Turkey says siege of Syrian city of Afrin has begun

[Firdousi]

Turkey says siege of Syrian city of Afrin has begun


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Kurds got owned badly. Their "resistance" collapsed even sooner than expected. Kurdish military capabilities have been too exaggerated by Western media and Western fanboys. Now it seems pretty obvious that they are an utter failure without massive American air support.

So far in this first Islamic ideological war we are witnessing some interesting developments: Islamic caliphate has failed although ISIS insurgency is back in Iraq so that country is back to square one: 2008. Kurdish nationalist cause failed also badly: they are fighting a losing war, surrounded by a sea of hostile neighbors, landlocked with no foreign support (USA will cede Manbij to Turkey and Russia has withdrawn from Tel Reefat). We should expect Kurds to go Islamic in order to gain more support especially among Sunni Arabs.

Sunni Arabs have been the main losers in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Arab nationalist forces along Shia Jihadis and foreign support (USA, Russia, Europe and Iran) destroyed Sunnis.

After the Arab Spring all the regional order has changed: Israel, KSA and USA used to be the main players. Now they are the main losers although Israel is facing the safest moment in his history. Still they lost.

On the other hand we are witnessing the raise of Iran and the Russian Federation. For now they are the winners of this mess. But I believe this is temporary. Both this countries are isolated and are facing a growing internal social problems.

In my humble opinion within ten years we will look back and laugh at this temporary Iranian/Russian victory. These both countries will be so broken, so disintegrated beyond repair. And we will admire the the new Eurasian superpower: the Islamic Republic of Turkey.

Yes I believe Turkey will the main winner of this war. Its a growing country, with a privileged geopolitical locations, huge population, with a rich Islamic heritage (which will giver her legitimacy) and a strong economy. Now that the entire ME has been wrecked by foreign and regional powers, all these countries will bow to the only Islamic powerhouse left: Turkey. Mark my words.

[Firdousi]

Also its wise to point out the emergence of several axis or alliances in the Middle East:

-Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon-Russia-Houthis.
-KSA-UAE-Bahrein-Egypt-Israel.

And there is a new alliance in the making: Turkey-Jordan-Qatar-Sudan-Palestine (Hamas and Palestinian National Authority) along with several proxies in Syria and Iraq. Jordanians and Palestinians are very mad at KSA over Jerusalem.

Bumpy times ahead.

[Firdousi]

Afrin has been taken in less than 10 hours. Kirkuk fell in less than 24h. At this point is safe to say that secular nationalist and communist Kurdish movements can not achieve the goal desired by most of Kurds: a free Kurdistan.

I believe Kurds in the coming years will go a bit more Islamists. Actually that would help their cause. Arab Sunnis would gladly support them now that they have been destroyed by others and by their own stupidity. Also it would even improve the relationship with Turkey.

The ideal solution for the Kurds would be to push for a confederation with Turkey and SUnni provinces of Iraq and Syria. It could push back the Iranian influence in the region, give a huge degree of autonomy to Kurds, help Arab Sunnis to get rid of Shia oppression and also keep at bay Israel and the West. But this is a dream I believe lol

[torkham]

@Firdausi. What are the analyses about Erdogan's policies in the region. I thought Rajab had the balls to manoeuvre Turkey away from the secular Kemalite's and towards what appears t be a greater role as an Islamic leader (given the Saudi agreemetnt to US-Israeli vision of ME). At times I am not sure what he is doing with Israel, then on the other hand he is promoting drinking dugh as a finger to the secularists, and development of mega mosques. What do you think?

[Firdousi]

@Firdausi. What are the analyses about Erdogan's policies in the region. I thought Rajab had the balls to manoeuvre Turkey away from the secular Kemalite's and towards what appears t be a greater role as an Islamic leader (given the Saudi agreemetnt to US-Israeli vision of ME). At times I am not sure what he is doing with Israel, then on the other hand he is promoting drinking dugh as a finger to the secularists, and development of mega mosques. What do you think?

Greetings.

Well Turkey is a complicated case basically because its not two, but four forces struggling for power and influence: Erdogan´s neo-otthomanism, Gulenism, Kemalism and Kurdish nationalism. Also the West and Russia are always trying to influence domestic politics in that country.

I particularly believe militan Kemalism is dead. Since the creation of modern republic of Turkey, that country has been living under a dictatorship of a liberal Western wannabe minority living in Western Turkey. Every time elections were held an Islamist strongman came to power: Menderes, Erbakan, etc. And every time Turks elected a conservative government nationalist fascist military establishment toppled the government and brought back the country along secular lines. This is actually a bit hilarious because in the West people claim that Erdogan is "damaging democracy" when its under Erdogan where Turkey has become a "democracy". An illiberal democracy.

For many years Erdogan and Gulen had an alliance: Erdogan used Gulen´s soft power (its pretty well known that Gulenists have created a state within the state) in order to weaken Kemalists. Since under Erdogan Turkey´s economy has improved remarkably well, the military establishment didnt really dare to topple him although the guy was increasingly showing his Islamist nature. Now that the common enemy was defeated, Gulen and Erdogan started fighting each other. I believe its a fact that Gulen had support of the USA in the 2016 coup. It was like last attempt by Gulenists forces to stop Erdogan. It failed.

Now Erdogan has definitely obliterated all Gulenist influence in Turkey just like he did with Kemalists. Few weeks ago, he broke an alliance with the ultranationalist forces of MHP. I believe for the coming decades neo-otthomanism will drive all the politics in that ocuntry. Also we are witnessing how nationalist Turkish forces are becoming more and more Islamists. These guys were hardcore anti-Islam few decades ago but they are embracing an Islamic discourse.

Erdogan is a quite pragmatic person. He knew how to play the game and eventually achieved most of his agenda. Also we must take into consideration that Erdogan´s goals in the long term: the Islamic schools in Turkey the Imam Hatips, are a struggle by the AKP to create a more pious generation. Since the numbers of children attending these schools is growing, I believe Turkey will definitely become more Islamic in the coming years.

I personally believe the current rise of neo-otthomanism is "good" for the region to some degree. Turks have been leading the armies of Islam for almost 8 centuries. They got a rich Islamic heritage and Turkey´s soft power is very strong (thats why GCC countries recently banned Turkish movies and dramas because they are scared of Turkish influence) and Erdogan is quite popular among Sunni Muslims not even in Turkey but also in Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Balkans and even among Sunni Muslims in Pakistan and India.

As I pointed out before, Turkey will become the main regional power within a decade. Iran and Russia rise is temporary. Both these countries, specially Iran, are facing growing social instability. Arab countries are destroyed and KSA hegemony is over (thats why they are teaming up with Israel). USA will leave this region in the coming years. Now that the entire region has been devastated they will eventually bow to the only Islamic powerhouse left: Turkey.

[Firdousi]

@Firdausi. What are the analyses about Erdogan's policies in the region. I thought Rajab had the balls to manoeuvre Turkey away from the secular Kemalite's and towards what appears t be a greater role as an Islamic leader (given the Saudi agreemetnt to US-Israeli vision of ME). At times I am not sure what he is doing with Israel, then on the other hand he is promoting drinking dugh as a finger to the secularists, and development of mega mosques. What do you think?

Sorry I forgot to answer regarding Israel.

Israel relies a lot on the West. Also the Orthodox population of Israel is growing very fast. Since nationalism is an atheistic ideology many practicing Jews dont really find it appealing. I dont think Israel will survive this century.

I said it before in other threads on this forum: the Arab-Jewish conflict will end without us even noticing it. Just like the 100 years war ended between France and England. It will morph and change into something different just like it has been doing since it beginning. It started as a colonial imposition, morphed into a nationalist war, then become ideological, then Palestinian cause went religious and the Zionist cause will eventually go also religious. Once nationalism is removed and this conflict is nationalist and not religious, it will suddenly stop. Jews, Muslims and Christians wont have a reason to fight each other because nationalism is an ideology alien to their religious doctrines.

In the new world order where the West is not hegemonic anymore many things are changing. There are new players, with different interests, ideologies and points of view. Countries that once were assets (NK, Pakistan, KSA, Israel, etc) are now becoming liabilities for their backers. Everything is changing. This countries must change too or just die just like other countries that were created for a colonial context (Afghanistan) or the Cold War (Checoslovakia, Yugoslavia, etc) died (lets face it, Afghanistan is dead but our pride refuses to accept it).

[torkham]

Thanks, appreciate your analysis. I have a good feeling about ‘neo-othomanism’ and hope it provides a sense of direction for the ummah that is lacking. There are the whirling darwesh, the salaf, the wahab group, then there is Rajab who so far, so far has attracted many muslims. Let’s see how he moves forward and what other directions he may choose.