What does a stable Iran mean for Afghanistan?

[Bengal_Tiger]

What does a stable Iran mean for Afghanistan?

It may be premature to celebrate. Maybe in the future there may be problems with the recent agreement which itself is not an agreement per se but a framework on how the actual agreement should be organized.

However let us say that Iran does indeed emerge intact from the crisis with America and "normalizes" in relative terms trading relations with America and the rest of the world what is the impact for Afghanistan?


- A wealthier Iran means an Iran with more money to back Farsiphone i.e. Farsi-speaking (Farsi Zaban) citizens of Afghanistan just reinforcing Dari/Farsi's pre-eminent position there as the language of administration.

- More money to sponsor groups in Afghanistan e.g. Hazaras, Tajiks others.


Iran is already arguably in terms of scientific expertise the most advanced country in the Muslim world and this is under sanctions. With sanctions being lifted they can do far more making them a very powerful country.



Iran's space programme.

Just a simple example, a country like Saudi Arabia is far richer than Iran but it does managed to create anything like Press TV, a propaganda channel just like CNN, BBC, Al-Jazeera all are, but still an example of Iranian achievement.

- Saudi has nothing like Press TV, i.e. a tool to influence the rest of the world in the language of the world, English. Nor does Turkey though Turkey is better than Saudi Arabia as it does have Turkish channels in different languages.



Press TV biased Iranian propaganda channel just like equally biased American and British propaganda channels, CNN, Fox, CBS, NBC and the BBC, and also with global projection in disseminating Iranian version of the "news".


Also a wealthier Iran means a more powerful and stronger Iran i.e. the same country that helped the northern alliance to topple the Pakistani-backed Taliban.

Pakistan has long considered Afghanistan as its "backyard" in where it's influence must be jealously protected from other external powers.

A more powerful Iran which is a far more developed and advanced society than Pakistan (Iranians look down on Pakistan as a backwards third world Indic nation they have little in common with and though geographically next door they regard it as a far away country in the same way Australians regard neighbouring Indonesia as part of another region completely) is also one which is clearly able to take Afghanistan out of the Pakistani orbit or counter Pakistani influence in Afghanistan.

What do other members think?

[MENTION=17582]Al-Afghani[/MENTION]
[MENTION=1201]Toramana[/MENTION]
[MENTION=1444]Azmal[/MENTION]





*My apologies if I offend anyone by displaying this map, I have no idea how accurate it is in terms of showing the Farsi/Dari speaking areas of Afghanistan.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Indigenous Iranian made satellites produced in 2010.


I think Iran is the first country in the Muslim world to make its own satellites.



Iranian space facility.

[HalloIsBack]

stable iran =>weak afghanistan
stable pakistan=>weak afghanistan

the problem i see is the riligious government in iran which need to be removed
most hate towards afghanistan and support of warlords come from their side!

[Al-Afghani]

Iran's main area of interest is in the Arab world, and Afghanistan has always been afterthought. The nuclear deal will improve their economy in the long run, but I do not think a strategic shift in the balance of power in Afghanistan.

[Khostai]

Iran had more influence when it was not an Islamic Republic. You forget that Iran is shia and not sunni, how large the cultural similarities may be the shia ideology will be a factor that will remind Afghans not to trust Iran completly, the only group that will support Iran almost 100% will be Hazara, but they are looked down up on by Iranians becuase average Iranian is extremly racist towards non-Arian looking people.....

So a strong Iran would try to influence Afghanistan, but Afghans of today are not Afghans of yesterday, some will use Iranian money and do what ever they want, like for example now, Afghanistan goverment aproved the Saudi bombings in Yemen and supports it. So only time will show us how it will go.

[Bengal_Tiger]

The Afghan national govt is not a major global or regional power and is not in any position to influence what is going on in Iran and its nuclear negotiations but it has to:

1. Monitor the situation in its western neighbour.

2. Make the appropriate plans beforehand.

3. Then try to execute them, modify them if necessary and adapt to changing dynamics.



Afghanistan is a country with 3 major Muslim states involved in it to varying degrees, Pakistan foremost but then also Turkey and Iran.

- Pakistan supported the Taliban and still do.

- Iran and Turkey support Farsi-speakers and Turkic speakers i.e. the old national alliance and thus the current Kabul government.

More than any other Muslim country besides Pakistan (whose influence I cannot asses) Turkey has more influence in Afghanistan in many things in terms of:

- Development & construction.
- Schools.
- Training the army and police.


If Iran becomes a very vibrant economy then Afghanistan can try and benefit from that economically by increasing trade and attracting more tourists.

They could also perhaps try to encourage Iranian companies in to JVs or projects with TOT.

JV = Joint Venture
TOT = Transfer of Technology (e.g. a foreign company starts a car plant in a country but also teaches the local engineers how to make cars or at least certain car parts).

Though I am not a fan of Iran by any means, they do have a strong army and trained Lebanese militia men to take on Israel. So for example in addition to Afghan military personnel studying in India and Turkey some could go to Iran and study.

The combined knowledge and expertise acquired by the Afghan officer corps from learning from Indians, Iranians and Turks would make a stronger, wiser army.


Iranian-backing acts as a counter to Pakistan's support of the Taliban.

Ghani, Abdullah and Dostum can use Iran & Turkey to strengthen the Kabul government against the rise of the anti-Shia, anti-Uzbek Taliban.

Ghani needs to try and get Iran to use Afghanistan as the main transit route for Iranian goods to access the biggest market in the world and the biggest economy in the world (by PPP) China.

Pakistan is too unreliable.



Also everybody needs to be aware that the so-called "Ayatollahs" (actually the majority of the Ayatollahs in Iran oppose the current clerical system) may not be in power for ever.

If a more secular Persian nationalist government comes in power which is totally disinterested in Shiasm but in Pan-Iranism it may have a major impact on the Tajik-Pashtun cultural/linguistic rivalry in Afghanistan.

Many Pashtuns in Afghanistan e.g. some of the Mahmudzais only speak Farsi/Dari and an Iran which is a regional superpower might just accelerate that process.



Pro-Iranian Shia Hazara fighters in the 1990s in Afghanistan.

In terms of the Iran-Turkey struggle, Turkey it seems is winning in many ways including with the Hazara community which it views as a Turanic group and thus ethnic cousins.

The Hazaras are focusing on education and social advancement.

They are more orientated to Turkey and unless I am wrong to some Turkish schools in Afghanistan.

If Afghans can cleverly play both Iran and Turkey off to compete with each other to contribute positively to Afghanistan and win their support then Afghanistan will benefit.


However there is no guarantee that this current set of negotiations will actually work, and even if it does result in a deal how long that will succeed for, but if it does Afghans need to be monitoring Iran.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Billions up for grabs if nuclear deal opens Iran economy



An Iranian flag flutters in front of the United Nations headquarters in Vienna


Iranian investment banker Ramin Rabii says he shouted in joy when he learned that Tehran and world powers had reached a deal which promises to lift economic sanctions on Iran. Then he called colleagues to discuss the business implications.

Rabii, managing director of Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based investment firm with about $200 million of assets under management, has been grappling for years with the results of the sanctions: unstable growth, high inflation, international banking restrictions and hard currency shortages.

The agreement on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme, reached on Thursday, will - if confirmed in a final deal by a June 30 deadline - begin to ease those crippling problems for Turquoise and thousands of other Iranian firms.

“We’ve been preparing for this moment for 10 years,” Rabii said by telephone, adding that in the months leading up to the deal Turquoise was in touch with hundreds of potential foreign investors about opportunities for them if sanctions were lifted.

He said the company now planned to develop its asset management and brokerage businesses, and would hold roadshows for investors in Europe and possibly Dubai.

Frozen out of the international banking system, its foreign trade slashed by the sanctions, Iran looks likely to become the biggest country to rejoin the global economy since post-Communist eastern Europe in the early 1990s.

The resulting boom could create tens of billions of dollars worth of business for both local and foreign companies and shift the economic balance in the Gulf, which has so far been heavily weighted towards the rich Gulf Arab oil exporting countries.

“Precautionary talks have already started between Iran and some big Western investors” in areas such as oil and autos, said Iranian-born economist Mehrdad Emadi of London’s Betamatrix consultancy. “Now there will be accelerating momentum.”

He predicted annual growth of Iran’s $420bn economy would rise by as much as 2 percentage points to over 5% in the year after a final nuclear deal. It could accelerate further to 7 or 8% in the following 18 months - matching the growth of Asia’s “tiger economies” during their boom years.

Iran’s trade with the European Union, which totalled 7.6bn euros ($8.3bn) last year, could balloon 400% by mid-2018, Emadi said.

Banking sanctions

the complex web of financial, shipping, energy and technology sanctions woven by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations is expected to take years to remove, even if a final nuclear agreement is reached and implemented smoothly.

As a result Iran’s oil exports, cut by the sanctions to about 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.5 million bpd in 2012, may not start rebounding before 2016.

But the single most damaging sanctions measure, the US Treasury’s use of Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act to identify Iran as a money laundering area, could be lifted quickly by the Obama administration, analysts believe.

This would have a big impact on trade and investment by letting foreign banks deal with Iran without fear of being targeted by US officials. Iran could be re-admitted to the SWIFT global payments system, from which it was expelled in 2012, within three months of a final nuclear deal, Emadi said.

Rabii said the boost to Iranian production from easier trade would quickly spur the economy, even if big foreign investment deals took longer to arrange.

“Iranian industry is currently operating at about 60 to 70% capacity. Thirty percent is idle - that’s because of the sanctions. Getting this working again is the low-hanging fruit of lifting the sanctions.”

The economic benefits would extend across the Gulf, particularly to Dubai, which is a traditional hub for business with Iran and has a large Iranian community.

The sanctions slashed Dubai’s trade with Iran by more than a third; the emirate could now become a jumping-off point for foreign companies going back into Iran.

Airlines and logistics firms around the region also stand to profit. Tarek Sultan, chief executive of Kuwait-listed logistics giant Agility, said Iran was potentially attractive because its isolation had encouraged it to develop indigenous expertise that could allow it to leapfrog other economies.

“When the international situation is resolved and restrictions are lifted, we’ll be among the first ones in there,” Sultan told Reuters late last year.

Other parts of the Gulf economy may at least temporarily be hurt by the rise of Iran. Gulf Arab stock markets are reforming themselves to attract foreign capital; Saudi Arabia plans to open its bourse to direct foreign investment within months. These markets will now have a major rival for funds in Tehran.

Any increase in Iranian oil sales could come at the expense of Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, which has lifted its output near 10 million bpd. The kingdom already faces a record budget deficit this year because of low oil prices.

- See more at: http://www.dhakatribune.com/business....cuopCGhP.dpuf

- DhakaTribune

http://www.dhakatribune.com/

1. Iran's economy is around the 27th biggest in the world, including being bigger than

- Malaysia

- South Africa

- Denmark

- New Zealand

They're no.7 in Asia, after China, Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

If sanctions come over within a decade or two they will easily become a $ trillion economy.

A major economy globally and a super-power in central/south west Asian terms.

Afghanistan is next door so it will definitely have a major impact on Afghanistan but the Afghans need to make sure that they harness the Iranian wave to their advantage.

[Black Pakistani]

One thing I've never understood is how come the Iranian government is extremely religious Shia but all of the Iranians I've met (I've met a lot) were not religious at all.

The only time I've seen an Iranian woman wearing a veil (the black ninja one) was when I saw a female representative of the Iranian government in Pakistan.
None of the other Iranian women I've met even covered their hair.

[Khostai]

One thing I've never understood is how come the Iranian government is extremely religious Shia but all of the Iranians I've met (I've met a lot) were not religious at all.

The only time I've seen an Iranian woman wearing a veil (the black ninja one) was when I saw a female representative of the Iranian government in Pakistan.
None of the other Iranian women I've met even covered their hair.

When you force people in to shariah you will get what the situation is with Iranina. I know a lot of people during the taliban who were fed up with Shariah laws and every time when they got a chance not to pray they would take it. They became more and more distand from relligion.

[HalloIsBack]

When you force people in to shariah you will get what the situation is with Iranina. I know a lot of people during the taliban who were fed up with Shariah laws and every time when they got a chance not to pray they would take it. They became more and more distand from relligion.

it's like sugar
caj with sugar is awesome but to much sugar and the caj doesnt taste anymore

[Bengal_Tiger]

Ghani Urges Iran's Private Sector To Invest in Afghanistan

Monday, 20 April 2015 16:07
Last Updated on Monday, 20 April 2015 19:34
Written by TOLOnews.com



Afghan President Ashraf Ghani – who is on a two-day official visit to Iran - on Monday urged Iran's private sector to invest in Afghanistan.

Speaking at an Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) meeting, Ghani spoke of the high unemployment in the country and said Afghanistan needs Iranian investor's help, Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

He said that Afghanistan welcomes presence of Iranian investors in all fields including agriculture, mining, banking and transit.

Iran is one of the most important donors to Afghanistan, which has kept its promises to help the reconstruction of the war-ravaged country. Iran has built roads, power transmission lines, border stations and other infrastructure projects.

Ghani meets with Ayatollah Khamenei

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, stressed on Sunday the need for determination to boost cooperation and rapport between Iran and Afghanistan at a meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. He also referred to the vast cultural and historic ties and commonalities the two countries share.

Ghani and his high-level delegation arrived in Tehran on an official two-day state visit early Sunday. The president met with Ayatollah Khamenei later in the day.

Ayatollah Khamenei said in a statement issued by his office on Monday that scholars and literary figures in Afghanistan make a very significant contribution to the promotion of Islamic teachings and the Persian language.

He said: "In addition to its rich human and cultural resources, Afghanistan also enjoys abundant natural resources. These potentialities and commonalities should all serve to upgrade cooperation between the two countries."

Ayatollah Khamenei stressed the need for determination to boost cooperation and rapport between Iran and Afghanistan. He said: "Of course, the Americans and some countries in the region are unaware of the potentialities of Afghanistan and do not favor rapport and cooperation between the two countries either, but Iran regards the security and progress of its neighbor, Afghanistan, as its own security and progress."

He said: "Issues between the two countries, including immigrants, water, transportation and security are all resolvable and everyone should deal with and settle these issues seriously and within the framework of a timeframe."

Regarding the necessity of the resolution of the key issue of immigrants, Ayatollah Khamenei said hundreds of thousands of Afghan immigrants are studying in Iran at different levels. "The Afghan people are very talented and smart and this talent should be used correctly in acquiring knowledge because the educated Afghans are needed for the reconstruction of your country."

The Supreme Leader said Tehran is also expressed his hope that the Afghan nation and government would witness more success day-by-day.

In the meeting also attended by President Hassan Rouhani, Ghani expressed content with his visit to Tehran.

He said: "Our objective is [to see] Afghanistan become a communications hub in the region and regain its former status as the linking intersection in the region."

Noting that Iran and Afghanistan face similar threats and common opportunities, the Afghan president said: "Our political will is based on expanding bilateral ties and we have to make efforts to boost common and positive points between the two countries."

He said that the Afghan government hopes to turn domestic conflicts and unrest into opportunities for cooperation and referred to some challenges like the issue of insurgents, narcotics, immigrants and common border waters.

"The issues between the two countries should be resolved based on the political will of both governments and based on a timeframe set during this visit," he said.

Ashraf Ghani said Iran is suffers the most through drug trafficking, adding: "None of our neighbors has been as serious as Iran with regard to the threat of narcotics and no country has fought it like Iran, and we are ready to combat this scourge with the help of Iran.

The Afghan president pointed to the expansion of bilateral ties between the two countries in transportation and investment as well as cultural and economic cooperation, and addressing the Supreme Leader, said: "Under your wise leadership, Iran has stabilized its historic identity and we hope that under the aegis of this wise leadership, we will witness closer cooperation between the two countries."

http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/19149-ghani-urges-irans-private-sector-to-invest-in-afghanistan

I am just imagining Ghani meeting Rouhani.

"Khoobi? Khoobam"

lol

[Bengal_Tiger]

Afghanistan, Iran sign two important bilateral accords; pledge to bolster bilateral ties



Salahuddin Rabbani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and his Iranian counter Mohammad Jawad Zarif signing the bilateral agreement in Tehran on Sunday

BY ZARIZA CORRESPONDENT PUBLISHED 2015-04-21 | 15:15:00 100 Print |


During President Ashraf Ghani’s just-concluded two-day visit to Iran, the two countries signed two important bilateral cooperation agreements.

According to a statement issued by the presidential palace, Afghanistan and Iran signed two important agreements on Sunday to increase cooperation between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Ministries Higher Education of the two countries respectively.

The agreements were signed by Salauddin Rabbani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad JawadZarif in Tehran on Sunday.

After the agreements were signed, President Ghani and President Rouhani addressed a joint press conference.

During the press conference, President Ghani said Afghanistan and Iran share historicties and emphasized the importance of resolving all issues between the two countries.

Stressing on the need for regional cooperation in the fight against terrorism, President Ghani said the people of Afghanistan are determined to fight terrorism

President Ghani said the two governments should use the opportunities available to facilitate regional integration, peace and stability.

Stressing on the need for regional cooperation in the fight against terrorism, President Ghani said the people of Afghanistan are determined to fight terrorism, and Afghanistan willbe the graveyard for terrorist groups like Islamic State and Taliban.

President Ghani said Islam is a religion of mercy and compassion, and such mindless acts of violence cannot be justified or condoned.

President Ghani described Iran’s cooperation in establishing transit system as vital for Afghanistan, and added that the joint economic and security commissions will shortly begin assessing the problems as well as opportunities for bilateral cooperation between the two countries.

Speaking on natural resources, President Ghani said Afghanistan will turn into a center for transit and electricity trade for the whole region.

President Ghani further stressed on seeking market for Afghanistan’s products and investment in modern agriculture in Afghanistan as an effective tool to counter narcotics.

President Rouhani said President Ghani’s visit to Tehran will pave the ground for closer cooperation in the areas of mutual interest mainly economy, energy, industry, mines, trade, as well as investment intransit, railways and roads.

President Rouhani said President Ghani’s visit to Tehran will pave the ground for closer cooperation in the areas of mutual interest mainly economy, energy, industry, mines, trade

Late on Sunday, President Ghani also called on Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, who urged for stronger ties between Afghanistan and Iran.

Mr. Khamenei said Afghanistan and Iran have many things in common and there are many areas in which the two neighboring countries could cooperate and work together.

President Ghani was leading a high-level delegation of Afghan government officials on a two-day official visit to Iran.

The relations between Iran and Afghanistan, the two neighboring countries, have improved considerably in recent years, especially during the latter part of former president Hamid Karzai’s tenure.

The new government in Kabul headed by President Ghani has pledged to improve ties with Iran and work closely in the areas of mutual interest.


- See more at: http://www.afghanzariza.com/2015/04/....NtNjxEd5.dpuf

[Bengal_Tiger]

- There are unconfirmed claims (i.e. rumours) online that the BRICS powers,
Russia, India and China have told Iran that sanctions will be lifted.

Even if the west does not lift its sanctions the BRICS will unilaterally declare the sanctions over i.e. they will give a two fingers up to the American regime.

Some of these states will apparently even trade with Iran in their own currencies e.g. the Chinese Yuan/Remnibi, the Russian Rouble etc.

This will accelerate the process of de-dollarization and thus the demise of America as the world's no.1 power and global bully.


However this is all unconfirmed and may just be false rumours.

We will have to wait and see.

I personally believe that even if the American regime secures some sort of deal with Iran it will then be blocked by the US Congress or the Republicans, in that case if it is true that the BRICS will tear up the sanctions then that is what will happen.

America will be exposed as a bully whose power is weakening more and more and that we are living in a more multi-polar world with Brazil, Russia, China and India balancing US global aggression.

[randolph85]

Iran's greatest strength from the revolution, barring the Iraq was has been that it has been stable. The question of what effect a sanction free Iran means for Afghanistan is kind of irrelevant since the relationship has not been dependent on the international economics of Iran's sanctions. As far as I know, Iran does no business in Afg which is hindered by sanctions, and even if it did then it wouldn't matter since there has never been any oversight. Even Karzai himself admitted to receiving suitcases full of cash from Iran.

[Bengal_Tiger]

It's over!


The sanctions are over!

No pictures of Iranians celebrating yet.


Comment

With sanctions being removed Tehran will start to realize part of its full potential. There is already talk of Iran spending $40 billion on defence.

Syria, Iraq and Iran are now all secure and part of an Iran led axis stretching from the borders of Afghanistan to the Mediterranean sea.

Not quite the "Shia crescent", Assad for example is a secular Baathist married to a Sunni and performs Sunni rituals and contrary to propaganda Syria is not an Alawi state (most Alawis are poor and looked down upon socially).

An Iran-led crescent though.



Impact on Afghanistan?

A stronger Iran means one which would support Shia militias and Hazaras against any Taliban threat. It will also seek to trade more vigorously with Afghanistan and facilitate India-Iran-Afghanistan trade.

The Afghan economy will develop.

A stronger Iran basically means a stronger Iran economically which boosts the Afghan economy too, meaning a stronger Afghanistan able to contain the Pakistani threat more.

As for the Dari (Farsi) v Pashto issue that is another topic which I as a foreigner do not want to comment on but would be interested in people's opinions.