PM Nawaz says working for revival of Afghan peace talks

[Bengal_Tiger]

View PostUnread Yesterday, 08:51 PM
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Stop quoting me.

I have no desire to interact with some ultra-nationalist Pakistani from defence.pk, where they talk about nuking Afghanistan, India and even Pakistan (FATA) nearly every day or week.

[Bengal_Tiger]

Making peace should be Afghanistan's first priority. No matter from which perspective we look, it will only benefit Afghanistan, both short termed and long termed.

Currently Pakistan's only trump card is Taliban. Which they can use indirectly as a blackmail. Now imagine if they happens to be part of the Afghan government. What will they be able to do, to have a barging toll against Afghanistan... nothing. If Taliban are part of the government, any support given to them will directly go the Afghan government.

In the other hand, the Pakistanis will still have major insurgency going on. Baloch independents movement and TTP. Afghanistan will be politically in better position. Afghans would be arranging the peace talks, not the other way around. Especially considering the close relation between Afghan Taliban and TTP.

The other plus side is, that Afghans can solely focus on eradicating corruption and improving the economy. As it currently stands, all our focus is directed toward combating insurgency, while the criminals runs wild. We will be able solve our internal problems and make an investing friendly environment.

If the reason people don't want to negotiate with Taliban is due to their brutality, then there exist far worse people in the government. So this statement will be invalid.

All in all, peace should be the first priority. It will give us more regional importance. We shouldn't expect China or Russia to come and save us, because they will not. In terms of importance, Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan to them. They know, we know, that Afghanistan's economy and military is sustained by the US. Russia and China at their best will be able to win a few hearts and minds, but that their limit from political perspective. The only way Afghanistan will be a desirable partner for China and Russia is, if Afghanistan become worth investing in economically and militarily.

We can be in denial as much as we want, but the most important and essential thing for Afghanistan is peace right now.

Good post, everything you say makes sense. However can the Taliban be accommodated in to power-sharing government? Even if the "moderate" Taliban could then the extremists would never join the Afghan government as they believe democracy is "haram" (forbidden for guest readers) or "kufr" (disbelief).

Russia is paying attention to what goes on in Afghanistan, this is what a Russian army chief said 3 days ago.

The member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) should pool their efforts in order to prevent the use of Afghanistan as a tool for aggravating the situation in Central Asia, Sergei Istrakov, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, said at an international conference on Afghanistan on Thursday.

"The emerging military-political situation in Central Asia and its estimated future indicate that the SCO member states’ joint efforts to negate the regional security threats emanating from Afghanistan are badly needed.

Link

"There are currently up to 50,000 militants in Afghanistan united into more than 4,000 units and groups of different kinds. The core is the Islamic Movement Taliban with more than 40,000 militants," Gerasimov said at the opening of the international conference on Afghanistan.



Extremists’ active resistance to government forces does not allow official Kabul to stabilized the political and social-economic situation in the country, leads to unjustified casualties and growing refugee flow to neighboring countries and then to Europe, Gerasimov noted.

Link

[Talal]

Making peace should be Afghanistan's first priority. No matter from which perspective we look, it will only benefit Afghanistan, both short termed and long termed.

Currently Pakistan's only trump card is Taliban. Which they can use indirectly as a blackmail. Now imagine if they happens to be part of the Afghan government. What will they be able to do, to have a barging toll against Afghanistan... nothing. If Taliban are part of the government, any support given to them will directly go the Afghan government.

In the other hand, the Pakistanis will still have major insurgency going on. Baloch independents movement and TTP. Afghanistan will be politically in better position. Afghans would be arranging the peace talks, not the other way around. Especially considering the close relation between Afghan Taliban and TTP.

The other plus side is, that Afghans can solely focus on eradicating corruption and improving the economy. As it currently stands, all our focus is directed toward combating insurgency, while the criminals runs wild. We will be able solve our internal problems and make an investing friendly environment.

If the reason people don't want to negotiate with Taliban is due to their brutality, then there exist far worse people in the government. So this statement will be invalid.

All in all, peace should be the first priority. It will give us more regional importance. We shouldn't expect China or Russia to come and save us, because they will not. In terms of importance, Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan to them. They know, we know, that Afghanistan's economy and military is sustained by the US. Russia and China at their best will be able to win a few hearts and minds, but that their limit from political perspective. The only way Afghanistan will be a desirable partner for China and Russia is, if Afghanistan become worth investing in economically and militarily.

We can be in denial as much as we want, but the most important and essential thing for Afghanistan is peace right now.

But how do you achieve said peace ? Lets look at the options and readers are welcome to point out the options that I can't see.

1) Pursue genuine peace talks with Taliban. First of all this is out of question in the backdrop of Kunduz. Even if somehow these talks were to be facilitated who would be the parties in this ? Taliban would be one and indirectly Pakistan as well if it facilitates these talks but who from the Afghan government side ? Last I checked the CEO & Mr. President are unable to agree on the most basic & essential policies despite both of them being educated individuals. The power sharing formula has become entirely convoluted and has caused Afghanistan much greater harm. Call him a cocaine addict but atleast Karzai was someone you could talk to.

2) Convince Americans to increase military support and bring more boots on the ground. The premise here is that if they stick around a bit longer it will give Afghan government time to consolidate their peace strategy and help the Afghan security forces develop better. We can't forget that the americans have been here for a decade and half now, if at the peak of NATO deployment and 350000 strong Army they couldn't wipe out the Taliban then it is not happening. You cannot defeat the Taliban until there are foreign boots on the ground & and without those boots you really dont have the capacity, willpower & nationwide consensus that is required to beat an ideological foe like the Taliban. Remember in Pakistan's case it wasn't the tanks or the jets rather soldiers knowing they were fighting for a cause and a nation believing in them.

3) Allow Afghanistan to be partitioned along ethnic lines ? I believe this will be a DEFCON 1 situation for all the countries surrounding Asia. Besides proponents of this idea falsely believe that if Afghanistan is divided the Taliban will be just content with governing their own country, no they will still come after you borders or no borders.

4) Intensify use of proxy assets against Pakistan so that it can be compelled to give up its policy. I do believe and you can say I am biased as I am from Pakistan, but I do sincerely believe that Pakistan's internal security mechanism have been improved to a huge extent. The military exercise has proved to be a success for now. How these areas are looked after post military ops will determine the true success/failure of this operation. If Pakistan decides to maintain status quo with FCR like black laws it will find history knocking at its doors again. So this option would just hurt Afghanistan more than it would Pakistan as it would retaliate.

5) Government does its job, introduces reforms, helps alleviate poverty and look after its people. I don't have much to say on this cows would play Jazz before Ghani & Co. get their sh**t together.

[marwat]

peace talks are the only option. all other are dead ends

[Khostai]

peace talks are the only option. all other are dead ends

Peace talks are not possible. The only taliban that want to talk are Pakistans stooges, the hard core taliban who do all the fighting still think that Allah will grant them victory and don't want to talk with the current goverment. So what is the point of peace talks when there would be no peace?

[Khostai]

However still the major blame is not on Pakistan, altough they have their big share in this mess, the bigest problem was the Karzai goverment who failed to bring stability and economic development. Thanks to him and and his corrupt goverment billions of dollars are wasted, those money could have been used to strenghthen the state, and Taliban would have faded away. But he did not do that and all of you blame Ghani for the current state, its the same as like some people blame Obama for the bad economy and the wars, like he astarted the wars.....

[marwat]

Peace talks are not possible. The only taliban that want to talk are Pakistans stooges, the hard core taliban who do all the fighting still think that Allah will grant them victory and don't want to talk with the current goverment. So what is the point of peace talks when there would be no peace?

that's not the way how leadership and the relation between him and follower work. hard core talib who do fighting is meant for fighting not for diplomacy. beside talib are not that much khar we assume. they know war and diplomacy can run in parallel for any political outcome, if diplomacy can achieve the objective , that's a better option.

[Loy Afghanistan]

However still the major blame is not on Pakistan, altough they have their big share in this mess, the bigest problem was the Karzai goverment who failed to bring stability and economic development. Thanks to him and and his corrupt goverment billions of dollars are wasted, those money could have been used to strenghthen the state, and Taliban would have faded away. But he did not do that and all of you blame Ghani for the current state, its the same as like some people blame Obama for the bad economy and the wars, like he astarted the wars.....

I may agree but still. It is US aka JEWSA who ruled and still rules those puppets. They knew and know very well a stable and independent Afghanistan/Pashtunistan will be threat to their other puppets in the region such as Porkistan etc. US main goal is to use Afghanistan resources, and soil as base of operation. They do not give a damn about the rest. And yes it is important for US/PORKISTAN/SAUDI ARABIA etc to have a weak Afghanistan because THEY KNOW very well, the true and pure noble Pashtuns would kick all foreign parasites as soon they get the power over all our Pashtunistan.

This is simple goal used in many countries since 1950. Even European parasites colonizing Africa got the taste of African revenge when the independent and educated Africans rose up against their Europeans master after ww2 because Germany weakened major parasites such as UK, France, Spain etc.

But we are still here no matter the 80 nations and enemies we got. The first chance in the future when our power grows and the power shifts, the porkis, arabs and mix raced haramis like americunts and other sub humans who have done our precious and holy Pashtunistan harm will know the true meaning of our wrath. Trust me on this. Of course we will start with their elites, and going down in the food chain. It will be wrong to start with the peasant/ghulamis and brainwashed savages like Dannu Bannu Kuni bazingar, and other keyboard porkis here to talk shiit against our pure Noble ancestors and our Pashtunwali.

[khushal]

Pakis can bring a few talib leaders to the table but they cant deliver the fighting men in the battle field. A tribal soceity has no central leadership so it is very difficult to bring all of them to the same conclusion.

The pakis had the same problem with the TTP. Ghani is a moron for thinking this is possible.

[marwat]

Pakis can bring a few talib leaders to the table but they cant deliver the fighting men in the battle field. A tribal soceity has no central leadership so it is very difficult to bring all of them to the same conclusion.

The pakis had the same problem with the TTP. Ghani is a moron for thinking this is possible.

you are very ignorant person and have no clue about the insurgency and have no knowledge about the taliban movement. you change your colour according to the thread and your ego. your claims are very childish.

[randolph85]

Pakistan has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the Kabul government by not targeting Afghan Taliban on their soil, or even pretending to put on a show by arresting/attacking some. Pakistan does not look good by basically saying they can guarantee talks because of their influence but have not raised a finger against the Afghan Taliban despite the rhetoric of "our enemies are the same blah blah blah."

If Ghani were smart, he would continue support to the TTP because despite his bending over backwards to Pakistan, they boned him and kept on with their same policies.

Not that I support any of these people, just an outsider looking in. The sooner Ghani, Pakistan, Taliban(Afghan/Paki) are gone, the better.

[marwat]

today some haqqani militants who are back home were saying that this time there will be bloody fighting in winter too. i wonder is that possible?

[Samandri]

today some haqqani militants who are back home were saying that this time there will be bloody fighting in winter too. i wonder is that possible?

They are back home due to approach of winter so do they mean indigenous Taliban there carrying on fight in the winter?. May be they are saying so because they have acquired some space to operate, will be less into hidings, and will have lesser threat from NATO's air power due to the declined presence.

Using imagination, i think operating in the urban centers to carry out some blasts is not an issue in winter. But carrying out insurgency in mountainous tracts in the extreme winter of Afghanistan, is no joke. Lightening fire in mountains at night would reveal your location if you are engaged with enemy, and without fire, you might freeze to death. If at winter , hilltops of Waziristan are covered with snow, same would be the case with hills in Afghanistan. It might be, that they are going for large numbered skirmishes in lowlands to create scenes like Musa Qila and Kunduz.

[marwat]

They are back home due to approach of winter so do they mean indigenous Taliban there carrying on fight in the winter?. May be they are saying so because they have acquired some space to operate, will be less into hidings, and will have lesser threat from NATO's air power due to the declined presence.

Using imagination, i think operating in the urban centers to carry out some blasts is not an issue in winter. But carrying out insurgency in mountainous tracts in the extreme winter of Afghanistan, is no joke. Lightening fire in mountains at night would reveal your location if you are engaged with enemy, and without fire, you might freeze to death. If at winter , hilltops of Waziristan are covered with snow, same would be the case with hills in Afghanistan. It might be, that they are going for large numbered skirmishes in lowlands to create scenes like Musa Qila and Kunduz.

but it's not 2001, where 100 of fighter jets constantly looming in air, right? today it's the taliban searching for ANA check post and not the other way around. talib don't hid in caves . control line exist in every major district.
in helmand it was always like this ' beyond this particular house that's a taliban area and we are not allowed to cross this puppy field' US marine saying. helmand, nimroz and kandahar are mostly deserts. talib can put a good fight there in winter too.

[Khostai]

that's not the way how leadership and the relation between him and follower work. hard core talib who do fighting is meant for fighting not for diplomacy. beside talib are not that much khar we assume. they know war and diplomacy can run in parallel for any political outcome, if diplomacy can achieve the objective , that's a better option.

the so called diplomatic talibs are just streching time by the so called peace talks. They just want to win time to mobilize en atack.