bonds between all ethnicities of Afghanistan. Afghans can take exemple of Pakistan, where completely different ethnicities are living in co-existence through bond of islam for 60 years. Ideology of pakistan is nothing but islamiyat. Afghans have to study Syed jamulludin Afghani and Allama Iqbal.

From Practical point of view this idea may not be feasible as our Pashtun mullahs are worst mullahs in the world, they cant allow TV at all, the jihaz ul khabees for them.

[Nadir Shah]

The magor problems of Afghanistan which have kept it backward are ethnic clashes and warlords. Though talibans were not ideal in every case but we have observed that they were sucessful in eliminating these two factors and maintained peace. Talibans have to act strict as afghans by nature are rigid and stubborn people. Their main presentation was sharia and it worked wonderfully on already religous and conservative Afghans. But it was their stupidity to ban media and modern technological developments and cut itself from rest of world, which forced the educated people to leave the country and caused Brain drain. So islamism with no factors of extremism can make strong bonds between all ethnicities of Afghanistan. Afghans can take exemple of Pakistan, where completely different ethnicities are living in co-existence through bond of islam for 60 years. Ideology of pakistan is nothing but islamiyat. Afghans have to study Syed jamulludin Afghani and Allama Iqbal.

From Practical point of view this idea may not be feasible as our Pashtun mullahs are worst mullahs in the world, they cant allow TV at all, the jihaz ul khabees for them.

Who created these ethnic rivalries and warlords? And what is the Taliban peace? It was submission, not peace.

[BLS_1919v2.0]

Gaii ideally I would have agreed with you. However, right after the breakdown of taliban, there was a lot of strategic manouver and miscalculations by NATO. The Bonn agreement didn't help either. I was in Peshawar when the initial invasion was happening and the aftermath of the new government. From the media in Pakistan, you could see there was a sense of confusion and shock as their once strategic allies were no longer there. You see Afghanistan has been systematically destroyed and even the basic tools to defend itself have been ruined. So Afghanistan is susceptible to proxy wars. Now the situation is different and the proxy war has fully extended into Pashtunkhwa.
In such a situation, we can't expect any real form of reconciliation, and that is what bothers me. I personally believe that the regional powers and NATO need to let the Afghans of lar au bar to decide. We (whether east of the durand or west of it) have the right to formulate our own governments and rebuild. Nobody likes a war in their home, but the way things are going I doubt anyone will let us.

@Afridi, peera there is some precedent of ethnic issues in Afghanistan, but it was fairly stable in those terms. Afghanistan did not have deep rooted ethnic issues like other countries. The soviet war however brought about a lot of negative things in the country and ethnicity was a common tool that further fueled the civil war.