China 'to overtake US on science' in two years

[din]

8 March 2011 Last updated at 17:28 ET Share this page

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China 'to overtake US on science' in two years

David Shukman Science and environment correspondent, BBC News China's surge in progress could soon overwhelm the US, say experts
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China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected.
That is the conclusion of a major new study by the Royal Society, the UK's national science academy.
The country that invented the compass, gunpowder, paper and printing is set for a globally important comeback.
An analysis of published research - one of the key measures of scientific effort - reveals an "especially striking" rise by Chinese science.
The study, Knowledge, Networks and Nations, charts the challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan.
The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier.
'No surprise' In 1996, the first year of the analysis, the US published 292,513 papers - more 10 times China's 25,474.
By 2008, the US total had increased very slightly to 316,317 while China's had surged more than seven-fold to 184,080.
Previous estimates for the rate of expansion of Chinese science had suggested that China might overtake the US sometime after 2020.
Continue reading the main story “Start Quote

There are many millions of graduates but they are mandated to publish so the numbers are high”

End Quote Dr Cong Cao Nottingham University
But this study shows that China, after displacing the UK as the world's second leading producer of research, could go on to overtake America in as little as two years' time.
"Projections vary, but a simple linear interpretation of Elsevier's publishing data suggests that this could take place as early as 2013," it says.
Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, chair of the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase because of China's massive boost to investment in R&D.
Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006.
"I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent."
The report stresses that American research output will not decline in absolute terms and raises the possibility of countries like Japan and France rising to meet the Chinese challenge.
"But the potential for China to match American output in terms of sheer numbers in the near to medium term is clear."
Quality questions The authors describe "dramatic" changes in the global scientific landscape and warn that this has implications for a nation's competitiveness.
According to the report, "The scientific league tables are not just about prestige - they are a barometer of a country's ability to compete on the world stage".
Along with the growth of the Chinese economy, this is yet another indicator of China's extraordinarily rapid rise as a global force.
However the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality.
One key indicator of the value of any research is the number of times it is quoted by other scientists in their work.
Although China has risen in the "citation" rankings, its performance on this measure lags behind its investment and publication rate.
"It will take some time for the absolute output of emerging nations to challenge the rate at which this research is referenced by the international scientific community."
The UK's scientific papers are still the second most-cited in the world, after the US.
Dr Cong Cao, associate professor at Nottingham University's School of Contemporary Chinese Studies, agrees with the assessment that the quantity of China's science is yet not matched by its quality.
A sociologist originally from Shanghai, Dr Cao told the BBC: "There are many millions of graduates but they are mandated to publish so the numbers are high.
"It will take many years for some of the research to catch up to Western standards."
As to China's motivation, Dr Cao believes that there is a determination not to be dependent on foreign know-how - and to reclaim the country's historic role as a global leader in technology.

[Haris]

How China dominates solar
power


Huge loans from the Chinese Development Bank are helping
Chinese solar companies push American solar firms out of
the market


An employee displays a solar panel at a workshop in a factory in Hangzhou, Zhejiang
province. Photograph: LANG LANG/REUTERS

Armed with tens of billions in loans from the Chinese government, Chinese solar
companies have scaled at a rate unthinkable only a few years ago. At the end of this
year, there will likely be 50,000 megawatts (MW) of manufacturing capacity in place
around the world, with much of that new capacity being developed in China and other
Asian countries. (In the year 2000, there were only 100 MW of production capacity
worldwide.)


In four years, the solar manufacturing sector shifted from being led by a
geographically dispersed number of companies to one dominated by Chinese
companies. In 2006, there were two companies from China in the list of top ten cell
producers. In 2010, there were six, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.


There are currently only two non-Asian manufacturers in the top ten, and those
companies -- First Solar and Q-Cells -- have shifted a lot of their production to Asia.


So what happened? How did the Chinese come to completely dominate the solar
industry in such a short period of time?


Bryan Ashley, the Chief Marketing Officer for Suniva, an American company that
produces high-efficiency solar cells in Georgia, doesn't mince words.


"The Chinese strategy is very clear. They are engaging in predatory financing and
they're trying to drive everybody else out of the market. When you've got free money
you can out-dump everybody below cost," Ashley said in an interview with Climate
Progress.


That "free money" Ashley refers to is the cheap debt provided by the
Chinese Development Bank (CDB). Here's how the CDB works its magic.


The CDB was originally set up as a "policy bank," to operate as an arm of the Chinese
central government, doling out public funding to support central government
development programs. Now it is a "joint stock company with limited liability" that
often reports to China's national cabinet on certain policy issues. This allows the
Chinese government to get involved in CDB activities and direct loans toward projects
officials want to support.


Unlike most regular commercial banks, CDB raises most of its money
via long-term bonds. Funders cannot take that money back out until the term is up,
so the bank can make longer-term loans to Chinese companies. CDB also gives
borrowers very low interest rates, and, if the borrower cannot pay back the loan, it
may be back-stopped by the Chinese government.


This makes it easier, cheaper, and a lot less risky for solar companies to obtain
financing.




In 2010 alone, the bank handed out $30 billion in low-cost loans to the top five
manufacturers in the country. (See chart above.) This has enabled China's solar
producers to grow to GW scale in a very short period of time, turning the country into
a leading exporter of solar and pushing down prices dramatically.


From a project development perspective, those steep price drops are a very good
thing. But manufacturers trying to make product outside of China and other Asian
countries are getting hit hard.


"Free money is impossible to compete with," said Ashley. "Even when global demand
went down they were able to keep producing, producing, producing," said Ashley.


"And now they're dumping. If something isn't done, there will be no American product
left on the market."


Allegations of solar panel dumping have been made before in Europe and the U.S., but
they have never been proven. In 2009, Suntech CEO Shi Zengrong explained in a
conference call that his company was selling panels below marginal costs. But he
reversed his statement shortly after, saying he misunderstood the reporter's question.


With Chinese producers in a far more dominant position than in 2009 and a slew of
solar manufacturing facility closures announced in the U.S. in recent months,
concerns about dumping have resurfaced. Just yesterday, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden
sent a letter to President Obama asking him to investigate whether or not Chinese
companies are selling product below cost in order to push American producers out of
the market. He also called on the administration to implement a trade tariff on Chinese
modules:

Letting that happen is unacceptable. Please know that if your
administration is unwilling to take the appropriate steps, with
haste, I will advance a legislative effort, as provided by the
U.S. trade remedy laws, to ensure that the American solar
industry is not harmed by unfair trade.

Wyden's letter comes after the high-profile bankruptcies of American solar
manufacturers Solyndra and Evergreen. While a variety of technological and
market-based factors contributed to the demise of these companies, the Chinese
competition -- driven by cheap, easy debt -- played a central role.


Remarkably, even with all the pressure from China, the U.S. is a net exporter of solar
products to the country. A new report issued by GTM Research and the Solar Energy
Industries Association shows that America had a $247 million solar trade surplus with
China in 2010, mostly because of polysilicon and equipment shipments.


"Yeah, that's great. But we're just sending the raw materials and buying back the
finished goods," explained Suniva's Bryan Ashley. "That's a going-out-of-business
strategy. Pretty soon they'll figure out how to produce quality polysilicon and they'll
be doing it all themselves. We need to re-learn how to make things in this country."


Ashley would like to see a Buy America provision for certain installation programs and
investigation into the dumping issue.


But rather than engage in trade battles, GTM Research's Director of Solar Shayle Kann
believes that America needs to put its focus on technological innovation. Testifying in
front of the House Natural Resources Committee yesterday, Kann explained the
strategy:

It will be difficult for the U.S. to compete with China at its own
game -- namely, high-volume manufacturing of a commoditized
product -- given the cost advantages available for Chinese
manufacturing. However, the U.S. can and should continue to
develop and commercialize innovative technologies that offer
lower costs than traditional panels. These new technologies are
generally proprietary, require a more skilled labor force, and are
difficult to duplicate.

Suniva could be considered part of this category. Using a unique cell design, the
company has created a high-efficiency mono-crystalline solar cell that could compete
with SunPower. But with all the cheap debt that the Chinese government is throwing
at domestic companies, Suniva is finding it increasingly tough to stay in the U.S.


"If something isn't done, no one will be making solar PV in the U.S.," said Ashley.


The situation is a difficult one. China's domestic efforts are helping drop the price of
solar at an astonishing pace -- something that everyone in the solar industry wants.


But it's also making it extraordinarily difficult for American solar manufacturers to
compete.


The United States invented the modern solar cell over a half century ago. As China
continues to boost domestic solar companies, the American solar industry will be
asking some hard questions about how -- and if -- solar manufacturing can ever make
it in a big way in the U.S.


• Stephen Lacey is a reporter with Climate Progress covering clean energy issues. He
formerly worked as a producer/editor at RenewableEnergyWorld.com.




How China dominates solar power | Environment | guardian.co.uk

[kakargirl]

Excellent news .