US could move faster on Afghanistan troop withdrawals

[unknownprince]

US could move faster on Afghanistan troop withdrawals

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Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, today told fellow Nato ministers meeting in Brussels that there should be, "no rush for the exits" as the alliance draws down its forces in Afghanistan.
He was responding to concerns that Washington's imminent announcement of troop reduction plans could trigger a wave of pull outs.
Robert Gates addressed US troops on his latest trip to Afghanistan
Mr Gates has just returned from a final trip to Afghanistan (he is expected to step down from his job next month) and will soon put forward the official Pentagon view about how quickly and deeply the US can cut its force of nearly 94,000.
The issue has caused a lively debate in the White House, but it appears that the Obama Administration will move faster rather than slower when it announces the reductions set to start in July.
Some have characterised the current battle as one between generals and politicians. But it is more accurate to say it has played out between those who believe in a slow drawdown - notably Mr Gates and General David Petraeus, commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan - and those who argue that it should be speeded up.
The Afghan surge of more than 30,000 troops was announced in December 2009, following requests for more troops from the then commander General Stan McChrystal.
Calculations about how long this additional force should stay remained classified in his report, though I can reveal that Gen McChrystal envisaged a fast drawdown: 40,000 troops during the first year of the process.
Gen Petraeus on the other hand has always been much more circumspect about promising a rapid exit, and was last year heard to describe the July 2011 milestone, as 'an aspiration' rather than a firm target.
As his president's desire to start the process on time has hardened, Gen Petraeus conceded that something would have to begin this summer, and that it must involve significant units rather than just token ones.
Even last November, at Nato's summit in Lisbon, the Petraeus/Gates view held sway. The alliance shied away from specific proposals and insisted that the pull out would be 'conditions based' - in other words that it could be slowed down if there were reverses in the field.
Those who have followed this thinking were expecting the July announcement to start the withdrawal of units numbering 5-6,000. Steps beyond that would have followed the Lisbon formulation of being based upon progress on the ground.
Thinking in the White House has changed though. The evidence so far of the 'fighting season' that began in April is that Nato casualties will not be any lower this summer than last - despite the claims by many military leaders to have taken the initiative from the Taliban.
This has empowered sceptics in Washington (and indeed London) who believe that the military has had its chance, as has the government of President Hamid Karzai, and that it is now time to start cutting the cost of the whole venture. The killing of Osama bin Laden has boosted the 'faster rather than slower' lobby that includes Vice President Joe Biden.
It is clear that the strongest voices in favour of the cautious approach were those of Mr Gates and Gen Petraeus. President Obama's recent re-shuffle of national security leaders will though move CIA director Leon Panetta to run the Pentagon, and put Gen Petraeus in his stead, running the espionage agency in Langley. Thus at one stroke the two most cautious figures in Afghan strategy will have been removed from the drawdown equation.
Barring serious military reverses this summer, the scene is set for deep cuts in US forces over the next year. And if field commanders grumble, those who want out will always be able to say that they are only following the planning originally set out by Gen McChrystal.

[unknownprince]

Panetta backs significant Afghan withdrawal
By Olivier Knox (AFP) – 8 hours ago
WASHINGTON — US defense secretary nominee Leon Panetta said Thursday he backed pulling a significant number of troops from Afghanistan next month, in a break with outgoing Pentagon chief Robert Gates.
"I agree with the president's statement," Panetta told Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, a Democrat who had asked his view on President Barack Obama's pledge to announce a "significant" draw-down next month.
While Panetta, the current CIA chief, repeatedly praised Gates and sought to assure the panel that he would follow in his footsteps, the answer seemed to put the two at odds as Washington works to put Afghans in charge of their own security by 2014.
"We ought to do nothing that jeopardizes that path," said Panetta, who did not give a precise number of troops that should go and insisted troop levels would depend on the ebb and flow of a war now in its tenth year.
"This has to be a conditions-based withdrawal," he said. "I think based on what changes take place, then obviously the president and the secretary would have to make adjustments."
Panetta, 72, worked to reassure some lawmakers worried a hasty pullout could spell defeat in Afghanistan and others upset by what Republican Senator Susan Collins called "a never-ending mission" to stabilize the strife-torn country.
"If we lose in Afghanistan, we not only create another safe haven for Al-Qaeda and for their militant allies, but I think the world becomes a much more threatened place," he said.
"I can't agree with you more. I think that's absolutely dead-on," said Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who has repeatedly warned against a hasty withdrawal.
"To me, that seems to be a never-ending mission: I don't see how we get to a stable state in Afghanistan," Collins pressed Panetta. "So tell me how this ends. I just don't see how it ends."
Panetta acknowledged that there were "major questions" about whether Afghanistan would ever develop the resources, revenues and good governance needed to be stable, take over their own security, and quell Al-Qaeda.
"But I think if we stick with it, if we continue to provide help and assistance to them then I think there is going to be a point where Afghanistan can control its own future. We have to operate on that hope," he said.
Obama is due to announce soon how many troops will leave Afghanistan next month, while Panetta is on track to replace Gates July 1, and be succeeded as CIA chief by General David Petraeus, now the US commander in Afghanistan.
Gates, who has publicly called for a modest withdrawal from Afghanistan, told a NATO meeting in Brussels Thursday as part of a pre-retirement farewell tour that "there will be no rush to the exits on our part."
At the White House, spokesman Jay Carney played down the rift, saying "this is the president's decision" and underlining that Obama "has not made a decision. When he does, he will announce it."
The hearing came amid stiff and mounting US public opposition to the war in Afghanistan, where the United States has some 100,000 troops ten years after invading the country to capture or kill Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden.
Support for withdrawing US forces has spiked since elite US commandos killed bin Laden in his Pakistan hideout last month, with two out of five Americans favoring a complete pullout, according to a new survey by CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation.
Obama promised to enact a considerable withdrawal after ordering another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in December 2009 in a bid to duplicate the "surge" credited in Washington with helping to claw Iraq from the brink of civil war.
Some lawmakers have redoubled their calls for drawing down US forces levels in the face of cash-strapped Washington's home-front struggle with its sky-high deficit and ballooning national debt.
Moments before the hearing began, protestors from the anti-war group "Code Pink" urged Levin to commit to bringing home US troops and complained that people in his home state "are eating cat food while you fight a champagne war."
Later, Democratic Senator Ben Nelson said he was introducing legislation calling on Obama to set formal benchmarks for progress in the conflict and make regular reports.