US SIGAR: Afghan government lost 15% of its territory to insurgency

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Afghan government ‘has lost territory to the insurgency’ | FDD's Long War Journal

The Afghan government “has lost territory to the insurgency” and “district control continues to decline,” the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said in its most recent quarterly report to United States Congress. An estimated 15 percent of Afghanistan’s districts have slipped from the government’s control over that time period.

The picture is more bleak than what the Obama administration and top military commanders have let on when looked at from a longer distance. According to SIGAR, the Afghan government controls or influences just 52 percent of the nation’s districts today compared to 72 percent in Nov. 2015.
“SIGAR’s analysis of the most recent data provided by US Forces in Afghanistan (USFOR-A) suggests that the security situation in Afghanistan has not improved this quarter,” the watchdog group noted in its most recent assessment of the country. “The numbers of the Afghan security forces are decreasing, while both casualties and the number of districts under insurgent control or influence are increasing.”

“[T]he ANDSF [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces] has not yet been capable of securing all of Afghanistan and has lost territory to the insurgency,” since the last reporting period. The Afghan government has lost control of more than six percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts since SIGAR issued its last report, on Oct. 30.

According to SIGAR, the insurgency, which is overwhelmingly made up of the Taliban, now controls nine districts and influences another 32, while 133 districts are “contested.” USFOR-A defines contested districts as “having ‘negligible meaningful impact from insurgents,’ contending that neither the insurgency nor the Afghan government maintains significant control over these areas.”

[khushal]

The warlords that control certain parts of the country are independent from the gov. The reality is that outside the major cities they really have no control. The proof is that Ashraf Ghani can not drive from Kabul to Kandahar, he has to fly there.

[Shapur]

At the end of the day, the Islam of Taliban has been thoroughly rejected by the majority of muslims.
Nobody wants to live under their interpretation of Islam except a minority of people.
So it doesn't really matter at the end of the day even if the Taliban regain control, their ideology has no appeal to the masses in the long run and thats where they will fail, not necessarily on the battlefield.
Not saying the slave mentality of the puppet government is any better, both will fail and the will of the Afghan people will prevail which is neither represented by the puppet government nor the insurgents.

[khushal]

At the end of the day, the Islam of Taliban has been thoroughly rejected by the majority of muslims.
Nobody wants to live under their interpretation of Islam except a minority of people.
So it doesn't really matter at the end of the day even if the Taliban regain control, their ideology has no appeal to the masses in the long run and thats where they will fail, not necessarily on the battlefield.
Not saying the slave mentality of the puppet government is any better, both will fail and the will of the Afghan people will prevail which is neither represented by the puppet government nor the insurgents.

The client regime doesn't have a slave mentality but more of a Klepto mentality. They just want to steal as much as possible and get out of town. they have no regards for the people or the nation.

While the Taliban version of Islam is extreme and all extreme ideologies die out very quickly. It is their extreme version of justice that can quickly stamp out all the criminality that is rampant and the cause of so much suffering of the Afghan people.

Societies evolve Shapur but right now the Afghan people hunger for justice and they will support the ones that can deliver it. The Afghan Gov has completely failed in this regard.