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Europe heading into post-Cold War frost
By M K Bhadrakumar – December 8, 2011
International events are sometimes like Macbeth’s banquet table in William Shakespeare’s play. The most important presence could be the ‘unseen’ presence. The ghost of Banquo seems to hover around the conference table where the NATO FMs are due to sit across with their Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Brussels in a few hours from now.
I can’t avoid repeating the cliche, and would say the post-Cold War ‘tranquility’ in European security hangs by a slender thread - and with that, of course, a host of issues concerning the world order. Oh, what a momentous time for our PM Manmohan Singh to visit Moscow! Indira Gandhi would have relished every moment of it. But that was the era of non-alignment and Indira Gandhi had the advantage of having acquired glimpses of world history, while Manmohan Singh is a very focused and purposive statesman whose thinking is uncluttered by visions.
The main agenda of the FMs’ meet is the US’s missile defence [ABM] deployments in Europe under the NATO rubric. Russia has been getting restless that US is ignoring its protestations and going ahead with the deployments. On Wednesday, Russian Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov raised his voice at a Moscow special briefing for foreign military attaches. He warned that ABM deployments would “aggravate” Russia’s ties with Europe and impact the stability of Europe.
Simultaneously in Brussels, following a NATO FMs’ conference on Wednesday, secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen was dismissive about Russia’s warning that it would react to the ABM deployments. AFR’s message is that out there in Brussels, they aren’t bothered about what Russia thinks, since ABM is a strategic decision by NATO.
Now, this can be taken as sparring endemic to the commencement of any delicate diplomatic tango. But it isn’t. Woven into it are the unseen shadows of the Middle East. NATO FMs have decided to ‘absorb’ post-Gaddafi Libya as a ‘partner’ and the alliance is gearing for some fresh action by turning to the next ‘hotspot’, which is Syria. Russia senses what is going on - US is ‘liberating’ political Islam wherever the new forces are willing to play footsie with Washington’s regional strategies. In short, it is ‘remaking’ the Middle East to perpetuate its hegemony in the new conditions of ‘democracy’. By the way, step-by-step, NATO has arrived in the Persian Gulf, isn’t it?
Another ‘unseen presence’ in Brussels today is the issue of the US-NATO military bases in Afghanistan, which Russia opposes. It is again a ‘cat-and-mouse’ game. The US-NATO maintain that the long term military presence in Afghanistan is needed for fighting terrorism. But it is a matter of time before ABM gets deployed in the US-NATO bases in Afghanistan, which is a great observation post to monitor 5 countries with missile capabilities that can threaten western interests - Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran. Hamid Karzai says he won’t allow Afghan soil to be used against neighboring countries. But his opinion doesn’t count. So, Russia now proposes to discuss ABM with China and Iran.
Hovering behind all these is the mother of all ‘unseen presences’ - Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin. The West sizes up that Russia will be assertive and the restructuring of the world order in its terms will have to be rammed through Russia’s throat if need be.
Now, while on the job as a diplomat I learned my own hard way that it is often possible to measure the temperature of seething friction in big-power equations in world politics by listening to some real small fellows who may usually escape notice in the cocktail circuit, or even as habitating the Mother Earth. One such fellow is the Czech Republic. (Norway is another.) They can be depended upon to speak the master’s voice quite faithfully and listening to them is as good as listening to the master.
So, when the Czech FM Karel Schwarzenberg criticises last Sunday’s parliamentary election in Russia, make no mistake, he heard something from Hillary Clinton (who, incidentally, spoke at the close-door meeting in Brussels yesterday.) Especially when KS professes his opinion on the eve of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Prague. Things are getting real rough, aren’t they?
Posted in Diplomacy.
Tagged with ABM, India NATO, India-Russia, Libya, NATO in Middle East, Russia-India, Syria, US military bases in Afghanistan, Vladimir Putin.
By M K Bhadrakumar – December 8, 2011
International events are sometimes like Macbeth’s banquet table in William Shakespeare’s play. The most important presence could be the ‘unseen’ presence. The ghost of Banquo seems to hover around the conference table where the NATO FMs are due to sit across with their Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Brussels in a few hours from now.
I can’t avoid repeating the cliche, and would say the post-Cold War ‘tranquility’ in European security hangs by a slender thread - and with that, of course, a host of issues concerning the world order. Oh, what a momentous time for our PM Manmohan Singh to visit Moscow! Indira Gandhi would have relished every moment of it. But that was the era of non-alignment and Indira Gandhi had the advantage of having acquired glimpses of world history, while Manmohan Singh is a very focused and purposive statesman whose thinking is uncluttered by visions.
The main agenda of the FMs’ meet is the US’s missile defence [ABM] deployments in Europe under the NATO rubric. Russia has been getting restless that US is ignoring its protestations and going ahead with the deployments. On Wednesday, Russian Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov raised his voice at a Moscow special briefing for foreign military attaches. He warned that ABM deployments would “aggravate” Russia’s ties with Europe and impact the stability of Europe.
Simultaneously in Brussels, following a NATO FMs’ conference on Wednesday, secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen was dismissive about Russia’s warning that it would react to the ABM deployments. AFR’s message is that out there in Brussels, they aren’t bothered about what Russia thinks, since ABM is a strategic decision by NATO.
Now, this can be taken as sparring endemic to the commencement of any delicate diplomatic tango. But it isn’t. Woven into it are the unseen shadows of the Middle East. NATO FMs have decided to ‘absorb’ post-Gaddafi Libya as a ‘partner’ and the alliance is gearing for some fresh action by turning to the next ‘hotspot’, which is Syria. Russia senses what is going on - US is ‘liberating’ political Islam wherever the new forces are willing to play footsie with Washington’s regional strategies. In short, it is ‘remaking’ the Middle East to perpetuate its hegemony in the new conditions of ‘democracy’. By the way, step-by-step, NATO has arrived in the Persian Gulf, isn’t it?
Another ‘unseen presence’ in Brussels today is the issue of the US-NATO military bases in Afghanistan, which Russia opposes. It is again a ‘cat-and-mouse’ game. The US-NATO maintain that the long term military presence in Afghanistan is needed for fighting terrorism. But it is a matter of time before ABM gets deployed in the US-NATO bases in Afghanistan, which is a great observation post to monitor 5 countries with missile capabilities that can threaten western interests - Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran. Hamid Karzai says he won’t allow Afghan soil to be used against neighboring countries. But his opinion doesn’t count. So, Russia now proposes to discuss ABM with China and Iran.
Hovering behind all these is the mother of all ‘unseen presences’ - Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin. The West sizes up that Russia will be assertive and the restructuring of the world order in its terms will have to be rammed through Russia’s throat if need be.
Now, while on the job as a diplomat I learned my own hard way that it is often possible to measure the temperature of seething friction in big-power equations in world politics by listening to some real small fellows who may usually escape notice in the cocktail circuit, or even as habitating the Mother Earth. One such fellow is the Czech Republic. (Norway is another.) They can be depended upon to speak the master’s voice quite faithfully and listening to them is as good as listening to the master.
So, when the Czech FM Karel Schwarzenberg criticises last Sunday’s parliamentary election in Russia, make no mistake, he heard something from Hillary Clinton (who, incidentally, spoke at the close-door meeting in Brussels yesterday.) Especially when KS professes his opinion on the eve of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Prague. Things are getting real rough, aren’t they?
Posted in Diplomacy.
Tagged with ABM, India NATO, India-Russia, Libya, NATO in Middle East, Russia-India, Syria, US military bases in Afghanistan, Vladimir Putin.
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