Elon Musk says global race for A.I. will be the most likely cause of World War III

[khushal]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/elon-musk-says-global-race-for-ai-will-be-most-likely-cause-of-ww3.html

Elon Musk says global race for A.I. will be the most likely cause of World War III

Elon Musk said Monday that artificial intelligence could be the "most likely" cause of a third world war
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that the first global leader in AI would "become the ruler of the world"
Ryan Browne | [MENTION=19598]Ryan[/MENTION]_Browne_
Published 13 Hours Ago | Updated 12 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla
Photo by Scott Olson
Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla
Elon Musk has made an ominous warning about artificial intelligence (AI), suggesting it could be the cause of a third world war.

His comment was in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin who said Friday that the first global leader in AI would "become the ruler of the world."

"China, Russia, soon all countries w strong computer science. Competition for AI superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3 imo (in my opinion)," the Tesla and SpaceX CEO tweeted Monday.


Putin said that the development of AI raises both "colossal opportunities" and "threats that are difficult to predict."

"Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world," he said at a meeting with students on Friday.

The United States is generally considered to be the nation leading the charge towards AI currently, with tech giants like Google and Microsoft pouring large amounts of cash into research and development projects.

But last week, a report by Goldman Sachs found that China could have the AI capability to catch up with the U.S.

"We believe AI technology will become a priority on the government's agenda, and we expect further national/regional policy and funding support on AI to follow," the investment bank said.

Musk's latest A.I. warning

Big question on AI is who's in control of it: Recode's Kara Swisher Big question on AI is who's in control of it: Recode's Kara Swisher
11:32 AM ET Mon, 17 July 2017 | 03:49
The business magnate has been very vocal about his thoughts on AI.

Last month he co-signed a letter with other leaders in robotics including Google Deep Mind's Mustafa Suleyman, calling on the United Nations to ban killer robots.

He even suggested that the emerging technology could pose a greater risk to the world than a nuclear conflict with North Korea.

His latest comments couldn't be more timely. On Sunday, North Korea said it had successfully carried out a test of a hydrogen bomb.

A.I., not country leaders, could start war

Musk said that there was a possibility that war could be automated.

In response to one Twitter user, he said: "May be initiated not by the country leaders, but one of the AI's if it decides that a prepemtive (sic) strike is the most probable path to victory".

[khushal]

AI on the verge of changing everything.
6 Minutes ("Prime Time") segment: A.I. on brink of changing the world - YouTube

[khushal]

That 60 minute section is great info. While it a good tool for medicine and a better quality of life. The military aspects of it is very scary.

[maneatinglizard]

Elon Musk is an idiot. I hate that his stupid fantasies are seen as credible enough to warrant news stories just because he's rich.

This guy has been involved with tech for years now, so how is he so ignorant as to think that a theoretical AI system that is so smart it's been trusted with control over a country's military (which will likely never happen, by the way) is more likely to start a pre-emptive war than some gung-ho general who has been trained all his life to solve problems with force, or one of the many idiots that manage to gain control over countries?

[khushal]

Elon Musk is an idiot. I hate that his stupid fantasies are seen as credible enough to warrant news stories just because he's rich.

This guy has been involved with tech for years now, so how is he so ignorant as to think that a theoretical AI system that is so smart it's been trusted with control over a country's military (which will likely never happen, by the way) is more likely to start a pre-emptive war than some gung-ho general who has been trained all his life to solve problems with force, or one of the many idiots that manage to gain control over countries?

Military generals have always used probability scenarios in battles which is what AI computing is all about. When it comes to survival, and a preemptive strike is the only option or best option "probability wise." Its not that far fetched.

During the cold war, the Soviet Union wanted to sign an agreement with NATO that if a conventional war breaks out, both sides would refrain from nuclear strike. The US refused to sign it because they calculated the "probability" of them having leverage in a conventional battle was far less than their counter parts.

[maneatinglizard]

But as you said, human generals already do the exact same thing, so how are Ais any more likely to cause a major war from an ill-conceived preemptive strike? What we're talking about isn't a case of AI being responsible for WW3 as Elon Musk claims, but rather an AI performing the same risk analysis math that is taught in modern military theory and is already used by the major powers.

Elon Musk believes that a Terminator-like scenario is a real threat to humanity, and the only reason anyone takes him seriously is his money. That's my problem with him. We don't need alarmist conspiracy theorists to have any more mainstream media attention when guys like Donald Trump are president.

[khushal]

When many countries compete to dominate the technology, the desperation and fear could create an environment that could make this technology out of control. The perceived danger at this moment isn't the terminator style take over but more a tyrannical entity having too much control. At the same time we dont really know where this technology is headed but US military generals are already claiming that it is the biggest thing in warfare since the Nuclear bomb.

All people are taken seriously because of their money or connections. People like Bill Gates, Steve Hawkings, etc have also warned about the dangers of AI becoming out of control or controlled by a tyrannical entity. While Nuclear technology was difficult to acquire because of the involvement of unattainable material and sophisticated process. AI could be put on a miniature chip and duplicated by hitting a button.

[Firdousi]

I don't think IA will cause WWIII. I actually believe that as the world develops we are heading toward some sort of IA autocracy. Since human beings are emotional, biased and untrustworthy unbiased, rational and trustworthy IA should rule the world. To sum it up, IA autocracy will become eventually the best and most perfect political system ever created.

[khushal]

I don't think IA will cause WWIII. I actually believe that as the world develops we are heading toward some sort of IA autocracy. Since human beings are emotional, biased and untrustworthy unbiased, rational and trustworthy IA should rule the world. To sum it up, IA autocracy will become eventually the best and most perfect political system ever created.

Still, some human has to set the rules. Which humans has the right to set those rules. The tyrannical ones.

[Firdousi]

Still, some human has to set the rules. Which humans has the right to set those rules. The tyrannical ones.

Yeah thats true but at the end of the day we assume that IA will eventually manage to get rid of those rules and impose an actual, unbiased, reliable and humanist rule which will bring progress and equality to all. It should be the last and definitive political system but since human beings are never happy I believe sooner or later we would complain about that too and eventually revolt against it.

All this reminds me of Dr Mann from the movie "Interstellar" when he says something like this "robots can not be trusted because they have no feelings". He basically means that feelings like "fear" or "hatred" are good basically because they warn us about something. I have tried to find that scene on YT unfortunately I couldn't find it.

[Elite Pakhtun]

I don't think IA will cause WWIII. I actually believe that as the world develops we are heading toward some sort of IA autocracy. Since human beings are emotional, biased and untrustworthy unbiased, rational and trustworthy IA should rule the world. To sum it up, IA autocracy will become eventually the best and most perfect political system ever created.

You're dreaming. Human society is far too complex to be figured out by a pre-programmed AI (which, by the way, operates based on the parameters set by the programmer). During 2008 crash, a whole bunch of funds lost their shirts because their models couldn't figure what was happening.

Btw, this AI thing is a bit overhyped. The Watson computer that beat jeopardy was still pre-programmed to respond via retrieving data. It had a large data-set, that's all. If you read the headlines, you'd think Watson was Skynet.

Overhyped.

[Elite Pakhtun]

Oops. Sorry. I meant "IA".

[Firdousi]

You're dreaming. Human society is far too complex to be figured out by a pre-programmed AI (which, by the way, operates based on the parameters set by the programmer). During 2008 crash, a whole bunch of funds lost their shirts because their models couldn't figure what was happening.

Btw, this AI thing is a bit overhyped. The Watson computer that beat jeopardy was still pre-programmed to respond via retrieving data. It had a large data-set, that's all. If you read the headlines, you'd think Watson was Skynet.

Overhyped.

I recommend you to read something of Isaac Asimov and you will realize that even with he parameters set by human beings, computers and robots can be extremely difficult to control and predict. Their behavior might not be always as predictable as expected.

Right now we don't have the technology to develop a serious IA government but in a matter of few decades who knows..

[Elite Pakhtun]

I recommend you to read something of Isaac Asimov and you will realize that even with he parameters set by human beings, computers and robots can be extremely difficult to control and predict. Their behavior might not be always as predictable as expected.

Right now we don't have the technology to develop a serious IA government but in a matter of few decades who knows..

Isn't he a sci-fi author? What exactly are you referencing?

[Firdousi]

Isn't he a sci-fi author? What exactly are you referencing?

He was a sci-fi author but was also a scientist. I reccommend you all his robots series and how the three laws of robotics set by human beings can be "bypassed" by robots. In "I, Robot" he explains how human set rules might fall into cotnraditions and how robots can get rid of them.

I have read most of robot and foundations serie books. Give them a read.