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what will happen in afghanistan after 2014 do you think? be realistic
civil war? taliban back or something else?
civil war? taliban back or something else?
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In my opinion, civil war is inevitable. I coincidentally read the following comment in the article below. And this is what I agree with.
"US withdrawal would not lead to peace in Afg but another civil war in Afghanistan with a final division of Afghanistan in a Pashtun and non-Pashtun state with Russia, Iran, India, Central Asian Republics supporting the north and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia supporting Pashtuns".
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It is no secret that Pakistani establishment regards the Afghan Taliban who constitute 90 % of Taliban as good Taliban . It is again no secret that some 1500 of Afghanistans 2400 km border with Pakistan has no regular Pakistani forces and Taliban freely move to and fro across this border .
It is no secret that a segment in US establishment regard Taliban as a good future proxy against Iran ,Russia and China and it is no secret that the US forces have not made any strategic effort to eradicate drug trade , the main source of Taliban military economy and have carried out no major military offensive against Taliban.
It appears that the Pakistani establishment has convinced the US that Pakistan can broker a peace in Afghanistan and cover US withdrawal.
THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN
AGHA.H.AMIN
The dynamics of history are variable and cannot be quantified or reduced or subjected to absolute judgements ! States are created to ensure basic political as well as human needs of the populace ! Thus the welfare and security of the populace is the first and most solid basis of a state !
Seen in this light while human needs are constant , borders can be changed , re-drawn and modified !
In our Indo Pak Afghan context states were created , destroyed and re created and modified when the forces of history made this transformation necessary .
Thus the Mughal Empire began to lose its political legitimacy from 1650s , was challenged by Hindu Marathas and Sikhs and attacked externally by Persia and Afghans.The Mughal state was replaced by successor short term intermediary states like the Maratha confederacy ,Sikh state , Nizam Hyderabad ,Oudh ,Rajput states and finally after 1849 by British India !
British India in turn was transformed into India and Pakistan in 1947 while Pakistan was subdivided into Pakistan and Bangladesh in 1971 .
Afghanistan in its present form was created only after 1747 after undergoing a state of instability from 1719 to 1747 ! Before 1719 Afghanistan was partly a province of Saffavid Persia,Mughal India and Central Asian Uzbek state of Khiva and Bukhara .
Afghanistan preserved its neutrality from 1919 to 1978 but became a frontline state for proxy wars from 1978 till to date.
From 1978 till to date thanks to its neighbouring states Afghanistan has not known a day of total peace.
It suits Pakistan ,Iran and the Central Asian Republics that Afghanistan remains united in its present form ! This is so because this is how Afghanistans neigbour states can manipulate Afghan politics from the outside !
Afghanistan is a unique state ethnically in the sense that its neighbours have more Pashtuns than Afghanistan (Pakistan ) , more Uzbeks than Afghanistan (Uzbekistan) , more Tajiks than Afghanistan (Tajikistan) ,more Persian speaking than Afghanistan (Iran).
With such a unique ethnic equation all of Afghyanistans neighbours can seriously manipulate Afghanistans internal politics while ensuring that Afghanistan remains unstable !
Ironically the Pakistani state has gained maximum from an unstable Afghanistan ! This indeed has been the cornerstone of Pakistani strategy of getting aid from USA,Saudi Arabia etc first as a frontline state against USSR (1978 to 1989) and the second time against Al Qaeda/Islamists from 2001 till 2011.
Iran sees Afghanistans Pashtuns as an existential threat and has a deep interest in supporting Afghanistans non Pashtuns who are under threat of political extinction in case a Taliban government returns to Afghanistan.
Russia ,Central Asian States and India also see the Taliban as a political threat .
The US and NATO have been unable to prevail militarily and are clueless about Afghanistans political future.
The idea of partitioning Afghanistan has political merit and should not be dismissed as an imperialist tool to divide and rule.
There is no denying of the fact that the Taliban regard Afghanistan as an Islamic Emirate where they will enforce their particular brand of Sunni Deobandi law .They did it in 1994-2001 and will do it again !
This particular brand of Islam has no room for moderatae Pashtuns , Uzbeks,Tajiks ,Hazaras,Turkmens,Aimaqs ,Baloch,Nuristanis and Pashais.
This in essence sums up the rationale for division of Afghanistan.
While we have made the rationale clear ,the second and more important question is ; " What will happen if Afghanistan is not partitioned" ?
The answer to this question again proves the utmost necessity of partitioning Afghanistan !
The following would happen if Afghanistan is not partitioned :--
1-Civil war and unrest will continue and Afghanistans neighbours will aid their proxies which may be rougly divided into Pakistani favourites ,Iranian favourites ,Russian/Central Asian favourites and Indian favourites !
2-As long as US/NATO stays this civil war will remain low intensity and when the NATO/US withdraws this civil war will assume a high intensity.No clear victor will emerge and Afghanistan will remain unofficially partitioned and fragmented and unstable.
3-Afghanistan will retain its position as citadel of all types of extremists and drug mafia.
It is no secret that Pakistani establishment regards the Afghan Taliban who constitute 90 % of Taliban as good Taliban . It is again no secret that some 1500 of Afghanistans 2400 km border with Pakistan has no regular Pakistani forces and Taliban freely move to and fro across this border .
It is no secret that a segment in US establishment regard Taliban as a good future proxy against Iran ,Russia and China and it is no secret that the US forces have not made any strategic effort to eradicate drug trade , the main source of Taliban military economy and have carried out no major military offensive against Taliban.
It appears that the Pakistani establishment has convinced the US that Pakistan can broker a peace in Afghanistan and cover US withdrawal.
The major hurdle in this scheme of things is that this unilateral solution will not be acceptable to Iran ,Russia,Central Asian Republics and India.
Boundaries cannot be re-drawn without a major effort on part of a state actor ! Bangladesh in 1971 could not have been created without Indian military support ! South Sudan was created with international effort . Kosovo was created with international state actors in the lead .
In case of Afghanistan a major state actor , or rather all major state actors must decide and go on with a new political arrangement thus creating a predominantly Pashtun state in the south and a non Pashtun confederal state in the north. A US NATO peace keeping force with a strategic damper at Kabul-Bagram and another at Shindand can econonomicall deter any adventurist Taliban move north of Hindu Kush .
Afghanistans Pashtuns and non Pashtuns both need peace and the international community should understand that Afghanistans neighbours view Afghanistan as a simulation practice live firing range where they can play their power games with live bullets !
The NATO needs to create a 100 percent ethnic Pashtun state in Afghanistan , a 100 percent Baloch state in Afghanistan and a 60 % Tajik Uzbek state in Afghanistan !
If not then third rate pakistani analysts would acclaim after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan .....Oh Islam has won .......which actually is pure and unadulterated BULL **** ! Which Islam ........an opportunist Pakistani brand of Islam !!!!!!
This is how the NATO can encounter the Pakistani and Iranian game !
If not the scene is set for diasaster for NATO and US in Afghanistan !
Posterity will not forgive NATO and the US for failing in Afghanistan !
Afghanistan in its present unstable state remains a threat to world peace !
It is in interest of the region that Afghanistan is partitioned !
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I see a short civil war where Talibs will try to regain their former strongholds where they will succeed but they will fail to go beyond Loya paktia (wardak, logar, paktya, paktika, khost) and Loy kandahar (zabul, helmand, kandahar, uruzgan). After sometimes pashtuns will get tired of Talibans incompetence in running government their brand of Islam which is alien to the land of pashtuns. Then either Taliban will change their stance and compromize on certain issue or they will perish into history books.Originally posted by afgpower View Post
One thing is for sure The Northeners are heavily armed this times and will be backed by Russia, India, US and others who don't want to see Taliban influence in Former Soviet Union (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan etc).
As soon as the Taliban break the terms of their treaty which they are working on with Americans they will be blown up by Drones and American Air power. They days of public execution in Ghazi stadium are gone.Comment
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^LOL that's a nice dream.....Comment
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A new Afghan government will probably take over. Northern Alliance, or whatever remains of it will fall apart within a matter of months or weeks. The current puppet lackeys will make their way to Dubai or Paris weeks before this happens obviously.
At this stage it looks as if the negotiations were stalled as US officials may have been dragging their feet simply for Obama's reelection. Recent news reports show that the US may be about to release the 5 Taliban prisoners to Qatar very soon. http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-ne...-prisoner-swap
The negotiations have not translated into a ceasefire, yet, but a ceasefire will probably happen before the US withdrawal is complete.
The US will withdraw from Afghanistan through Pakistan to the Karachi port to then sail away. It is final and conclusive, and there will never be a reintervention. The drone war has nearly come to an end, and with the end of the US war/occupation in Afghanistan, it ends tooLast edited by Guest; 04-02-2012, 03:05 PM.Comment
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What will happen is 90 dogs fights ,some for Pakistan ,some for Iran ,others for well others.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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people act like americans are leaving, which they are not. bases will still be there with special forces as well as air power. they will continue to keep defending the government. also, the money will still be coming in in the billions to the government.
comparisons to the soviet withdrawal are unfounded, and in case you guys didn't notice, the last 30 plus years has been one big civil war.
neither the taliban or americans are stupid, that is why these negotiations are so delicate and took so long to actually materialize. the afghan government doesn't want to fall, and the taliban doesn't want to take power while being alienated by the rest of the world like in the past. what happens next is up in the air.There are people today who think that admitting God’s absolute greatness decreases the value and importance of humans in the creation, as if God and mankind are rivals competing in greatness and power. Meanwhile I feel that whenever our perception of God’s greatness increases, with it we become greater, because we are the creation of a great God.
Sayyid QutbComment
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These are facts here.
the on and off US Qatar talks with the Taliban will center around the US withdrawal, nothing else, otherwise there would be no talks to begin with in Qatar. Qatar is paving the ground for the end of the war, as well as the exit of US-forces from Afghanistan.
A stalemate is an admission of failure on the part of the US-led coalition, and with a economy with a growing deficit, the reason why it is coming to an end is because it is frankly no longer fiscally even possible to continue the status quo.Comment
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Originally posted by randolph85 View Post
You are wrong to think that the US intends to finance the karzai government for ad infinitum. There is no money to finance the US-economy, what ever makes you think karzai/northern alliance government is a priority to make sure Afghanistan does not fall into chaos (this is a false narrative by the way). If the US can at least smoothly withdraw after 2012 , thats all that is Obamas concern. This depends on withdrawing out via the Pakistani land routes to the Karachi port which in the last meetings in Pakistan, the US officials have said they would at least need the land routes to withdraw from Afghanistan out of Pakistan.
Recent polls now show that 70% of the US population wants a quicker US-withdrawal. Democracy while flawed usually flows with what the people want one way or another.
the stability of karzai's administration is not a concern for Obama past the 2012 election. I predict a faster withdrawal right after the 2012 elections, as it appears Obama is most likely going to win, and for the Democrats to win in 2016, this would have to be finalized. if the situation in Afghanistan is still the same, then withdrawal will be accelerated.
Lastly, according to the latest news, the US has finally determined that it will release 5 Taliban prisoners from Gitmo to Qatar, provided the Qatar government keep them in the loop about their living arrangements, etc. Sure Qatar will say yes, but what that yes means really means nothing
karzais anger with Qatar is well founded, and is indicative of a real endLast edited by Guest; 04-02-2012, 10:22 PM.Comment
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according to articles i have been reading, the facts are, the americans are still building up some of their bases.
the northern distribution network routes, being organised by the u.s. since 2006, comes to afghanistan via russia and the stans, in case pakistan continues closure of roads.
drones ceasing? we'll see.
they are using drones to attack muslims in the phillipines, these days.Comment
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Originally posted by Karpo View Post
do you really think that the investment in karzai will just vanish after 2014? 2014 is a date that is made for public consumption, all parties know that the US has no plans to leave after that date. like in iraq, you take "combat troops" and change their title to "support troops." the war in iraq is officially done with but there is still billions of dollars in aid being sent to that government.
a few billion dollars a year is peanuts compared to the US economy. this is the largest economy in the world, and even in 2050, it will be the second largest after china but with a far higher per capita income. today the US has an 800 billion dollar annual defense budget.
afghanistan is barely on the american public radar. you had millions marching against the war in iraq yet the war still happened, with no public consequences. there are no million man marches against the afghan war, so there will be even less of an effect on US foreign policy. don't forget that the americans still reelected bush after he started the iraq war.
why would there be a faster withdrawal? you act like afghanistan is some major pressing issue in the US, when it is an afterthought.
and what qatar says means everything, you act like qatar is some independent major country that can **** around the US. its entire national security depends on the US. so they are going to sacrifice a relationship with a superpower that they have had since the birth of their modern nation over 5 talibs? lolll the hell? there is a reason why these gulf countries don't have much in the way of militaries, its because their entire defense strategy is based on having US bases and protection.Last edited by randolph85; 04-02-2012, 10:47 PM.There are people today who think that admitting God’s absolute greatness decreases the value and importance of humans in the creation, as if God and mankind are rivals competing in greatness and power. Meanwhile I feel that whenever our perception of God’s greatness increases, with it we become greater, because we are the creation of a great God.
Sayyid QutbComment
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It looks as if some here are in fact disappointed with the fact the US-led war and occupation of Afghanistan is coming to an ultimate end, and seem to be ascribing other peculiarities to the endgame.
As it looks now, the Pakistani land supply routes are not going to reopen. The northern distribution network is too costly and it takes longer for the supplies to reach Afghanistan. Pointedly, US officials are paying yet another visit to Pakistan this week to ask again for the reopening of the supply routes, stating that in order to withdraw they need to do so via these routes.
The US economy is also in no shape to support a war that has not succeeded in any substantial manner, and nor is there money for the karzai regime to be propped up adinfinitum. The US population wants out. The US economony can not support a war that has not succeeded. Its over, face it and accept it. karzai is not a foreign policy interest for the US at this stage.
It may be disappointing to some, but as Kissinger has put it best, and other people who are both well connected, this is it, the end. There is no turning back, and there will be no reintervention.
The Soviets were defeated by a mostly Pashtuns, and they left.
The US is leaving, and it is for good
The US and Afghanistan (the emerging one and not karzai) will probably have diplomatic relationsLast edited by Guest; 04-02-2012, 10:53 PM.Comment
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americas imperialist bases and expansionism didn't stop during the great depression which was the lowest point that the american empire had faced, what makes you think it will stop now?
the british controlled india while its national debt was far higher than america's is today, and remained in control of india for far longer than american adventures in iraq and afghanistan.
i despise american imperialistic actions in afghanistan as much as the next sane afghan but making up facts to make yourself feel good or delude yourself serves no purpose.
Sun Tzu -
"So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself, but not your enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself."There are people today who think that admitting God’s absolute greatness decreases the value and importance of humans in the creation, as if God and mankind are rivals competing in greatness and power. Meanwhile I feel that whenever our perception of God’s greatness increases, with it we become greater, because we are the creation of a great God.
Sayyid QutbComment
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Billions of money that they didnt have, and yes that went to waste, and also that they are not ready to keep on pouring into a failed and unacceptable government of karzai.Originally posted by randolph85 View Post
If the hot mic issue Obama had with Medvedev is of any indication of his "flexibility" I am certainly sure Afghanistan is no longer a foreign policy interest of his, and he just wants to win his election and forget about it. the 2012 election is key, and if the recent events are of any indication, the withdrawal from Afghanistan is real and final.
As is apparent what the US says and does are two different things.
Already, Panetta has moved up the end of combat operation by a year from 2014 to 2013. It was supposed to be 2014. France has said they will be fully withdrawing by 2013. All this matters, and all this adds to the reasons the US wants to reopen talks with the Taliban, this despite the fact the Taliban have ended talks for now until the US clarifies matters. No one is asking for talks with karzai or the northern alliance as they are non-factors in this, insignificant.
Qatar does matter a lot in the endgame scenario as it is the venue where the eventual and final talks will conclude. Make no mistake about it. Nothing else but a ceasefire and a subsequent withdrawal from Afghanistan will be discussed.
There is no money at all in the coffers to continue this Western experiment in Afghanistan, and to think that the US will continue to increase its debt for 1) interests that are not being met, and 2) for a puppet regime of karzai is impractical.
Obama is doing what he knows best.Comment
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