Say good bye to American century and ni hao to the new super power

[akbarkhan]

The flag bearers of democracy who until yesterday were running an empire, those who claim to wage war against drugs but who until yesterday were engaged in opium wars and finally the Amherst who refused to kowtow is now bending over backwards - welcome to the corridors of a new global super power.

Gents, China has enthroned herself!

[drona]

[drona]

James six-pack,

Who the fck is comparing Indian economy with US one here ?

[roadrunner]

There's a lot of indians on this thread talking about china, india, and the USA. China is the rising superpower, the USA is yesterday's. What argument is there against this?

[akbarkhan]

Is this thread a joke or something?

To match the US by 2030, China would have to :

1) Have an economy near the size of the US economy. If the US grows by 3.5% a year for the next 25 years, it will be $30 trillion in 2006 dollars by then. Note that this is a modest assumption for the US, given the accelerating nature of economic growth, but also note that world GDP only grows about 4% a year, and this might at most be 5% a year by 2030. China, with an economy of $2.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 12% a year for the next 25 years straight to achieve the same size, which is already faster than its current 9-10% rate, if even that can be sustained for so long (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period). In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 25 years from 2005 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America's.

2) Create original consumer brands that are household names everywhere in the world (including in America), such as Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google. Europe and Japan have created a few brands in a few select industries, but China currently has none. Observing how many American brand logos have populated billboards and sporting events in developing nations over just the last 15 years, one might argue that US dominance has even increased by this measure.

3) Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur is evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them.

4) Have major universities that are household names, that many of the worlds top students aspire to attend. 17 of the world's top 20 universities are in the US. Until top students in Europe, India, and even the US are filling out an application for a Chinese university alongside those of Harvard, Stanford, MIT, or Cambridge, China is not going to match the US in the knowledge economy. This also represents the obstacles China has to overcome to successfully conduct impactful scientific research.

5) Attract the best and brightest to immigrate into China, where they can expect to live a good life in Chinese society. The US effectively receives a subsidy of $100 to $200 billion a year, as people educated at the expense of another nation immigrate here and promptly participate in the workforce. As smart as people within China are, unless they can attract non-Chinese talent that is otherwise going to the US, and even talented Americans, they will not have the same intellectual and psychological cross-pollination, and hence miss out on those economic benefits. The small matter of people not wanting to move into a country that is not a democracy also has to be resolved.

6) Become the nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress. Despite the fears of innovation going overseas, the big new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from companies headquartered in the United States. Just in the last two years, Google emerged as the next super-lucrative company (before eBay and Yahoo slightly earlier), and the American-dominated 'blogosphere' emerged as a powerful force of information and media.

7) Be the leader in entertainment and culture. China's film industry greatly lags India's, let alone America's. We hear about piracy of American music and films in China, which tells us exactly what the world order is. When American teenagers are actively pirating music and movies made in China, only then will the US have been surpassed in this area. Take a moment to think how distant this scenario is from current reality.

8) Be the nation that engineers many of the greatest moments of human accomplishment. The USSR was ahead of the US in the space race at first, until President Kennedy decided in 1961 to put a man on the moon by 1969. While this mission initially seemed to be unnecessary and expensive, the optimism and pride brought to anti-Communist people worldwide was so inspirational that it accelerated many other forms of technological progress and brought economic growth to free-market countries. This eventually led to a global exodus from socialism altogether, as the pessimism necessary for socialism to exist became harder to enforce. People from many nations still feel pride from humanity having set foot on the Moon, something which America made possible.

China currently has plans to put a man on the moon by 2024. While being only the second country to achieve this would certainly be prestigious, it would still be 55 years after the United States achieved the same thing. That is not quite the trajectory it would take to approach the superpowerdom of the US by 2030. If China puts a man on Mars before the US, I may change my opinion on this point, but the odds of that happening are not high.

9) Be the nation expected to thanklessly use its own resources to solve many of the world's problems. If the US donates $15 billion in aid to Africa, the first reaction from critics is that the US did not donate enough. On the other hand, few even consider asking China to donate aid to Africa. After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the fashionable question was why the US did not donate even more and sooner, rather than why China did not donate more, despite being geographically much closer. Ask yourself this - if an asteroid were on a collision course with the Earth, which country's technology would the world depend on to detect it, and then destroy or divert it? Until China is relied upon to an equal degree, it is not in the same league.

10) Adapt to the underappreciated burden of superpowerdom - the huge double standards that a benign superpower must withstand in that role. America is still condemned for slavery that ended 140 years ago, even by nations that have done far worse things more recently than that. Is China prepared to apologize for Tianenmen Square, the genocide in Tibet, the 30 million who perished during the Great Leap Forward, and the suppression of news about SARS,every day for the next century? Is China remotely prepared for being blamed for inaction towards genocide in Darfur while simultaneously being condemned for non-deadly prison abuse in a time of war against opponents who follow no rules of engagement? The amount of unfairness China would have to withstand to truly achieve political parity with America might be prohibitive given China's history over the last 60 years. Furthermore, China being held to the superpower standard would simultaneously reduce the burden that the US currently bears alone, allowing the US to operate with less opposition than it experiences today.

Akbar, Of the ten points above, Europe and Japan have tried for decades, and have only achieved parity with the US on maybe two of these dimensions at most. China will surpass Europe and Japan by 2030 by achieving perhaps two or possibly even three out of these ten points, but attaining all ten is something I am willing to confidently bet against. The dream of anti-Americans who relish the prospect of any nation, even a non-democratic one, surpassing the US is still a very distant one.

A point that many bring up is that empires have always risen and fallen throughout history. This is partly true, but note that the Roman Empire lasted for over 1000 years after its peak. Also note that the British Empire never actually collapsed since Britain is still one of the the top seven countries in the world today, and the English language is the most widely spoken in the world. Britain was merely surpassed by its descendant, with whom it shares a symbiotic relationship. The US can expect the same if it is finally surpassed, at some point much later than 2030 and probably not before the Technological Singularity, which would make the debate moot.

So Akbar Khan, do you now agree that you lost your mind while writing that post of yours? No country in the world can mess with us. USA is a country where Pashtuns, Blacks and Koreans can be proud Americans. We even have Pashtuns served in our armed forces and they are 100 percent American just like how I am.

All this talk is hot air, fact of the matter is that you can not even defeat a bunch of guys armed with just AKs in Afghanistan.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

If the USA wants, it can carpet bomb Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and all these other tiny hindrances back to 690AD with the loss of perhaps 2-3 aircraft. It can drop three to four MOABs on Kandahar obliterating everything living thing there. But it doesn't do it.

unknownprince, when you come out to debate anyone, you must have knowledge. Without it, you make fundamental mistakes that expose your ignorance and no one even remotely knowledgeable would want anything to do with you. Pakistan and India barely have decent MRBMs and without advanced ICBMs, their nuclear arsenal cannot harm the US at all. Even North Korean ICBMs cannot penetrate America's advanced missile shield. Currently, American corporations are milking India for millions, why would they want more hegemony anyway? Just to let you know, the threat of American corporate pullout from India is what prevented them from attacking Pakistan in 2002.

As for indiscriminate bombing, they dismissed David McKiernan precisely because he didn't care about civilian casualties. The modus operandi now is to avoid aerial support if there are civilian areas nearby. Even Petraus has to stick to this one.

Read James' post and learn from it. For China to be even remotely considered a real threat to US global hegemony, it will take around at least 30 years of steady Chinese growth and American decline. Right now, the US calls all the shots in the Middle-East, North Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe (even the former Soviet satellite-states) and Central Asia (china's backdoor). The US spends more on research and technology than the rest of the world combined and that is unlikely to change for a very long time. As far as creativity is concerned, no one can even come close to the US right now, not even Europe with its new space program and what not.

I'm not a US-supporter, I think the US plays a very negative role as far as global politics are concerned and additionally, it is the greatest threat to world peace, leaving Al-Qaeda and North Korea behind by leaps and strides. But I am not someone who, for his own personal satisfaction, will go against the facts. Much good your flying Arab did to his people. His people were fighting each other over wells and goats when the British came to liberate them from the Turks in 1914.

Refute what I wrote. I don't care about your friends and what they said.

James, you're talking to people for whom the empirical truth is valueless when compared to the fantasy world that their hearts desire. They have no understanding of anything except what their selected theologians tell them. And hence their self-imposed ignorance.

[KhalsaWarrior]

Its stupid to call a China a superpower. At least, not yet. And India? Lets not even think about it. Superpower is one where your will is enforced anywhere in the world, come what may and against any opposition. The US has done that for decades. China would have to do that atleast for a few years before it can be accorded that status.

Yes, China is a rising power and a very formidable one. Probably the next in line of the US falters. But will that materialize? Only the future will tell.

[KhalsaWarrior]

Can the US impose there will on China or Russia?

NO, they can't. So, technically, they are not a superpower then by your own definition. By your own definition, there has never been a superpower because there has never been a nation or entity that imposed there will on ANYONE in the world.

Ok. I meant that as a general rule. Of course countries like China and Russia have always been too powerful. But try thinking if China would have been able to respond to an event like 9/11 the way US did. I dont think so.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

Can the US impose there will on China or Russia?

NO, they can't. So, technically, they are not a superpower then by your own definition. By your own definition, there has never been a superpower because there has never been a nation or entity that imposed there will on ANYONE in the world.

Yes, the US has imposed its will on China on many occasions. It is the US alone that has prevented the giant China (1.3 billion people) to attack and invade the small island of Taiwan (23 million people). The sailing of two US aircraft carriers into the South China sea was enough to change China's stance towards Taiwan. And that's saying a lot because the PRC considers Taiwan as an internal part of its own territory.

China exports more to the US than it does to any other country/region of the world. If it strains its relations with the US, its manufacturing industries would collapse within weeks. 20% of Chinese exports go to the US whereas another 17% go to US military allies (South Korea, Germany, Japan). That's easily more than a third of China's GNP right there.

As far as Russia is concerned, you need only look at the last 10 years of how the US has been building military relations with former Russian satellite states with Russia unable to do anything about it. Look how it made Russia and China change their stance on Iran and the UNSC resolutions that punished the Islamic Republic with sanctions.

Yes, Russia is a tougher nut to crack than China (because of the former's wealth of natural resources) but Russia cannot even exert control over Eastern Europe (US relations with the Czech Republic, Poland and the missile shields), the Balkans (NATO presence in the former Yugoslavia, the trial of former Serb leaders and the creation of Kosovo as an independent state) and the Baltic so global domination is decades away.

[Levanaye Zalmaye]

LZ, nice try.

China brought down one of OUR planes, and dismantled it, held the crew for days and interrogated them, and then shipped our plane back to US in pieces with OUR crew. Thats China for you. This happened in 2001 (I think). All Bush could do was issue condemnations (much of a superpower eh??) US was the superpower back then. US has been the superpower, but the days have come to an end whether you like it or not. Everyone is recognizing China. These are the facts. The talk has been CHINA, CHINA, CHINA, for years now. People are leaving the sinking ship.

Trying to make me sound unintelligent!! Nice try, but you failed. Did I say that India or Pakistan has the missile range for the US? I never said that. Putting words in my mouth. hmmmm, please update your debating skills.

Please put your glasses on! Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons, so if the US decided to attack them, they would attack strategic US interests. Saudi Arabia and Iraqi oil fields, Israel, and bases within their radius. Iran actually would attack Saudi Arabia oil fields in the event that they are attacked. If that happens, we will be riding Huffy bicycles to the groceries. Lenin would love this!!!!

On the other hand, China and Russia could bomb the crap out of US too and also put us into the stone ages according to James line of thought. But don't worry, as we can't do it to them, nor can they do it to us!!! This is is according to James definition of a superpower. I have a different definition of a superpower. A superpower to me is a nation that can make other nations insignificant to the rest of the world, and China has and will continues to do that.

N. Korea has missiles that can reach any American city by the way (do your research). This is old news. There was like a whole article published about this in the WSJ a few years ago!!! I thought you read, looks like you have no knowledge in this oh so smart one!!!

But in the large scheme of things, nuclear powers will never fight each other simply due to the threat of nuclear warfare which would bring the quick end to half of the world. Use some common sense please instead of your outdated Marxist train of thought.

uknownkid,

The task of trying to make you sound unintelligent is accomplished very efficiently by yourself and therefore, I leave that solely to you. Look at your post above. I don't even know where to begin.

I stand by what I said - without long-range delivery systems, Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons cannot harm the US or its vital interests. Look at the stuff you're saying. You're saying that in case of a war, Pakistan and India would use strategic nuclear strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iraq (technically neutral states). lol are you serious? Do you know the implications of such actions? Only someone with no understanding of how the world works would utter such nonsense. Why would they give the US the green-light to annihilate them with nuclear weapons? By the way, both Pakistani and Indian nukes cannot reach Israel.

As far as Iran is concerned, it couldn't destroy Iraq's oil fields in its 8-year war with it (1980-88) and that's when it had an operational fleet of American F-14s. It'd be nothing short of a miracle if Iran can even influence Middle-Eastern oil-producing or supplying capacity especially given the US naval domination of the Persian Gulf.

Also, given that Russia has only 1 aircraft carrier in service and China is using an old Soviet-era aircraft carrier (as opposed to 11 state-of-the-art possessed by the United States), I seriously doubt that anyone can bomb the US. Like I said, do your research before making such bold claims, unknownkid. Neither the Chinese nor the Russian navies can cross either the Pacific or the Atlantic because of their lack of material strength. To think otherwise is ludicrous.

As for North Korean nukes, not only can they only hit coastal Pacific United States but they can easily be shot down. Even so, North Korean nukes are weaker than the Hiroshima bomb. So rejoice not because Kim Yong Il and his successor are not coming to your rescue any time soon.

As for Marxism, it's principles are actively in place in Canada, the UK, the Scandinavian welfare states, Vietnam, China (look where it was in 1948 and look at it now) and all the other places of the world. The positive influence of Marxist thought on economics, society and the individual (basically everything from the rights of the working man to state-sponsored healthcare and education and more) are profound and continuing whereas your Islamic Utopia is so impractical, it never was and it never will be. At least I live in the real world.

I will highlight the top which you should read in response to your stupid remard about US being able to impose its will on China. You really don't pay attention to news oh so smart one LZ? LOL.

There is a term for what you do: its called projection!!!

Instead of showing your childishness once again, refute the points that I made. You refuted not a single sentence typed by James and you're repeating the same here because you lack the basic understanding of anything and you stoop to trolling. Please explain the dynamics of China-Taiwan relations then and the US's role in it.

No one's saying China and Russia are pushowers. But given the status quo, they cannot be considered competitors to American global hegemony.

Lastly, the US is shoytouaaaaan and taghut and dajjal and Abu Jahl and camel-poop. I don't like what it does outside its own borders. But I cannot deny that its not massively powerful.

[drona]

Unknownprince,

If you really wish to fight your enemy *and* win, then never underestimate its abilities.

Make a pretense of cooperation, and strike when you are strong.

[JAMALUDEEN]

The only way to counter America and its Influence is the SCO( Shanghai Co-operation) which consists of all Asian states including Russia. But Sadly Asia is so backward and under developed, it may take a very long time for it to ever been so influencial against America.

Really?

[amna.]

Levanaye Zalmaye and James, good points.