Number of Balochi-speaking people in Balochistan falls

[Firdousi]

I have seen and heard Pashtuns boast that "Pashtuns are 40% of Balochistan" etc etc. Is that all just talk and nothing else?
In the other figures on the earlier thread Pashtuns were 39% of Balochistan.

And Musakhel is 79-85% Pashto speaking:
Musakhel District, Pakistan - Wikipedia
And Loralai 92%:
Loralai District - Wikipedia
(I understand these are not recent figures but how much could have changed?)

Pashtuns are always making such bold claims. In Afghanistan they are making it all the time "70% Afghansitan is Pashtun", "70% Kabul is Pashtun", "70% Herat is Pashtun". I have even met Pashtuns who claimed that Heratis are all Pashtuns who have betreyed and forgotten their Pashtun identity lol

[Kakar-Wardak]

Pashtuns are always making such bold claims. In Afghanistan they are making it all the time "70% Afghansitan is Pashtun", "70% Kabul is Pashtun", "70% Herat is Pashtun". I have even met Pashtuns who claimed that Heratis are all Pashtuns who have betreyed and forgotten their Pashtun identity lol

Tajiks are a city people, pashtuns a village people, village people always have higher birth rates.

[Firdousi]

Tajiks are a city people, pashtuns a village people, village people always have higher birth rates.

Afghanistan has a demographic problem: Afghans, regardless their ethnic or religious background, have too many children. One of the most important steps that must be taken in order to develop our country is encouraging our people to have less children. Women education is key in this regard.

Most of Tajiks don't live in urban areas btw just like not all Pashtuns are rural or nomads (Kandahar and Jalalabad are big cities and most of their inhabitants are Pashtuns). Yeah we speak different languages and have different cultures, but we have also many things in common. Lets focus on what bring us together.

[Ironhide]

Report: Demographic divide by Zia Ur Rehman

[toughpashtun]

Pashtuns are always making such bold claims. In Afghanistan they are making it all the time "70% Afghansitan is Pashtun", "70% Kabul is Pashtun", "70% Herat is Pashtun". I have even met Pashtuns who claimed that Heratis are all Pashtuns who have betreyed and forgotten their Pashtun identity lol

You have a point but in the case of Balochistan there's actually evidence from different sources which proves that at least 35% is Pashtun.
In one or two articles written during(or before) the census,the author expressed fear that the Pashtuns may surpass the number of Baloch in the province.

[Ironhide]

Pakistan: Census Complexities – Analysis

By Rana Banerji*

After a hiatus of 19 years, Pakistan has been able to undertake its sixth census enumeration only with the help of the army, which guaranteed security not only in difficult terrorism-hit areas of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) but also in areas of endemic sectarian and ethnic conflict like Karachi.

Preliminary census findings reveal that Pakistan’s population has surged to a staggering 207.8 million (207,774,520), showing an increase of 75.4 million people from 1998, when the population was just over 130 million. When the census operation kept getting deferred due to security and political considerations, the World Bank and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) had arrived at rough estimates, assessing Pakistan’s population being somewhere close to 197 million. The results have taken many by surprise, indicating an increase in population at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent annual growth rate (a.g.r.). This abnormally high growth rate should be a matter of concern for all serious population planners.

The census figures do not include any data for Gilgit Baltistan (earlier known as Northern Areas) or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK; referred to in Pakistan as Azad Jammu & Kashmir). Though the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) did conduct enumeration there, the data has not been made public, ostensibly due to their special (read ‘disputed’) status.

Rural-Urban Divide
The summary results show that the country’s predominant majority – 132.189 million or 63.6 per cent – still lives in rural areas. This ratio was 65.6 per cent in 1998. The urban population now stands at 75.58 million, which is roughly 36.4 per cent of the country’s population. In 1998, the share of the urban population was 32.52 per cent. The urban population may grow to 40 per cent by 2050 if existing growth rates continue. 30 million people were added to the urban population. Another 112 million would be added by 2050. The growing urbanisation reflects a world-wide trend.

Gender Ratio and Literacy
The male-female ratio was found to be close to the world average of 51:49, coming down slightly from 52:48 in 1998. Literacy data has not been made public so far. In 1998, for males it stood at 54.8 per cent and for females, at 43.02 per cent.



Provinces
Punjab now has 52.9 per cent (down from 55 percent in 1998) of Pakistan’s total population (110,012,442; a.g.r.: 2.13 percent). Sind remains unchanged with 23 percent (47,886,051; a.g.r.: 2.4 percent). Population growth has been highest in Balochistan (12,344,408; a.g.r.: 3.37 percent), followed by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (30,523,371; a.g.r.: 2.89 percent). The lowest population growth (1.81 percent) was witnessed in rural Punjab – urbanisation might have had a greater role to play here. FATA is now shown to have 5,001,676 persons (not clear if currently displaced; in camps elsewhere in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa enumerated under FATA, the a.g.r. was 2.41 percent). Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) has 2,006,572 people now (a.g.r.: 4.91 percent).

These changes will have important repercussions in the distribution of resources and allocation of national assembly seats. Article 51(3) of the constitution will have to be amended in light of Article 51(5), which mandates the allocation of seats on the basis of population in accordance with the last preceding census officially published. This would mean up to eight fewer seats for Punjab in the 342-member National Assembly with 5-6 more seats for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and almost 3 more for Balochistan.

The next National Finance Commission (NFC) award will have to be announced, with Punjab having to compromise slightly (a 3.3 per cent reduction of its share) in favour of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

Internally displaced tribals and Afghan refugees have added huge numbers in both Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Quetta division alone has shown an almost tripling of the population, from 1.72 million to 4.2 million. Pashtuns may now exceed Baloch in Balochistan, making them numerical losers in their own province. Census data shows a phenomenal decease in their (Baloch) proportion in northern parts of the province – 2.1 per cent decrease in Zhob and Nasirabad, 1.6 per cent in Kalat division, 1.6 per cent in Sibi, and 0.6 per cent in Makran. In Punjab, Lahore and several other satellite towns like Gujranwala have shown phenomenal growth. There was a lower growth in the Seraiki belt due to out-migration.

Though its overall population share has not changed, Sindh is in a special quandary. It is the most urbanised province with 52.2 per cent of the population in urban areas – this result could disturb the rural-urban quotas of provincial assembly seats and jobs. More resources, jobs, and representation would have to be provided for urban areas. Rural Sindh is going to lose some representation. Urban Sindh is increasingly becoming non-Urdu speaking, with settlers’ onslaught of both Pashtuns from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, as also the natural influx of Sindhis from rural areas of the province. 68 per cent of Sind’s total population is concentrated in three major cities – Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur.

Though Karachi’s population growth has been stymied by bloody ethnic politics, lawlessness and the prolonged Rangers’ operations, its overall population increased by 60 per cent. The greater the growth of population in Karachi, the worse will be the loss of the numerical strength of Mohajirs. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which represents mainly Sindhi rights, will fight against the perceived ‘bias’ of under-representing Sindhis. The Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM), now split into several factions, will be reluctant to concede ground to Pashtuns or Sindhis in greater Karachi urban agglomeration. The Awami National Party (ANP) led by Shahi Syed, and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) will contest support from new Pashtun settlers.

The preliminary census figures have been referred to the Council for Common Interests (CCI), a statutory body under the 1973 constitution. The CCI has now decided that the figures will be further debated in the Inter-Provincial Coordination Committee (IPCC) to devise a strategy about future policy on job quotas, fund allocation and the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) plan of action to adjust/delimit constituencies afresh. The ECP had earlier informed the government that it may hold the next general election on the basis of the new census results if they are finalised in time. The million dollar question now is, when will these changes happen?

* Rana Banerji
Member, IPCS Governing Council, & former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India

Pakistan: Census Complexities – Analysis – Eurasia Review

[maneatinglizard]

Has anyone disputed the numbers yet? I imagine Balochi separatists probably won't accept them at least.

[Ironhide]

Contesting Census Results

Only Punjabies are comfortable with the results for obvious reasons. However, even after grossly understating population of Pashtuns in FATA, Pakistan has become almost a quarter Pashto Speaking.. so that means more political clout in sindh, Baluchistan and even KPK for pashtuns.

[Ironhide]

In the matter of Baluch separatist.. They have to contend with the fact that any future of their movement will have to have pashtun as part of equation. Only KPK and Punjab are homogeneous, some what, in terms of Ethnicites.. more than 70% of Punjab Being Punjabi and Around 80% of KPK being Pashtun.

Both Sindhies and Baluchies are hovering around 50% in their respective provinces..

Finally, do we really expect Baluchs to manage pashtuns and other ethnic groups in Baluchistan.. considering Baluchs number, education and plethora of other ethnicity...

[Firdousi]

You have a point but in the case of Balochistan there's actually evidence from different sources which proves that at least 35% is Pashtun.
In one or two articles written during(or before) the census,the author expressed fear that the Pashtuns may surpass the number of Baloch in the province.

I am not denying that Pashtuns make up majority in Herat or Afghanistan or whatever. This might be true but claims need to be backed up with evidences. Sicne no serious and reliable census has ever been conducted in Afghanistan and Pakistan (due to political reasons, lack of means, etc) we ignore the ground realities of our countries when it comes to demography and so on.

I just want people to back up their claims and provide evidences. Without that I cant take nothing seriously. Thats it.

BTW never been to Pakistan so I dont know really whats going on in there, but my dad has several times visited Quetta and he told me its more like a Pashtun city than Baluch. He told me that even Quetta Pashto sounds quite similar to Kandahari Pashto.

[Samandri]

In the matter of Baluch separatist.. They have to contend with the fact that any future of their movement will have to have pashtun as part of equation. Only KPK and Punjab are homogeneous, some what, in terms of Ethnicites.. more than 70% of Punjab Being Punjabi and Around 80% of KPK being Pashtun.

Both Sindhies and Baluchies are hovering around 50% in their respective provinces..

Finally, do we really expect Baluchs to manage pashtuns and other ethnic groups in Baluchistan.. considering Baluchs number, education and plethora of other ethnicity...

The next immediate and obvious target of Baluch nationalists after Punjab will be Afghanistan/Pashtuns, if they ever succeed in their current endeavor. There are Baluch areas in Afghanistan and they will be hopeful to wrest it from weak Afghanistan. Moreover they claim entirety of Quetta and Sibi , this will cause confrontation with Pashtuns of Baluchistan , big chunk of whom are types of nationalists who are wary of Baluch nationalists. Baluchs are themselves tribal and armed people and they settle matters with guns. Episode of Chamalang coal mines should be an eye-opener and a case study.

[toughpashtun]

I am not denying that Pashtuns make up majority in Herat or Afghanistan or whatever. This might be true but claims need to be backed up with evidences. Sicne no serious and reliable census has ever been conducted in Afghanistan and Pakistan (due to political reasons, lack of means, etc) we ignore the ground realities of our countries when it comes to demography and so on.

I just want people to back up their claims and provide evidences. Without that I cant take nothing seriously. Thats it.

BTW never been to Pakistan so I dont know really whats going on in there, but my dad has several times visited Quetta and he told me its more like a Pashtun city than Baluch. He told me that even Quetta Pashto sounds quite similar to Kandahari Pashto.

Agreed.

[Aham Brahmasmi]

Are pakistani Punjabi-Muhajirs are playing with numbers to start new Baloch-Lashtun fight ? When i read the artical, i feel like "daal main kuch kaala hain"...

[Aham Brahmasmi]

The next immediate and obvious target of Baluch nationalists after Punjab will be Afghanistan/Pashtuns, if they ever succeed in their current endeavor. There are Baluch areas in Afghanistan and they will be hopeful to wrest it from weak Afghanistan. Moreover they claim entirety of Quetta and Sibi , this will cause confrontation with Pashtuns of Baluchistan , big chunk of whom are types of nationalists who are wary of Baluch nationalists. Baluchs are themselves tribal and armed people and they settle matters with guns. Episode of Chamalang coal mines should be an eye-opener and a case study.

Same with rajputs, or used tobe. Rajputs today are becoming more and more "non-martial". Tere was a time when rajputs used to kill their opponents in brutual ways (torturing, burning alive, skinning alive etc. Etc.) Armed to teeth and ready to fight. Now as anangpal saga showed, rajputs are much softer today.

Toobad you dont have rajputs competing for land near you. Except 12,000 in sindh. Imagin delta War between Pashtuns from North West, baloch in south and Rajputs in East. :D