Will the Pakistan army be defeated in Waziristan?

[Bengal_Tiger]

The Pakistan army has announced an operation against militants in north Waziristan.

This is a very big operation and Pakistanis as a whole are united behind the army, with the notable exception of Imran Khan's PTI it seems. One senior member of the PTI has already criticized this operation, though Imran Khan has not said anything yet.

Will the Pakistan army be defeated in Waziristan?

..or...


Will the Pakistan army win and expel the militants as they did in Swat a few years ealier?

[Adam]

I doubt they'll be defeated, its hard to defeat an army that blitzes everything killing civilian and militant alike. TTP will just move into Afghanistan and whether or not they return depends on how much of a presence the army keeps after

[Bengal_Tiger]

I doubt they'll be defeated, its hard to defeat an army that blitzes everything killing civilian and militant alike. TTP will just move into Afghanistan and whether or not they return depends on how much of a presence the army keeps after

Your comment is the most logical option.

Pakistan army = nuclear army, half a million strong.

Taliban = few thousand militants.

So Pakistan army > Taliban.

However history has shown us that the world doesn't always follow logical probability.

If the TTP flee in to Afghanistan then that is "mission accomplished" for the Pakistan army as they have "evicted" these undesirables from "Pakistani territory".

How they will deal with the thousands and thousands of refugees in addition to the 2 million Pashtun refugees (Pakistanis) already around is another question, not that they or Pakistanis in general (including many "Pathans" in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) will care.

Once again what you said is sensible and is what should (logically) happen but who knows what will actually happen.

[Bengal_Tiger]

So far 4 votes for Pakistan army winning and 1 for other.

No one has said the TTP can defeat the Pakistan army.

I think this makes sense logically (not saying this is what will happen).

1. The Pakistan Army (PA) defeated and kicked out the TTP in Swat a few years ago.

- The Sri Lankans defeated the LTTE a few years ago after decades of conflict but in a way which some say bordered on, or was actual genocide with the alleged massacres of tens of thousands (if not more) Tamil civilians.

- The Algerians have more or less defeated their Jihadist insurgency with 100,000 deaths, more than in Pakistan.

4. The question is what will happen if the militants flee to Afghanistan as Mullah Fazlullah and his fighters did when they were kicked out of Swat?

Will they use Kunar, Khost and other areas as a base for operations against Pakistan?

If so then the purpose of this operation to stop terrorist attacks would have failed.

Will the PA go in to Afghanistan?

What will be the reaction of the Afghan army (ANA)?

In the past few years the militants have definitely got weaker and suffered defeats e.g. Swat, and at this rate are heading for defeat, but if they simply re-locate a few miles west to Afghanistan and use that as their new HQ, then what has been achieved?


In the short-term the Pakistan army might crush the militants, but in the long term can the Pakistani state deal with the fundamental problems of Pakistan?

- A Punjabi-centric state which even Imran Khan now says is dominated by Punjab and non-Punjabis (other provinces) are treated unfairly.

- Huge backwards religious extremists where even Sunni sects hate each other in a way that Arabs don't (Punjabis are far more extreme in religious fundamentalism and sectarianism than Arabs) e.g. Deobandi v Barelvi.

- Racism against Indian-origin Mohajirs in Karachi and elsewhere for being "darker" and thus "inferior", thus causing problems in Pakistan's economic capital.

- Feudalism, where feudals in Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab dominate politics and keep feudal peasants as slaves essentially.

Sooner or later if Pakistan does not address these problems the country will explode/implode as tyranny never continues for ever.

Pakistani nationalists can worship the army as an exercise in phallic pride and denounce all who oppose them as "traitors" but that can only continue for so long.

[khushal]

The pak army can not be defeated militarily by the TTP, but politically is another question. The pak army can take and occupy ground like the Americans in Afghanistan, but the question is can they keep it.

The ttp will resort to guerrilla style attacks on army posts and bombings here and there in the big cities and it will become very expensive for the pak military to stay there just like it did for the Americans and the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The best option for the pak military is to go back to pre 2001 status quo. Withdraw from FATA in exchange for the TTP leaving the big cities alone. Why spend resources on something that is a money pit with no return. It does not make economic sense.

[Toramana]

I think the situation will become like what we see on the Syria-Iraq border, i.e., battle hardened militants with a Pan-Islamist agenda receiving funds and man-power support from Muslims around the world with the complex geopolitics of the region will become a prolonged conflict. There will be impact on the rest of Pakistan as well.

Tamil as well as other insurgencies were pretty local affairs.

[Bengal_Tiger]

I think the situation will become like what we see on the Syria-Iraq border, i.e., battle hardened militants with a Pan-Islamist agenda receiving funds and man-power support from Muslims around the world with the complex geopolitics of the region will become a prolonged conflict. There will be impact on the rest of Pakistan as well.

Tamil as well as other insurgencies were pretty local affairs.

You might be right.

If that is the case it might be something which Punjabi-dominated Pakistan might be able to live with, in the same way Turkey's Kurdistan war was restricted to the south-east and did not impact the country in terms of economic development. The biggest way it impacted Turkey was the migration of millions of Kurds to western Turkey after the destruction of 3,000 Kurdish villages.

However for the Punjabis of Lahore, Rawalpindi, etc if there is a few "Pathans" and "Pathan villages" being killed and destroyed in the wild north-west who cares as long as "Pakistan proper" (Punjab + to a lesser degree Karachi) is fine.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

Defeat?

As per source's It will be a 3 week operation as per the initial suppose strength of only 1500 militants against the speculated 10k strength.

It will also depend whether they will be joined by anyone from Afghanistan or not.

Also as in swat,army will have to establish permanent bases with strict border security watch such as they have in the bajaur region.

TTP initially was even stronger the ISIS or Afghanistan taliban but they could not take over even 20-25% of FATA let alone kpk or the rest of Pakistan because they never enjoyed the support ISIS has from 30% of sunni iraqi or the Afghanistan talibans has from 40% of pashtuns in Afghanistan.

After baitullah death in 2009,Factions in TTP started kidnapping and robbery as claimed by the sajna group which further disturbed its image even within its own local supporter.

today in 2014,They are irked by raising flag of Pakistan by the locals within NW main town miranshah.

My view of After operation situation

Only the ttp elite might flee to Afghanistan with the rest of their militants butchered to death.

Within few years ttp will again gain numbers and starts penetrating into Pakistan again but with tough security as india has with Pakistan over LOC.Barely any terrorist will escape into the FATA or than a new province called "Qablistan".

After NW operation.A similar scale operation should be launched in karachi and southern punjab.

[Karachi]

is this the first operation in north wazristan? other then Swat, have the other operations been successful?

[Shehbaz Khan]

The only way this operation can be successful is that let the civilians leave that area, accommodate them for a month near Pekhawar and ask them to put down their weapons if they don't, let your tanks blow fire. Kill them, crush them! And after that develop the area, seal the border deploy law enforcement agencies on the border within Waziristan. Create Job opportunities and don't quit Waiziristan for atleast 10 years and most of all kill the mindset, for you can't defeat an enemy who looks into the barrel of your gun and sees paradise.

If we can't do it, any sort of operation in Waziristan will be useless.

[Da Bannu Mazdigar]

is this the first operation in north wazristan? other then Swat, have the other operations been successful?

All the major operation were a success.Except that in tirah valley operation the army recieved highest number of casaulties

[Bengal_Tiger]

I would have to say the Pakistani army has essentially won in Waziristan.

I wouldn't say this is the end of the war but they have won in Waziristan just like they won in Swat.

[tripledouble]

Salute to General Raheel, he was a commander we needed in wartime, there are calls for him too be made Field Marshall, he will be remembered in Pakistan's history as a true warrior and one of greatest sons of the soil with the likes of Imran Khan,Iqbal,Afridi,Jinnah,Minhas,Alam,Bhatti,AQ Khan,Feroz Khan,Lalak Jan,Abdus Salam and more