Gaurdian: How Kundoz was a Taliban Win

[marwat]

Wrong. They are motivated by dollars and love for adolescents boys rectal cavity.

really? how you know that?

[Shamlawar Khurasani]

really? how you know that?

Havent you read numerous articles and haven't you seen all the videos about ANA?

[marwat]

Havent you read numerous articles and haven't you seen all the videos about ANA?

but this is not what i concluded

[Bengal_Tiger]

Hekmatyar's Hezb i Islami is to stop fighting.





Afghanistan is slowly moving towards stability. Abandoning camouflague gear, for western suits and smarter beards and civilian politics.





Afghan government to sign peace deal with Hezb i Islami.










*Entering Taliban-supporter mode.*

"OMG, OMG KUNDUZ HAS FALLEN......THE AFGHAN NATIONAL GOVERNMENT IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE!!!!"

*Leaving Taliban-supporter mode.*

Kunduz did not amount to anything and if anything showed how weak the Taliban really were, unable to hold a city.

In Syria the rebels took Idlib and still hold it.

Hekmatyar knows that the national government and military are too strong and presumably he and his "friends" in Pakistan also know that the Russia-China-India-Iran-Turkey-Central Asia coalition against the Taliban will never allow Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban.

Russia would probably consider a Syria-style intervention with Afghan permission if that were to happen.

The Iraqi army are crushing ISIS in Iraq partly due to Chinese military support and the Afghan army is being supported by Russia and China to defeat ISIS's equivalent in Afghanistan, the Taliban.

[DaZahroJaam.]

shalmawar has no class.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Hekmatyar's Hezb i Islami is to stop fighting.





Afghanistan is slowly moving towards stability. Abandoning camouflague gear, for western suits and smarter beards and civilian politics.





Afghan government to sign peace deal with Hezb i Islami.










*Entering Taliban-supporter mode.*

"OMG, OMG KUNDUZ HAS FALLEN......THE AFGHAN NATIONAL GOVERNMENT IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE!!!!"

*Leaving Taliban-supporter mode.*

Kunduz did not amount to anything and if anything showed how weak the Taliban really were, unable to hold a city.

In Syria the rebels took Idlib and still hold it.

Hekmatyar knows that the national government and military are too strong and presumably he and his "friends" in Pakistan also know that the Russia-China-India-Iran-Turkey-Central Asia coalition against the Taliban will never allow Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban.

Russia would probably consider a Syria-style intervention with Afghan permission if that were to happen.

The Iraqi army are crushing ISIS in Iraq partly due to Chinese military support and the Afghan army is being supported by Russia and China to defeat ISIS's equivalent in Afghanistan, the Taliban.

Salamoona BT

I think this is a mis interpretation of events. Those that knew what Hekmetyar was doing in the 1980s are not surprised. Additionally, this does not really affect the situation in Helmand and the Talib heart land if at all. Here is a great analysis of the situation:

Almost Signed? The peace agreement with Hezb-e IslamiAfghanistan Analysts Network | Afghanistan Analysts Network

key points:

1. Its been no surprise and going on for some time

In contrast to the Taleban’s rejectionist position, Hezb had not just initiated, but had keenly pursued talks with the government in Kabul under Karzai. This can be largely explained by the fact that a peace deal was always likely to increase, possibly even inflate, Hezb’s political and military relevance – both in the run-up to and after any eventual agreement.

2. The history of the Taliban affiliates and Hizbe was already variant...

The two groups started as rivals when the Taleban emerged in the mid-1990s. The Taleban then defeated Hezb on its way from Kandahar to Kabul and absorbed a number of its fighters; Hekmatyar had to give up his headquarters in Chahrasyab, south of Kabul, under their first their onslaught in early 1995 and fled to Iran a year later...

3. No change in the military calculation whatsoever:

Hezb’s comparatively low military impact on the current battlefield means that the agreement is unlikely to result in a major shift in the strategic balance between the insurgency and the government forces.

4. From the Hizbe Political wing... its been Abdullah Abdullah and not Ghani that has benefited lol, meaning that its hardly a win win situation for Pashtuns:

There are three groups: the registered mainstream party, led by Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, who was economy minister under Karzai, that supported Abdullah in the 2014 election...

He said he had already enjoyed the support of Hezb’s registered wing during the 2014 elections and was now ready to sit down with Hekmatyar for a meal in a sign of reconciliation.

5. The impact on the government of absorbing the group lol, may actually be negative toward the Westernization/Democratization by force and fiat goals:

Although any cessation or decrease of violence will be welcomed by the population and it is clear that the government is keen to show success after the difficulties in its talks with the Taleban, the text of the agreement does suggest that the ‘peace’ may be bought rather expensively... The experience of the NUG should serve as a warning that the division of government between different camps that need to negotiate every major decision and appointment along formulas reflecting power arithmetics, greatly complicates the business of governing. It hampers the prospects for reform and development, and threatens to bring the government to the point of paralysis.

So I would say rather, Afghanistan is slowly moving toward instability .... and that the assessment that the government remains propped up by Northern alliance remnant forces and Western powers and remains grossly inadequate in being able to defeat the insurgency remains the accurate one.

That being said, wonders never cease... who knows? I've been right a number of times and wrong a few and am always fascinated by the curve balls of life. The new Taliban leader/cleric may come to the table