Former Alec Station Head: Why Putin, Assad, and Europe will Lose

[BarakzaiAbdali]

He has had some very successfull (common sense) evidence based prognostications. For example, when he wrote pre Mumbai about the possibility of something occurring:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JI20Df02.html

And the subsequent events occurred a few months thereafter.

Now we see Michael Scheuer providing much input based on history and his personal experiences.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Take the Russian Gift Horse’s gift and run like hell to North America


One has to be amazed at the number of chances to save itself that America keeps encountering and refusing to grasp and exploit in the Arab world. We were safely out of Iraq when Obama and the Republicans returned us to that hell hole created by Mr. Bush, Mr. Blair, and Israel First. We were safely and serenely sitting on the sidelines and happily watching the descent of the Muslim world into a massive sectarian war when Obama signed us up to fight on the side of both Saudi Arabia and Iran, thereby knowingly and deservedly earning the hatred of Sunnis and Shias. We were completely out of harm’s way from the migrant mess the effeminate Europeans are either too stupid or too cowardly to halt, and Obama, his party, and the Republicans have sent a half billion dollars of our taxes for the EU to waste while it commits suicide-by-migrant, and now want to bring 100,000 migrants into an already migrant-drowning and internally insecure America.

Now, miraculously, another and perhaps last chance to save ourselves has fallen into our increasingly unworthy laps. As our enemies would say, “God is great!” Russian President Putin is moving military forces into Syria, and seems to have concluded a deal with Iran which will see Tehran occupy the Shia areas of Iraq once the nuclear deal cannot be undone. In addition, the media report that our European “allies” are moving in Putin’s direction, with chancellors, prime ministers, pundits, and politicians in Italy, France, Germany, Britain, and elsewhere claiming that the West needs to be more “realistic” and ally itself with Russia, Syria, and — implicitly — Iran to defeat the Islamic State. And, finally, Thursday’s FOX news brought word that Israel has signed up with Putin and his Arab and Persian sidekicks by setting up “a joint mechanism with the Russian military to coordinate their operations in Syria and avoid any accidental confrontations.”

In the space of the foregoing paragraph readers can see that, under Mr. Putin’s auspices, all of the following enemies of the United States will soon be killing each other in the Syria-Iraq theater: Russia, Syria, Lebanese Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, other Syrian Islamist groups, the Islamic State, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. The killing will be applauded and temporarily supported by the EU’s taxpayer monies, aircraft, and an accommodation with Assad, while it simultaneously and desperately tries to stave off the need send any of Europe’s tiny — except for Turkey — and antiquated armies to the war. Israel’s deal with Russia — which implicitly approves Moscow’s military plans for Syria, as well as Iran’s in Iraq — is surprising because no matter how the approaching disaster ends, it will render terrible news for Israel’s security.

The Russian, Iranian, and EU intervention on Assad’s behalf will, of course, damage their already bankrupt economies, raise Shia-vs-Sunni tensions in Europe, and unite Russia’s Sunni mujahedin in the North Caucasus and motivate them to step up attacks. The intervention will also be another case of a Western — or, in Moscow’s case, perhaps semi-Western — led invasion of Muslim territory, and it will be seen by the Sunni world as an action meant to provide victory and territorial expansion to the hated Shia and Alawite heretics. Needless to say — save for those who govern Western states — this intervention will again validate all the Islamic State has said about the Crusaders’ hatred for and threat to the existence of Sunni Islam.

As is the case in each Western intervention in the Islamic world, a Russian-led intervention also will fast become the Islamic State’s most capable recruiter, and new fighters will flow in from across the Islamic world and/or they will stage attacks in their home countries. Because of Moscow’s clear intention to help Iran achieve primacy in the region, moreover, the Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis, and other Arab tyrannies will continue publicly damning IS, while at the same time beginning to clandestinely send money and arms to IS, al-Qaeda, and any other organization willing to kill Shias and the Russians and Europeans who back them.

And the outcome of all of this will be the defeat of Russia and its allies and helpers, a victory for the Islamists that will ensure the accelerated growth of their worldwide movement, the likely consolidation of the IS caliphate in Syria and Iraq, and a massive increase in the flow of migrants to Europe. Why?

Well, first, in three recent wars against the Islamists — Afghanistan and two in Chechnya — the Russians have lost two and tied one, and the latter will cross over into the lost category once Moscow’s actions in Syria unite the mujahedin in North Caucasus and they undertake military activity in earnest.

Second, today’s Russians wage war much more mercilessly than the West, but these Russians are not Stalin’s boys. They ran out of determination, money, and patience in Afghanistan and gave up after racking-up high but not sufficient kill totals against both Afghan insurgents and civilians. In the first Chechen war they simply were beaten. To defeat the Islamists in Syria-Iraq, the Russian military will have to kill at least as well as the Red Army did to win its war against the Wehrmacht or as the United States Marine Corps did against the Japanese imperial forces. Indeed, the latter probably is the only method of military operation with a good chance of success in fighting the mujahedin. The Marines learned quickly that Japanese serviceman gave and expected no quarter. The Marines mastered that code of behavior and mercilessly killed as many Japanese fighting-to-the-death for the glory of their god-emperor as was required. And even with the Marine’s success, two Japanese cities were rightly incinerated to prompt Tokyo’s surrender and avoid what would have been for both sides a bloody invasion of Japan, an invasion with attendant fighting that would have killed far more Japanese — not least because of their eagerness to die for the emperor — than did the nuclear attacks.

Third, the Russians will discover the absolutely lethal handicap of going to war with contemporary European states as allies or supporters. Putin and his generals will find that none of the Europeans know that war involves killing or that fighting Islamist forces and winning means killing massive numbers of them and their active civilian supporters and silent abettors. It is not much different than fighting the Japanese Empire, in fact. But as soon as Russian and Iranian forces start to kill the enemy, the Europeans will start whining — as they did in the Afghan and Iraq wars — that too many people are dying, civilians are being killed, old ruins are being demolished, and the Russian military does not have adequate numbers of homosexuals, feminists, nifty transgender folks, and other such privileged minority groups in their ranks.

Poor old Putin will wish he had never heard of the Europeans, who are great to have as enemies because they are militarily weak, womanish, decadent, and feckless, but are terrible allies for exactly the same reasons. Putin, however, will have the last laugh. His intervention in Syria will create a wave of migrants that will dwarf the current wave and it will completely undo the EU and European leaders, men and women who have absolutely no idea of how to defend their nations and appear to doubt whether Europe is even worth defending.

So by sheer and unmerited good fortune, the United States has one last chance to pack up and voluntarily get out of the Arab world lock, stock, and barrel, before we are disgracefully driven out by the mujahedin. Safely back in North America, the bankrupt, authoritarian, incompetent, and lawless U.S. government can watch the exorbitant price of unnecessary overseas interventions and wars be paid for in the funds and soldier-children of other nations.

There is not much chance that the current bipartisan governing class will learn a lesson and act appropriately, but an observant American public will watch and recognize that from the beginning of the war in Syria to how and whenever it ends, the genuine national interests of the United States were never once at risk. They can then use that knowledge and vote for the most genuinely America First candidate they can identify in 2016.

[BarakzaiAbdali]

Key Take Home points:

1. Israel has signed onto an effort galvanized by Putin, Assad, Shiite Iraq, and Iran to destroy the sunni insurgency.

2. All of America's adversaries will be fighting each other and depleting each other's strength in one theater of war. The possibility exists that if the US stands back, it could come out of this in the better position. Scheuer seems to indicate in other writings that the ruling elite have a hard time doing this and may thrust themselves into this somehow.

3. It will galvanize the Sunnis further, and per this CIA agent, provide further evidence basis to their claim that Iran, Russia, China, India, Europe and the US generally are working together to limit Sunni ascendancy:

The Russian, Iranian, and EU intervention on Assad’s behalf will, of course, damage their already bankrupt economies, raise Shia-vs-Sunni tensions in Europe, and unite Russia’s Sunni mujahedin in the North Caucasus and motivate them to step up attacks. The intervention will also be another case of a Western — or, in Moscow’s case, perhaps semi-Western — led invasion of Muslim territory, and it will be seen by the Sunni world as an action meant to provide victory and territorial expansion to the hated Shia and Alawite heretics. Needless to say — save for those who govern Western states — this intervention will again validate all the Islamic State has said about the Crusaders’ hatred for and threat to the existence of Sunni Islam.

4. The actions in 3 will result in further recruitment:

5. Russians wage merciless war, but still have not shown adequate results. They will lose this is well:

And the outcome of all of this will be the defeat of Russia and its allies and helpers, a victory for the Islamists that will ensure the accelerated growth of their worldwide movement, the likely consolidation of the IS caliphate in Syria and Iraq, and a massive increase in the flow of migrants to Europe.

[Insight]

[QUOTE]

Key Take Home points:

1. Israel has signed onto an effort galvanized by Putin, Assad, Shiite Iraq, and Iran to destroy the sunni insurgency.

This is the only part Scheuer is factually incorrect about.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/israel-s-netanyahu-says-moscow-talks-aimed-at-preventing-clashes-in-middle-east/41673452

Netanyahu's meeting with Putin was entirely about Israel not wanting to come into clashes with Russians as they strike at Assad-Iran-Hezbollah axis. Israel states that they strike at arm shipments from Assad and Iran to Hezbollah

http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-israel-retains-its-freedom-to-act-in-syria/

“We have something to say on this matter. We have no intention of giving up our freedom to act and defend our clear red lines – not allowing the transfer of advanced weapon systems to Hezbollah, [and] certainly not chemical weapons,” he said, pointing out that Moscow has a military attaché as well as an ambassador in Israel.