Afghanistan a Failing State by Real Economic Measures

[BarakzaiAbdali]

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/a...id-afghanistan

The new inspector general for Afghanistan appears to be an honest man who openly proclaimed attempted pressuring by the technocrat emigre government and by Obama's government. Thankfully, the stir he generated has given him clear backing. Here is some of his latest assessment:

"In a recent quarterly report, the US special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction said that, when security for aid workers is figured in, the total amount of nonmilitary funds Washington has appropriated since 2002 “is approximately $100 billion”—more than the US has ever spent to rebuild a country. That estimate came out in July. Since then, Congress has appropriated another $16.5 billion for “reconstruction.” And all of that has not bought the United States or the Afghans a single sustainable institution or program...

What has all that spending accomplished? “The short answer is not so much,” said Masood Farivar, a senior Afghan journalist. Or, as the International Crisis Group put it, “despite billions of dollars in aid, state institutions remain fragile and unable to provide good governance, deliver basic services to the majority of the population or guarantee human security."

[BarakzaiAbdali]

This is some additional reality check:

"As for all those new schools: The Taliban have attacked, bombed, or blown up hundreds of them—more than one hundred just last year, the UN reported. And for those that remain standing, few have electricity or running water. Teachers are barely educated, often unpaid, “and the text books are mostly outdated,” said Javid Ahmad, an Afghan writer and former aid worker there. “They’re mostly Pakistani, Iranian or Indian, published in the seventies or eighties.”
People love to talk about how many more girls are in school now, he acknowledged. But no one talks about what they’re actually learning."

[Toramana]

Don't get jealous you Taleb loser. There is the Afghan elite like Karazi and Qanuni building it. Mullah Omar's barbarism is not gonna come for you again. Afghanistan is now a civilized state.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Don't get jealous you Taleb loser. There is the Afghan elite like Karazi and Qanuni building it. Mullah Omar's barbarism is gonna come for you again. Afghanistan is now a civilized state.

Loser as in unanimously losing an election lately to your adversary? LOOOOOLLLLLLLLLL

After bragging about putting a paper sign on a university door that says "Pohantoon" its a wonder how you thought perpetual corruption would be appreciated by Pashtuns in KP.

Brak brak brak brak khandama: Do you know who Qanooni even is?
http://www.eurasianet.org/department...v062002a.shtml
Qanooni hates Karzai... but its OK your grief at unanimous rejection is like when a teenage girl with pimples doesnt get to go to a Justin Bieber concert (you are reeling in nonsense).

Reduced to a Red Cap ex marxist turned capitalist troll on my commentary the once great Toramana has finally succumbed to his Prakashardharma - a bitter and twice defeated figure of great tragedy.

Me:

Toramana Al-Depressed:
stage 1 on election night
stage 2 of grief next night
stage 3 of grief in recent days
stage 4 of grief
stage 5 in coming days with brain aneurysm

[Toramana]

Mullaism and Al-Qauedism are stories of the past. World has moved centuries ahead to return to the reign of Mullah Omar, you jealous loser. Come out of the shell now and smell the snuff (naswar).

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Mullaism and Al-Qauedism are stories of the past. World has moved centuries ahead to return to the reign of Mullah Omar, you jealous loser. Come out of the shell now and smell the snuff (naswar).

Hmmm lol. Actually your policies set the clock back - but I wont rehash or re-educate you on that. Automatans like your self are preprogrammed in some dairaan behind Mr. Asfandyaar's boutique in Peshawar - and reprogramming you guys is not worth the cost. Mullah Omar is your hero or perhaps anti hero Mr. Al-Depression - you need him the way Juliet needs Romeo or Lala needs Majnun. Tis you that appears depressed by his absence not me.

I see that you are reduced to making anti Pashtun jokes (naswar). So sad, the "greatest nationalist of our age and Shah e Shagaan of the Red Cap era" is now writhing in burnt agony at the rejection of the very people he thought would hoist him on their shoulders. Yet a mere cricket player ousted you guys.

I cannot believe you are reduced to Pashtun stereotype jokes out of hatred for your own qaumoona that chose everyone other than you.

[Manzareh]

Mullaism? Thats a new one, what's one of those? Is it another made up word like Islamist? Whats next for barakzai? religionists?

[SiiNii]

Don't get jealous you Taleb loser. There is the Afghan elite like Karazi and Qanuni building it. Mullah Omar's barbarism is not gonna come for you again. Afghanistan is now a civilized state.

Do you live in there? I was there not long ago during a lunar eclipse, all of our Afghan truck drivers were crowded together, hiding in a building because as they said "The Moon was sick". Now these were men who knew how to operate and repair large diesel cargo trucks, not farmers or shepherds.

[SiiNii]

Mullaism and Al-Qauedism are stories of the past. World has moved centuries ahead to return to the reign of Mullah Omar, you jealous loser. Come out of the shell now and smell the snuff (naswar).

Nobody here is saying that the Taliban will recapture the entire country, or that Al Qaeda is even a significant presence. The article says that rebuilding has failed, the central government has failed, and will continue to fail.

[JAMALUDEEN]

Talebans solution... blow up schools. Lol seriously..and they wanted to run a country..far out..

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Talebans solution... blow up schools. Lol seriously..and they wanted to run a country..far out..

Its a proven fact intervention breeds radicalization. There is a wonderful expose written about a villager who was old enough to remember the last British raids and skirmishes near the border and also lasted through the Soviet conflict. He noted that when the Soviets invaded Najib also built a lot of schools in his area and the author went on to show how the schools did promote some element of indoctrination to Parcham and Khalq ideologies. He went on to note how local groups first targeted these places in the 80s. Prior to the presence of outside super powers intervening - this radicalized response to associate education with anything Western was absent. To show the extent of how even in the British era a sort of reflex rejection occurred of Western education - across the border when the British still were in the former NWFP province adults to used to tell kids a little misaal about how a seat at the table of education was equivalent to a seat in hell.

Even after the kharijaan leave this phenomena will likely continue but taper off if they see less and less interventionalism.

Doesnt make it right - but its a phenomena seen world round in Columbia where FARC operated (i.e. attacking anything that even resembled capitalism including civilian interests) to other hot spots.

And Toramana - keep your cool - I think education of any sort even secular is fine - but to ignore the environment while imposing it (i.e. a war torn and occupied country) is utterly bereft of common sense. Its like asking the body why its having a fever response to sepsis.

But at the end of the day agreed that doing this sort of thing is counterproductive and finds no basis in Islamic jurisprudence etc.

[JAMALUDEEN]

Its a proven fact intervention breeds radicalization. There is a wonderful expose written about a villager who was old enough to remember the last British raids and skirmishes near the border and also lasted through the Soviet conflict. He noted that when the Soviets invaded Najib also built a lot of schools in his area and the author went on to show how the schools did promote some element of indoctrination to Parcham and Khalq ideologies. He went on to note how local groups first targeted these places in the 80s. Prior to the presence of outside super powers intervening - this radicalized response to associate education with anything Western was absent. To show the extent of how even in the British era a sort of reflex rejection occurred of Western education - across the border when the British still were in the former NWFP province adults to used to tell kids a little misaal about how a seat at the table of education was equivalent to a seat in hell.

Even after the kharijaan leave this phenomena will likely continue but taper off if they see less and less interventionalism.

Doesnt make it right - but its a phenomena seen world round in Columbia where FARC operated (i.e. attacking anything that even resembled capitalism including civilian interests) to other hot spots.

And Toramana - keep your cool - I think education of any sort even secular is fine - but to ignore the environment while imposing it (i.e. a war torn and occupied country) is utterly bereft of common sense. Its like asking the body why its having a fever response to sepsis.

But at the end of the day agreed that doing this sort of thing is counterproductive and finds no basis in Islamic jurisprudence etc.

Thanks for response.

That is very true and it's amazing how the taleban still haven't learnt from their past mistakes.

[ComradePashtun]

The quotes in your first and second posts are both unfair assesment/lies. Out of the 100 billions apparently only 15% had been spent by the Afghan govt. the rest 85% your government should disclose how and where they are spent. I hinted at this in my other post in your other thread.

By the way everything your churn out here are subjective and you do not want to miss any opportunity to only criticize the Afghan government. You do no appreciate the good progress in Afghanistan which is wold different from the Taliban which inspires you. What you selectively quote here is not really the entire story. Read out world bank projections and analysis for the coming decade. They are interesting.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

The quotes in your first and second posts are both unfair assesment/lies. Out of the 100 billions apparently only 15% had been spent by the Afghan govt. the rest 85% your government should disclose how and where they are spent. I hinted at this in my other post in your other thread.

I disagree and the appended shows why:
Afghan corruption worth twice government revenue: report | Reuters

The other confounder in your logic is that the WHOLE Afghan economy is admittedly dependent on foreign aid. The Afghan currency is ATTACHED in its health at the hip to the US aid:

"According to Vanda Felbab-Brown, an Afghanistan specialist at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, the U.S. aid that has flooded into Helmand and Kandahar provinces, instead of bringing sustainable development, has distorted local economies and triggered “contests over the spoils”

She added that she believes that turning off the U.S. spigot will produce “a massive economic constriction” inside the country that could increase political instability."

Now going back to that first one, an interesting barometer of how much of the corruption is endemic and how much can be referred to US recycling its revenue through US contractors that end up in Afghanistan to do a shoddy job:

"A figure equal to twice the Afghan government's domestic revenue - $3.9 billion - was gouged from the country by public sector corruption last year, a U.N. report said on Thursday. This amount is also roughly equal to the annual aid pledged to Afghanistan until 2015 by the international community at last year's Tokyo Conference."

Do you understand how that ties into this? It means that IRRESPECTIVE of whatever games the US plays - the funds even injected into the PUBLIC sector of Afghanistan ends up playing a role in rife corruption. These figures are independent from SIGAR and UNODC.

The World Bank? Ill do you one better... Ill provide you the IMF assessments:

"Macroeconomic developments in 2011 were mixed, but the economy was
sustained by donor inflows. Real GDP growth slowed to around 6 percent, from over8 percent in 2010, reflecting a poor harvest."

And despite the attempt to paint a rosy picture by noting attempts by Afghan officials to respond to their concerns (hence justifying sustained IMF loans), they indicate clearly that their projections are based on sustained involvements by outside power.

Here is the combined World Bank and IMF statement on projections for withdrawal:

"Over the coming three to five years, Afghanistan will face additional challenges as the international military presence is wound down and the government has to take over spending currently financed by donors. Foreign troops are expected to gradually withdraw by 2014. As a result, Afghanistan’s security forces will have to take over more responsibility, leading to higher spending. At the same time, the government may lose revenues related to spending by foreign troops in Afghanistan. Moreover, it is likely that the
donor footprint will gradually shrink, with total grants projected to decline from an estimated more than 40 percent of GDP in 2010/11 to less than 30 percent of GDP in 2013/14. These developments will weigh heavily on economic activity and require difficult decisions to ensure fiscal survival."

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11330.pdf

Here is the Economists assessment of the matter and of the World Bank data under scrutiny:

"Even with the pledged $4 billion a year, optimistic projections show GDP growth falling from 9% to below 5%. Investment is badly needed, but investors demand security."

Afghanistan

It reiterates the above noted IMF information:

"Afghanistan is hugely dependent on aid. A World Bank analysis in May suggests that only Gaza, the West Bank and Liberia have been so reliant. In the year to September 30th 2011 aid was the equivalent of Afghanistan’s entire GDP (see chart)."









By the way everything your churn out here are subjective and you do not want to miss any opportunity to only criticize the Afghan government.

I disagree - I think I have provided balanced and reasonable sources and even gone back and looked at the groups you recommended and their projections. I fear that you want to think that they are subjective for the same reason that the Kabul technocrats want to be able to tout fake military progress on the border - the illusion of constancy and progress is important even if there is none because no one wants this ponzi scheme to fail. After all, a lot of emigres have made a lot of money off this war and a whole lot of people would go back to being unaccomplished and unimportant should they get thrown back out and into the West where they cannot buy their kid a seat in college and take the place of another child who was a meritocrat. And I feel comfortable criticizing this government devised by elites who failed their people in their time of need (yet their people helped themselves out of the Russian rut despite that absence of that urban elite and their derilection of duty . Folks like Mr. Karzai, Mr. Arsala, Mr. Ghani, and others did none of the heavy lifting to ensure Afghanistan remained free of the Russian Red Army juggernaut - but these simple people did. The former sat in Quetta coffee shops munching on sugared almonds and drinking green tea growling about war while lots of other folks ended up winning that war against Russian oppression with little more than no family name and a few loaves of bread and a cup of rice divided among those that already were destitute. Relatives of the king like his son, the crown prince were enjoying Italian mudbathes. These are no Jeffersons or Washingtons who led their people in the rigors of a war that might risk their own neck. Their hands are soft and their brains are small - a brutal combination ensuring failure. These are the same folks who felt themselves Khanaan designated to pumping gas in the West and now they think its their turn to go back and teach the "natives" how to live like them

You do no appreciate the good progress in Afghanistan which is wold different from the Taliban which inspires you.

The Taliban do not inspire me nor did I say that I agree with their philosophies. These are things that people assume about me - but where they to assemble all of my postings here, never have I ever said that I want so and so in power. All I have said is that Karzai and his associated cronies and the emigre technocrats are unfit for power and that it is an utter shame to dismiss the accomplishments of the Afghan countryside in securing their own freedom while the latter risked nothing. Rather, I refer to your own past quote here that I appreciated in which you yourself admitted that they raced through the country side because they did have an affinity with the people and were of them. I personally just think that it is detestable that people here want to limit their contact with reality and make up stories about Hamid Gul dressing up in a pagraay and outfitting a bunch of panjabies so as to marginalize a whole massive swathe of the Afghan population. And as I said, I commend you acknowledging the real makeup of these groups and their being of the Afghan fabric.

Karzai's own henchman, Kawun Kakar has written volumes on the history and indicated that when it comes to the rural masses and the villages - their ideologies were more reflective of the populace versus the urbanized elite of Kabul. That is what I have a moral problem with. I do not think that the blood of any of America's children or Afghanistan's should be spent to prop up corrupt autocrats and elites who did nadda for their people and who pretty much do their best to wet their own egos while believing that they are god's gift to the whole of Afghanistan (i.e. they think they can teach them how to be civilized and live by their own standards).

What you selectively quote here is not really the entire story. Read out world bank projections and analysis for the coming decade. They are interesting.

Thanks for the referral and I looked into it - remember those projections have to be examined in light of the IMF and World Bank projections above. And this is the same world bank by the way that works to keep the third world in perpetual debt - so that is what I mean - take what they say with a grain of salt as they too have their own agenda. Once again, i greatly respect your honesty here in the past when you discussed the reality of the insurgency with Soldat and rebuked the theory that the insurgents are Pakistanis in disguise etc. I think your honesty, if you continue to express it will save lives and help halt the improper support for wars. The Afghan government needs people like you to stand up for the values and independence of its people without the chicanery of trying to use subterfuge and misrepresentations to sustain endemic corruption

x

[ComradePashtun]

BA,

I think any one with an ounce of brain would know that of course much of the socio-economic progress so far fostered in Afghanistan over the decade has to do with external assistance and if to sustain this into another 10 years as it has leapfrogged towards becoming self-sufficient and a viable state by the 21st century standard it would require external assistance for some time to come. Can you otherwise tell us how the situation would have been different had we the opposite and you beloved apocalyptic Puritan Talibanis running the show, the so called rural representatives of Afghans? The point is that there has been tremendous progress over the past 10 years, granted that there are challenges be it politics, corruption, lack of state capacity etc. I am just hoping that Afghanistan does not revert to the barbaric era of your friends and actually comes out of it and actually make it despite the current mess and challenges. The analysis I referred you to was based on the assumption that external support is maintained, corruption taken out, and good governance promoted then the future could be something much brighter and Afghanistan to make it to become a viable and self-sufficient state. It is a prediction of course. You take your wild guess under the pre-intervention mode scenario. Go for it we are all ears.

You are entitled to your criticism but I think that it is not fair anything that has gone awry is to blame it on Karzai, Ashraf Ghani, Amin Arsala etc. and based on what you are saying that they don't belong to Afghanistan in the first place and the real Afghan are the rural population. So which rural fella would you recommend to run Afghanistan, not Mullah Omar please? lol Do you really thing that these guys literally control everything in Afghanistan? Surely you must be not making a case for the zombies called Taliban. While we can rightly criticise Karzai and his government, but it is by far a pluralistic and representative of most strata of the Afghan society. While Ahadi, Ashraf Ghani and Ludins might be what you have as the technocrats in Afghanistan, surely a bum like Mullah Omar could not run finance, trade and foreign ministry. Rest assured there are not many of these technocrats in Afghanistan and nor do they I think control everything in Afghanistan. Anything outside Kabul the rurals which is majority of the Afghans and those who have never left Afghanistan are in control of. Of course Talibs and other splinter groups like the HIA and Hqanis excluded. That is a fact. Many are here to be blamed which would easily surpass just the soft-hand people you like to talk up and have scorn for? What is this obsession? :-(

I have always maintained that the conflict has its inside Afghanistan dynamics and I do not ascribe to views of the likes of Soldat etc. But the Pakistani factor and it being abetting the insurgency and destabilizing Afghanistan cannot be turned blind eye to either. So far neither the government and its foreign backers nor the Taliban have been reasonable to find a solution to the conflict. But this is a different discussion.