Chinese firm under U.S. sanctions wins Turkish missile deal

[Shah-i-Kot]

Chinese firm under U.S. sanctions wins Turkish missile deal



By Ece Toksabay ISTANBUL | Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:03am EDT

(Reuters) - NATO member Turkey announced on Thursday it had agreed a $4 billion co-production deal for a long-range air and missile defense system with a Chinese firm hit by U.S. sanctions, rejecting rival bids from Russian, U.S. and European firms.
The decision to take the FD-2000 from China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) underlined the growing strength of China's defense industry as well as Beijing's political interest in the Middle East and Turkey's increasingly independent line towards Western partners.
Some Western defense analysts said they were surprised by the choice of the Chinese system, having expected the contract to go to the U.S. Raytheon Co company, which builds the Patriot missile, or the Franco/Italian Eurosam SAMP/T.
The U.S., Germany and the Netherlands each sent two Patriot batteries and up to 400 soldiers to operate them to south-eastern Turkey early this year after Ankara asked NATO for help with air defenses against possible missile attack from Syria.
Certainly the use of a Chinese rather than a Western system by Turkey would pose questions of compatibility and security for the North Atlantic Alliance.
"You need to be able to link those missiles to NATO C2 (command and control)," one NATO diplomat in Brussels said. "I think it is going to raise difficulties."
Christina Lin, a former U.S. official and now fellow at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington DC. described the Turkish decision, announced by the Defense Ministry in Ankara, as a "wake-up call" for Western allies.
"China is looking to get a lot more involved in the Middle East and it is being increasingly accepted there," she said. "Turkey is increasingly frustrated with the EU and has made it clear that it is pivoting towards the east as well."
In February, the United States announced sanctions on CPMIEC for violations of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act.
It did not say precisely what CPMIEC had done, but Washington has penalized the company before. In 2003, Washington said it was extending sanctions on the firm for arms sales to Iran. It was unclear when those measures were first imposed.
Turkish analysts said they believed Ankara had chosen its Chinese partner for technological reasons as well as a lower price.
"Turkey's NATO allies are distanced to the idea of co-production and technological transfer," Atilla Sandikli, the chairman of think-tank Bilgesam and former high-level officer in the Turkish army, said.
"But the Chinese firm states the opposite. I think Turkey's choice is a message to its NATO allies in this sense."
CPMIEC was not immediately available for comment.
NATO STANDARDISATION
Turkey has long been the United States' closest ally in the Middle Eastern region, bordering during the Cold War on the Soviet Union. The U.S. military exercised great influence over a Turkish military that strongly influenced domestic politics.
Under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, elected in 2002, the role of the Turkish military in politics has been curbed. Political and military relations between Ankara and Washington, while still close, play a less central role and this could be reflected in procurement policy.
Nick de Larrinaga, Europe Editor of IHS Jane's Defense Weekly, said the Chinese bid was long understood to have 'massively undercut other bidders'. He said Western competitors were also offering wide involvement for Turkish industry.
"The decision...is undoubtedly a surprise," he said.
"Meanwhile IHS Jane's understood that the Franco/Italian Eurosam SAMP/T was preferred by many in the Turkish Armed Forces from a capability point of view...although it was also believed to be the most expensive of all the bids."
PATRIOTS
The winning Chinese FD-2000 system beat the Patriot, the Russian S-400 and the French-Italian Eurosam Samp-T.
Raytheon, which builds the Patriot, said it had been informed about the Turkish decision and hoped to get a briefing soon. It said there were 200 Patriot units deployed in 12 countries, including Turkey.
"NATO has long supported the system, deploying Patriots in five aligned countries and, in 2012, providing a requested Patriot deployment to Turkey. Given this strong performance, we hope to have an opportunity to debrief and learn more about this decision," Raytheon spokesman Mike Doble said.
CPMIEC does not make missiles itself. The two main manufacturers are China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp (CASC) and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp (CASIC). CASC makes intercontinental ballistic missiles, while CASIC focuses on short- and intermediate-range rockets.
After decades of steep military spending increases and cash injections into local contractors, experts say some Chinese-made equipment is now comparable to Russian or Western weaponry.
China last year became the world's fifth-biggest arms supplier with 5 percent of the market, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Pakistan was its biggest buyer.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/27/us-turkey-china-defence-idUSBRE98Q0SC20130927

[Shah-i-Kot]

Turkey goes for Chinese take-away defense
By Peter Lee

On September 26, 2013, Turkey made the rather eyebrow-raising decision to put its long range missile defense eggs in a Chinese basket, announcing it had awarded a US$3 billion contract to the People's Republic of China for its truck-mounted "shoot and scoot" FD-2000 system.

The Chinese FD-2000 is based on the Hong Qi missile, which has been around since the 1990s. The FD-2000 is an export version of the HQ-9 that appeared in 2009 and is marketed as a next-generation improvement on the Russian S-300 system, but whose fire control radar looks more like the radar matching US-based Raytheon's Patriot missile system (with the implication that the



PRC filched the technology, maybe with some help from Israel). [1]

Defense correspondent Wendell Minick relayed the description of the FD-2000 that China provided at a 2010 Asian arms show:

It can target cruise missiles (7-24 km), air-to-ground missiles (7-50 km), aircraft (7-125 km), precision-guided bombs and tactical ballistic missiles (7-25 km). "FD-2000 is mainly provided for air force and air defense force for asset air defense to protect core political, military and economic targets," according to the brochure of China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEC), the manufacturer of the system. It can also coordinate with other air defense systems to "form a multi-layer air defense system for regional air defense." [2]

Turkey is procuring 12 of these systems (it had originally requested 20 Patriot systems when Syria heated up and got six for a year, since renewed).

The FD-2000 looks great on paper. However, it appears to be untested in combat - and even the Patriot system is apparently not effective against cruise missiles, implying that the Chinese system isn't going to do any better. Political issues aside - and there were a lot of political issues - the deciding factor for Turkey was probably low price, and China's willingness to do co-production and technology transfer.

Maybe the Chinese government are eager to put the FD-2000 in some foreign hot spot in the hopes of getting some real, battlefield data and make some upgrades before the cruise missiles start flying toward Beijing. [3]

Press reports from June already implied that Turkey was leaning toward the Chinese system. However, Turkey's announcement in the midst of the Syrian chemical weapons negotiations still looks like a slap at the United States, which makes the Patriot missile system, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is now manning six Patriot batteries at present installed in Turkey. [4]
.

Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan certainly is feeling piqued at the US-led detour into chemical weapon destruction in Syria, instead of support for the quick regime collapse that he has been craving ever since he made the precipitous and rather premature decision to call for the fall of Bashar al-Assad in the summer of 2011.

Turkey's aggressive regime-change posture has always carried with it the risk of Syrian chemical weapon retaliation, as a Xinhua piece pointed out in early November:

Turkey's army build up on its Syrian border continued, with some 400 chemical, biological and nuclear units arriving in the region as a measure against a possible chemical threat.

While some analysts cited NATO anti-missile defense systems deployed in Turkey, others doubted their effectiveness."The citizens in the southern border have not been given adequate equipment to protect themselves, especially from chemical attacks," said Turkish academic Soli Ozel. "Let's say that one battery misses one missile ... The smart missile may not be so smart." [5]

Suspicion of the Patriot's missile-busting awesomeness seems to be endemic in Turkey:

Sait Yilmaz, an expert, told Turkish daily Today's Zaman that Patriots - the anti-ballistic missiles provided by NATO - would not be effective against short-distance missiles. He said that if Syria fired a large number of missiles on Turkish targets at such a short distance, most would go uncountered. [6]

The general consensus seems to be that if Syria unleashed a barrage of short-range missiles the Patriot missiles would not do a sensational job; indeed, the suspicion is that the six batteries are in Turkey merely as a symbolic show of NATO support for Turkey. Presumably, the protection provided by the FD-2000 would also be less than 100%. Syria, however, is something of a sideshow in Turkey's missile defense game.

Turkey's decision to procure these missile defense assets goes back to 2011 and was part of Turkey's ambiguous dance with the United States, NATO, and Iran and the threat of Iran's long range missiles.

In 2011, the Obama administration announced that Turkey's participation in the US/NATO integrated ballistic missile defense system would be limited to hosting a radar station at Malatya - without any NATO provided missile defense. Unsurprisingly, Iran announced that a NATO radar station in Turkey would have a bull's eye painted on it and Turkey was left to its own devices to deal with the Iranian threat. Therefore, the Turkish government embarked on its procurement odyssey seeking a defense against long range (ie Iranian) missiles, which ended with the announcement of the purchase of the FD-2000.

It can be assumed that Turkey, eager to maintain its regional clout as an independent security actor, made the conscious decision to stick a finger in Iran's eye by siding with the US and NATO on the radar (while stipulating that Iran must never be formally identified as the radar's target), and to try to manage Iran's extreme displeasure by deploying a more Turkish, non-NATO, presumably less confrontationally managed missile defense system. [7]

Performance questions aside, the Syrian trauma has reinforced Turkey's desire for a non-NATO missile defense system. As an analysis on the Carnegie Europe website pointed out, Turkey's feelings of being slighted by the US and NATO on Syria are no accident and translate rather directly into an independent defense policy:

In a little-known episode of NATO history, the only Article 5 [collective self defense] crisis-management exercise ever conducted by the organization ended in disagreement. Coincidentally, the scenario for the exercise, held in 2002, was designed to simulate an Article 5 response to a chemical weapons attack by Amberland, a hypothetical southern neighbor of Turkey.

Amberland was known to have several Scud missiles, tipped with biological and chemical warheads, aimed at Turkey. During the seven-day exercise, the United States and Turkey reportedly took a more hardline stance in support of preemptive strikes, while Germany, France, and Spain preferred to defuse the crisis through more political means.

The exercise apparently ended with NATO members disagreeing about the prospective NATO response before any attack was carried out or Article 5 was officially invoked. [8]

As Turkey sees it, in other words, maybe the danger on Iran is that NATO will go too far and embroil Turkey in a regional confrontation it does not desire; on Syria, the reality is that NATO doesn't go far enough, and is leaving Turkey vulnerable to Syrian retaliation for Erdogan's perilous overreach on Syrian regime change.

Even though the FD-2000 is not well-suited to coping with a Syrian short range missile threat, the missile defense batteries could also assist in enforcing a no-fly zone at the Syrian-Turkish border, something that NATO has specifically ruled out for its Patriot batteries in Turkey (which are for the most part safely out of range of the Syrian border and whose main purpose seems to be protecting NATO and US military installations) without an enabling UN resolution or suitable coalition.

Turkey would probably be happy to have this independent capability in its security/Syria destabilization portfolio though, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars per pop, it will probably think twice about a shooting spree of FD-2000 missiles at Syrian planes.Erdogan is also unhappy with Russia's frontline support of the Syrian regime militarily as well as diplomatically, especially compared with Chinese discretion, and that's probably why he didn't choose the S-300 option.

Iran, which has experienced the headaches of politicized supply (or, to be more accurate, non-supply) of its S-300 missile defense system by Russia, is also reportedly considering the FD-2000 (its manufacturer, CPMIEC, was sanctioned by the United States for unspecified Iran-related transgressions presumably relating to Chinese willingness to transfer missile technology) ... but maybe Iran is thinking long and hard about the rumor that the fire control radar technology passed through Israel's hands on its way to China.

Apparently a Western marketing point steering Turkey away from Russian or Chinese systems was the argument that inoperability with NATO equipment would be a problem and the missile defense batteries would be sitting there without vital linkages to NATO theater-scale radar and missile-killing capabilities (though Greece, with an inventory of Russian S-300s, somehow managed to make do).

Well, maybe that's the point. Erdogan is implying he doesn't want to rely on the United States or NATO - which might demand Turkey's diplomatic and security subservience and NATO control over Turkish missile defense assets - to keep his missile defense system working, while exposing both missile sites and the radar facility to Iranian NATO-related wrath.

Perhaps Erdogan has abandoned his dreams of full partnership with NATO and the European Union, and doesn't see Turkey as Europe's front line state in the Middle East. He wants his own, independent missile defense capability to protect distinctly Turkish targets and manage his relationships with Iran and Syria on a more bilateral basis.

And as far as the People's Republic of China is concerned, it can mollify Iran with the observation that China, by stepping up and providing the system in place of Raytheon or a French/Italian consortium, was preventing the full integration of Turkey into the NATO missile defense bloc.

In which case, Turkey's name on the NATO membership rolls should include an asterisk denoting its special status. Or maybe it should be a red star.

http://atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-01-270913.html

[Shah-i-Kot]

Turkey-China missile deal angers U.S.
Turkey has infuriated the U.S. and possibly the other members of NATO by confirming a long-range missile deal with a sanctioned Chinese weapons firm, in what appears to be a message to the west.




World Bulletin / News Desk
Turkey favored the Chinese offer to co-produce long-range air and defense missiles, which is believed to be worth around $4 billion, over other offers from Russia, the us and a number of european companies. The defense system project has been nicknamed T-Loramids and will be completed over a period of six years.
China’s Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEC), which has been sanctioned by the us, will develop the F-2000 missiles with Turkey, in a move that will surely frustrate relations between Turkey and its long-term ally the us. This counters a deal made between Turkey and NATO last year, which saw the delivery of ground-to-air Patriot missiles to Turkey’s south-eastern border, along with 400 us, German and Dutch troops. It is likely that NATO may see the developing partnership between Turkey and China as a threat to their organization.
The us sanctioned the Chinese firm under the Nonproliferation Act in February for their co-operation with Iran, North Korea and the Syrian government. Although some are playing down the decision as being one made purely for economic and technological reasons, other commentators believe that Turkey is deliberately demonstrating its anger with the west for its attitude towards Turkey. Constant obstacles and objections obstructing Turkey’s eu membership, as well as the recognition of the so called Armenian genocide are just two of many factors that have been pushing Turkey to seek new allies in the east as of late. Former us official Christina Lin described the move as ‘a wakeup call for the west.’
Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has openly expressed Turkey’s interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at a time when talks over Turkish accession to the eu appear to be at a stalemate.
The growing Chinese weapons industry is now producing weaponry as technologically developed as Russia and the us. It has become the fifth biggest seller on weapons, accounting for 5% of the market. Turkey joins Pakistan, China’s number one weapons customer, as China continues to increase its influence in the Middle-East to the expense of us and western interests.
Quoting us sources, a defense industry source in Ankara stated: ‘The us is very, very unhappy about Turkey's selection of China [as their provider]. us President Barack Obama has twice taken up the missile issue with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during their face-to-face meetings and reminded the Turkish prime minister about the interoperability problems that … a non-NATO system will create.’ Already it is being said that NATO would not integrate the Chinese missile system with its own Patriot missiles along Turkey’s border with Syria.


Turkey-China missile deal angers U.S. | Diplomacy | World Bulletin