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President Donald Trump kicked off a fire storm across Pakistan when he suspended an estimated $2bn in security aid to Islamabad after accusing it of continuing to give sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban, despite months of warnings that the US is losing patience.
Pakistan’s policy on Afghanistan has alienated Nato allies, which still have troops in Afghanistan. Only China, Russia and Turkey have so far stood up for Islamabad.
The long-term fall out from the spat could heighten Pakistan’s domestic political crisis — complicated by a constitutional tangle in Baluchistan province — and increase the risks for the 14,000 US and Nato forces in Afghanistan that depend heavily on supply lines that stretch through Pakistan from the port of Karachi.
Mr Trump’s move has caused jubilation in Kabul, where Afghan leaders have been pleading with the US for years to crack down on Pakistan’s alleged sanctuaries, especially for the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network. At least 80 people have been killed in suicide attacks in Kabul alone in the past two months.
America’s failure to act earlier was the major reason for the rupture in relations between the former Afghan president Hamid Karzai and Washington and has been a big issue between President Ashraf Ghani and the US. But while Mr Trump’s intervention will strengthen Mr Ghani’s weak and vulnerable regime, it is having the opposite effect in Pakistan.
Islamabad has been in a state of political turmoil since the summer when Nawaz Sharif was forced to step down as prime minister over corruption charges. His Pakistan Muslim League continues to rule, but it is divided, faces a strident opposition and remains in conflict with the all-powerful military. Elections are due this summer but there is no certainty that they will be held on time.
Mr Sharif is bitter about his ousting and recent speeches have made clear his criticism of the army and its control over domestic and foreign policy. He has said he will disclose how the military refused to help him bring peace to Afghanistan and improve relations with India. While criticising Mr Trump, he said Pakistan should put its house in order and realise “why the world does not take us seriously”.
Mr Trump is much disliked in Pakistan, but there is sharp political polarisation over how to tackle the issue of sanctuaries. Many blame the army for years of mollycoddling extremist groups from Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir while also harbouring local extremists.
The army and its supporters have repeatedly pointed to the heavy casualties among troops fighting the Pakistani Taliban. Yet only the army itself can change policy towards those Afghan Taliban hiding in Pakistan.
While the political rightwing, led by religious parties and Islamist extremist groups, and some politicians have spearheaded anti-US protests in the streets, the military initially took a sober though hard line against American demands on Islamabad.
But many in Pakistan, especially the army, are deeply concerned that Mr Trump’s calls last year to tighten ties to India and partner with it in Afghanistan could lead to Pakistan being surrounded by its neighbour and perennial enemy.
So there have been threats of suspending US supplies into Afghanistan from the port of Karachi, shooting down US drones and restricting American use of Pakistani airspace for bombing runs across the border. The opposition leader Imran Khan and foreign minister Khawaja Asif have been particularly vociferous in anti-American sentiment, according to Reuters news agency.
Any such moves could not only widen the US-Pakistan split, but also endanger the US-led war against the Taliban and further weaken the Kabul government.
For Pakistan, deteriorating relations with the US and Nato, an economy in deep trouble and the Baluchistan situation could mean a postponement of elections for the Senate — the upper house of parliament — due in March and even the summer general election.
In Baluchistan, the chief minister Sardar Sanaullah Zehri was forced to resign on Tuesday after opposition parties brought a motion of no confidence against him.
Mr Zehri is allied to Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League and it is feared that in the likely coming uncertainty, turmoil will spread to the other three provincial assemblies. The country could then find itself in uncharted constitutional territory, with a political vacuum that would almost certainly put the army in the driving seat.
Ahsan Iqbal, interior minister, warned last week that hidden forces were creating a crisis and ‘’the overall situation in the country remains a matter of concern’’.
In tapping out that morning tweet on January 1 attacking Pakistan for “lies & deceit”, Mr Trump appeared to have no idea of the political fall out for the region and no strategy for dealing with it. Persuading Pakistan to close down its sanctuaries for extremists is a better idea than coercion.
Pakistan’s policy on Afghanistan has alienated Nato allies, which still have troops in Afghanistan. Only China, Russia and Turkey have so far stood up for Islamabad.
The long-term fall out from the spat could heighten Pakistan’s domestic political crisis — complicated by a constitutional tangle in Baluchistan province — and increase the risks for the 14,000 US and Nato forces in Afghanistan that depend heavily on supply lines that stretch through Pakistan from the port of Karachi.
Mr Trump’s move has caused jubilation in Kabul, where Afghan leaders have been pleading with the US for years to crack down on Pakistan’s alleged sanctuaries, especially for the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network. At least 80 people have been killed in suicide attacks in Kabul alone in the past two months.
America’s failure to act earlier was the major reason for the rupture in relations between the former Afghan president Hamid Karzai and Washington and has been a big issue between President Ashraf Ghani and the US. But while Mr Trump’s intervention will strengthen Mr Ghani’s weak and vulnerable regime, it is having the opposite effect in Pakistan.
Islamabad has been in a state of political turmoil since the summer when Nawaz Sharif was forced to step down as prime minister over corruption charges. His Pakistan Muslim League continues to rule, but it is divided, faces a strident opposition and remains in conflict with the all-powerful military. Elections are due this summer but there is no certainty that they will be held on time.
Mr Sharif is bitter about his ousting and recent speeches have made clear his criticism of the army and its control over domestic and foreign policy. He has said he will disclose how the military refused to help him bring peace to Afghanistan and improve relations with India. While criticising Mr Trump, he said Pakistan should put its house in order and realise “why the world does not take us seriously”.
Mr Trump is much disliked in Pakistan, but there is sharp political polarisation over how to tackle the issue of sanctuaries. Many blame the army for years of mollycoddling extremist groups from Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir while also harbouring local extremists.
The army and its supporters have repeatedly pointed to the heavy casualties among troops fighting the Pakistani Taliban. Yet only the army itself can change policy towards those Afghan Taliban hiding in Pakistan.
While the political rightwing, led by religious parties and Islamist extremist groups, and some politicians have spearheaded anti-US protests in the streets, the military initially took a sober though hard line against American demands on Islamabad.
But many in Pakistan, especially the army, are deeply concerned that Mr Trump’s calls last year to tighten ties to India and partner with it in Afghanistan could lead to Pakistan being surrounded by its neighbour and perennial enemy.
So there have been threats of suspending US supplies into Afghanistan from the port of Karachi, shooting down US drones and restricting American use of Pakistani airspace for bombing runs across the border. The opposition leader Imran Khan and foreign minister Khawaja Asif have been particularly vociferous in anti-American sentiment, according to Reuters news agency.
Any such moves could not only widen the US-Pakistan split, but also endanger the US-led war against the Taliban and further weaken the Kabul government.
For Pakistan, deteriorating relations with the US and Nato, an economy in deep trouble and the Baluchistan situation could mean a postponement of elections for the Senate — the upper house of parliament — due in March and even the summer general election.
In Baluchistan, the chief minister Sardar Sanaullah Zehri was forced to resign on Tuesday after opposition parties brought a motion of no confidence against him.
Mr Zehri is allied to Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League and it is feared that in the likely coming uncertainty, turmoil will spread to the other three provincial assemblies. The country could then find itself in uncharted constitutional territory, with a political vacuum that would almost certainly put the army in the driving seat.
Ahsan Iqbal, interior minister, warned last week that hidden forces were creating a crisis and ‘’the overall situation in the country remains a matter of concern’’.
In tapping out that morning tweet on January 1 attacking Pakistan for “lies & deceit”, Mr Trump appeared to have no idea of the political fall out for the region and no strategy for dealing with it. Persuading Pakistan to close down its sanctuaries for extremists is a better idea than coercion.
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