Erdogan Watch

[Bengal_Tiger]

Gov't whistleblower claims Turkey’s AK Party ready to rig elections

In the latest allegations from government whistleblower and Twitter phenomenon Fuat Avni, the party has already prepared the teams to rig Turkey’s upcoming elections.

Gov't whistleblower claims Turkey’s AK Party ready to rig elections
Claiming that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) had already “prepared an A team to engage in election fraud,” government whistleblower Fuat Avni explained in a series of tweets posted late Thursday night that the individuals who will be committing the vote rigging in municipalities, towns and villages have already been determined.

“They have been given instructions regarding 174,000 different ballot boxes,” alleges Avni, “They have been told to steal at least 20 votes from each ballot box. They plan to steal 3,480,000 votes total across Turkey.”

The whistleblower added that according to the AK Party’s calculations, if they steal 7 percent of the vote they will be able to form a one-party government. Hence why pro-government polling firms like Anar and Genar keep listing the AK Party at 45-46 percent, even though other firms put them at closer to 38 percent, just so after the election they will be able to claim legitimacy.

Avni added that the mentality in the AK Party establishment at the moment was that this electoral fraud was ‘a jihad,’ with those who would be committing the vote rigging were praying to not get caught. “The ballot boxes, which they consider the reflection of the national will, don’t really reflect the national will,” he said, “Nobody knows this better than the AK Party’s AK-thieves.”

He also alleged that the leaders of the vote-rigging "AK thieves" were former Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Beşir Atalay, Anar polling firm General Manager İbrahim Uslu, AK Party Deputy Mahir Ünal, former Interior Minister Efkan Ala and AK Party Deputy Chair Süleyman Soylu.

Fuat Avni is an anonymous whistleblower who has been a thorn in the side of the AK Party for over a year now, revealing many of their most secret plans and designs on Twitter.

May 29, 2015 | BGNNews.com | Istanbul

http://national.bgnnews.com/govt-whistleblower-claims-turkeys-ak-party-ready-to-rig-elections-haberi/6368

"Fuat Avni" is a pseudonym for someone with inside information on the activities of the Erdogan regime.

Whether this is true I don't know, but it's important to be aware of.

- Erdogan's regime have been using the machinery of the state including the judiciary, police force and other things to silence dissent and curb the opposition.



Bernard Lewis, one of the key figures suspected to be behind the US patronage of Erdogan.



More than likely the Americans have decided they want a resounding AKP victory in Turkey and Erdogan as super-president.

However the American goal of making a super-powerful Turkey that bullies and bosses around the rest of the Muslim world has some serious deficiencies and will not be allowed by Russia, China and nationalists in Muslim countries.

[jankhan]

Erdogan is the guy to be respected.

[Bengal_Tiger]

ERDOGAN SUPPLYING ARMS TO WAHABI TERRORISTS IN SYRIA, ISIS.



Reuters: 21- May

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-arms-idUSKBN0O61L220150521

Naharnet:

Story on Turkey's renowned "Cumhuriyet" paper exposing Erdogan using MIT (Turkish intelligence) to supply arms to Wahabi terrorists.

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/180421

Erdogan has struck back by accusing the paper of "terrorism"...lol.



Terrorism probe launched against newspaper which revealed arms to Syria



A terrorism investigation has been launched against the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet for publishing a video allegedly revealing the arms Ankara was sending to Syria, an accusation the government has vehemently denied with claims those shipments were simply aid to unaffiliated groups.
Terrorism probe launched against newspaper which revealed arms to Syria
Late Thursday night the Cumhuriyet daily posted a video which allegedly showed the January 19, 2014 search of Syria-bound trucks in Turkey’s southern province of Adana, launching a scandal that has plagued Ankara in the year-and-a-half since.

The political opposition alleges that the trucks were transporting arms to terrorist groups in Syria, while the government claims that they were simply delivering humanitarian aid such as medicine to various ethnic Turkmen groups in Syria.

The government has also been accusing anyone who claims Ankara had aided terrorists of terrorism. The prosecutors who ordered the trucks be searched along with the military officers who conducted the search have all been arrested on terrorism-related charges.

The video Cumhuriyet got ahold of, which the daily claims was in the public prosecutor’s case file, depicts a search of a truck. Upon initially opening the load of the truck, the authorities find a layer of cardboard boxes containing medicine. Beneath the boxes of medicine however is a staggering collection of ammunition. All in all Cumhuriyet claims there were 1,000 mortars, 1,000 artillery shells, 50,000 assault rifle rounds and 30,000 heavy machine gun rounds in the truck.

An investigation has been launched by the public prosecutor’s office on Friday against the Cumhuriyet daily on charges of committing an act of terrorism.

May 29,2015 | BGNNews.com | Istanbul

http://national.bgnnews.com/terrorism-probe-launched-against-newspaper-which-revealed-arms-to-syria-haberi/6363

[Bengal_Tiger]

Merve Buyuksarac standing trial for "insulting" Erdogan.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/turkish-paper-fined-model-on-trial-for-erdogan-insults/article/433873

Turkish journalist and leader of leftist party, Gokce Firat arrested by counter-terrorism police for "insulting" Erdogan, this month.





Turkish writer, Emrah Sebrbes arrested for "insulting" Erdogan, this month.




Istanbul Imam (Diyanet employee i.e. the Diyanet is the Turkish states ministry for controlling religion) sacked for "insulting" Erdogan.

Erdoğan insult paranoia wrongfully implicates imam in Istanbul
The widespread investigations on offending a public official or President Erdoğan get taken to ridiculous heights as an Istanbul imam’s rant in a pastry shop against individuals who stole from him were misinterpreted to be about President Erdoğan.


Erdoğan insult paranoia wrongfully implicates imam in Istanbul
“These men are stealing and swindling people and still walking free,” said Azmi Koç, while talking to his friend at a pastry shop in Istanbul’s Beykoz district. Though, he says, he was talking about a car dealer who had ripped him off, Koç was fired by the Directorate of Religious Affairs for 'insulting the president.'

The investigation started when two bystanders in the pastry shop presumed that Koç must have been a member of “the parallel state”, a term coined by the government to castigate individuals perceived to be followers and sympathizers of Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, and filed a complaint. Critics have slammed the governing Justice and Development Party for engaging in a witch hunt under the pretext of fighting “the parallel state.”

Koç however was referring to a car dealer accused of numerous shady dealings, against whom Koç had even filed a legal complaint in 2014. ..

The two men who filed the complaint were outraged themselves after seeing the investigation report. They say that words and other details were added to implicate the imam. “I had not even thought it was important to read what my statement looked like on paper. When I did read the paper I saw that things I had not said were added on,” said one of the men, identified to media by his initials H.K. One of the lies was that Koç specifically named the ruling AK Party and Erdoğan.

The request by the two men to have their complaint be withdrawn has been left without a response, and they are now preparing to file another complaint, this time against the chief inspector who prepared the report on their testimony.

The “insulting a public official” crime has put scores of journalists, academicians, ordinary citizens -- even some teenagers -- under investigation.

http://national.bgnnews.com/erdogan-insult-paranoia-wrongfully-implicates-imam-in-istanbul-haberi/6303

- Erdogan is a semi-dictator and is ultimately aiming to be a full-on dictator in all but name.

He is

- Training and arming Wahabi terrorists and fanatics.

- Arresting teenagers, models, writers, Imams.

- Supporting war criminals in Bangladesh.

- Supporting ISIS in Libya

He has just totally lost it.

Turkey is no proper democracy and no proper model for the Muslim world, the Bernard Lewis project for a neo-Ottoman Turkey has failed.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Voter sheets for nonexistent flats cast further doubt on Turkish elections
Residents of an apartment in the Kartaltepe neighborhood of Istanbul’s
Bakırköy district find voter sheets for nonexistent flat numbers, as concerns over potential ballot-rigging loom in the upcoming June 7 general elections.




Voter sheets for nonexistent flats cast further doubt on Turkish elections
Resident Nalan Dilaverler doesn't see any way this could have been a mistake. She has been living in the flat 20 years and has never witnessed such a thing. “Our apartment’s flat numbers start from 4 and end at 11. However voter sheets have come to nonexistent flat numbers 1, 2, 3 and 12” she says, showing the mentioned voter sheets in front of the cameras.

This has not been the only case of potential voter fraud. In early May an accountant who had been living in the neighborhood for 40 years in the Sultangazi district of Istanbul had found papers for three voters in his own building and five in the next door building which belonged to people that have never lived in the building.

In the bigger scope, opposition parties are being denied access to public squares for their campaign rallies, the authorities are taking down their campaign banners and police are shutting down their election stands. Complaints filed to the Supreme Elections Board, (YSK) charging President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with violating the constitutionally-mandated impartiality of his office have been swiftly declined repeated times.

Nalan Dilaverler has since been on trial to bring up the issue concerning her apartment building. She has gone back and forth between to the local official of the neighborhood, then the civil registry offices, to the municipality and to the district electoral board, to no avail. “I will become a ballot official and follow up on these names, and we will file a complaint about the officials and these names to the prosecutor’s office.”

May 28, 2015 | BGNNews.com | Istanbul

http://national.bgnnews.com/voter-sheets-for-nonexistent-flats-cast-further-doubt-on-turkish-elections-haberi/6355

* The US will probably ensure that their boy Erdogan wins the elections by hook or by crook.

When I say "win", I don't mean an AKP victory which is a foregone conclusion, I mean the AKP getting 2/3 of all seats.

This 2/3 of all seats will then mean a referendum making Erdogan "president" (dictator) and then Erdogan will accelerate his programme.

There is already talk of new ideology called "Erdoganism" in contrast to the brutal fascist ideology known as "Kemalism".

However America can plan and plot, but Allah ta'ala is the best of planners.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Turkey’s Erdoğan threatens editor who exposed arms to Syria

http://national.bgnnews.com/turkeys-erdogan-threatens-editor-who-exposed-arms-to-syria-haberi/6440

Government whistleblower claims mass detentions before elections



Online government whistleblower Fuat Avni has claimed that the ruling AK Party, concerned it can no longer engage in witch hunts if it does not win enough seats in the June 7 general elections to form a government, will be preemptively arresting nearly 200 journalists, critics and opponents.
Government whistleblower claims mass detentions before elections
In the latest allegations by government whistleblower and Twitter phenomenon Fuat Avni, a thorn in the side of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) for over a year now for revealing many top secret plans, has claimed that nearly 200 journalists, judges and police officers will be put under arrest in the lead up to the June 7 general elections.

Avni notes that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is worried of a possible trial at the International Criminal Court over arms being delivered to radical groups in Syria, which allegedly included al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), footage of which was exposed last week by Turkish daily Cumhuriyet.

In a series of tweets posted on Monday morning, Avni also notes how the administration is concerned they will not be able to conduct their witch hunts if they do poorly in the upcoming elections and are forced to establish a coalition government, and so the president has allegedly ordered a massive wave of arrests prior to Sunday’s vote.

Some of the journalists to be arrested supposedly include such prominent figures as Can Dündar, the editor-in-chief of Cumhuriyet who exposed the alleged arms to Syria; Ekrem Dumanlı, the editor-in chief of Zaman; Bülent Keneş, the editor-in-chief of Today's Zaman; Kerim Balcı, the editor-in-chief of Turkish Review, a weekly news magazine; Celil Sağır, the managing editor of Today's Zaman; Faruk Mercan, the Ankara representative of Bugün TV; Adem Yavuz Arslan, the Washington bureau chief for Bugün newspaper; Nazlı Ilıcak, a veteran columnist at Bugün; Ahmet Altan, former editor-in-chief of Taraf daily; Yasemin Çongar, former editor of Taraf; Emre Uslu, columnist at Today's Zaman.

Judges and prosecutors involved with exposing government corruption are also included in Fuat Avni’s list, including Zekeriya Öz, Nuri Ahmet Saraç, Cihan Kansız, Muammer Akkaş, Ercan Şafak, Süleyman Pehlivan, Bilal Bayraktar, Ömer Solmaz and Mehmet Berk. From the Institute of Forensic Medicine Lokman Başer, Bülent Ünal, Mehmet Akın, Eyüp Kandemir, Gürol Berber, Bülent Özata, İsmail Çakır, Burak Akoğuz, Erdem Alpaslan and Orhan Pamuk.

http://national.bgnnews.com/government-whistleblower-claims-mass-detentions-before-elections-haberi/6438

Yasemin Congar, may be arrested by the Erdogan regime according to "Fuat Avni".



Orhan Pamuk, may also be arrested.


*I doubt Erdogan will arrest these people and even if he planned to he won't do it now as it has been exposed. However this is Erdogan we are speaking about so anything is possible.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Turkish exports continue to decline year to year in May 2015


With USD 10.8 million in May 2015, Turkish exports have declined 19 percent year on year according to Monday's statement from the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly.

Turkish exports continue to decline year to year in May 2015
In the past five months exports have come in approximately at USD 61.3 billion, a 8.3 percent decline compared to the same period in 2014.

The steep declines the Turkish Lira has witnessed compared to the US Dollar have been noted as the key factor. In fact the currency slump was estimated to have cost Turkish exports USD 1.1 billion in May alone, and USD 5.7 billion in the first five months of 2015.

June 1, 2015 | BGNNews.com | Istanbul

http://business.bgnnews.com/turkish-exports-continue-to-decline-year-to-year-in-may-2015-haberi/6437

The most important thing for ordinary Turks is to feed their families. If the economy collapses, Erdogan will be out sooner or later.



Other news:

Feyzioğlu calls for end to broadcast ban on Syria-bound trucks



Chairman of Turkish Bar Associations Metin Feyzioğlu calls for a lift on the gag order concerning the 2014 raid on trucks allegedly carrying weapons to Syria to extremist groups, pointing to the government’s conflicting statements.

Feyzioğlu calls for end to broadcast ban on Syria-bound trucks

The Turkish government recently put a gag order on a damning report from the Cumhuriyet daily -- photos and film on the daily's website which, if true, would prove that the government was engaging in arms smuggling to militant groups in Syria. In January of 2014, several trucks carrying ammunition and arms were intercepted at the border by military police, and while the trucks allegedly belong to Turkey's intelligence agency MİT, the government claims it was only sending aid to non-combatant civilians...

http://national.bgnnews.com/feyzioglu-calls-for-end-to-broadcast-ban-on-syria-bound-trucks-haberi/6433

Former Turkish police chief says he’s been hostage for 10 months




Ali Fuat Yılmazer, former police chief who was jailed for investigating government corruption and also an independent candidate for the upcoming parliamentary election, said he has been kept hostage for the past 10 months despite a court ruling for his release.


Former Turkish police chief says he’s been hostage for 10 months
Jailed former police chief Ali Fuat Yılmazer posted a letter on his Twitter account where he shared the difficulties he is facing behind bars and noted how he had been illegally held hostage for the past 10 months.

Yılmazer was among the over 100 police arrested on the night of July 22, 2014 on charges of alleged ‘espionage’ for their involvement in the December 17-25, 2013 investigations that exposed unlawful activity and corruption by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

“They combed through every detail of my past with the roughness of a witch hunt,” the letter began, “But they couldn’t find a single wrong thing I did. And so they came up with a false and illegal investigation to arrest me. I’ve been kept as a hostage for 10 months in a case where the indictment hasn’t even been written yet, despite there having been a release order.”

In April Istanbul’s 32nd Court of First Instance ruled to release Yılmazer along with dozens of other police officers and Samanyolu Broadcast Group CEO Hidayet Karaca, all under arrest over highly controversial charges. However Ankara prevented the court order from being implemented, and instead discharged from the profession then arrested the two judges responsible for the ruling.

May 31, 2015 | BGNNews.com | Istanbul

http://national.bgnnews.com/former-turkish-police-chief-says-hes-been-hostage-for-10-months-haberi/6431

Summary

- Erdogan has banned a video exposing his role in arming ISIS in Syria.

- He has kept a Turkish police officer captive illegally for 10 months.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Fatal election



Nuray Mert.


Turkey has already adopted a de facto “leadership” or “supreme guidance” system. The parliamentary elections has already turned into a referendum, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan campaigns not only openly to support the governing party but also for a new political system. The current leader of the governing party, the prime minister has no option other than to campaign for the so-called “Turkish presidential system” which will end his premiership and the political role for him and his party. As for the so-called “Turkish presidential system,” it is defined as the absolute rule under President Erdoğan, who is assumed by his supporters to be “the national leader.”

First of all, this election campaign has already redefined the terms of politics as “national struggle.” The president and his supporters define the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) as “the party of the nation” and the opposition as the enemies of the nation and national interests. Since it is has been claimed that the future of the nation is at stake, the terms of democratic politics turn out to be irrelevant.

Moreover, according to the new revolutionary talk of the president and his party, it is not only the current parliamentary system and the constitution, but also the current definition of the nation and its interests that are irrelevant.

It is so because the republican regime defines the nation along secular lines which ignores the historical and religious past and culture. In this view, Turkey is the historical center of Sunni Islam and has responsibilities not only toward its citizens but to the whole Sunni world. That is why the role of the Religious Affairs Directorate is being elevated not only to a sort of political guidance but is also targeting global influence for Sunni Muslims – making the comparison with the status of the pope no coincidence. So therefore, the national interest is no longer limited to the interests of Turkey’s citizens but defined in terms of Turkey’s global historico-religious mission. Finally, the definition of the nation-state is being questioned as the imposition of imperialist powers at the end of World War I.

If the governing party manages to get a comfortable majority in the election, not only the new definition of the political regime, but also the redefinition of national citizenship and national interests will be institutionalized along with new jurisdictions and the new Turkey project will be enacted by all means. The iron hand of the prospective system has already started to be felt by all sorts of authoritarian measures against all sorts of opposition, especially after the Gezi event; the New Turkey project promises more. The pro-government media has already started to create an “ancien regime” to lead a witch hunt. We already have special courts and draconian laws of terror and national security. If the project finds the chance to be completed after the elections, I am sure some sort of revolutionary courts or court cases will follow.

As I wrote before, this is no ordinary election but is set to be an elective revolution in the negative sense of the term. If the Kurdish party manages to overcome the 10 percent threshold and the governing party loses some power, we will have hope for the restoration of democracy. In this case, the opposition within the governing party will also have an opportunity to assert its discontent about the recent extremism of their party. Nevertheless, even then, things will not go easy, since neither Erdoğan nor his recent cronies will feel obliged by democratic procedures. If this is no ordinary election but a matter of national struggle as they claim, the national leader will feel free to act in the name of the nation and its so-called interests rather than obey the whims of what is called a Western democracy. I am afraid Turkey is heading toward more political crises after the election, even if the AKP loses some support. If not, we will face not only political but existential crises.

In short, a “fatal election” is coming soon to a Turkish theatre near you, with its star actor reprising the role of an “homme fatale.”

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fatal-election--.aspx?pageID=449&nID=83245&NewsCatID=406

More about Professor Mert:

She used to host a TV show, [B]but this was dropped after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan publicly criticized her. She was also fired on February 19, 2012 from her job as a columnist for the daily newspaper Milliyet. Mert has said that she now fears for her personal safety.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuray_Mert

Comment:

In my view Professor Mert is basically right.

This election if it sees a resounding AKP win will lead to an Erdogan "super-presidency", i.e. a dictatorship in all but name.

The Kemalists were fascists and far more brutal and worse than Erdogan, but Erdogan initially was a liberalizer and a democrat.

However now Erdogan wants to become a neo-Ottoman style Sultan or "Basbug" for the "ummet" (Islamic ummah).

These elections in Turkey have a huge impact on the rest of the Muslim world because if Erdogan wins he will go on 4th gear to realize the American-plan of Turkey being the de facto boss of the Muslim world.

Erdogan is already trying to make the head of the Diyanet (Kemalist created state body to control religion for state purposes) a type of spiritual leader for all Muslims.

Mehmet Gormez, head of the Diyanet (Kemalist created body to monitor and control religion in Turkey)




Gormez created controversy by being given a $435,000 luxury Mercedes car (which he later gave back).


Erdogan wants to make himself the de facto Sultan of the Muslim world and Gormez the "Pope" or Sheykhul Islam of the Muslim world.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has justified the controversial allocation of a luxury car to Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) head Mehmet Görmez, comparing the situation to the allocation of armored vehicles and private plane to the pope.

“Mehmet Görmez is not only Turkey’s religious leader. He is an esteemed religious leader of this region and the Islamic world. One should look at the issue from this angle,” Erdoğan said late on May 26, when asked about the allocation of the official car, which is estimated to have a value of 1 million Turkish Liras ($435,000).

Speaking in an interview on private broadcaster NTV, Erdoğan repeated his previously expressed opinion that he would have rejected Görmez’s returning of the car if he had been told beforehand.

The president also stated that it was his personal initiative that had allocated an armored Mercedes from the inventory of the presidential office to the Diyanet head.

“Why don’t they [critics] look at the Vatican? In the Vatican, the religious leader has a private plane, private vehicles, and armored vehicles,” Erdoğan said, expressing regret that Görmez had to fly in scheduled flights. He said he would speak with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu about providing an official private plane to Görmez for his visits abroad.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-defends-luxury-car-and-plane-for-top-cleric-refers-to-the-pope.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83031&NewsCatID=338

- America and Bernard Lewis must be stopped in their Neo-Ottoman plan to make Turkey the "ruler of the Muslim world".

I agree with Professor Mert in her article.

These elections are crucial in the history of the Turkish nation and to save it from being converted in to a semi-theocratic dictatorship.

We wish Turks good luck against this mad man and meglomaniac, Erdogan.

HELAL OLSUN TURKIYE!

[Bengal_Tiger]

Voting in Turkey today. Possibilities:


1. AKP win 2/3 of seats, then propose referendum for super-presidency which Erdogan will probably win.

2. AKP win simple majority but not 2/3 so cannot organize referendum.

3. AKP will fail to get a majority. There will be a coalition.



#3 is very unlikely, so it's really either #1 or #2.


Most observers think it's likely to be #2.


I think the HDP (secular leftist homosexophile party with Kurdish base) will get above the 10% threshold to get seats in the parliament.

The HDP and Erdogan and his AKP will then negotiate.


What may happen is that Erdogan gets his super-presidency in exchange for Kurdish autonomy in the south-east.

There will then be three autonomous Kurdish states in Turkey, Iraq and Syria.

Kurds will become far more powerful.

This also has an impact on the Baloch in Pakistan. Kurds and Baloch see each other as blood brothers the way Turks and Azeris see each other as blood brothers.





The Baloch getting stronger also has an effect on their neighbours, the Pashtuns, whom they live with in the federation of Pakistan.

[Bengal_Tiger]

UPDATE

80% of votes have been counted in the Turkish elections.


The secular leftist Kurdish-based HDP have 12% of votes.

If they have below 10% then they get no seats as the electoral threshold is 10%, and the AKP will probably end up with a big majority.

However at the moment it stands like this:

AKP: 255 seats (40% of votes).

CHP: (secularist Kemalist party): 133 seats (25%)

MHP: (far right, semi-fascist Turkish nationalist party): 86 seats (17%)

HDP: (secular leftist, homosexophiliac, Kurdish-based party): 77 seats (12.2%)

If results stay like this, the AKP lose complete power (i.e. ruling without a coalition after 13 years).

This will be the end of an era!




The AKP will probably have to chose a coalition partner, which will either be the essentially fascist MHP or the homosexophiliac HDP.


If it is the HDP, then as I stated before Erdogan might get the HDP for them to accept them changing the constitution and becoming a super-president in return for Kurdish autonomy.

[Bengal_Tiger]

AKP after 2011 were on 327 seats.

Now as it stands they will be on 255.





CHP, Kemalists, more or less same amount of seats, 132 in 2015 and 138 in 2011.

Down 4 seats.





MHP, Turkish fascists, up by 50 seats from 36 in 2011 to 86 this year.






HDP, Homosexophiliac secular Kurdish-based party, with 78 seats i.e. more than what the MHP have had for the past 4 years.






The HDP are the biggest winners of this election.

AKP are the biggest losers!


I had predicted a major AKP victory, I was - if things stay like this - wrong.

[Bengal_Tiger]

I still think that Erdogan will make a deal with the Kurdish nationalists (HDP) that in exchange for them supporting a new constitution to make him super-president, they will get massive concessions including Kurdish autonomy.

So though the AKP has lost, I don't think this is the end of the road for Erdogan, far from it.

However we will have to wait and see, I might be wrong.

Almost 92% of ballot boxes have been counted and the percentages are all pretty much the same as I mentioned in my post above.


- The biggest losers, more than even the AKP or Erdogan, are the Kemalists.




Kemalists biggest losers of the election.

- Kemalism is a fascist ideology and was the ideology of the secular urban elite. It is racist, anti-Kurdish and violently anti-Islam.

The HDP are a secular Kurdish nationalist party so thus this goes against the Kemalist ideology of a monolinguistic, mono-ethnic "pure" Turkish state.


Erdogan will still be president and he is semi-secretly anti-Ataturk and ostensibly a religious conservative.

Islam and Kurdish identity are hated ferociously by Kemalists.



Kemalism, the ideology of the fascist Turkish army before Erdogan weakened them. Kemalists will be furious with their latest electoral humiliation albeit delighted with the AKP "defeat".



The worst case scenario for Kemalist fanatics is that Erdogan becomes super-president and enforces increased "Islamization", whilst the south-east becomes autonomous and for example destroys/removes all Ataturk statues in the region.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Here is a table.



The final results are slightly (but negligibly) different.

1. Erdogan's AKP (though officially he is not supposed to have anything to do with them, though in reality he has been openly campaigning for them) are the biggest political party in Turkey and have 125 more seats than the next biggest party.

2. The CHP have more or less the same amount of seats before, so no major change.


3. The fascist MHP (greywolves party) have 50 more seats than before so have done well.

4. The biggest winners are the HDP (secular homosexophiliac Kurdish-based party) as it's the first time a political wing of the PKK has entered parliament officially as a party.

The HDP in its previous incarnations was known as the BDP, DTP etc, but kept on getting banned by the secular fascist controlled Turkish courts and kept on changing its name.

Due to the 10% threshold under Turkish law they could never enter parliament so stood as independents.



Selahettin Demirtas, the head of the HDP (political wing of the PKK) when he was younger.



Demirtas with the PKK terrorist organization.


Demirtas may soon be on his way to becoming the 2nd most powerful man in Turkey, a nation of over 70 million, after Erdogan himself.

Some are saying that despite Demirtas ruling out a coalition with the AKP he may anyway have one.

If the HDP form a government with the AKP then they will probably work on making Erdogan a super-president, whilst they get Kurdish autonomy and some government ministries. Demirtas might become foreign minister.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Kurdish support for Baloch rights

The Kurds are cousins or a sister-nation of the Baloch.

Kurdish nationalists and Baloch nationalists work together and see each other as blood brothers.

Below is a tweet by a HDP supporter on Pakistan's nuclear tests in occupied Balochistan.



If the HDP do form a government with the AKP they should try to help the oppressed Kurds, here are some measures they can take.



1. Raise the issue of human rights in Balochistan in bi-lateral meetings between Turkey and Pakistan.

2. Form a parliamentary committee to monitor the situation in Balochistan.

3. Assign a special envoy to liaise with Pakistan on resolving human rights abuses in Balochistan.


If not at least Baloch leaders can visit Demirtas and the HDP in Turkey to discuss how to protect the rights of their people.



Baloch activist with the surname "Kurd". The Baloch and Kurds are ethnically related.



Baloch-Kurd protest in Canada.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Update:

- Erdogan has not arranged the formation of a coalition government.

- Contrary to what I thought earlier it does not seem like there will be any coalition between the pro-homosexual HDP and Erdogan's AKP.

- It is highly likely there will be new elections soon, unless Erdogan and his prime minister Davutoglu decide to form a coalition with the CHP (party founded by dictator Ataturk).

- There has been a bomb attack in a city called Suruc in the south of Turkey. Turkey has reacted by bombing sites in Syria blaming the attack on ISIS.

- The Turkish economy is suffering due to the post-election instability, lack of proper government etc.



Mehmet Cetingulec.

Ankara turns blind eye to economic downturn


Turkey’s economy has entered a critical period. The prospect of snap elections remains alive despite six possible ways to form a coalition or minority government from the hung parliament the June 7 polls produced. The political impasse is already having a negative impact on economic indicators, atop the bruising effects of Russia’s economic crisis, civil strife in neighboring countries, the blockage of Turkey’s export routes to the Middle East and Africa, the prospect of the Fed hiking interest rates and the falling euro-dollar parity.


While Turkey’s revenues are decreasing, the burden of Syrian and Iraqi refugees has opened a virtual “black hole” in the economy. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put the refugees’ bill at $6 billion, in a reproachful speech to foreign ambassadors in Ankara on July 9. “We are currently hosting 2 million people, including 300,000 from Iraq and 1.7 million from Syria,” he said. “The money we have spent for Syrians so far has exceeded $6 billion. But we have received only $400 million [in support] from international sources. Yet we’ll never withdraw our helping hand.”

It’s hard to predict how much more Turkey will spend on the refugees as their number keeps growing amid continuing bloodshed in Syria and Iraq. In the same speech, Erdogan said over 20,000 Syrians had crossed to Turkey in the first two weeks of June amid fighting in Tell Abyad, while the number of those who came from Kobani had reached 190,000.

Turkey is willing to sustain its humanitarian assistance, but it needs greater funding to do that. Thus, the economy has to grow and strengthen. But is the economy growing?

That Turkey will miss its economic targets this year is already a foregone conclusion. In remarks last week, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said the prospect of snap polls was taking a toll on the economy, with the outlook deteriorating and the 4% growth projection under growing risk. He stressed that political uncertainty could force the private sector to defer investments, adding, “Ongoing political uncertainty could lead also to an increase in Turkey’s international risk premium, make the depreciation of the Turkish lira permanent and even cause a certain hike in interest rates.” The minister spoke of risks also to the current account deficit and the tourism sector.

The current account deficit, a long-standing Turkish woe, was $3.99 billion in May, above expectations, and $44.7 billion on a 12-month basis, up from $44.3 billion last year.

The World Bank has warned that Turkey’s economic outlook for 2015 depends on the resolution of post-election political uncertainty, which, it said, has already created downside risks to growth. The bank kept its 2015 growth forecast for Turkey at 3%, but revised downward its 2016 and 2017 projections from 3.9% and 3.7% respectively to 3.5% for both years.

The problem with growth stems from the decline in exports, which owes to lower demand in Europe, the primary buyer of Turkish goods, as well as in Russia and the Middle East. Turkish exports stood at $150.8 billion on a 12-month basis in June, down from the yearly total of $157.6 billion last year. Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci has said the global appreciation of the dollar and the fall in commodity prices could result in a decline of up to $20 billion in Turkish exports in 2015.

Former Finance Minister Zekeriya Temizel, now a parliament member for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), told Al-Monitor that 2015 could be completely lost due to the prospect of snap polls.

“Local and foreign investors are anxious over the possibility of early elections. They hope for the formation of a government that would give confidence to the markets. Also, foreign capital inflow is needed, as Turkey has to roll over a current deficit of about $45-50 billion and a debt of some $132 billion maturing this year,” Temizel said. “Thus, the speedy formation of a government capable of structural reforms is important. Early elections will mean Turkey wasting another eight months. Yet if one lacks any [real] intention to form a coalition, one should not waste further time [to go to snap polls].”

The Economy Ministry’s data backs up Temizel’s worries. In the first four months of the year, foreign direct investment stood at $4.03 billion, down 22.6% from $5.2 billion in the same period last year.

The situation in the tourism sector is not promising either. Bookings in Turkey’s tourism facilities are usually made in euros. The fall in the euro-dollar parity, coupled with a decline in the number of Russian tourists, has led to a bleak prospect for the sector, with revenues expected to fall for the first time in five years after a stable increase since 2010. Last year, the tourism sector had generated $34.3 billion, up from $32.3 billion in 2013, $29 billion in 2012, $28.1 billion in 2011 and $24.9 billion in 2010. The head of the Turkish Hotels Federation, Osman Ayik, estimates tourism revenues will be down by $5 billion this year.

The ill use of privatization revenues is another factor increasing economic fragility. CHP lawmaker Umut Oran, who closely follows the economy, believes privatization programs under the 13-year rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been a fiasco.

“Privatizations during the 1986-2002 period were worth $8 billion in total. In the 2003-2015 period under the AKP, this figure reached $61.8 billion with the sell-off of state-owned ports, factories, various facilities and valuable land. But instead of being funneled to new investments, those revenues were used to repay debt and bridge deficits,” Oran told Al-Monitor. “Still, the total budget deficits in this 13-year period amounted to about 300 billion Turkish lira [$110 billion] and the state’s debt stock rose to 650 billion Turkish lira [$238 billion], a figure 2.5 times higher than in the previous 80 years, while the [overall] growth rate of 4.7% fell behind previous periods.”

The government is still turning a blind eye to the economic downturn. Having ruled Turkey for 13 years on its own, the AKP refuses to concede defeat, pondering a fresh arm wrestling with the opposition instead of seeking a broad-based coalition government to calm the markets as soon as possible.



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