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My humble two cents on the subject,
It's a misnomer to say that those who are fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan belong to a single entity called the Taliban, or controlled by it. The insurgency is divided into many factions, who don't necessarily agree with each other when it comes to political views or global ambitions, but have one thing in common, the abhorrence for foreign occupation. In an interview Hamid Gul addressed a question in regards to the current situation. He responded quote: "They are not Italy and Parsi, they are Italy and Italy." You can say whatever you want to say about the man, but he understands the historical, psychological, philosophical aspects of the region and the people. It is in his interest as a Pakistani to associate the two (local population and the Taliban entity) together of course, and it is also in the interest of the NATO forces to blend the two without creating a distinction (justification of the war). Yet, the reality is much different. Something that Karzai realizes but is hopeless in terms of dealing with it. He depends on foreign forces, and his national army reeking with non-Pukhtoons doesn't help either. As long as there are foreign soldiers on the ground in Pukhtoon areas (whether NATO or non-Pukhtoon Afghans), the entity known as Taliban will get support from the locals since disdain for foreigners naturally come to all Pukhtoons. It is a part of our psyche. We don't like fellow Pukhtoons belonging to different tribes interfering with our affairs let alone non-Pukhtoons who don't share our perspective and view on life.
A point to consider, Iraq. Iraqi insurgency is very limited because it is supported by a minority amongst the Sunnis. Majority of the Iraqis are Shia with an alliance with the Kurds who oppose the insurgents and historic Sunni hegemony. The insurgents try their best to create an atmosphere of civil war however the Shia community is very resilient. They know that war is not in their interest. With due time this insurgency will die out. In case of Afghanistan it's different. The majority of Afghans are Pukhtoons, and the majority of the Taliban happen to be Pukhtoons. The Taliban (and their backers) challenge historic sentiments in the mindsets of the locals. They thrive on the culture and religion of regional inhabitants. They also have a reserve Pukhtoon population to tap into across the Durand which is equally politicized and religiously motivated. This Pukhtoon population is greater in numbers than the one in Afghanistan. You can convince some in the Afghan region to lay down their arms in return for economical incentives, but on this side things are different. People have not been exposed to war and turmoil like that in Afghanistan. They are fresh, and it just so happens that this reserve population is within the boundary of the only state that has strategic interest in supporting the Taliban.
Pakistan gives more support in terms of logistics, man power, and resources to NATO/Americans compared to that which it might provide in secret to the Taliban. Yet the Taliban are as strong as ever. Which can only mean that they have another source of support i.e. local population.
To your question, the answer is NO. Without the support of the locals an insurgency like that of the Taliban can't survive. Not for this long and not against such odds.
It's a misnomer to say that those who are fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan belong to a single entity called the Taliban, or controlled by it. The insurgency is divided into many factions, who don't necessarily agree with each other when it comes to political views or global ambitions, but have one thing in common, the abhorrence for foreign occupation. In an interview Hamid Gul addressed a question in regards to the current situation. He responded quote: "They are not Italy and Parsi, they are Italy and Italy." You can say whatever you want to say about the man, but he understands the historical, psychological, philosophical aspects of the region and the people. It is in his interest as a Pakistani to associate the two (local population and the Taliban entity) together of course, and it is also in the interest of the NATO forces to blend the two without creating a distinction (justification of the war). Yet, the reality is much different. Something that Karzai realizes but is hopeless in terms of dealing with it. He depends on foreign forces, and his national army reeking with non-Pukhtoons doesn't help either. As long as there are foreign soldiers on the ground in Pukhtoon areas (whether NATO or non-Pukhtoon Afghans), the entity known as Taliban will get support from the locals since disdain for foreigners naturally come to all Pukhtoons. It is a part of our psyche. We don't like fellow Pukhtoons belonging to different tribes interfering with our affairs let alone non-Pukhtoons who don't share our perspective and view on life.
A point to consider, Iraq. Iraqi insurgency is very limited because it is supported by a minority amongst the Sunnis. Majority of the Iraqis are Shia with an alliance with the Kurds who oppose the insurgents and historic Sunni hegemony. The insurgents try their best to create an atmosphere of civil war however the Shia community is very resilient. They know that war is not in their interest. With due time this insurgency will die out. In case of Afghanistan it's different. The majority of Afghans are Pukhtoons, and the majority of the Taliban happen to be Pukhtoons. The Taliban (and their backers) challenge historic sentiments in the mindsets of the locals. They thrive on the culture and religion of regional inhabitants. They also have a reserve Pukhtoon population to tap into across the Durand which is equally politicized and religiously motivated. This Pukhtoon population is greater in numbers than the one in Afghanistan. You can convince some in the Afghan region to lay down their arms in return for economical incentives, but on this side things are different. People have not been exposed to war and turmoil like that in Afghanistan. They are fresh, and it just so happens that this reserve population is within the boundary of the only state that has strategic interest in supporting the Taliban.
Pakistan gives more support in terms of logistics, man power, and resources to NATO/Americans compared to that which it might provide in secret to the Taliban. Yet the Taliban are as strong as ever. Which can only mean that they have another source of support i.e. local population.
To your question, the answer is NO. Without the support of the locals an insurgency like that of the Taliban can't survive. Not for this long and not against such odds.
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