Central Asian countries ---economic projection---2017

[Toramana]

1. Afghanistan 28 billion dollars
2. Kazakistan 350 billion dollars
3. Kyrgyzistan 9 billion dollars
4. Tajakistan 10 billion dollars
5. Turkmanistan 57 billion dollars
5. Uzbakistan 80 billion dollars

Source: IMF estimate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...e_GDP_(nominal)

[Toramana]

I am surprised that Central Asian countries have relatively smaller economies (and smaller populations as well). For example, Tajakistan will have 10 billion dollars economy in 2017 and Afghan economy will be 3 times larger than Tajak economy in 2017.

That is why on my last visit to KPK, one person was insisting there is not much to gain from Central Asian countries in terms of economy apart from hydro-carbon resources.

[Khostai]

Kazachstan have pretty big eco, and by the way Tajikstan have something like 7 milion peopel so I would not expect that big of economy from them plus there counrty is smaller that Afghanistan.
But I wonder how they calcuate Afghan economy in 2017?? Now its 20 so after 5 years we will only gain 7 billion.....

[Toramana]

Kazachstan have pretty big eco, and by the way Tajikstan have something like 7 milion peopel so I would not expect that big of economy from them plus there counrty is smaller that Afghanistan.
But I wonder how they calcuate Afghan economy in 2017?? Now its 20 so after 5 years we will only gain 7 billion.....

Yes, that is correct. That is why I mentioned in the parenthesis, "and smaller populations" as well. But as I said before, somehow, population size is linked to economic growth as well---Larger skilled and educated population means higher economic growth.

Apart from that, coastline is also an important thing ---somehow, it is difficult to expand industrial and other infra-structures inland to the more landlocked regions. It seems to be more costly as well in terms of transportation of raw material to and finished products from the remote and landlocked/inland industrial centers.

As for calculating economy, I think economist do it based on current trends and by applying extrapolation/interpolation, etc.

I think it may be more or less than 7 billions. These are just guesses although pretty realistic. For example, for Pakistan, they predicted (in 2006) a GDP of 200 billion dollars in 2015 but that (i.e., 2011 billion dollars) happened in 2011-2012, which isn't what was exactly predicted but is still pretty close.

[Karachi]

economic size always depends on the population size, all these countries have small populations as compared to lets say pakistan or india. pakistan is 170 million people and India is over a billion people

[Karachi]

But I think central asia countries have great future, they have huge amounts of resources and small populations, they could be the next (gulf countries)

[Toramana]

But I think central asia countries have great future, they have huge amounts of resources and small populations, they could be the next (gulf countries)

I don't think so---Gulf countries have a huge coastline and very strategic location that makes transportation of hydrocarbon resources and trade more profitable. Central Asian countries lack that.