Tweet
Originally posted by Bengal_Tiger
View Post
German re-unification.
German is an advanced capitalist state but the cost of re-unifying with the former east Germany (an artificial state which lasted for 4 decades) is estimated by some to have cost $2 trillion or $100 billion a year.
Even today there are cultural differences between the two sets of Germans with the west Germans viewing the east Germans as lazy and the east Germans viewing the west Germans as arrogant.
Yemen is an entity which is not 4 decades old but thousands of years old with ancient civilizations such as the Himyarite empire, the Sabaean empire.
Unlike the east Germans, the Yemenis have guns and lots of them.
Guns in Yemen.
Iran diverting Saudi resources in to Yemen.
- If Saudi successfully annexed Yemen (highly unlikely) then Saudi Arabia would have to spend billions more dollars each year in feeding, clothing, providing jobs, hospitals, schools for the 24 million Yemenis.
The population of the new "Saudi Arabia (+annexed Yemen)" would be 53 million, which is much more than Iraq.
Iraq had lots of oil but due to the large population never became as wealth as any of the GCC states.
The billions spent on trying to prop up Yemen would mean the Iranians would benefit on the Saudis being able to spend less money on defence.
The fact is Saudi annexation of Yemen would never work because the Yemenis are a proud and distinct people who due to their geography are very different to the bedouin Arabs of the interior of the peninsula in Najd and Hijaz.
Thousands of years of Yemeni identity could never be erased.
In addition to having to provide the ever expanding Saudi population with jobs, good standards of living, keeping the 2 million + Saudi Shias happy, the secular liberal sector of society happy, preventing any major sense of resentment in the Hejaz about Najdi domination the Saudis would then have to deal with 24 million Yemenis.
Yemenis have no desire to be invaded and conquered by Saudi Arabia but even if they did (which is totally ridiculous) and their average GDP per increased by ten times and went to $10,000 per person, people in Saudi proper would be twice as rich as them.
Also Saudi Arabia's Shia population (Zaydi + Jafari) would become around 10 million minimum.
How can Saudi Arabia control 10 million Shias if they rebel?
Saudi Arabian Shias riot in Qatif. Qatifi Shias do not have guns, Yemeni Shias do.
In some ways Saudi Arabia trying to annex Yemen is the ideal thing which the Iranians could hope for.
Ever since Saudi was created, Yemen has been independent and this has caused no problems for Saudi.
For decades Syria has been pro-Iran and this has not caused any major problems for Saudi.
It is only Saudi adventurism which has caused the Syria crisis but if the middle east reverted to its pre-2011 status, Saudi would be fine.
The fact is taking advice from losers like the Pakistani military (defence.pk) is ridiculous.
1. - The Pakistani military caused the loss of half of the country in 1971 due to repressing their own civilian population in the eastern wing, and suffering a humiliating defeat and mass surrender.
2. - The Pakistani military is not in full control of its own country including parts of Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
3. - The Pakistani military is the supreme ruler of a country which after 70 years of rule has 41 million people without toilets and 2 million slaves apart from constant terrorist attacks.
The Pakistan army led Pakistan to ruin and humiliation in 1971.
Pakistani armies surrender in independent Bangladesh in 1971. The 90,000 Pakistani force's surrender is the biggest mass surrender in modern history.
Their "advice" should be avoided by the Saudi government at any costs.
The Saudi government should allow the Houthis the "fun" of governing 24 million armed tribal Yemenis as they can never amass Yemeni public support for a war or attacks against Saudi Arabia, whereas if Saudi occupies Yemen the whole of Yemen (all 24 million bar a few) could turn against them and see the Houthis as part of a wider national liberation movement.
Letting the Houthis trying to provide jobs for the 24 million Yemenis and raising their living standards is much better.
Shia dominated Iraq has never attacked Saudi despite having a far stronger army and being majority Shia, mainly Sunni Yemen even with a Houthi-dominated government and far poorer than Iraq with a far inferior military will never attack Saudi.
The Pakistan army lost half the country in 1971 it should not ruin Saudi Arabia too.
German is an advanced capitalist state but the cost of re-unifying with the former east Germany (an artificial state which lasted for 4 decades) is estimated by some to have cost $2 trillion or $100 billion a year.
Even today there are cultural differences between the two sets of Germans with the west Germans viewing the east Germans as lazy and the east Germans viewing the west Germans as arrogant.
Yemen is an entity which is not 4 decades old but thousands of years old with ancient civilizations such as the Himyarite empire, the Sabaean empire.
Unlike the east Germans, the Yemenis have guns and lots of them.
Guns in Yemen.
Iran diverting Saudi resources in to Yemen.
- If Saudi successfully annexed Yemen (highly unlikely) then Saudi Arabia would have to spend billions more dollars each year in feeding, clothing, providing jobs, hospitals, schools for the 24 million Yemenis.
The population of the new "Saudi Arabia (+annexed Yemen)" would be 53 million, which is much more than Iraq.
Iraq had lots of oil but due to the large population never became as wealth as any of the GCC states.
The billions spent on trying to prop up Yemen would mean the Iranians would benefit on the Saudis being able to spend less money on defence.
The fact is Saudi annexation of Yemen would never work because the Yemenis are a proud and distinct people who due to their geography are very different to the bedouin Arabs of the interior of the peninsula in Najd and Hijaz.
Thousands of years of Yemeni identity could never be erased.
In addition to having to provide the ever expanding Saudi population with jobs, good standards of living, keeping the 2 million + Saudi Shias happy, the secular liberal sector of society happy, preventing any major sense of resentment in the Hejaz about Najdi domination the Saudis would then have to deal with 24 million Yemenis.
Yemenis have no desire to be invaded and conquered by Saudi Arabia but even if they did (which is totally ridiculous) and their average GDP per increased by ten times and went to $10,000 per person, people in Saudi proper would be twice as rich as them.
Also Saudi Arabia's Shia population (Zaydi + Jafari) would become around 10 million minimum.
How can Saudi Arabia control 10 million Shias if they rebel?
Saudi Arabian Shias riot in Qatif. Qatifi Shias do not have guns, Yemeni Shias do.
In some ways Saudi Arabia trying to annex Yemen is the ideal thing which the Iranians could hope for.
Ever since Saudi was created, Yemen has been independent and this has caused no problems for Saudi.
For decades Syria has been pro-Iran and this has not caused any major problems for Saudi.
It is only Saudi adventurism which has caused the Syria crisis but if the middle east reverted to its pre-2011 status, Saudi would be fine.
Pakistan a failed state and a defeated and disgraced military.
The fact is taking advice from losers like the Pakistani military (defence.pk) is ridiculous.
1. - The Pakistani military caused the loss of half of the country in 1971 due to repressing their own civilian population in the eastern wing, and suffering a humiliating defeat and mass surrender.
2. - The Pakistani military is not in full control of its own country including parts of Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
3. - The Pakistani military is the supreme ruler of a country which after 70 years of rule has 41 million people without toilets and 2 million slaves apart from constant terrorist attacks.
The Pakistan army led Pakistan to ruin and humiliation in 1971.
Pakistani armies surrender in independent Bangladesh in 1971. The 90,000 Pakistani force's surrender is the biggest mass surrender in modern history.
Their "advice" should be avoided by the Saudi government at any costs.
The Saudi government should allow the Houthis the "fun" of governing 24 million armed tribal Yemenis as they can never amass Yemeni public support for a war or attacks against Saudi Arabia, whereas if Saudi occupies Yemen the whole of Yemen (all 24 million bar a few) could turn against them and see the Houthis as part of a wider national liberation movement.
Letting the Houthis trying to provide jobs for the 24 million Yemenis and raising their living standards is much better.
Shia dominated Iraq has never attacked Saudi despite having a far stronger army and being majority Shia, mainly Sunni Yemen even with a Houthi-dominated government and far poorer than Iraq with a far inferior military will never attack Saudi.
The Pakistan army lost half the country in 1971 it should not ruin Saudi Arabia too.
Earlier this year, I had warned against Saudi adventurism in Yemen.
Now we can all see the results.
Forget about doing a "Crimea" on Yemen (i.e. annexing a country with almost the same population as Saudi thus allowing 20+ million Yemenis to have Saudi nationality and "Yemenize" Saudi Arabia), Saudi is having problems against a Yemeni invasion of Saudi itself.
Yemeni invasion of Saudi.
- If the Al-Saud tribe who rule Saudi are seen as weak, then other powerful tribes and confederacies such as the Qahtanis, Shammar and others will start asking questions.
The Al-Saud tribe have to placate the Qahtanis and others in order to rule Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia should basically tell Saleh that he can regain power in Sana'a with a joint Saleh-Hadi government.
Perhaps they can throw in some conditions e.g. tell Saleh to crack down on the Houthis.
- Yemen is a land of poverty with few resources which would be a huge drain and financial quagmire on Saudi if ever annexed as per the "advice" of Pakistani "experts".
Whoever rules Sana'a has a busy job keeping the different Yemeni tribes and regions happy e.g. Hadhramaut.
- Ruling Yemen is not a Saudi problem. However Saudi Arabia should have a more productive and positive policy in Yemen.
Saudi policy in Yemen now is basically to prevent any "threat" to the Saudis emerging which at one time they even supported Shias against Sunnis or to be more precise the Houthis against the local "Muslim" brotherhood wing, "Hizbul Islah".
Rather they should focus on developing positive relations with all sections of Yemeni society, all tribes of Yemen, give free scholarships to the children of wealthy tribal leaders, give Saudi nationality to a few talented elite Yemenis who are capable of enriching Saudi Arabia.
Stress their common history as peninsula Arabs (by default their lack of commonality with racist and arrogant Persians).
Saudi should also actively look for private business projects which helps to develop Yemen and make it a prosperous place.
Prosperity = Peace.
Happy people with money are not angry. Happy people do not want to fight.
Muslims should work for the prerservation of the Saudi state and its borders, and the same for Syria. In other words Muslims should work for stability and not violent border changes with accompanying massacres, bloodshed, ethnic cleansing and instability.
As well as mass migration, there are said to be 15 million refugees in Syria and Iraq.
May Allah ta'ala bring peace to the lands of the Hejaz, Najd and Yemen.
Comment