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Erdogan seeks to clip wings of Saudi prince in Khashoggi affair
https://www.ft.com/content/062f88de-...2-7574db66bcd5
Laura Pitel in Ankara yesterday Print this page 22
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been cautious in his public comments on Jamal Khashoggi, but by sanctioning a drip-feed of leaks he has fed a frenzy of gruesome media coverage about the alleged killing of the missing journalist. Claims about a brazen murder in the heart of Istanbul have shocked the world — and repeatedly undermined the alternative narrative put forward by Riyadh and its supporters to protect the kingdom’s rulers. After reports that Saudi Arabia was considering blaming Mr Khashoggi’s death on its deputy head of intelligence, the leaks were replaced on Friday by an official warning from Ankara. Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said: “We have information and evidence in hand . . . on what happened to Khashoggi and who is responsible.” A Turkish official familiar with the strategy said: “The overarching aim is some kind of admission of guilt from the Saudis.” Analysts say the Turkish president’s ultimate goal may be to weaken crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman’s son and the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler. But rather than leading a sole charge that would leave Turkey and its fragile economy exposed, Mr Erdogan has sought to force the US president Donald Trump — Saudi Arabia’s most important western ally — to come onside. The overarching aim is some kind of admission of guilt from the Saudis Turkish official “I think he didn’t want to be out there all alone fighting the Saudis, when he wasn’t sure that’s what the Americans would do,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “By combining leaks with a cautious diplomatic tone, he’s managed to put himself in a rather strong position.” How Mr Erdogan will use the cards in his hands remains unclear. The Turkish leader could seek favours or concessions from Washington and Riyadh in exchange for choosing not to publish hard evidence — particularly a recording that purportedly exists of the moments of Mr Khashoggi’s death and dismemberment. Speaking to journalists in London this week, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu suggested that Turkey could seek to secure financial support from Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s wealthiest nations, to bolster the economy as it stares down the barrel of a looming recession. “The government is in need of a significant amount of cash and we don’t know how much [might be forthcoming] from Saudi Arabia,” he said. There are signs, however, that Mr Erdogan has bolder ambitions of harnessing international outrage towards Saudi Arabia to help engineer a shift in regional power dynamics that would ease the pressure on Turkey and its allies. Ankara and Riyadh have found themselves on opposing sides of upheaval across the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. Mr Erdogan has an ideological affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that the Gulf kingdom sees as one of the biggest threats to Middle East stability. He was strongly opposed to the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi, the former Egyptian president, in a coup that was widely viewed as Saudi-backed. And when Qatar found itself facing a Saudi-led blockade, Turkey sent extra troops to the emirate and began shipping meat and dairy products to fill its empty supermarket shelves. Recommended Richard Haass US must shed its illusions about Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia’s young heir apparent, is seen as the driving force behind Riyadh’s more aggressive regional policies. Now he finds himself accused of ordering the murder of Mr Khashoggi — and on the receiving end of sharp criticism from advisers to the Turkish president. Burhanettin Duran, a think-tank chairman recently appointed to Mr Erdogan’s new foreign policy committee, used an article in the pro-government Daily Sabah — an English-language newspaper aimed at an international audience — to warn that the “greedy” crown prince was “out of his depth”. Writing for the same title, Ilnur Cevik, another presidential adviser, contrasted the “negative attitudes” of Prince Mohammed with the more measured King Salman, whom he said “appreciates the effort” by Turkey to show sensitivity in its handling of the case. Turkey may hope that clipping the wings of Prince Mohammed would have knock-on effects. “Turkey might use the Khashoggi case to encourage more moderate elements in the Saudi leadership — above all a revitalised role for King Salman,” said Bulent Aras, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Sabanci university. “Even some degree of Saudi [retreat] from its current course would be beneficial for Turkey. Regional instability and insecurity is hurting broader Turkish interests”. Going it alone in a head-to-head dispute with a regional hegemon would carry big risks for the Turkish president. So too would publicly diverging from the wishes of Mr Trump just as the strain on US-Turkish relations has begun to ease following the release of Andrew Brunson, a US pastor held for two years. So Ankara has striven to keep up the pressure on Washington. That helps to explain why signals that the US president might be willing to accept the denials of the Saudi king — and his suggestion that “rogue” operatives could be to blame for Mr Khashoggi’s death — were followed by a fresh barrage of leaks to the US media. Ankara has found itself in an unlikely alignment with American newspapers such as the Washington Post, which last year took on Mr Khashoggi as a columnist. Cansu Camlibel, the US correspondent for the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, used her column on Friday to marvel at the strange new state of affairs: “For the first time in a long time, Turkey is not the ‘bad guy’ of the story in Washington.” Additional reporting by Leyla Boulton in London
https://www.ft.com/content/062f88de-...2-7574db66bcd5
Laura Pitel in Ankara yesterday Print this page 22
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been cautious in his public comments on Jamal Khashoggi, but by sanctioning a drip-feed of leaks he has fed a frenzy of gruesome media coverage about the alleged killing of the missing journalist. Claims about a brazen murder in the heart of Istanbul have shocked the world — and repeatedly undermined the alternative narrative put forward by Riyadh and its supporters to protect the kingdom’s rulers. After reports that Saudi Arabia was considering blaming Mr Khashoggi’s death on its deputy head of intelligence, the leaks were replaced on Friday by an official warning from Ankara. Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said: “We have information and evidence in hand . . . on what happened to Khashoggi and who is responsible.” A Turkish official familiar with the strategy said: “The overarching aim is some kind of admission of guilt from the Saudis.” Analysts say the Turkish president’s ultimate goal may be to weaken crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman’s son and the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler. But rather than leading a sole charge that would leave Turkey and its fragile economy exposed, Mr Erdogan has sought to force the US president Donald Trump — Saudi Arabia’s most important western ally — to come onside. The overarching aim is some kind of admission of guilt from the Saudis Turkish official “I think he didn’t want to be out there all alone fighting the Saudis, when he wasn’t sure that’s what the Americans would do,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “By combining leaks with a cautious diplomatic tone, he’s managed to put himself in a rather strong position.” How Mr Erdogan will use the cards in his hands remains unclear. The Turkish leader could seek favours or concessions from Washington and Riyadh in exchange for choosing not to publish hard evidence — particularly a recording that purportedly exists of the moments of Mr Khashoggi’s death and dismemberment. Speaking to journalists in London this week, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu suggested that Turkey could seek to secure financial support from Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s wealthiest nations, to bolster the economy as it stares down the barrel of a looming recession. “The government is in need of a significant amount of cash and we don’t know how much [might be forthcoming] from Saudi Arabia,” he said. There are signs, however, that Mr Erdogan has bolder ambitions of harnessing international outrage towards Saudi Arabia to help engineer a shift in regional power dynamics that would ease the pressure on Turkey and its allies. Ankara and Riyadh have found themselves on opposing sides of upheaval across the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. Mr Erdogan has an ideological affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that the Gulf kingdom sees as one of the biggest threats to Middle East stability. He was strongly opposed to the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi, the former Egyptian president, in a coup that was widely viewed as Saudi-backed. And when Qatar found itself facing a Saudi-led blockade, Turkey sent extra troops to the emirate and began shipping meat and dairy products to fill its empty supermarket shelves. Recommended Richard Haass US must shed its illusions about Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia’s young heir apparent, is seen as the driving force behind Riyadh’s more aggressive regional policies. Now he finds himself accused of ordering the murder of Mr Khashoggi — and on the receiving end of sharp criticism from advisers to the Turkish president. Burhanettin Duran, a think-tank chairman recently appointed to Mr Erdogan’s new foreign policy committee, used an article in the pro-government Daily Sabah — an English-language newspaper aimed at an international audience — to warn that the “greedy” crown prince was “out of his depth”. Writing for the same title, Ilnur Cevik, another presidential adviser, contrasted the “negative attitudes” of Prince Mohammed with the more measured King Salman, whom he said “appreciates the effort” by Turkey to show sensitivity in its handling of the case. Turkey may hope that clipping the wings of Prince Mohammed would have knock-on effects. “Turkey might use the Khashoggi case to encourage more moderate elements in the Saudi leadership — above all a revitalised role for King Salman,” said Bulent Aras, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Sabanci university. “Even some degree of Saudi [retreat] from its current course would be beneficial for Turkey. Regional instability and insecurity is hurting broader Turkish interests”. Going it alone in a head-to-head dispute with a regional hegemon would carry big risks for the Turkish president. So too would publicly diverging from the wishes of Mr Trump just as the strain on US-Turkish relations has begun to ease following the release of Andrew Brunson, a US pastor held for two years. So Ankara has striven to keep up the pressure on Washington. That helps to explain why signals that the US president might be willing to accept the denials of the Saudi king — and his suggestion that “rogue” operatives could be to blame for Mr Khashoggi’s death — were followed by a fresh barrage of leaks to the US media. Ankara has found itself in an unlikely alignment with American newspapers such as the Washington Post, which last year took on Mr Khashoggi as a columnist. Cansu Camlibel, the US correspondent for the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, used her column on Friday to marvel at the strange new state of affairs: “For the first time in a long time, Turkey is not the ‘bad guy’ of the story in Washington.” Additional reporting by Leyla Boulton in London
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