Will the Saudis enter Sana'a?

[Bengal_Tiger]

The Saudis have been bombing Yemen wildly with a massive fleet of their own planes and other countries.

They've said they're doing this to support the government of president Hadi and also to stop the Houthis.

The Houthis control the capital Sana'a.

So the Saudis might have to take Sana'a and put Hadi back in power there.

I doubt they will do this as even the Saudis are not stupid enough to do street to street fighting to capture Sana'a, a city of around 2 million.

What do others think?

[Bengal_Tiger]

Arabs bombing Arabs.

Arabs fighting Arabs.

Arabs killing Arabs.

Iran watching whilst Arabs spend money, time and energy in bombing and killing fellow Arabs.

Meanwhile in Tehran:



Peace reigns.





* * * *

It is possible baiting Saudi to get ensnared in to a quagmire that drains Saudi financially, politically and militarily is what the Iranians wanted.

The Houthis are nearing Aden, the 2nd city of Yemen and port city.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/29/uk-yemen-security-idUKKBN0ML0YM20150329

If the Houthis take Aden what will the Saudis do?


1. Send Saudi troops to fight their way in, street by street in both Sana'a and Aden?


2. Send Saudi troops to fight their way in to Sana'a only?

3. Send Saudi troops to fight in Aden but leave the capital, Sana'a, in the hands of the Houthis, meaning no real effective reinstatement of the power of President Hadi.

4. Leave Saudi-backed Yemenis to take Sana'a.

What if they can't seeing as the Houthis are well trained by the Iranians the same people who trained Hizbullah to humiliate Israel in 2006.


If Saudi-backed Yemenis can't take Sana'a then "Decisive Storm" has not been decisive and the Houthis have prevailed.


The best thing Saudi should do is ignore their Pakistani military "advisors" and de-escalate all their military activities and call for a joint interim power-sharing national government of unity between Saleh and Hadi followed by elections.

I say this with the best interests of Saudi at heart and have given logical and rational explanations as to why this is the best course of action.



Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviets were able to at least take control of the Afghan capital Kabul, the Saudis may not be able to take the Yemeni capital Sana'a.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Algeria proposed cease-fire initiative in Yemen


Requesting anonymity, the diplomat told The Anadolu Agency that Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra presented the initiative on Thursday during an Arab foreign ministers meeting in Egypt's resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh.



Algerian foreign minister, Ramtane Lamamra.

World Bulletin / News Desk

Algeria has presented to both Saudi Arabia and Egypt an initiative for cease-fire in Yemen, an Algerian diplomat said Saturday.

He added that the initiative consisted of three points, noting that Algeria had only wanted to get approval from both Egypt and Saudi Arabia in order to start convincing Yemen's Shiite Houthi group to agree to the cease-fire.
The initiative called for the withdrawal of the Houthis from Yemeni capital Sanaa and the return of Yemen's dissolved parliament, the diplomat said.
He added that the initiative also called for giving security assurances to the Houthis and their allies in Yemen

Saudi Arabia asked, however, for amending the initiative in a way that could open the door for the deployment of Arab troops in Sanaa, the diplomat said.
"But this request could sabotage the initiative altogether," the diplomat added.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/157105/algeria-proposed-cease-fire-initiative-in-yemen

- The Saudis need to stop listening to the Pakistani military who lost half of the country in 1971, have made 3 million Pakistanis refugees (Pashtun IDPs) and have never achieved anything.

- How will the Saudis secure control of Sana'a by fighting street by street?

Once they capture of it how will they keep it and maintain control it if Yemeni insurgents carry out guerilla attacks against them or Hizbullah style suicide bombings?


- If they take the Algerian initiative they can be seen as a powerful and upset state that was restrained by Algerian moderation.

They will still retain dignity and an image of strength.

If they try to go to war then unless they capture Sana'a and put Hadi back in power they have achieved nothing. If they capture Sana'a and Saudi soldiers are killed and captured and Saudi youth with their huge interest in Youtube, twitter and social media see Youtube videos of captured Saudi soldiers or killed ones, the Saudi royal family will lose a lot of respect and appear as weak.

Being perceived as weakness is very dangerous.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Pakistan soldier captured by the Taliban, from a 2012 video.



Captured Pakistani soldiers who were later killed by the Taliban from the same video.


If the Saudi public see even a handful of Saudi soldiers captured on a video from the possibly thousands of Saudi soldiers that would be sent if the grave mistake of a Saudi invasion of Yemen is made, then it will have a very damaging effect on the image of the royal family.

Saudi being overstretched in Yemen killing and being killed by fellow Arabs decreases its ability to focus resources in Syria.

The Saudis need to go with the Algerian initiative.

The Arabs need to organize a joint Saleh-Hadi government of unity and then elections.

[Bengal_Tiger]

If the Yemen crisis escalate and becomes like Syria, there will be a lot of refugees.



- Syria had 5 neighbours, 2 of them couldn't take refugees i.e. war-ravaged Iraq which itself sent a million or more refugees to Syria during the early 2000s and sworn enemy Israel.

The 3 neighbours that took refugees were Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

Contrary to the picture above, Turkey is said to host 2 million refugees and not 1/2 a million.


Yemen has only two neighbours, Oman and Saudi.

- If a massive civil war escalates what will Saudi do if there is a huge refugee problem?

[Bengal_Tiger]

Yemeni and Houthi fighters clash in Aden

Fighting in Yemen continued today as fighters loyal to the country's President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi clashed with Houthi fighters in downtown Aden.
Seen as the leader's last major foothold in the country, Aden has been hit by heavy fighting for the last week and control of the southern port city's airport is said to have changed hands numerous times during the ongoing conflict.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-03-29/yemeni-and-houthi-fighters-clash-in-aden/

* The Houthis have entered Yemen's second city, Aden.

Aden is the main city and was the capital of South Yemen when it was independent before re-unification.




The Houthis are an Iranian-allied organization which receive Iranian training as well as other pro-Iranian Shias such as Hizbullah etc.


I think the Saudis should be patient and not feel that they have to take a major operation in Yemen.

Shias are the biggest ethno-religious group in the whole of Lebanon but despite that they have to live in relative peace with Sunni Muslims and Christians and their power is restricted.


The Houthis are not representative of the whole of the Zaydi community who are said to be 1/3 of Yemen e.g. former president Saleh is a Zaydi.

However Zaydis themselves are 1/3 of the population and cannot dominate Sunnis who are 2/3.

The worst thing Saudi can do is to fall for the Iranian bait and send their soldiers in to Sana'a and Aden.

They should merely support pro-Hadi fighters but foremost seek a political solution to this conflict.

* * *

The Houthis are just one faction amongst the Zaydi community and if there is a Houthi endorsed government, let us see how long it can govern poverty-stricken Yemen before the population turn against it.

Governing Yemen now is not an achievement but more of a burden.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Will the Saudis fall for the Iranian bait, the Iranian red rag?

The Iranians have deliberately been taunting Saudi Arabia by arming and supporting the Houthis who have been carrying out military exercises in the northern areas bordering Saudi Arabia.




Or...


will the Saudis play chess and look 5 moves ahead (not very easy for simple minded Bedouin from the Najd with no history of culture and civilization being advised by Punjabi military advisors)?




This is my take:

1. Iranians deliberately taunt and provoke Saudi by arming the Houthis and launching military exercise to incite them, wanting the Saudis to react and engage in this sort of stupid military operation.

>


2. As per possible Iranian game plan, the Saudis move in and try and capture Sana'a.

The Iranians may have calculated 3 possibilities all of them which work in their favour.


a: Saudis fail to capture Sana'a and are humiliated (Iranian win).

b: Saudis capture Sana'a (perhaps even the Houthis allow them to) and once there is a big force of Saudi troops in Sana'a they falling for the Iranian trap, are trapped inside Sana'a and killed left, right and centre.


(Iranian win)


c: Saudis capture Sana'a and reinstate Hadi - Houthis withdraw.

Hadi is seen as a Saudi-backed stooge and immediately loses credibility or does so in the long term after failing to deliver good governance.

Saudi Arabia is made to look like a bully and a sort of "colonial/imperialist" power.

Iran and others can say whereas the Iranian army is not in Damascus, the Saudi army is in Sana'a and has taken control/invaded/occupied a foreign state i.e. they are "Imperialists".

Staying in Yemen drains the Saudis financially, militarily and politically and weakens what they can do in Syria (and other places e.g. Lebanon).

This is still an Iranian win.

Yemen is not Iran. Yemenis are Arabs not Persians. Iranian does not suffer in any way but weakens Saudi Arabia and drains it of money, as well as militarily and politically.

What can the Saudis do?

If the Saudis have any brains (which they lack) and ignore their moronic Pakistani Punjabi military "advisors" (who lost half their country in 1971) they would do the following.

1. Contact Saleh, bribe him with a few million to form a joint interim government with Hadi.

The Saudis lost an F-15 which would be around $30 million.

For a fraction of the cost of that F-15 they can bribe Saleh to team up with Hadi.



2. There is something else they could do but which I cannot reveal in a public forum.

If anyone in the Saudi government is interested they can register on this forum and send me a private message

[Bengal_Tiger]

Even if the Houthis don't take Aden, which it looks quite possible they might do, if Aden becomes ungovernable and not controlled by anyone this is a major Iranian victory and Saudi defeat.

- There would be no city to be viewed as the capital or centre of anti-Houthi Yemenis.

- Hadi, the "president" (who the Saudis are seeking to "support") would not be in either Sana'a or Aden.

The longer he is out of the country or not in a major city, the longer he is not an actual governing leader, the more he loses credibility.


It seems the Saudis and Gulf Arabs had wanted Aden to act as the de facto Yemeni capital with the fall of Sana'a to the Houthis.

Can Aden replace Sana'a as capital? - Gulf Times.

Now with Aden gone, this option is gone.

The Saudis are losing the war

The Iranians are probably laughing at how successfully they've wound the Saudis up in to falling for their trap in Yemen, the Yemeni quagmire.

[Bengal_Tiger]

From this pro-Houthi Yemeni:

https://twitter.com/hussainbukhaiti

The cartoons are from a non-partisan Yemeni cartoonist who is critical of both the Houthis and Hadi.





Hadi, the former president of Yemen who resigned in February.

His resignation means that legally the Houthis and others would argue that as he is no longer the legal head of government of Yemen, the actual government of Yemen has not requested military aid from Saudi i.e. this is Saudi aggression against Yemen.




American made cluster bombs used in Yemen. An American-made F-15 fighter plane has had a "mechanical failure" a few days ago and been destroyed over the red sea.


Not from Bukhaiti's twitter:



Right "Al-Qa'idah", left "Fasaad" (corruption).

[Bengal_Tiger]

Iranian embassy in Yemen cartoon (image too large hence link).

"As-sifaratul Iraniyah" (The Iranian embassy) alluding to the extensive involvement of Iran in Yemen.

The cartoonist also has anti-Houthi cartoons and is clearly disappointed with all of the major factions and powers i.e. Hadi, the Houthis, Saudi + GCC, Iran, America etc.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Yemen: Foreign boots on the ground possible within days in fight against Houthis


By Holly Yan, Hakim Almasmari and Ben Brumfield, CNN
Updated 4:04 AM ET, Mon March 30, 2015



More coalition airstrikes target Houthi posts in Yemen, commanders say
Yemen's foreign minister says he expects coalition ground troops to arrive within days

Sanaa, Yemen (CNN)At any moment, Saudi Arabian troops could march through Yemen, heating up an already intense conflict that could have ramifications across the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia and eight other countries are striking a common enemy from the air: Shiite Houthi rebels, who have captured key parts of Yemen, ousted that country's President and could spread Iran's influence in the region.

The establishment of an Iranian proxy power in Yemen is an unacceptable notion to Iran's bitter rival on the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, as it is to Israel's government.


Already home to militants from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen now teeters on the brink of becoming a failed state and even more fertile breeding ground for extremism.

But if the coalition takes the fight to the ground, the cost could be intense. Houthis are battle hardened guerrilla fighters and could cross into Saudi Arabia...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/30/middleeast/yemen-saudi-arabia-intervention/

The Saudis should not send their own troops in to Sana'a.

They will be seen as invaders and aggressors.

This is what they should do including via their media.


1. Declare operation "''Aasifatul jazm" (decisive storm) a success:

- With the neutralization of the Houthi's ballistic arsenal.

- With the elimination of the Houthi's aerial power.


2. Say that Saudi Arabia has shown it is the most powerful country in the Arab world and able to rally an alliance of many Arab countries, a major diplomatic achievement.

That Saudi Arabian power is greater than Turkey's which backed this operation.


3. Talk about how efficiently the operation was conducted including the sheer number of sorties, the operational success and many other things.



After selling the operation as a success the Saudis should not send their own troops to Sana'a.

If they do they may experience the:

- Soviet experience in Afghanistan.

- American experience in Vietnam.

- Nasser's Egypt's experience in Yemen.

- Pakistan's humiliation in east Pakistan in 1971.

- American experience in Lebanon in 1983.

- American experience and humiliation in Somalia.





US defeat in Lebanon when they were humiliated and expelled from there in 1983-84 by Shia forces.




US defeat in Somalia when they were humiliated and expelled from there by Somali militia men.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Heavy fighting in Aden as Yemen's Houthis make gains

By REUTERS

PUBLISHED: 13:38, 30 March 2015 | UPDATED: 13:38, 30 March 2015


By Mohammad Mukhashaf and Sami Aboudi

ADEN, March 30 (Reuters) - Iran-allied Houthi militiamen pushed into the northeastern outskirts of the Yemeni port city of Aden on Monday amid heavy clashes with loyalists of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi apparently backed by Saudi-led air strikes....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3017846/Fighting-Aden-Yemens-Houthis-make-gains.html

- I saw some stuff on garbage American "news" channel, CNN and it seemed to me the American "pundits" on there were very eager to see Saudi get involved in a Yemeni war.





Saudi gets sucked in to a war in Yemen > Occupies Yemen and becomes the target of a guerilla war of attrition > declared a foreign aggressor and oppressor Houthis and others say they are at war with an invading state > Yemeni tribes push in to Saudi the way ISIL militant from Iraq moved in to Syria.


By the way Houthis, as part of a general wider sentiment in Yemeni society, have already said they refuse to recognize Saudi control of the southern provinces of Asir, Najran and Jizan which Yemenis say are theirs.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Voting so far:

Yes, Saudis will send their army in to Sana'a 3 50.00%
No they won't 2 33.33%
Other 1 16.67%

From media reports it seems like they are planning to go in there.


Saudi ships just off southern Yemeni shores have been blasting Houthi positions in Aden.

The aerial bombing carries on.

Aden airport is reported to have been destroyed.

Yemen already a poor country with 65% unemployment is being destroyed.

[tripledouble]

i want pakistan to stay out of this, these arabs treat pakistanis like crap yet they call for pakistan when they want to conquer some place or protect themselves,

[Kushan Prince]

Nah they probably will call daddy yankee for help.