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PASHTUN POPULATION: AN ESTIMATE
Dr. Nabi Misdaq
Pashtun according to all historical records is one of the oldest and presently one of the largest nation in South Asia. Unfortunately, the 9/11 catastrophic events in America have given the wrong impression that this old civilization is somewhat responsible for what happened, while none of those who were involved in these attacks on New York and Washington were Pashtuns, nor aware of Al-Qaeda worldwide campaign. So it is wrong to equate the great and valorous Pashtun nation either with Taliban or Al-Qaeda. In other words, not even all Taliban is Al-Qaeda nor all Pashtuns are Taliban. The Pashtun nation is a subject of immense interest and relevance today, because of the ongoing global war on terror, a lot more people want to know as much about us Pashtuns as possible.
One such aspect is the total population of Pashtuns, which remains highly controversial. Since there is a lot of exaggeration and under estimation of the Pashtun population, using my own research and various surveys and sample estimates, I want to put all these together
so that we can get as close to the real figure of Pashtun population as possible. While we do not have figures from accurate censuses for all of the Pashtun population in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as abroad, there are some statistics that gives a good understanding that the Pashtun are among the largest nations in South Asia. Their number is second to Punjabis and equal to that of Farsi speaking people in Iran. Pashtuns are more numerous than any of the other ethnic or tribal people who live in South Asia.Pashtun, like the Baluchis and Turkmen, are a tribal people. Unlike these last two groups, Pashtun are one of the largest tribal groups in the world, equaling to two tribal Muslim groups in Nigeria- the Fulani and the Housa. While the Housa are in northern Nigeria, the Fulani, majority of who live there too, but the rest are scattered over the Sahil, (south of the Sahara all the way to east Africa). Pashtun too are located over a large area from Herat to the Indus River. The other characteristic of Pashtun is that they are Sunni Muslim, followers of the Hanafi line. Others, who have come over the years and have chosen to live among the Pashtun, may speak Pashto and will have adopted Pashtun ways, but most often they are not Sunnis or Hanafis.
One such aspect is the total population of Pashtuns, which remains highly controversial. Since there is a lot of exaggeration and under estimation of the Pashtun population, using my own research and various surveys and sample estimates, I want to put all these together
so that we can get as close to the real figure of Pashtun population as possible. While we do not have figures from accurate censuses for all of the Pashtun population in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as abroad, there are some statistics that gives a good understanding that the Pashtun are among the largest nations in South Asia. Their number is second to Punjabis and equal to that of Farsi speaking people in Iran. Pashtuns are more numerous than any of the other ethnic or tribal people who live in South Asia.Pashtun, like the Baluchis and Turkmen, are a tribal people. Unlike these last two groups, Pashtun are one of the largest tribal groups in the world, equaling to two tribal Muslim groups in Nigeria- the Fulani and the Housa. While the Housa are in northern Nigeria, the Fulani, majority of who live there too, but the rest are scattered over the Sahil, (south of the Sahara all the way to east Africa). Pashtun too are located over a large area from Herat to the Indus River. The other characteristic of Pashtun is that they are Sunni Muslim, followers of the Hanafi line. Others, who have come over the years and have chosen to live among the Pashtun, may speak Pashto and will have adopted Pashtun ways, but most often they are not Sunnis or Hanafis.
Now let us have a look at the statistics already available about the Pashtun.The population of Pakistan according to the latest census carried out in 1998 was 164 million. For convenience let us say it has increased by six million since then and is now 170 million. In that census, it was revealed that the number of settled Pashtun who pay taxes to the government in Islamabad and are eligible to vote is 13 per cent. This means that the number of these settled Pashtun is about 21 millions. This census does not take into account the autonomous tribal areas of FATA, and Pashtuns living in the city of Karachi, Lahore or other cities outside the NWFP. If we assume the number of Pashtun in these areas to be 16 million it gives us a total figure for Pashtun Population in Pakistan as 37 million. There has not been a national census in Afghanistan, but WAK Foundation in 1996, having covered all the provinces, districts and sub-districts of Afghanistan came up with the figure that 62.5 per cent of Afghan population describe themselves
as Pashtun. If we take the population of the whole of Afghanistan as 35 million, the Pashtun are about 18 millions. Add this to 37 million in Pakistan and we arrive at the figure 55 million for both the countries.
Pashtun have ruled, on and off, in the Indian Sub - Continent for something like 275 years. There are Pashtun in India who still claim their Pashtun identity, their tribal names or simply Afghan. If one would to put a figure of ten million to the Pashtun population in India, it will not be an exaggeration. Let us say five million more in other parts of the world, like in the Gulf where there are a large number of Pashtun people, South East Asian countries like Malaysia and Thailand and the Western World. This makes Pashtun living abroad at a minimum 15 million and if you
add that to the total figure for Pashtun, the total comes to 70 million. As I mentioned earlier, we do not have accurate statistics, but on conservative estimate, this is the number that one comes up with on the basis of the above analysis. Let us stick to this number till more scientific statistics are carried out which will put the population of this ancient people on much firmer grounds. My guess is that it will not be much
different from the above figures, give and take a few millions.
The writer is an Afghan journalist who studied English Language from Cambridge, did his B.Sc (Hons) from the London School of Economics and his MA and Ph.D from Sussex University,UK. He is presently engaged in Pashto Language Curriculum Development with Diplomatic Language Services in Arlington,Virginia(USA). He is also the founder of BBC Pashto Service
.
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