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On 15 June, Iran put its second ever satellite, Rasad-1, into orbit 260
kilometres above Earth. The nation hopes to use the experience to
launch a monkey into space this year and, by 2019, a human. The worry
is that such rockets could also be used to fire missiles at targets on
Earth.
At 15 kilograms, Rasad-1 may be tiny, but it is a boost to Iran's space
capabilities, says Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation think
tank, headquartered in Washington DC.
"People wondered after the first time if they just got lucky," he says.
"Now that they've put two satellites up there, that indicates perhaps it
wasn't a fluke the first time. It demonstrates that their rocket
technology is pretty good."
Monkey on-board
Rasad-1 is reportedly taking low-resolution images of Earth. But its
launch seems intended mainly to give the country more experience in
launching and operating satellites.
It is one step forward in what looks like an ambitious space plan, says
Laura Grego of the Union of Concerned Scientists in Cambridge,
Massachusetts. "They have this pretty ambitious list of six or seven
satellites over the next three years," she says.
At least one of them is expected to carry an animal on board. Iran's
state-run television company says the country will launch a monkey into
orbit on a one-way trip "later this year". It also says Iran plans to launch
an astronaut into space by 2019.
"The monkey seems perfectly plausible," Weeden says. Flying and safely
returning a human to Earth by 2019 is more of a stretch, but it might be
possible for Iran if it is a suborbital hop rather than a more challenging
orbital flight, he says.
Dual use
Countries tend to pursue human space flight for the prestige it brings, so
that could be Iran's motivation, he says. "One possibility is that Iran
sees this as a way to bolster their image both domestically and
internationally," he says.
There has been concern in western countries, especially in the US,
about Iran's space programme. That is because rockets that can launch
satellites can also be used as missiles to attack targets on the ground -
a concern enhanced by western suspicions that Iran is trying to develop
nuclear weapons, which it denies.
However, the rocket that launched Rasad-1 appears to have been very
similar in capability to the Safir-2 rocket used to launch Iran's first
satellite in 2009. Safir-2 is not powerful enough to send a nuclear
warhead as far as the US from Iran.
Rocketry "certainly is a dual use technology", Weeden says. Countries
can help avoid arousing suspicions by being open about their plans, he
adds, by announcing their launches ahead of time, for example.