Obituary for Abdul Raziq

[khushal]

Syria is a failed state and it will eventually collapse. Although its a fact that Russia´s airpower and 70k Shia terrorist Jihadis is what is keep Assad´s regime afloat, it would be stupid to ignore the fact that vast majority of rebels are rural Sunni Arabs. Most of urban Sunni Arabs seem to be fine with Bashar. Damascus, Aleppo or Deir Ezzor are a good example of this.

Syria´s war reminds me a lot of Afghanistan during the 90ths and the current war. Most of Taliban are rural Sunni Pashtuns (Syrian rebels are rural Sunni Arabs). Urban Pashtuns and non Pashtuns seem to be fine to a degree with the government just like Urban Arab Sunnis and Shias, Druzes, Alevis,Christians, prefer Bashar over rebels. In Afghanistan we got two stronger regional powers (Iran and Pakistan) involved while other non regional powers such as India are involved. In Syria, Turkey and Israel to a lesser degree play a similar role while other countries such as KSA and UAE are trying to play too. In Afghanistan there are several superpowers involved USA and now increasingly Russia and China. Same thing goes for Syria. And deep down we all know that within a century neither Afghanistan nor Syria will be around. Both will eventually collapse. Nation states are doomed in the Islamic world.

What you say is mostly right but The difference between Syria and Afghanistan is that the vast majority of Syrian population is urban unlike Afghanistan whose majority population is rural which is why the Afghan gov was always afraid of the rural people and the successful kings either sided with them or left them alone.

[Insight]

You deluded Taliban fanboys truly amaze me. You live in La La Land. Russia is not begging Taliban for peace talks. What Putin is doing goes beyond the regional conflict. He is trying to thwart the American-led peace talks. Putin knows very well that without a deal, USA will eventually give up and leave. Its in his country´s best interest to sell the narrative about a superpower being defeated a bunch of tribal fighters.

Also this is part of the wider Russian plan to portray itself as an emerging global superpower. This kind of talks increases Russia´s clout and also increases its leverage over other regional countries. Russia is doing what China should be doing but its not: engaging with all regional and continental powers.

Taliban representatives in Moscow signal Russia's rising diplomatic clout - CNN

You overestimate Russia's importance to Afghanistan. They are portraying themselves as a power they are not.
Their economy is worthless. Their weapons are of low quality especially their S-300 and S-400 air defence.

Sure they know how to kill civilians but that does not win wars.

Do you remember the time Russia fired ballistic missiles to Syria BUT they ended up hitting Iran?

Russian Cruise Missiles Land in Iran by Mistake - The Atlantic


Or how about how Israel regularly strikes Iranian and Assad bases even when Russians are present?

Moscow blames Israel after Syria shoots down Russian military plane | World news | The Guardian

[randolph85]

You overestimate Russia's importance to Afghanistan. They are portraying themselves as a power they are not.
Their economy is worthless. Their weapons are of low quality especially their S-300 and S-400 air defence.

Sure they know how to kill civilians but that does not win wars.

Do you remember the time Russia fired ballistic missiles to Syria BUT they ended up hitting Iran?

Russian Cruise Missiles Land in Iran by Mistake - The Atlantic


Or how about how Israel regularly strikes Iranian and Assad bases even when Russians are present?

Moscow blames Israel after Syria shoots down Russian military plane | World news | The Guardian

Russian air defenses have never really been tested in the field. It is mostly hype but the diplomatic and military worry of Israel and the US about these systems being delivered to Iran and Syria shows that they may be the real deal. However, American military tech has been tested in the field and is for real.

As for Israeli air strikes against Syrian and Iranian military targets in Syria, it’s really just a huge embarrassment for Iran. Israel went from attacking Syrian targets for years and Iran targets indirectly to full on attacking Iranian military targets and killing hundreds of their troops. This would be impossible without Russian consent and had to be coordinated well in advance. The best response Iran had was to fire some worthless rockets into the Golan heights. Iran’s big talk of military might has really been exposed in the last couple years.

Israel and Russia have agreements in place regarding Syria and what targets get hit/when/how and etc. It is funny because for Russia in Syria, Israel is as much a partner as Iran is, but it’s Iran that is wasting human capital and billions of dollars in an economy that’s on a downward spiral.

[Firdousi]

Russian air defenses have never really been tested in the field. It is mostly hype but the diplomatic and military worry of Israel and the US about these systems being delivered to Iran and Syria shows that they may be the real deal. However, American military tech has been tested in the field and is for real.

As for Israeli air strikes against Syrian and Iranian military targets in Syria, it’s really just a huge embarrassment for Iran. Israel went from attacking Syrian targets for years and Iran targets indirectly to full on attacking Iranian military targets and killing hundreds of their troops. This would be impossible without Russian consent and had to be coordinated well in advance. The best response Iran had was to fire some worthless rockets into the Golan heights. Iran’s big talk of military might has really been exposed in the last couple years.

Israel and Russia have agreements in place regarding Syria and what targets get hit/when/how and etc. It is funny because for Russia in Syria, Israel is as much a partner as Iran is, but it’s Iran that is wasting human capital and billions of dollars in an economy that’s on a downward spiral.

Russian AA have already been used in the field: Gaddafi´s government had 30 heavy SAM batteries, 17 medium SAM batteries, 55 light SAM batteries (a total of 400–450 launchers, including 130–150 2K12 Kub launchers and some 9K33 Osa launchers), and 440–600 short-ranged air-defense guns. Do you know how many NATO airplanes they brought down? ZERO.

Russian AA is overrated. The only AA that must be considered a system to reckon with is the S400 and so far we know little about. But it must be a good system. Since Putin announced its delivery to Bashar there have been zero Israeli raids. Jews must know SAM´s very well or they just want to avoid a new uncomfortable situation with Russia because thye know this country will retaliate for the 14 soldiers killed by Israel.

[Firdousi]

Insight is right.
The CNN article reaffirms that the Russians are begging the Taliban to join their dialogue platform. The Taliban demand was for the Afghan gov to publicly say they are to attend the meeting "not as the Afghan Gov." First the Afghan gov refused to attend because of this demand but somehow the Russians have convinced them to attend anyways so what this means is that the Russians are bending to Taliban demands rather than the Afghan gov demands further signaling that the Russians view the Taliban more legit than the Afghan gov.

You have to read between the lines my friend.

Guys you never cease to amaze lmao. Russia is not begging the almighty Talib movement to join the talks. For the very first time in their recent history the Taliban have been invited to a regional meeting. This means that they have been recognized as a de facto parallel government in Afghanistan.

Not even in their wettest dreams these monkey savages could dream of a better scenario: they control absolutely nothing in Afghanistan except few mud houses and yet they have been invited by a nuclear superpower to eat at its table and share the dinner with other regional powers. "Begging the Taliban" lol

[Firdousi]

You overestimate Russia's importance to Afghanistan. They are portraying themselves as a power they are not.
Their economy is worthless. Their weapons are of low quality especially their S-300 and S-400 air defence.

Sure they know how to kill civilians but that does not win wars.

Do you remember the time Russia fired ballistic missiles to Syria BUT they ended up hitting Iran?

Russian Cruise Missiles Land in Iran by Mistake - The Atlantic


Or how about how Israel regularly strikes Iranian and Assad bases even when Russians are present?

Moscow blames Israel after Syria shoots down Russian military plane | World news | The Guardian

How deluded you Pakistanis are. Decades of pro terrorist brainwashing by your corrupt establishment has left you guys confused as hell. Your army just carpet bombed Waziristan three years ago and the Taliban movement was obliterated in there. Russia bombed the hell out of Chechenya and now that country is a loyal dog. Both the West and Russia systematically exterminated Sunni Arab cities in Syria and Iraq.. OF COURSE KILLING CIVILIANS MAKES YOU WIN WARS. At least for few decades. No victory lasts forever. But it use to work although it also fails sometines like Uncle Sam in Vietnam or URSS in Afghansitan.

I am not overestimating Russia. I know very well how weak this country is. If I had to bet I would say the Russian Federation will collapse in the coming two decades. Putin is a tiger paper but he is smart so he is taking advantage of Western stupidity, naivity and growing internal polarization. But Russians are a strong player.

[Insight]

How deluded you Pakistanis are. Decades of pro terrorist brainwashing by your corrupt establishment has left you guys confused as hell. Your army just carpet bombed Waziristan three years ago and the Taliban movement was obliterated in there. Russia bombed the hell out of Chechenya and now that country is a loyal dog. Both the West and Russia systematically exterminated Sunni Arab cities in Syria and Iraq.. OF COURSE KILLING CIVILIANS MAKES YOU WIN WARS. At least for few decades. No victory lasts forever. But it use to work although it also fails sometines like Uncle Sam in Vietnam or URSS in Afghansitan.

I am not overestimating Russia. I know very well how weak this country is. If I had to bet I would say the Russian Federation will collapse in the coming two decades. Putin is a tiger paper but he is smart so he is taking advantage of Western stupidity, naivity and growing internal polarization. But Russians are a strong player.

Exaclty, in recent history it has only failed which is my point.

This is true especially in Afghanistan for the last 200-300 years.

There is a reason we celebrate Wazir Akbar Khan and push his name forward. No one talks about Shah Shuja, and likewise history will forget the Karzais, Ghanis, and Abdullah's.

And they don't matter now which is why no world power cares to talk to them. Being a puppet is only a temporary gimmick.

[khushal]

Guys you never cease to amaze lmao. Russia is not begging the almighty Talib movement to join the talks. For the very first time in their recent history the Taliban have been invited to a regional meeting. This means that they have been recognized as a de facto parallel government in Afghanistan.

Not even in their wettest dreams these monkey savages could dream of a better scenario: they control absolutely nothing in Afghanistan except few mud houses and yet they have been invited by a nuclear superpower to eat at its table and share the dinner with other regional powers. "Begging the Taliban" lol

Yes, they are. The whole meeting was on Taliban terms. That the Afghan gov must publicly say they are not coming as the Afghan gov. To bend to their terms is begging.

They have been invited to a regional meeting many times, but they wanted their terms met. This is the first time it was met.

[randolph85]

The meeting was going to happen with or without the Taliban and was going to produce no results anyways. Why does the Taliban attend conferences in Russia but not conferences in Indonesia where Ulema are present instead of Russian Kuffar? It seems the Taliban wanted a photo op with a world power and Russia wanted to score diplomatic points by hosting the Taliban.

Also, it seems like the Qatar Taliban office team is like the HPC in Afghanistan in that it’s been around for years, serves no purpose because there has been no progress and both parties are being paid well with foreign money.

How many of these conferences are needed? Everything that needs to be said has already been said. Stop talking about talking and ****ing talk already. Both sides (mostly Taliban) setting conditions on talks defeats the whole purpose. You don’t start peace talks with people you agree with. Their entire strategy according to public statements is basically “fulfill our demands and then we will talk”

[Insight]

The meeting was going to happen with or without the Taliban and was going to produce no results anyways. Why does the Taliban attend conferences in Russia but not conferences in Indonesia where Ulema are present instead of Russian Kuffar? It seems the Taliban wanted a photo op with a world power and Russia wanted to score diplomatic points by hosting the Taliban.

Also, it seems like the Qatar Taliban office team is like the HPC in Afghanistan in that it’s been around for years, serves no purpose because there has been no progress and both parties are being paid well with foreign money.

How many of these conferences are needed? Everything that needs to be said has already been said. Stop talking about talking and ****ing talk already. Both sides (mostly Taliban) setting conditions on talks defeats the whole purpose. You don’t start peace talks with people you agree with. Their entire strategy according to public statements is basically “fulfill our demands and then we will talk”

US and Taliban have been and continue to talk in Qatar without Kabul.

Afghan Leader Blindsided by U.S. Meeting With Taliban, Officials Say - The New York Times

[khushal]

The meeting was going to happen with or without the Taliban and was going to produce no results anyways. Why does the Taliban attend conferences in Russia but not conferences in Indonesia where Ulema are present instead of Russian Kuffar? It seems the Taliban wanted a photo op with a world power and Russia wanted to score diplomatic points by hosting the Taliban.

Also, it seems like the Qatar Taliban office team is like the HPC in Afghanistan in that it’s been around for years, serves no purpose because there has been no progress and both parties are being paid well with foreign money.

How many of these conferences are needed? Everything that needs to be said has already been said. Stop talking about talking and ****ing talk already. Both sides (mostly Taliban) setting conditions on talks defeats the whole purpose. You don’t start peace talks with people you agree with. Their entire strategy according to public statements is basically “fulfill our demands and then we will talk”

This is true. But we don't know whats happening behind the scenes. The Meeting in Russia with the other regional players is so they can show the negotiations with the US are on public display.
Russia announces Taliban’s demands for US


In other news; It looks like the presidential elections are not going to happen per Taliban demands.
U.S. Considers Asking Afghanistan to Suspend Presidential Election - WSJ

Yup, I would say begging. They should have done this back in 2001, it would have been cheaper and less death, less suffering not to mention the US would have been more respected.

[khushal]

US and Taliban have been and continue to talk in Qatar without Kabul.

Afghan Leader Blindsided by U.S. Meeting With Taliban, Officials Say - The New York Times

If history is any guide here, it is that Ghani realizes that his gov fate is mirroring Shah Shuja.

[maneatinglizard]

The meeting was going to happen with or without the Taliban and was going to produce no results anyways. Why does the Taliban attend conferences in Russia but not conferences in Indonesia where Ulema are present instead of Russian Kuffar? It seems the Taliban wanted a photo op with a world power and Russia wanted to score diplomatic points by hosting the Taliban.

Because those Ulema conferences are largely illegitimate and the Taliban don't want to be seen as endorsing palace scholars. And those conferences always downplay the role of the US as the invading force, and deem that the Taliban's fight is unlawful Islamically. Seeing as how the Taliban claim they are fighting for an Islamic cause, obviously they're going to reject any conference that undermines their own position as completely wrong.

As for Russia, the Taliban maintain that they are the only legitimate government of Afghanistan, and want to show to the world that they are a real government that's capable of engaging with regional and world powers.

Also, it seems like the Qatar Taliban office team is like the HPC in Afghanistan in that it’s been around for years, serves no purpose because there has been no progress and both parties are being paid well with foreign money.

Yes, everything I've heard agrees with this. Both offices are basically ceremonial and have no power. If the Taliban do negotiate a peace agreement (spoiler: they wont), it'll be done completely by their leadership in Afghanistan/Pakistan.

How many of these conferences are needed? Everything that needs to be said has already been said. Stop talking about talking and ****ing talk already.

I think you're expecting more out of these conferences than their actual intended purpose. As I've said, I highly, highly doubt that the Taliban actually want a peace deal with Ghani's government. What they want is the US to leave so they can take over. So for the Taliban, these conferences are just a way to project power and legitimacy.

As for the Afghan government, an end to the war doesn't benefit them either. The US props up the entire organization, and many of the officials have gotten immensely rich from the constant flow of aid. If the war ends and America leaves, a lot of that aid money goes away, as most of it is earmarked for the Afghan military.

The one thing that may have changed in the last few years is that Trump's presidency means that the US may withdraw without a negotiated settlement. This is the absolute worst scenario for the government, so I think they may actually want peace now.

Both sides (mostly Taliban) setting conditions on talks defeats the whole purpose. You don’t start peace talks with people you agree with. Their entire strategy according to public statements is basically “fulfill our demands and then we will talk”

They have all the leverage and are flexing it. Even assuming that the Taliban were open to a peace deal with the government, they'll still seek to get the most out of it as possible.

[randolph85]

If nothing else, these behind the scene negotiations will end up like the Karzai-Qatar office-fake Mullah Omar debacle.

I hope I am wrong but I think a lot of you guys underestimate the American will to keep wasting money on the occupation, especially since it is not even a political issue in American politics these days and has always been seen as the good war vs the Iraq war.

[maneatinglizard]

In other news; It looks like the presidential elections are not going to happen per Taliban demands.
U.S. Considers Asking Afghanistan to Suspend Presidential Election - WSJ

The postponement of the election isn't a Taliban demand. They're considering it because they want a stable government that isn't in transition while talks are ongoing.

They have a very tight timeline. As the article mentions Khalilzad estimates he's working with 6 months to a year. This falls in line with previous rumors that Trump will begin the withdrawal in 2020. If the negotiations are to have an air of legitimacy, the Afghan government can't change in the middle of them. That's why they want to postpone their little rigged election for now.

On another note, Ghani protesting this just shows how much of a disingenuous snake he is. His government failed to hold parliamentary elections for what 5 years? But now that it's his position that may have its legitimacy (as if there ever was any) called into question, he's pushing back on the possibility of delaying it.

Yup, I would say begging. They should have done this back in 2001, it would have been cheaper and less death, less suffering not to mention the US would have been more respected.

What the US should've done is offer financial assistance to Afghanistan in exchange for peace between the Taliban and Northern Alliance, and a security guarantee that the Taliban would not allow any terrorist organization to operate in the country. Imagine how much Afghanistan could've prospered if even half the money spent on the war was instead used for rebuilding.

But the reality is that the US never wanted to do what's right. They wanted to install a puppet government in the country, and the populace wanted blood to be spilt as revenge for 9/11. So what we got instead is a useless war, a useless puppet government, and the creeping reality that Afghanistan will be back to square one when the US finally leaves.