Will China prevent the Taliban from regaining power

[Bengal_Tiger]

1. Yes, China will use its influence to stop the Taliban from regaining power in Afghanistan (i.e. taking Kabul and other major urban centres).


2. No, China has neither the sufficient influence/strength or interest to do so.


3. Something else.



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China is the world's biggest country (population wise), and soon to have the biggest economy on earth.

It is the only nuclear superpower with a direct border with Afghanistan unlike Russia, the USA or India.

China sees a stable Afghanistan, one free from radical fundamentalists, as an important national security need. Particularly given that Afghanistan is next door to China's southern Xianjiang region, which has its southern half mainly inhabited by Turkic Uighurs.

China is growing in power and has even opened its first military base in Africa.





China also has a lot of influence over Pakistan whom it provides a lot of financial and military support to.

In return of all the massive support that China has provided Pakistan for decades it would seem very little in return to ask Pakistan to not support radical Taliban forces who are allied to Uighur extremists.

So can China play a critical role in determining who (or who doesn't) rule Kabul and thus the future of their eastern neighbour?

[Bengal_Tiger]

2012:

In a sign of China’s growing interest in neighboring Afghanistan after the departure of the United States and NATO-led forces, President Hu Jintao met the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, in the Great Hall of the People on Friday and announced a new strategic partnership between the two countries...

China is trying to ensure that a Muslim separatist group in a western Chinese region does not benefit from the Taliban when Western forces leave Afghanistan...

China’s major worry is the prospect of a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan lending sanctuary to the separatist group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, led by ethnic Uighurs, a Turkic-speaking, largely Muslim people in the autonomous western region of Xinjiang. The group wants a breakaway homeland in Xinjiang.

In official statements, the Chinese government refrains from specifying the threat of Afghanistan’s harboring Uighur separatists, but an orderly transfer of power that would stop short of a Taliban takeover appears to be of uppermost importance for China....


China has already put down investment stakes in mineral-rich Afghanistan, signing an oil and gas deal late last year, and beginning development at a copper mine four years ago.

But from the discussions between the United States and China, it was clear that China would not play any significant security role inside Afghanistan, a decision consistent with its noninterference policies abroad, the American officials and analysts say.

The Chinese government has refused to contribute to a $4.1 billion fund for sustaining the Afghan Army after 2014, but has offered to train a small number of Afghan soldiers, particularly in antiterrorism techniques...

Looking toward the uncertainties of post-2014 Afghanistan, China has already established some forms of communication with elements of the Taliban through the channels of the Pakistani military, said Sajjan Gohel, the international security director of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London-based group.

“Beijing wants guarantees that the Taliban will not give sanctuary or support to the Uighur terrorists should they develop an open presence in Afghanistan after the troop handover,” Mr. Gohel said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/09/world/asia/china-signals-interest-in-afghanistan-after-nato-leaves.html?_r=0

I haven't voted yet, but I will see what other people say. However I am inclined to "NO".

Why?

The Chinese generally do not like to interfere too much in other countries.

I suspect they will try to work with the Pakistanis that in case the Pakistanis help the Taliban to regain power the Pakistani-backed Taliban will not help Uighur separatists.

However Pakistan itself may work with Abdullah Abdullah if he becomes next Afghan leader instead of putting their Taliban proxies back in power.

[Karachi]

I hope whatever the outcome is, it brings peace to afghanistan and the region. Pakistanis and others really need stop playing games in afghanistan