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Taliban fighters, whom US-led forces spent billions of dollars trying to defeat, are now openly active in 70% of Afghanistan, a BBC study has found.
Months of research across the country shows that the Taliban now control or threaten much more territory than when foreign combat troops left in 2014.
The Afghan government played down the report, saying it controls most areas.
But recent attacks claimed by Taliban and Islamic State group militants have killed scores in Kabul and elsewhere.
Afghan officials and US President Donald Trump have responded by ruling out any talks with the Taliban. Last year Mr Trump announced the US military would stay in the country indefinitely.
The BBC research also suggests that IS is more active in Afghanistan than ever before, although it remains far less powerful than the Taliban.
How much territory do the Taliban control?
The BBC study shows the Taliban are now in full control of 14 districts (that's 4% of the country) and have an active and open physical presence in a further 263 (66%), significantly higher than previous estimates of Taliban strength.
About 15 million people - half the population - are living in areas that are either controlled by the Taliban or where the Taliban are openly present and regularly mount attacks.
"When I leave home, I'm uncertain whether I will come back alive," said one man, Sardar, in Shindand, a western district that suffers weekly attacks. "Explosions, terror and the Taliban are part of our daily life."
The extent to which the Taliban have pushed beyond their traditional southern stronghold into eastern, western and northern parts of the country is clearly visible from the BBC study.
Areas that have fallen to the Taliban since 2014 include places in Helmand province like Sangin, Musa Qala and Nad-e Ali, which foreign forces fought and died to bring under government control after US-led troops had driven the Taliban from power in 2001. More than 450 British troops died in Helmand between 2001 and 2014.
In the areas defined as having an active and open Taliban presence, the militants conduct frequent attacks against Afghan government positions. These range from large organised group strikes on military bases to sporadic single attacks and ambushes against military convoys and police checkpoints.
Media captionThe BBC gained rare access to see life under the Taliban in 2017 Image caption The police headquarters in Sangin bears the name of the UK regiment that was based in the area Attacks registered during the research period happened with varying degrees of frequency - from once in three months (low Taliban presence) to twice a week (high Taliban presence).
For the purposes of the investigation, districts controlled or held by the government are defined as having sitting representation from Kabul in the form of a district chief, police chief and courts.
During the research period, the BBC study found 122 districts (just over 30% of the country) did not have an open Taliban presence. These areas are ranked as under government control, but that does not mean they were free of violence.
Kabul and other major cities, for example, suffered major attacks - launched from adjacent areas, or by sleeper cells - during the research period, as well as before and after.
What is the human cost of militant violence?
Amruddin, who runs a local transport company, lives close to the front line in Baharak district in northern Badakhshan province, where the BBC monitored violence suggesting a medium Taliban presence.
"We live with constant fear. Whenever the government side starts fighting with the Taliban, we're caught in the crossfire, bringing life to a standstill. It's quiet at the moment but the Taliban are still here."
In Taliban-controlled Sangin, father of eight Mohammad Reza, described life as "better" under the militants because there was peace.
"It only got violent when the government forces arrived."
Will I make it back home today?
Karim Haidari, BBC Afghan, Kabul
I haven't been sleeping well this week. It happens every time another tragedy hits our city. "You look old, Dad," says my seven-year-old bouncing into my bedroom to remind me it's his birthday. As if I would forget. I laugh and get up.
As I leave the house I pause to look back at my family having breakfast. Will I make it back home today? Will this be the last time I see them? We all think like this in Kabul now.
My BBC colleagues are waiting in the car. We swap news about the latest attack. One of them, a mother of two young children, starts sobbing. "Sometimes I just wish I could blow myself up to end all this. But I don't want to hurt anyone else."
We can get you counselling if it would help, I say. But she's not listening. The driver switches on the radio, to try to change the mood. A pop song comes on with nonsensical lyrics. It's just another day in Kabul. Just another day of hoping we'll all stay alive.
"People have no choice but to leave their homes, farms and orchards or stay and live with Taliban rule," Mahgul, a teacher from a northern district in Kabul province, told the BBC.
She said her family fled their village in October. They went to seek refuge in the government-controlled district centre, only for her brother to be killed there two days later by a suicide bomber.
Image copyright EPA Image caption Cleaning up in Kabul - the capital has been hit by a wave of attacks in recent weeks To the west of the capital, Jamila, a mother of five, said: "Two Taliban rockets landed in our back garden last month. We live just a few hundred metres from the district chief office. It's not safe here."
During the investigation, evidence of a hike in Taliban taxation across the country was also uncovered. In districts where they are openly present, the militants force farmers, local businesses and even commercial goods convoys to pay them tax while still leaving it to the government to foot the bill for basic services such as schools and hospitals.
"They are charging people for the electricity that we supply!" one chief of a southern district reported.
The BBC's research has been reviewed by the Kabul-based Afghanistan Analysts Network, which has been reporting on Afghanistan since 2009.
Co-Director Kate Clark said: "Such a well-researched investigation into the Afghan war is rare and very welcome. The findings are shocking, but unfortunately not surprising - they ring true as an accurate mapping of the extent of the conflict.
"But it is disturbing to realise that each bit of orange shading on the map translates into lives lost and damaged."
Who are the Taliban?
Months of research across the country shows that the Taliban now control or threaten much more territory than when foreign combat troops left in 2014.
The Afghan government played down the report, saying it controls most areas.
But recent attacks claimed by Taliban and Islamic State group militants have killed scores in Kabul and elsewhere.
Afghan officials and US President Donald Trump have responded by ruling out any talks with the Taliban. Last year Mr Trump announced the US military would stay in the country indefinitely.
The BBC research also suggests that IS is more active in Afghanistan than ever before, although it remains far less powerful than the Taliban.
How much territory do the Taliban control?
The BBC study shows the Taliban are now in full control of 14 districts (that's 4% of the country) and have an active and open physical presence in a further 263 (66%), significantly higher than previous estimates of Taliban strength.
About 15 million people - half the population - are living in areas that are either controlled by the Taliban or where the Taliban are openly present and regularly mount attacks.
"When I leave home, I'm uncertain whether I will come back alive," said one man, Sardar, in Shindand, a western district that suffers weekly attacks. "Explosions, terror and the Taliban are part of our daily life."
The extent to which the Taliban have pushed beyond their traditional southern stronghold into eastern, western and northern parts of the country is clearly visible from the BBC study.
Areas that have fallen to the Taliban since 2014 include places in Helmand province like Sangin, Musa Qala and Nad-e Ali, which foreign forces fought and died to bring under government control after US-led troops had driven the Taliban from power in 2001. More than 450 British troops died in Helmand between 2001 and 2014.
In the areas defined as having an active and open Taliban presence, the militants conduct frequent attacks against Afghan government positions. These range from large organised group strikes on military bases to sporadic single attacks and ambushes against military convoys and police checkpoints.
Media captionThe BBC gained rare access to see life under the Taliban in 2017 Image caption The police headquarters in Sangin bears the name of the UK regiment that was based in the area Attacks registered during the research period happened with varying degrees of frequency - from once in three months (low Taliban presence) to twice a week (high Taliban presence).
For the purposes of the investigation, districts controlled or held by the government are defined as having sitting representation from Kabul in the form of a district chief, police chief and courts.
- Can Afghan military turn the tide in Taliban fight?
- Four days behind the Taliban front line
- Who are the Taliban?
During the research period, the BBC study found 122 districts (just over 30% of the country) did not have an open Taliban presence. These areas are ranked as under government control, but that does not mean they were free of violence.
Kabul and other major cities, for example, suffered major attacks - launched from adjacent areas, or by sleeper cells - during the research period, as well as before and after.
What is the human cost of militant violence?
Amruddin, who runs a local transport company, lives close to the front line in Baharak district in northern Badakhshan province, where the BBC monitored violence suggesting a medium Taliban presence.
"We live with constant fear. Whenever the government side starts fighting with the Taliban, we're caught in the crossfire, bringing life to a standstill. It's quiet at the moment but the Taliban are still here."
In Taliban-controlled Sangin, father of eight Mohammad Reza, described life as "better" under the militants because there was peace.
"It only got violent when the government forces arrived."
Will I make it back home today?
Karim Haidari, BBC Afghan, Kabul
I haven't been sleeping well this week. It happens every time another tragedy hits our city. "You look old, Dad," says my seven-year-old bouncing into my bedroom to remind me it's his birthday. As if I would forget. I laugh and get up.
As I leave the house I pause to look back at my family having breakfast. Will I make it back home today? Will this be the last time I see them? We all think like this in Kabul now.
My BBC colleagues are waiting in the car. We swap news about the latest attack. One of them, a mother of two young children, starts sobbing. "Sometimes I just wish I could blow myself up to end all this. But I don't want to hurt anyone else."
We can get you counselling if it would help, I say. But she's not listening. The driver switches on the radio, to try to change the mood. A pop song comes on with nonsensical lyrics. It's just another day in Kabul. Just another day of hoping we'll all stay alive.
"People have no choice but to leave their homes, farms and orchards or stay and live with Taliban rule," Mahgul, a teacher from a northern district in Kabul province, told the BBC.
She said her family fled their village in October. They went to seek refuge in the government-controlled district centre, only for her brother to be killed there two days later by a suicide bomber.
Image copyright EPA Image caption Cleaning up in Kabul - the capital has been hit by a wave of attacks in recent weeks To the west of the capital, Jamila, a mother of five, said: "Two Taliban rockets landed in our back garden last month. We live just a few hundred metres from the district chief office. It's not safe here."
During the investigation, evidence of a hike in Taliban taxation across the country was also uncovered. In districts where they are openly present, the militants force farmers, local businesses and even commercial goods convoys to pay them tax while still leaving it to the government to foot the bill for basic services such as schools and hospitals.
"They are charging people for the electricity that we supply!" one chief of a southern district reported.
The BBC's research has been reviewed by the Kabul-based Afghanistan Analysts Network, which has been reporting on Afghanistan since 2009.
Co-Director Kate Clark said: "Such a well-researched investigation into the Afghan war is rare and very welcome. The findings are shocking, but unfortunately not surprising - they ring true as an accurate mapping of the extent of the conflict.
"But it is disturbing to realise that each bit of orange shading on the map translates into lives lost and damaged."
Who are the Taliban?
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