after 2014?

[faye]

lol. because people come to different conclusions to you about troop withdrawal 'karpo', you come to the illogical conclusion that they are disappointed that the us are leaving?
good one cyril!!!
now, cut the crap

[Karpo]

i despise american imperialistic actions in afghanistan as much as the next sane afghan but making up facts to make yourself feel good or delude yourself serves no purpose.

Sun Tzu -

"So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself, but not your enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself."

It does not look like that, but I will tell you I am not making up facts.

There are on and off again talks in Qatar. This is a fact. The Taliban were supposed to be eliminated. That did not happen. Using logic and reason, there is only one reason the Taliban would talk with the US, and thats not for some meager prisoner exchange, but for the withdrawal of US-led coalition from Afghanistan - the single issue at hand (there is no other issue as karzai is a non-factor in all regards) If you ascribe anything else to these talks, then that is foolish and naiive. Talks would not even happen if there is no withdrawal that concludes it. I think the Taliban took an interest in talks because they realized they could accomplish their goals that way, they also probably did it to get public recognition. Diplomatic recognition by Qatar is a fact now. That is why karzai is mad

After the Taliban have stopped talks (they have still not reopened talks), the US has again changed conditions, and it appears agreed to release the 5 Taliban prisoners from Gitmo to Qatar. The Taliban were supposed to be eliminated 10 years ago.

I have no preference for whatever government forms in Afghanistan, but yes, I am happy that the US is leaving Afghanistan, and i can tell you I am sure of it.

The regional calculation is in favor of the end, not of its continuation

[randolph85]

Billions of money that they didnt have, and yes that went to waste, and also that they are not ready to keep on pouring into a failed and unacceptable government of karzai.


If the hot mic issue Obama had with Medvedev is of any indication of his "flexibility" I am certainly sure Afghanistan is no longer a foreign policy interest of his, and he just wants to win his election and forget about it. the 2012 election is key, and if the recent events are of any indication, the withdrawal from Afghanistan is real and final.


As is apparent what the US says and does are two different things.

Already, Panetta has moved up the end of combat operation by a year from 2014 to 2013. It was supposed to be 2014. France has said they will be fully withdrawing by 2013. All this matters, and all this adds to the reasons the US wants to reopen talks with the Taliban, this despite the fact the Taliban have ended talks for now until the US clarifies matters. No one is asking for talks with karzai or the northern alliance as they are non-factors in this, insignificant.


Qatar does matter a lot in the endgame scenario as it is the venue where the eventual and final talks will conclude. Make no mistake about it. Nothing else but a ceasefire and a subsequent withdrawal from Afghanistan will be discussed.


There is no money at all in the coffers to continue this Western experiment in Afghanistan, and to think that the US will continue to increase its debt for 1) interests that are not being met, and 2) for a puppet regime of karzai is impractical.

Obama is doing what he knows best.

i don't think you understand how money works here. if and when america faces collapse in 60-70-80 yrs or whenever because of its spending doesn't matter in the here and now.

you say america doesn't have the money, but they DO have the money because they can pay salaries, they can pay for their weapons, and development of new weapons. the soviets financed their war machine when its people were doing 10 times worse than americans are in the worst of times here. the blow back america faces from its spending compared to its debt will not even matter for decades and probably after we are both dead.

so in real life where it matters, saying america can't afford its 5th generation jet fighters or modern bombers doesn't take away from the fact that these things exist and are able to bomb people to sh*t today and for the foreseeable future.


do you realize that the 2014 date has been on the table for years now? they didn't just come up with the date. Panetta has been a hawk in the administration that wants to up the ante in afghanistan. this is the guy still lobbying for night raids and holding detention centers under american control after 2014. transfering security to afghan troops just means more afghan troops die instead of americans.

dude, america could increase taxes by like a few cents to its own people to cover the entire afghan governments budget if they wanted to. a few billion is NOTHING to america.


remember back when you were claiming that the taliban would never talk to america as long as they occupied afghanistan? don't act like you know it all, bachem.

[Karpo]

i don't think you understand how money works here. if and when america faces collapse in 60-70-80 yrs or whenever because of its spending doesn't matter in the here and now.

you say america doesn't have the money, but they DO have the money because they can pay salaries, they can pay for their weapons, and development of new weapons. the soviets financed their war machine when its people were doing 10 times worse than americans are in the worst of times here. the blow back america faces from its spending compared to its debt will not even matter for decades and probably after we are both dead.

so in real life where it matters, saying america can't afford its 5th generation jet fighters or modern bombers doesn't take away from the fact that these things exist and are able to bomb people to sh*t today and for the foreseeable future.


do you realize that the 2014 date has been on the table for years now? they didn't just come up with the date. Panetta has been a hawk in the administration that wants to up the ante in afghanistan. this is the guy still lobbying for night raids and holding detention centers under american control after 2014. transfering security to afghan troops just means more afghan troops die instead of americans.

dude, america could increase taxes by like a few cents to its own people to cover the entire afghan governments budget if they wanted to. a few billion is NOTHING to america.


remember back when you were claiming that the taliban would never talk to america as long as they occupied afghanistan? don't act like you know it all, bachem.

First of all, I do not know who you think I am because I am not that person. I have only been here for a few weeks for that matter. Please cease accusations of who you think I am.


Secondly, your narrative gives some type of illusion that the US says and does everything they say they do. This is the same US that tried to win in Vietnam, but failed to do so. This is the same US that said warned Pakistan of consequences for alleged support for the Haqqani network, but only resorted to a attack on the Salala checkpost which actually put the war effort on a thread, and probably was one of the reasons there was an acceleration in diplomatic efforts to find an end to the war.

You are also completely uninformed whether willfully or not about American capacity to pay salaries. This capacity results in inflation as printing money that does not exist always does.

Banks are continuously failing. People are unemployed. Loans are defaulting. There is a huge housing crises, and the debt is in the trillions, not trillion. the Auto industry is finished. Iran is by choice and by force selling their oil in other currencies and even in gold in some cases. China is having multiple currency swaps with many Gulf countries.


The effects are already here. You act as if America has a power house economy when its economy draining away as we speak

It looks as if you may not want to face the reality at all


The parallels between the Soviet war and the US war are striking, and not to be brushed aside. The Soviets also pledged to be committed to teh Najib government, but that amounted to nothing. The same is happening to karzai whether one likes that or not


The US-led war in Afghanistan is coming to an end


talks to not promote the continuation of the status quo.

never in history

[khushal]

2014 will end the role of combat troops. special operation troops will still be present not to mention air power to support afghan troops.
The taliban know they cant get to the cities no matter what, and the americans know they cant get the country side, it is a stalemate. this is what the negotaiations will be about.
Americas goal is to prevent the country side from being used by groups such as AQ against Americas interest. The Talibans goal is to enter the political process and make changes to the present constitution.

2014 wont change much too. The Afghan government will not fall, it might actually get stronger since the insurgency will actually weaken. Most fighters will lay down their arms and return to village life since the Americans are not present.

The Afghan government will only fall if foreign aid stops coming in just like it did in the past. Who ever controls Kabul will depend on foreign aid wheather its the taliban or who ever. Afghanistan will not be independent as long as its economy is held hostage.

[randolph85]

First of all, I do not know who you think I am because I am not that person. I have only been here for a few weeks for that matter. Please cease accusations of who you think I am.


Secondly, your narrative gives some type of illusion that the US says and does everything they say they do. This is the same US that tried to win in Vietnam, but failed to do so. This is the same US that said warned Pakistan of consequences for alleged support for the Haqqani network, but only resorted to a attack on the Salala checkpost which actually put the war effort on a thread, and probably was one of the reasons there was an acceleration in diplomatic efforts to find an end to the war.

You are also completely uninformed whether willfully or not about American capacity to pay salaries. This capacity results in inflation as printing money that does not exist always does.

Banks are continuously failing. People are unemployed. Loans are defaulting. There is a huge housing crises, and the debt is in the trillions, not trillion. the Auto industry is finished. Iran is by choice and by force selling their oil in other currencies and even in gold in some cases. China is having multiple currency swaps with many Gulf countries.


The effects are already here. You act as if America has a power house economy when its economy draining away as we speak

It looks as if you may not want to face the reality at all


The parallels between the Soviet war and the US war are striking, and not to be brushed aside. The Soviets also pledged to be committed to teh Najib government, but that amounted to nothing. The same is happening to karzai whether one likes that or not


The US-led war in Afghanistan is coming to an end


talks to not promote the continuation of the status quo.

never in history

except the fact that the worlds governments and institutions were against the soviets in afghanistan and the najib government. if you are trying to compare that to todays situation, then that is simply false.

the fact that you bring up iran as if its actually doing well after these sanctions shows how little you know about the current situation of the world. even turkey, one of irans only real economic allies have agreed to cut down oil imports from them, not to mention china.

america is powerful, it is a superpower. a small nothing country like afghanistan in the grand scheme of things has no effect on the american empire that has been on march since the beginning of the 19th century, if not before that.

know thy enemy.

[Karpo]

2014 will end the role of combat troops. special operation troops will still be present not to mention air power to support afghan troops.
The taliban know they cant get to the cities no matter what, and the americans know they cant get the country side, it is a stalemate. this is what the negotaiations will be about.
Americas goal is to prevent the country side from being used by groups such as AQ against Americas interest. The Talibans goal is to enter the political process and make changes to the present constitution.

2014 wont change much too. The Afghan government will not fall, it might actually get stronger since the insurgency will actually weaken. Most fighters will lay down their arms and return to village life since the Americans are not present.

The Afghan government will only fall if foreign aid stops coming in just like it did in the past. Who ever controls Kabul will depend on foreign aid wheather its the taliban or who ever. Afghanistan will not be independent as long as its economy is held hostage.

This is very doubtful.

The US does not have the financial capacity to fight this war, and as a democracy nor does it have the public support to do so.


These are red facts. The closure of the Pakistan supply routes (the land) ones have made its impact as now even after a high level US delegation, another one is on their war this week to request opening of the supply routes.


Frankly, the regional calculation does not allow for the US war to continue, and this is also the reason there was talks in the first place.

The Karzai government will collapse in 2014 with no US forces to defend it. Afghan National Army is not a proper army. This is the reason why I am confident the US is leaving,and that all Obama is doing is going through the motions for his election when he talks about committment.


As it appears now, there will be no reopening of supply routes from Pakistan to Afghanistan. If the supply routes are reopened then it will be for withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I am quite confident about this, and not deluding myself with wishful thinking if that is what you think

The karzai government can sign whatever pact he wants, but it does not matter

2014 is the end

[Karpo]

except the fact that the worlds governments and institutions were against the soviets in afghanistan and the najib government. if you are trying to compare that to todays situation, then that is simply false.

the fact that you bring up iran as if its actually doing well after these sanctions shows how little you know about the current situation of the world. even turkey, one of irans only real economic allies have agreed to cut down oil imports from them, not to mention china.

america is powerful, it is a superpower. a small nothing country like afghanistan in the grand scheme of things has no effect on the american empire that has been on march since the beginning of the 19th century, if not before that.

know thy enemy.

The US war has failed in Afghanistan as a result of talks with the Taliban in Qatar. The Taliban were supposed to be defeated, and a narrative was put forth that they were foreign proxies of Pakistan, something that still is falsely put forth

this did not happen. Talking with the Taliban was actually a huge strategic miscalculation on the part of US officials who wanted to continue this war (Petraues and others). This is the reason they have been opposed to talks because it effectively gives a public and diplomatic venue for the Taliban to get the US out of Afghanistan via talks.


As it stands, it looks as if 5 Taliban prisoners from Gitmo are being released to Qatar in exchange for 2 NATO prisoners.


Remember the Taliban were supposed to be defeated.

I am giving you what I think is going to happen, not based on my wishful thinking, but from my objective assessment as hard as it is being objective since I certainly do want the end of this war.


Kissinger probably knows more than us when he stated that this certainly is the end game, and there will be no reintervention. I happen to agree with most of what he states as he is pretty well connected with the diplomatic community.

I will give more credence to what a seasoned diplomat says than anything else.


I would also say, that there is a continuous perhaps underestimation of the Afghan insurgency. They were supposed to be crushed, not the majority of the country.

Talks for them serve them in two ways, it gives them diplomatic recognition as well as venue where they can push their objectives through.


Nothing else is being discussed in these talks aside from the pending US withdrawal. That is certain, and only a naiive person would believe otherwise

[khushal]

This is very doubtful.

The US does not have the financial capacity to fight this war, and as a democracy nor does it have the public support to do so.


These are red facts. The closure of the Pakistan supply routes (the land) ones have made its impact as now even after a high level US delegation, another one is on their war this week to request opening of the supply routes.


Frankly, the regional calculation does not allow for the US war to continue, and this is also the reason there was talks in the first place.

The Karzai government will collapse in 2014 with no US forces to defend it. Afghan National Army is not a proper army. This is the reason why I am confident the US is leaving,and that all Obama is doing is going through the motions for his election when he talks about committment.


As it appears now, there will be no reopening of supply routes from Pakistan to Afghanistan. If the supply routes are reopened then it will be for withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I am quite confident about this, and not deluding myself with wishful thinking if that is what you think

The karzai government can sign whatever pact he wants, but it does not matter

2014 is the end

Thats what they were saying when the soviets left. the najib government actually made more progress alone in 2 years than the soviets did in the previous 9 years.
the main reason people fight is because of foreign troops on their soil, once they stop seeing these foreigners, they basically return to normal life like they did when the soviets left.
the biggest aid that taliban recruiters have is the foreign troop presence. the recruiters dont convince people to join in on the fight, the people form groups and do it themselves. They are not doing it for mullah omar even though they fly under their flag. most of those people just want to be left alone.

[Karpo]

Randolph,

In previous posts, it looks as if you state that the Taliban/insurgency are manipulated by Pakistan, in past and present.

With that in mind, when one then considers your thoughts that the US will not leave and will 'defend' the karzai government, it certainly does not appear to be very objective thought at all.

As much as I may try to be objective in assessing the situation in Afghanistan, I do admit that it is difficult to do since I myself look forward to the end of the war and the US occupation.

However, at the same time, there are enough facts that are there to see where this is heading.

The US talks with the Taliban will not end with a sustained or accepted US presence in the form of bases. Its just not going to lead to a general peace which is what the region, and even countries like Pakistan (who have been supporting the US-led war, a support that if did not exist, the US war becomes unsustainable) want. With the US-led war failure in Afghanistan to 'crush' the Afghan insurgents/Taliban, the regional opposition to the US-led war and continued presence, the lack of credibility and support for karzai gang, the US, NATO, and Pakistan public opposition to the war (polls), and most importantly, the derailed US and EU economy, one can reasonable conclude that this war is at its end. There is no money to continuously support it.


Obama is a politician. His democrat party will want to win the 2016 election as well as the 2012 election. Afghanistan can not be an issue for the 2016 election. Not at all.


The only Afghanistan can not be an issue is with the complete US withdrawal and accompanying negotiations for a smooth transition away from the disreputable and lackey karzai regime to a national one


There will be no US bases in Afghanistan

[Karpo]

Thats what they were saying when the soviets left. the najib government actually made more progress alone in 2 years than the soviets did in the previous 9 years.
the main reason people fight is because of foreign troops on their soil, once they stop seeing these foreigners, they basically return to normal life like they did when the soviets left.
the biggest aid that taliban recruiters have is the foreign troop presence. the recruiters dont convince people to join in on the fight, the people form groups and do it themselves. They are not doing it for mullah omar even though they fly under their flag. most of those people just want to be left alone.

As long as there is a US presence in Afghanistan, in whatever capacity, it is improbable to expect peace.Ahmad Rashid (who by the way I detest for his war profiteering from his books) put it best when he said karzai (and the US) can not expect peace with the Taliban and dually promote an occupation in the form of US bases. Its either one or the other, and a stalemate is not a US-led coalition victory, but a failure, and a loss. The Taliban were supposed to be crushed, not be one party to a stalemate.

With this in mind, I hardly think that the US-led war effort can be restricted to sitting in heavily guarded bases adinfinitum, and such a situation will still be the source of instability.

I think this was partly the reason the Taliban strategically decided to accept the US offer to start talks. Through talks, and a diplomatic office in Qatar, they are able to to push forward their issues. Their central issue is the pending US-withdrawal from Afghanistan, not the karzai constitution which they dont accept anyways, and not any talks with the karzai government which they probably never have to talk to anyways.


I dont think there will be a civil war as the Northern Alliance leaders have pretty much got fat on aid money the last decade, and I dont even know if their militia is still operable.


So 2014 in my assessment is it. Obama is more concerned at this stage with the perception, and with preventing a republican candidate from going after him in regards to Afghanistan as the republican candidates still have not clearly voiced their opposition to the war. Obama is playing the fiddle. It looks as if he will win the next election, and Afghanistan can not be an issue in 2016 election which the Democratic party will want to win again. If the situation in Afghanistan continues as is, the withdrawal will probably accelerate in a form of transition. For Obama he is thinking November 2012, he will stick with his 2014 timeline, but the actual reality on the ground will probabaly. Dont be suprised if there is a ceasefire in some areas by the middle of summer. He does not want unrest in Afghanistan before his 2012 elections. According to one analysis which states the Taliban are also aware of the 2012 elections. These talks are probably not just about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan either. Again, the Obama "hot mic" issue with Medvedev explains Obamas approach to a variety of hot issues he faces for this election


Taking that into consideration, the 70% of the American public (polls) which wants a faster withdrawal of US from Afghanistan, the regional opposition to the continuation of the war, and the failure that is the US-war effort in Afghanistan, it looks to be the end.


70% is a very large number, and it will only increase.

[RevolutionThroughReason]

Is Karpo , Unknownprince reincarnated?

[Karpo]

Is Karpo , Unknownprince reincarnated?

I do not know what your talking about

[faye]

might be ghundal no 2.

[Karpo]

might be ghundal no 2.

I have only been on this forum for a few weeks. You must have some issues of obsession with certain characters whoever this ghundal was.

Maybe you must have been harrassing this person, accussing them of being Taliban.

you sure do make the atmosphere in this forum unwelcome. This revolutionthroughreason and soldat want to report people to counterterrorism and such, trying to suppress speech.

I suggest you immediately stop accusing others of being other people