A Roadmap for Pashtunistan

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Create more universities and the problem itself will disappear. In my opinion, education is the only way to improve our lives. Tribalism will forever haunt us if we only have Kandahar University serving as a functioning university in Southern Afghanistan!

Seriously Randolph, how pathetic is that? I believe one of our members is working on establishing a few universities in the south.

I do not think education alone is the answer. After all, Islamia University in Peshawar graduated Engineers that are serving in high rank positions throughout the world and Kabul University created minds like Baha Zarjon. Nonetheless, the dividing line took hold because the Persian backed regime of the Muhammadzai kingdom in Kabul successfully indoctrinated the Pashtuns on its side of the border and the successive regimes in Islamabad did much of the same... making urdu the lingua franca in the NWFP and writing Abdali, Khattak, and these heroes of old out of their texts.

Do you remember the line out of the Usual Suspects? The one about the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist? Well, the greatest trick the British ever pulled and that subsequent regimes reinforced was to convince folks across the middle east, persia, and central asia that various lines they drew were actually in force once they left.

[Michin Khel]

The major rate limiting step and crux of their failed planning lies in the future (and past) of what was formerly the NWFP and now Khybar Pashtunkhwa. If Pakistan breaks up, there is no guarantee at all, and no evidence to support the premise that our brethren across the Durand line would join either a greater Afghanistan or an independent Pashtunistan.

I am not sure about FATA but settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are very much integrated into Pakistan. Infusion of islam-centric Pakistani ideology into Pashtuns have make them Pakistani patriots. Due to this there is some identity crisis going on in KP's people if seen from afghanistan's prospective . Lar Pashtuns are full term Pashtuns in terms of customs, way of life and language but Ahamad shah abdali, kabul , kandahar, afghan etc are insignificant terms when compared with Jinnah, islamabad, lahore, karachi, pashtun etc.

I dont think that Pashtuns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are ready to join Afghanistan. A stable and prosperous Afghanistan may shift their thinkings towards afghanistan but at the moment lar Pashtuns are not stirred for secession from Pakistan. Any one is free to conduct survey in KP to challenge my point of view.

[کیش]

Their should have never been a Pakistan, those lands should have been returned when the British left. I don't care If it was called Afghanistan, Pashtunistan, Spayistan or whatever it while have been one nation/empire. But whomever wanted to be even more separate and create a totally new and unnecessary "Islamic" nation, was a jackass who separated Muslims even more. Which is more unislamic, then Islamic.

[Alchemist]

Although I don't really care for the secularists or what not...I don't understand two things you wrote. First of all, how is it that America will somehow leave and be pushed out but Pakistan is here to stay? Who do you think has been propping up Pakistan? Second of all, Pakthunkhwa was not meant to be a substate by itself....people who advocate independence aren't just concerned with Pashtunkhwa, but with Afghanistan as well.

Oh and Pashtunkhwa staying as is within the framework of Pakistan is essentially a continuation of previous colonial laws and the great game of the 1800s. It doesn't benefit the Pashtuns there.

Pashtuns comprimise 25% of Pakistan's population. The major pashtun political party is the Awami National party which in turn supports the PPP. Is this correct or not?
Now you have pashtuns, voting for this ANP...so clearly they want to be a part of Pakistan.You don't expect 28 million Pashtuns to take over the rest of Pakistan, the other 100+million, do you? Canada has a similar problem with Quebec wanting to separate itself from the Canadian Federation, do you suppose that this is a natural course of nationalism?

[BLS_1919v2.0]

Question 1: How is it that America will be pushed out but Pakistan is here to stay?

I tend to agree that its current actions are moving towards internal destabilization and disintegration. However Pakistan's survival and America's being kicked out can be mutually exclusive events. In fact, Pakistan's survival depends on it divesting itself from serving America's interests over its own instead of killing its own people and destabilizing itself. The fact that America props up the Pakistani economy is no gaurantee that America leaving will result in Pakistan dissolving. Very likely, the Pakistani Army will step in and take over since it appears to be the only functioning institution in Pakistan and eventually tell the US that it will not act against its own interests.

Statement 1: Pakhtunkhwa was not meant to be a substate by itself.

Once again, there is no proof for this statement. The history of the southern Afghan basin diverges at various points from that of the NWFP. The Safavid empire was very much involved in the southern Afghan basin and the mogul empire only briefly wrestled control of Kandahar from them... the NWFP, on the otherhand, to the consternation of Khushal Khan Khattak was in the hands of the moghuls for longer periods of time and was successfully held by Rao Singh for a brief period of time. As I noted, the tribes of the NWFP occupy their own territories and a breakdown of the tribal map shows that the current occupation of various tribal groups almost fits the durand line (except for various Wazirs and Mehsuds that still have lands in Birmal). The exception to this is the Abdali confederation that successfully overlaps borders near Quetta/Kandahar. The Mohmands of the FATA territory are primary khanate families that have lands within modern Pakistan and not within modern Afghanistan.

Therefore, it is a dangerous assumption, devoid of data/surveys that Khybar Pashtunkhwa will openly join with Afghanistan in its present Karzai led form or with the southern Afghan territories. The Wardaks, Safi Khels, Kharotian, Awdalyaan, Khiljzian have no right to dictate to these tribes where their destiny will be.

To the second one, well I was talking about what many here are advocating for the future. Now technically you are not entirely right. The Mughals influence ran deep into modern day Afghanistan as well..namely jalalabad and Kabul. It was the southern areas that were under the Saffavid influence. So the dynamic was more north to south. The Mohmands are divided roughly evenly between Pashtunkhwa and Afghanistan, if anything they are the primary example of a divided tribe due to the durand line.

Barakzai I am from Khyber Pashtunkhwa, so I am not assuming anything. I am telling what I believe should happen for Pashtuns to benefit. I never said it will happen right off the bat. Also you have to understand in an event of a collapse of Pakistan, Khyber Pashtnukhwa and Manzanae Pashtunkhwa will form closer unions with the Pashtuns of Afghanistan immediately the east of them. I.e. Ningrahar, Kunarr, paktia, Paktika, khost, etc. The same would be the case for the Pashtuns down south in areas like quetta and Kandahar. Due to the multiple tiers of government in the northern pashtun areas it makes unity at an immediate level difficult but not off the table.

Now to the first issue of Pakistan and US. In an ideal world maybe...however Pakistan has chronic issues from identity to economics. They are beyond broke and are relying on US/UK for lifelines. The major resources they do have are generally in Pashtunkhwa and Baloch areas. Security has deteriorated and their traditional ally is leaps ahead of them. If anything the best thing they could realistically gain is move from one master (US) to another (China) and that too in a world where China, India and Russia will be the major regional brokers.

[BLS_1919v2.0]

Pashtuns comprimise 25% of Pakistan's population. The major pashtun political party is the Awami National party which in turn supports the PPP. Is this correct or not?
Now you have pashtuns, voting for this ANP...so clearly they want to be a part of Pakistan.You don't expect 28 million Pashtuns to take over the rest of Pakistan, the other 100+million, do you? Canada has a similar problem with Quebec wanting to separate itself from the Canadian Federation, do you suppose that this is a natural course of nationalism?

Quebec is a very different situation than Pashtunkhwa. Canada had to make huge compromises and changes to keep Quebec within Canada. Pakistan is deteriorating and it is an outcome we are discussing. Pakistan has not made the same changes in their policy to even be compared to Quebec.

And the fact that ANP and PPP are in a political alliance does not mean they are supporting one another entirely, it is part and parcel of parliamentary politics.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

To the second one, well I was talking about what many here are advocating for the future. Now technically you are not entirely right. The Mughals influence ran deep into modern day Afghanistan as well..namely jalalabad and Kabul. It was the southern areas that were under the Saffavid influence. So the dynamic was more north to south. The Mohmands are divided roughly evenly between Pashtunkhwa and Afghanistan, if anything they are the primary example of a divided tribe due to the durand line.

Barakzai I am from Khyber Pashtunkhwa, so I am not assuming anything. I am telling what I believe should happen for Pashtuns to benefit. I never said it will happen right off the bat. Also you have to understand in an event of a collapse of Pakistan, Khyber Pashtnukhwa and Manzanae Pashtunkhwa will form closer unions with the Pashtuns of Afghanistan immediately the east of them. I.e. Ningrahar, Kunarr, paktia, Paktika, khost, etc. The same would be the case for the Pashtuns down south in areas like quetta and Kandahar. Due to the multiple tiers of government in the northern pashtun areas it makes unity at an immediate level difficult but not off the table.

Now to the first issue of Pakistan and US. In an ideal world maybe...however Pakistan has chronic issues from identity to economics. They are beyond broke and are relying on US/UK for lifelines. The major resources they do have are generally in Pashtunkhwa and Baloch areas. Security has deteriorated and their traditional ally is leaps ahead of them. If anything the best thing they could realistically gain is move from one master (US) to another (China) and that too in a world where China, India and Russia will be the major regional brokers.

Fair enough, you raise some good points I will have to read about and digest. I think its a fairly good and productive discussion we have had here without much rancor. I believe this style of discussion is far more beneficial than the usual back and forth banter. This sort of pushes PF more toward a think tank style discussion forum than the other sorts of bitter vitriol I have seen previously. However, I do hope you concede the very real challanges that I have raised are just that, real challenges. My general concern is that the majority of the Pashtun populace falls within Pakistan. I note that my wife's own personal experiences as a Wazir, within distant relatives married within Peshawar has been generally similar to mine... regionality plays a role in the day to day affairs of a Pashtun. My issue is that there a lot of life lost in the collapse of the East West Pakistan paradigm. Many innocents were killed. The Afghan government and the Pakistani government have shown no qualms about killing for self preservation. Pakistan did it to the Bengladeshis and the Afghan government did it with their Kharoti interventions into Waziristan in the middle of the last century. We ought to take all measures to avoid a repeat of such lunacy.

[BLS_1919v2.0]

Fair enough, you raise some good points I will have to read about and digest. I think its a fairly good and productive discussion we have had here without much rancor. I believe this style of discussion is far more beneficial than the usual back and forth banter. This sort of pushes PF more toward a think tank style discussion forum than the other sorts of bitter vitriol I have seen previously. However, I do hope you concede the very real challanges that I have raised are just that, real challenges. My general concern is that the majority of the Pashtun populace falls within Pakistan. I note that my wife's own personal experiences as a Wazir, within distant relatives married within Peshawar has been generally similar to mine... regionality plays a role in the day to day affairs of a Pashtun. My issue is that there a lot of life lost in the collapse of the East West Pakistan paradigm. Many innocents were killed. The Afghan government and the Pakistani government have shown no qualms about killing for self preservation. Pakistan did it to the Bengladeshis and the Afghan government did it with their Kharoti interventions into Waziristan in the middle of the last century. We ought to take all measures to avoid a repeat of such lunacy.

No I do understand where you are coming from. My own extended family has people from lar au bar. However the trick/challenge is to acknowledge the shortcomings and push it forward to what their interests are. Now there are short term realities then major game changers. I think in the coming years we are heading for that scenario. In such a case I don't think it is plausible for Pashtuns to stay the way they are, nor beneficial.

Well governments will do anything to keep things under a tight grip, it isn't surprising. What is done is done though.

[Toramana]

Pashtuns comprimise 25% of Pakistan's population. The major pashtun political party is the Awami National party which in turn supports the PPP. Is this correct or not?
Now you have pashtuns, voting for this ANP...so clearly they want to be a part of Pakistan.You don't expect 28 million Pashtuns to take over the rest of Pakistan, the other 100+million, do you? Canada has a similar problem with Quebec wanting to separate itself from the Canadian Federation, do you suppose that this is a natural course of nationalism?

It is not the 28 millions Pashtuns to take over the rest of Pakistan...It is the rest versus Punjab. Right now, MQM has maps of Jinnahpur ready to materialise should favourable conditions arise, Sindhis have no sense of loyalty to a primarily Punjabized state, Baluch are carrying out an armed struggle for an independent Baluch homeland, and Pashtuns have gone from a "mood" of pragmatic loyalty to the state to an attitude of ambivalence towards it.

The only people that own Pakistan right now are the Punjabi generals in particular and common Punjabi masses in general.

How can a collapsing, stigmatised state be comparable to Canada in any respect, be economy, political history and traditions, or geographic and demographic realities....? It is laughable to see Pakistanis comparing their country to some of the most robust economies/democracies of the world to underline the strength of their country and the futility of any secessionist struggle...

[Toramana]

Rest, guys, marriages, etc. are good thing but they mostly are social-level phenomena driven by such considerations as familial immediacy, social intimacy, local and regional factors, tribal affiliations, etc...Pashtuns should focus on trans-border economic, political etc. reltlions and cultural and educational exchanges....things that would have more integrating impact ...

But these relations cannot be established without political power...Therefore, the minimum Pashtuns should make sure in any emerging regional order is the right to visa-free relations between Pukhtunkhwa and Southern Afghanistan as well as cross-border economic and cultural initiatives e.g. joint chamber of commerce, etc. The real goal should be the eventual Pashtun unification in any arrangement...

I don't think these things could be won without a practical struggle...No one is going to give us the above rights voluntarily...We have to struggle for it...More expectedly, when the region will be engulfed by an upheaval in the form of a civil war between various ethnicities either in Pakistan and/or Afghanistan, a need for unity will automatically arise in Pashtuns ... Imagine Pashtuns fighting with Punjabis over Tarbela Dam (to whose support would probably come India driven by the Sikh factor ....)...

[Azmal]

Good discussion….i think education is not the panacea for economic development. Uzbekistan with its Soviet style compulsory education and 99% literacy still has a per capita GDP of only $1,920 (according to Wikipedia), whereas Afghanistan has a per capita GDP of $1,310 with a much lower literacy rate. Thus, a high degree of investment in education in no way guarantees a country an escape from crippling poverty. The education has to reflect the economic opportunity set facing a society. People will invest in education when they deem in beneficial to them.

Economically…the entity known as "Pakistan" has a monopoly over:

1) granting trade access routes from the port at Karachi to Pashtonistan,

2) trade destined for Afghanistan and from Afghanistan

3) trade from the Central Asian states and to the Central Asian states. By default they have to work through Russia at present.

This monopoly of control gives Pakistan an economic and political lever over the landlocked states of Central Asia, including Afghanistan.

Thus an independent state of Pashtonistan/Balouchistan with a port at Gwadar provides a competitive trade port alternative to Karachi. Thereafter the Paki monopoly is busted.

That reduces Pakistan's political leverage over her neighbors to her north and that is a key benefit of breaking up "Pakistan" (a name that is an acronym for its separate nations that lie within its boundaries).

Reduced economic and political leverage will promote rational behavior and foreign policy out of the Punjabi power elites of Islamabad. Why? Because to survive in the long run they will have to cooperate with their independent neighbors: Balouchsitan, Kashmir, Sindh, etc.

At present Pakistan has the world's 4th largest standing army and devotes an unconscionable percentage of its GDP to military expenditures. It is a disaster waiting to happen.

[randolph85]

the only realistic idea of a merger would be between fata and afg. kp is too ingrained into pakistan for there to be a split unless the state just collapses and afghanistan is stable enough politically and economically to look good to kp for a merger.

though having fata as part of afg would be pretty much pointless as its just more people, more security problems, and the land has no economic benefit.

although having balochistan join afg would be a far greater benefit than fata or kp.

[Michin Khel]

Barakzai I am from Khyber Pashtunkhwa, so I am not assuming anything. I am telling what I believe should happen for Pashtuns to benefit. I never said it will happen right off the bat..

And tell him where do you live. And tell me do you possess Domicile of Shangla?

[BLS_1919v2.0]

And tell him where do you live. And tell me do you possess Domicile of Shangla?

I know where I live, he knows as well, so do you :-). BTW is this all you can do to counter me lolzz. Poor lost lost soul.

[Michin Khel]

the only realistic idea of a merger would be between fata and afg. kp is too ingrained into pakistan for there to be a split unless the state just collapses and afghanistan is stable enough politically and economically to look good to kp for a merger.

though having fata as part of afg would be pretty much pointless as its just more people, more security problems, and the land has no economic benefit.

although having balochistan join afg would be a far greater benefit than fata or kp.

So you want KP and Balochistan so that it economically benefit Afghanistan. And you are not interested in FATA as it is barren mountainous area......at least Pakistan is not throwing off FATA, tribals are every where in Pakistan for jobs and other economic opportunities, you can guess they would not join Afghanistan.......a country with terrain like FATA.
As I have already stated that Afghans want 30 million Pashtuns of Pakistan to subdue powerful minorities like tajiks while wish for increase in area of country, which is natural.