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Didi's antics overshadow PM's Bangladesh visit

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  • Didi's antics overshadow PM's Bangladesh visit

    Didi's antics overshadow PM's Bangladesh visit - The Times of India

    Indrani Bagchi, TNN | Sep 7, 2011

    DHAKA: It was a summit that yielded much for both Bangladesh and India, but will forever be shadowed by the failure to get a pact on sharing river waters. To the extent that Manmohan Singh and Sheikh Hasina intended this summit to signal a "paradigm shift" in bilateral ties, the disappointment in Bangladesh over Mamata Banerjee's last-minute tantrum means this is still a while away.

    Mamata's sudden Sunday refusal to accompany the PM to Dhaka threw the Bangladeshis, but even they did not believe that India would not finally get its act together. Bangladesh foreign minister Dipu Moni even went on record on Monday to say that she had prepared the documents for signing on Tuesday. As it became clear that Mamata was not going to relent, the sense of disappointment and anger sweeping Dhaka was acute. The fallout of the Teesta fiasco was that an exchange of letters for transit from Chittagong and Mongla ports also had to be shelved. Rajeet Mitter, India's high commissioner to Dhaka, was called in by foreign secretary Mijarul Quayes this afternoon to see if a last minute deal could be reached on Teesta, as well as conveying Bangladesh's deep unhappiness with the Teesta turnaround by Mamata. Foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai highlighted the positives from the summit, and there were many. No one can discount the importance of the land boundary agreement which, for the first time, gives India a fully demarcated longest boundary with any of its neighbours. That's huge, because it addresses a historical leftover that had begun to resemble suppurating sores.

    Bangladesh has got enormous satisfaction on the trade front as India lifted tariffs on 46 textile lines from its sensitive list. This will go far in addressing Bangladesh's massive trade balance problem. India has already utilized $750 million of its $1 billion line of credit for infrastructure building here. Border management issues have been addressed, while integrated checkposts, border haats, connecting Bangladesh and Indian national grids for power signal greater integration than ever before. Good are already being sent to India through the Ashuganj port, the first step in transit arrangements for India.

    It should have been a real good news visit, and a signal to other neighbours that teaming up with India has real benefits. But India fell short at the last mile, because it could not rise about local politics when the bigger picture needed to be addressed.

    For Sheikh Hasina, who is the real architect of the turnaround in India-Bangladesh ties, the let-down on Teesta is greater, because this would have been sold to a hostile opposition and a hopeful nation that good relations with India make political and economic sense. The lack of a water pact could make her more vulnerable to opposition attacks. A Bangladesh journalist said, "we supported Mamata during her election. Is this how she treats us?" The sentiment was echoed at the top echelons of the Bangladesh foreign ministry, where officials could scarcely hide their disappointment.

    Addressing the formal banquet in the evening, Sheikh Hasina declared that an "understanding" had been reached with India on Teesta and Feni river waters. Analysts here said it could mean that she would find it difficult to climb down further on the amount of water Bangladesh could get from a future agreement. Since the Teesta agreement has been in the making for almost 20 months, Bangladeshis are finding it difficult to swallow Mamata's line that she was not consulted.

    Dressed in a blue-and-white jamdani, Sheikh Hasina broke protocol to greet Singh and his entourage at the Hazrat Shah Jalal airport as they landed in a special aircraft this morning. The unique affinity between Bangladesh and India was nowhere more evident than the fact that the national anthems of the two countries were authored by the same man - Rabindranath Tagore.

    But the absence of Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, was all too conspicuous as was the fact that the centrepiece of the Singh visit, a water sharing treaty on Teesta river would have to be put off for a later date. It only reinforced every negative perception that Bangladeshis harbour about Indians.Top level sources in the Indian government said this morning, "India and Bangladesh have to get into the habit of working with each other." From the Bangladesh point of view, it is India that failed to step up to the plate. En route to Dhaka, high level sources tried to put a positive spin on the failure to reach a water-sharing agreement, saying India would rather wait for a more acceptable water sharing agreement than rush through one now. "We want to make this a template for other water-sharing treaties with Bangladesh," they said. India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, though Teesta and Feni are the more important ones.

    For Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal though, the Teesta stand-off may actually be a political victory. She has been apprehensive that the CPM would capitalize on the agreement with protests in North Bengal, where she has recently struck political roots. In the short-term electoral politics of India, Mamata's stand will be appreciated by farmers in Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad and Jalpaiguri as standing by them, particularly as the Teesta Barrage Project promises to be ready by 2015.

    But ultimately, the ball remains in the prime minister's court. As before, the PMO has betrayed a political naivete that has cost the UPA government, and this time was no different. To have Mamata Banerjee as the face of a Teesta agreement should have been an easy conclusion, just as the 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty would never have been possible if Jyoti Basu was not leading the Indian charge. Like Basu, Mamata too has strong connections with the Bangladesh leadership, so this could have been given to her as a local political victory as long as the strategic objectives of Manmohan Singh's government was met. But that was not to be. And it leaves a bitter taste in the mouth in a country India desperately wants on its side.

  • #2
    The India-Bangladesh border is the 5th longest border in the world.

    Longer than the Russia-China, China-India, India-Pakistan borders.

    It is good for the 1 billion + people of India and the 160 million of Bangladesh that these border issues are being sorted out.

    India and China are military rivals and China occupies 25% of Kashmir which India believes is Indian occupied territory, despite this they know the world revolves around money. Money = power/opportunity and respect.

    India and China are doing huge amounts of trade and want to raise it to $60 billion though Beijing obviously has nukes pointed at India.

    Bangladesh is geographically the intermediary between these two giant Asian states and historical civilizations, and regional trade will benefit Bangladesh immensely.



    India and China dominated the world in trade prior to the Industrial revolution and Bengal was the richest part of India, so with history being a cyclical process both India, China and Bengal (Bangladesh and Pascim Bangla formerly known as "West Bengal") may return to their previous positions and glory.



    BRIC economies

    Bangladesh is between 1.3 billion + China and 1.2 billion + India so in between two giants that are 2.5 billion (around 40% of humanity).

    In the immediate region there is the Bangladeshi market of 160 million, Pascim Bangla (old name "West Bengal") 91 million, Nepal 29 million, 44 million of north east India which means a market of around 304 million people in the region, a market about as big as Russia and Brazil put together.



    The north-east of South Asia a region with a market of over 0.3 billion.

    India wants trade, trade, trade and this includes trade with regional superpower China and transit through Bangladesh is essential for this.

    This is a win-win for everybody.

    Both two major parties in Bangladesh, the ruling Awami League and the opposition right-wing (pro-Pakistan) BNP want friendly and beneficial relations with India. We should aim to be a peaceful region akin to the EU.



    For India to trade with China by land she needs a short cut through Bangladesh, as the Siliguri corridor is longer and more expensive, and also very narrow.



    Siliguri corridor marked by a red circle. India is almost cut off from her north-east except by a very slim piece of land called the "Siliguri corridor". For India to trade with China it is more sensible, quicker and cheaper to bypass this awkard corridor and go direct through Bangladesh. Indo-China-Bangladeshi trade is three way win-win for all three powers and the 2.7 billion people of these countries.
    Last edited by Bengal_Tiger; 09-07-2011, 02:27 PM.
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    • #3


      Guest post: Can Bangladesh boom as China quits low-end manufacturing?




      By Ifty Islam of Asian Tiger Capital Partners
      Asia emerged from the global economic crisis faster than the rest of the world and it is increasingly clear that the world’s centre of gravity is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
      Within the Asian Century debate, there has been a great deal of focus and analysis on the opportunities in “Chindia”. However, another important global macro dynamic is the relocation of low-cost production from southern China to other countries in Asia.
      Professor Gus Papanek, President of the Boston Institute for Developing Economies, stated in a seminar in Dhaka in 2010 that:
      “Bangladesh has a unique opportunity in the next year and a half or two years because it has the possibility of taking over part of the world market that China is going to abandon“.
      He went on to note that it has become increasingly clear that China is no longer competitive in many of the goods that Bangladesh could supply.
      China’s labour costs are rising, its pollution costs are increasing, its labour regulations are getting stricter, and it will be forced within the next six to nine months in my guess to revalue the renminbi. Its own currency will make it less competitive for labour- intensive goods.

      The social and political pressures to push Chinese wages higher, as evidenced by worker discontent in companies such as Foxconn in 2010, has made it increasingly uneconomic to keep producing the lowest margin products there.

      A country such as Bangladesh with one of the youngest (median age 23.1 years) and lowest cost labour forces in the region, is ideally positioned to benefit.

      Indeed evidence that Bangaldesh is already benefiting in 2011 from the “China Relocation Trade” is compelling given that Bangladesh’s total exports for FY 2010-11 (ended June 2011) rose to $22.92bn from $16.2bn the previous year, a jump of 41 per cent.
      This was a major factor behind the acceleration in overall GDP growth to 6.7 per cent. The biggest export sector remained ready-made garments. Knitwear exports alone were $9.5bn, up 47 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

      However, it is worth noting that China exported $185bn of garments and hence if Bangladesh can even capture 10 per cent of this then there is scope for a near further doubling of exports.


      Moreover, there is significant opportunity from other export sectors to grow far more rapidly – such as light engineering, shipbuilding, agro-processing, ICT, and pharmaceuticals. Samsung has just set up a Global Research Centre in Dhaka and there has been some speculation the Korean giant comglomerate is considering a $1bn+ manufacturing investment in the country.

      To fully take advantage of the China relocation trade Bangladeshi policymakers need to remain focused on solving the energy and infrastructure crisis, as well as provide more well defined industrial production/export zones with effective utility connections and sufficient land to large conglomerates that do indeed choose to relocate production there.

      However, in much the same way that the China price had more than a decade of influence on global dinsinflationary pressures, the shift of production away from China, and success in effectively positioning for it, will define who will be the next wave of Asian Tiger economies.

      Ifty Islam is managing partner at Asian Tiger Capital Partners in Dhaka.
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      • #4
        The above was from a Financial Times (of London) site.

        Here are some pictures of the Indo-Bangladesh meeting.











        Leader of the opposition (pro-Pakistani) BNP, Khaleda Zia with Dr M Singh.
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