Uncle Sam, energy and peace in Asia

[Toramana]

Uncle Sam, energy and peace in Asia

By M K Bhadrakumar

In the Orient, offspring don't rebuke parents, even if the latter are at fault - especially in the post-Soviet space where Marxian formalism continues to prevail as political culture. The sort of stern public rebuke bordering on short shrift that Ashgabat administered to Moscow is extraordinary.

But then, Moscow tested Turkmen patience by trying to create confusion about Ashgabat's policy of positive "neutrality" - building energy bridges to the West alongside its thriving cooperation with Russia and China.

On Thursday, the Turkmen Foreign Ministry bluntly rejected any role for Russia in the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, commonly known as TAPI. Ashgabat alleged that Moscow is spreading calumnies and

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LJ30Ag01.html

[ComradePashtun]

Manana. China is already there and for good. Only Russians might lose at the end, and perhaps may be Iran in some respects, indirectly though.

[ComradePashtun]

I don't have a stance on it, but few things that shapes up the basic idea of how I think only Russia will be challenged persistently while China will make strides as a result of U.S. Russian competition in the region.

It all begins with the end of bipolar world and break up of Soviet Union which some what unleashed a new era for Central Asian States. Rusia was content that it is still the hegemon and looked at these countries in more of a patrimonial eye. This view was aided by the acquiescence from Chinese in particular and although Rusia weakened the Chinese never challenged the status-quo and had accepted Rusian primacy in the region for number of reasons which I would like skip.

It all changed after 9/11 which changed the contours in Central Asia and that with effect to U.S. exansion and presence and has born a new reality. Rusia appeared to have some miscalculations on its part thinking U.S. presence wont be long lived and above all it will benifit from it in the face of some of its security challenges i.e. rising Islamis and Taliban etc. And Russia will be somwhat indespsnsible ally and equal partner in other part of the world more so "by right" will be privillaged in the region. But that perception changed within 3 years of U.S. invasion of Afghanistan with ever more expansion in Krghyzistan and Uzbakistan etc. complemented by inhanced political agenda such as spread os Western democracy etc. both in CA and former soveit states like Georgia, such as the color revolution in the later's case. The U.S. also rejected the notion of its primacy and its other aforementioned notions.

Cut long story shot: checked in the region and facing Uncle Sam, with brewing venegeance (I think lol) Russia is left with two choices. The first to attempt to re-assert itself and establish the staus quo by going it alone, which it finds impractical for a number of reasons one of which is the aversion of the Central Asian states again surrendering to its former bear master. Hence it acknowledges itself no longer the hegemon and the region no longer the no-go zone for others is rather metamorphosed into subject of invasions. So rather more ambitiously it is hoping to be the leader of a regional condominium that would serve its security, political and economic interests. So in this renewd strategic trajectory it is hoping that by co-opting the Chinese it will be able to do just that. So China has been more by far more pro-active since post 9/11 and since then have built itself pipeline of natural gas and has deepened trade and commercial relations in the region. Now since 1992 China's trade with the 5 Central Asian states have increased from $465 millions to almost $20 billions (I am sure this figue is right but look it up just incase). That is startling. I think CA states will continuingly look outward beyond Russia, and China is leaping ahead Russia economically and technologically. And more so China doesn't trsut Russia as it gave more precedence to West intially only untill it realised that it needs it. So despite that the two's intersts coincide I guess any further Chinese advancement will be at the cost of Russia.

Excuse any typos and spelling mistakes. I don't know if I answered the question, I might have rambled too.

[ComradePashtun]

Now this TAPI will further loosen its grip and clout, so all in all Russia will be the looser. And by way China is even more ambitious in central Asia because it wants to have alternative land alternative and access other than the malaca and Persian Golf straits which are strategic chokes.

[Toramana]

ComradePashtun, although, presently Turkamanistan is showing more independence of Russian influence among the Central Asian states, there are some conditions which will keep Central Asian states tied to Russia to a degree for foreseeble future. Foremost, one should not ignore Russia's cultural influence in Central Asian states. Second, Central Asian states are still ruled by dictators, who have been communist bosses of their respective regions during the Soveit era and consider cooperation with Russia as a counter to the threat to their rule from the expansion of Western democratic influences into Central Asia. Third, both Russia and Central Asian states consider Islamist fundamentalism a threat to the stability of CA which provides a common rallying point between the two. Fourth, in some Central Asian states e.g., Kazakistan, there are still large number of ethnic Russians inhabiting strategically important regions (e.g., in Kazakistan). Fifth, owing to the size and political and economic clout of China and Russia, it would not be so easy for Central Asian states to ignore their giant neighbours.

In some ways, the Central Asian states are trying to enhance their leverage with the West through politics of cooperation with Russia and China.

Actually, US, China, and Russia, all are trying to edge each others out through the politics of multilateral alliances and agreements. One should not ignore the basic purpose of Shangai Cooperation Orgnizations, etc.

I think US is more wary of Chinese advances in Central Asia than Russian hold over there. And so is true of China, which considers US influence in Central Asia to be a greater threat to Chinese security than the Russian influence there (the nightmare of containment, Ughur problem in Sinkiang, etc.).

[ComradePashtun]

Manana, Toramana. I agree with those points, my personal impression is that U.S. more than anything in its Central Asian policy wants the region to open up. I think their political tools are also at work in the region. As a matter of fact U.S. also doen't have problem dealing with dictators as long as it get what it wants (to no surprise), where as Rusians will even try to keep the dictators on short uncomfortable leash.

I still think Russia will be on the recieving end.