Taliban say they are not looking to rule Afghanistan alone

[khushal]

There is right now more ANA soldiers and pro government militias in Kabul than the entire Taliban movements combined. Peace talks will fail if the Taliban refuse to talk to the government..

They are not pro gov, they are pro money. If US funding stops so will they stop being pro gov. They have repeatedly said they will sit with gov after foreign forces leave. The "cave monkeys" are not stupid, foreign forces are the gov's leverage. Once the leverage is gone, its more like they will talk and the gov will listen. Everyone knows America is going to get tired of funding this forever.

Trump wants to end the funding for this waste of American money before the next election. Building the "beautiful" wall, defeating ISS (which the weak democrats couldn't do), leaving Afghanistan because AQ has been defeated, Best economy "in the history of the World" are reelection campaign slogans. Make America Great Again, Keep America Great.

[khushal]

You are right but I believe out state is not collapsing anytime soon. Ghani said that without the USA Afghanistan would collapse within six months. But I dont think thats going to happen. Regional countries wont let it happen.
.

When the US leaves, it will go back to the Status Quo. Anti India and Anti Iran regional powers (The Arab World and the Pakis), will fund the people who are in their interests. Iran, India, Russia will fund the people in their best interests.

[Firdousi]

They are not pro gov, they are pro money. If US funding stops so will they stop being pro gov. They have repeatedly said they will sit with gov after foreign forces leave. The "cave monkeys" are not stupid, foreign forces are the gov's leverage. Once the leverage is gone, its more like they will talk and the gov will listen. Everyone knows America is going to get tired of funding this forever.

Trump wants to end the funding for this waste of American money before the next election. Building the "beautiful" wall, defeating ISS (which the weak democrats couldn't do), leaving Afghanistan because AQ has been defeated, Best economy "in the history of the World" are reelection campaign slogans. Make America Great Again, Keep America Great.

Brother, you should stop buying what the Alt Right keeps barking. Correct me if I am wrong: Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah, Mosul, Raqqa, Baiji, Baquba,.. all these places were "taken" (aka carpet bombed) on Obama´s watch. Trump just followed the same strategy. He did not change anything. And there wont be any wall. Republicans lost the last elections. At this point its most likely that Democrats will win in 2020. Alt Right has been destroyed and exposed as weak and incoherent online movement. Aggressive Liberals are all over the country bullying everybody with their nonsense and nobody can stop them. USA´s economy was already booming with Obama. And the White American demographic decline has not been reverted. Trump has just ruined the USA from within.

[Firdousi]

When the US leaves, it will go back to the Status Quo. Anti India and Anti Iran regional powers (The Arab World and the Pakis), will fund the people who are in their interests. Iran, India, Russia will fund the people in their best interests.

Thats too simplistic. We dont live in that status quo anymore. Our world has changed. Regional and international dynamics are different now. There are new governments and policies in all those countries. If KSA and Israel are willing to cooperate, then impossible is nothing and we should expect regional countries to cooperate in our region as well.

You are a true believer in history determinism.

[Insight]

Once US leaves, there will be no return to the "chaos of the 90s." Why? Because all the main power players or stooges are spent bullets.

Dostum and Ismail are prime examples of figures who got fat, rich, and yes lazy off the US war.

Abdullah Abdullah doesn't have much of an Northern Alliance to depend on. Spent!

And [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION] is right. Once the US funding dries up for the ANA, they will cease to fight. ANA are simply a bunch of hired guns aka mercenaries and that is why they are so ineffective on the battlefield.

[randolph85]

US has totally sidestepped the Kabul regime in talks with Taliban. No further explanation is needed.

Modern weapons of the ANA frequently fall into Taliban possession after they raid ANA bases. This has been happening for years.

How the US Is Indirectly Arming the Taliban | The Diplomat

An Emboldened Taliban Nearly ‘Wiped Out’ An Entire Afghan Army Unit Using Lethal New Tactics - Task & Purpose


For the last 15-17 years, the ANA with the support of over 100,000 US/NATO troops and US airpower, could not defeat the Taliban.

The ANA is a joke man. Even US soldiers joke about how inefficient the ANA is. This type of news happens everyday

Taliban Kill 4 Afghan Forces, Overrun Northern Army Base

And this happened last week right before US again restarted talks with the Taliban

Taliban attack on military base kills at least 65, Afghan officials say | Fox News


Neither the Kabul regime nor the ANA have any significance to the outcome.

Watch Ghani's last press conference. Even he seems resigned to fate.

Historically, the guerrilla force in Afghanistan will always pose problems to the national military but never win outright. When the guerilla’s become a national military, they will easily fold.

The Taliban were fighting a total war against the US and sacrificing people to set off bombs whereas if the US Wanted to, they could press a few buttons, turn some keys, and kill 30 million people with nukes.

The ANA is an institution, it doesn’t matter who is in charge. There should not be a parallel state or military institution. It makes no sense in a state that is not at war.

[randolph85]

That’s not true though. Bush was going to invade Afghanistan even before 9/11 happened, and the Taliban offered to give up Bin Laden to Porkistan or another Muslim country.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda were never that close. Bin Laden only gave Bay’ah to Mullah Omar because he didn’t want to lose influence among the Arab mujahideen to someone else, and the Taliban tried to keep him from using Afghanistan to plan attacks against other countries.

Honestly, it was a big mistake for the Taliban to house Al Qaeda in the first place. They were the ISI’s guys, not the Taliban’s, and it was Arabs that committed most of the atrocities that the Taliban are associated with. They should’ve forced Porkistan to take them in.

There is no evidence the US had any plans to invade Afg before 9/11. These are old Alex Jones bs talking points. The country meant nothing to the world at that point, and Massoud begging for help in Paris wasn’t exactly making NATO beat the drums of war.

Yes the Taliban conceded on Bin Laden when they realized the US was serious about war but it was too little too late for them.

[Insight]

Historically, the guerrilla force in Afghanistan will always pose problems to the national military but never win outright. When the guerilla’s become a national military, they will easily fold.

The Taliban were fighting a total war against the US and sacrificing people to set off bombs whereas if the US Wanted to, they could press a few buttons, turn some keys, and kill 30 million people with nukes.

The ANA is an institution, it doesn’t matter who is in charge. There should not be a parallel state or military institution. It makes no sense in a state that is not at war.

The ANA is the mercenary force of a US occupation puppet regime. They will cease to exist once the US leaves with its $$$. What parallel state are you going on about? You talk of a puppet regime as if it has legitimacy on the shoulders of a decades long US occupation. They never had legitimacy.

The ANA are a bunch of hired guns that cant even hold military bases with a reduced US presence. Imagine without a US presence?

Who are you kidding? Suddenly after the US leaves along with their cash, the ANA will become a formidable force.
Who is going to pay the ANA?

I feel like you are falling into make belief at this stage. You are bringing up hypotheticals and irrelevancies while US discusses their withdrawal from Afghanistan with the Taliban

Even Ghani knows it now.

[Firdousi]

Once US leaves, there will be no return to the "chaos of the 90s." Why? Because all the main power players or stooges are spent bullets.

Dostum and Ismail are prime examples of figures who got fat, rich, and yes lazy off the US war.

Abdullah Abdullah doesn't have much of an Northern Alliance to depend on. Spent!

And [MENTION=1547]khushal[/MENTION] is right. Once the US funding dries up for the ANA, they will cease to fight. ANA are simply a bunch of hired guns aka mercenaries and that is why they are so ineffective on the battlefield.

You have been in this forum for a long, long time, and you still use labels such as "Northern Alliance", a term that nobody uses in Afg. Why you so retarded, Paki?

[Firdousi]

There is no evidence the US had any plans to invade Afg before 9/11. These are old Alex Jones bs talking points. The country meant nothing to the world at that point, and Massoud begging for help in Paris wasn’t exactly making NATO beat the drums of war.

Yes the Taliban conceded on Bin Laden when they realized the US was serious about war but it was too little too late for them.

After Russian withdrawal an extremist rise in USA´s best interest in order to keep Iran at bay. They allowed Saddam´s rule in Iraq for the very same reasons. The West did not care much about ASM begging in Europe. They had lost all interest. 9/11 was a turning point.

[Azmal]

There is no evidence the US had any plans to invade Afg before 9/11. These are old Alex Jones bs talking points. The country meant nothing to the world at that point, and Massoud begging for help in Paris wasn’t exactly making NATO beat the drums of war.

Yes the Taliban conceded on Bin Laden when they realized the US was serious about war but it was too little too late for them.

Porkistani war is against Afghan institutions and states. Kabul must burn and strategic depth is basically that. Million dollar question is what these religion simplitons will do, considering they are hostage at hand of Punjab and once they gain legitimacy and alternative will they forget the backstabbing of Porkis? I would suspect Porkis will keep their families as bargaining card.
The fact is these village idiots have no experience or capacity to rule a country, Afghanistan is not backyard village in Konar. Nonetheless very interesting time, what will happen in a year or so will shape the next few decades. Things to see: will Trump pull US troops out of Afg- all the CIA listening posts and the Israeli defense force troops that are position in western Afghanistan.
What role India will play?

Ps: Dr Najib fall had more to do with Soviet withholding funds and later engineering his downfall- jabur Saraj treaty of Massod.

[Insight]

Historically, the guerrilla force in Afghanistan will always pose problems to the national military but never win outright. When the guerilla’s become a national military, they will easily fold.

The Taliban were fighting a total war against the US and sacrificing people to set off bombs whereas if the US Wanted to, they could press a few buttons, turn some keys, and kill 30 million people with nukes.

The ANA is an institution, it doesn’t matter who is in charge. There should not be a parallel state or military institution. It makes no sense in a state that is not at war.

Everyone who talks about the Taliban insurgency being a Pakistani proxy force seems to conveniently forget the fact that the entire US war and Kabul puppet regime have gone on due to Pakistani supply lines.

This brings up my other point in regards to the ANA and other regime security forces- once US leaves, Pakistan will have no reason to keep the US supply lines open(this Pakistani prostitution kept the US war and the puppet Kabul regime going on), so how would the ANA be supplied?

The Northern Distribution network that the US created as an alternative is expensive and impractical. When Pakistan cut the supply lines in 2011, they were unable to properly supply US forces until the Pakistani supply lines were reopened. Those supply lines also kept the ANA armed.

No US troop, no US funding, no Pakistani supply lines.

Will Iran or Russia start supplying the ANA? I doubt that since they have instead opened up ties to the Taliban, giving support to Taliban demand that US withdraws

[Insight]

When the US leaves, it will go back to the Status Quo. Anti India and Anti Iran regional powers (The Arab World and the Pakis), will fund the people who are in their interests. Iran, India, Russia will fund the people in their best interests.

I do not believe there will be the return to the status quo.

The Northern Alliance doesn't exist as a formidable force in any regard.

The ANA are hired guns whose existence depends on a US troop presence, US funding, and the Pakistan supply lines that made this war seem like it would go on forever. Those who say Taliban insurgents are Pakistani proxies seem to conveniently forget this blatant fact that made this nearly 20 year war possible.

And Ismail Khan, Dostum, Abdullah Abdullah and the likes are all fat from making themselves rich off this war. They present no formidable opposition to Taliban insurgency.

My take is that within 3-4 months of a US exit, Taliban will take over most of Afghanistan.

They may possibly leave Kabul alone to keep the state security apparatus put in place. They would probably want business insitutions to remain like the stock exchange (put in place by Afghan banks few years ago). They probably want US to help morph state banking institutions away from the corruption that has existed. I believe these are the topics being discussed in Qatar. Keeping the financial instutions in place and basic services like water, electricity, and gas are very important priorities for them in my opinion. The leverage they perhaps are using is awarding US business rights to help the future government develop their lithium reserves. They must know US gives fairer deals than China who only seeks to exploit the resources of others unfairly. Qatar has the best interests for Afghanistan in my opinion (they want to invest for their own interests too).

That is where Ghani could make himself relevant IMO. Ghani has importance as an American contact but Khalilzad may eclipse him.

I think in old age, Khalilzad has grown wise. He may redeem himself as a very significant person that shapes Afghanistan's future.

[randolph85]

The ANA is the mercenary force of a US occupation puppet regime. They will cease to exist once the US leaves with its $$$. What parallel state are you going on about? You talk of a puppet regime as if it has legitimacy on the shoulders of a decades long US occupation. They never had legitimacy.

The ANA are a bunch of hired guns that cant even hold military bases with a reduced US presence. Imagine without a US presence?

Who are you kidding? Suddenly after the US leaves along with their cash, the ANA will become a formidable force.
Who is going to pay the ANA?

I feel like you are falling into make belief at this stage. You are bringing up hypotheticals and irrelevancies while US discusses their withdrawal from Afghanistan with the Taliban

Even Ghani knows it now.

I don’t think you understand that what is in place now are institutions, it doesn’t matter who is in charge. Every soldier in any nation is a “hired gun.” Legitimacy doesn’t matter because in the real world the strong survive and right or wrong doesn’t matter. No one voted for the Taliban in the 90s, where did their legitimacy come from? It came from nearly defeating their enemies before US intervention. Had Najib defeated the Mujahadin, he would of had the same “legitimacy”

Where do you think Taliban finances come from? From a young Mullah Omar’s wise decision to invest in Apple stock back in the 80s? It’s drugs, extortion, foreigners, neighboring states, etc. Their money is just as haram as Kabul’s


And Do you really think the US will stop keeping the Kabul regime on welfare if they leave? Lol.

As for a parallel state, you either don’t understand what I am saying or you think that if there is a peace deal, everyone involved or related with Afghan government institutions in the last 18 years will suddenly disappear. Your outlook and perspective is the extreme view that the Talib in this article is ensuring will not happen. That is what is most ironic here.

[randolph85]

Everyone who talks about the Taliban insurgency being a Pakistani proxy force seems to conveniently forget the fact that the entire US war and Kabul puppet regime have gone on due to Pakistani supply lines.

This brings up my other point in regards to the ANA and other regime security forces- once US leaves, Pakistan will have no reason to keep the US supply lines open(this Pakistani prostitution kept the US war and the puppet Kabul regime going on), so how would the ANA be supplied?

The Northern Distribution network that the US created as an alternative is expensive and impractical. When Pakistan cut the supply lines in 2011, they were unable to properly supply US forces until the Pakistani supply lines were reopened. Those supply lines also kept the ANA armed.

No US troop, no US funding, no Pakistani supply lines.

Will Iran or Russia start supplying the ANA? I doubt that since they have instead opened up ties to the Taliban, giving support to Taliban demand that US withdraws

No one is forgetting anything. It’s been obvious for years that Pakistan plays a double game and it has worked well for them. As for the US leaving, what makes you think whatever financial and political incentive to keep these routes active will disappear? It’s always been financial/political, not cause someone said “the troops in Afg will harm you if you break our supply line”

Dude this is common sense. Why am I still doing this?

“I am too old for this ****” - black guy from lethal weapon